Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Essential Research closes its account for the year by recording a slight improvement in the Coalition’s position, and a generally more positive outlook than in recent years.

The final Essential Research result for 2017 (actually released yesterday, but who’s keeping score at this time of year) has the Coalition gaining a point on two-party preferred for the second week in a row, reducing the Labor lead to 53-47. They’re also up two on the primary vote to 37%, with Labor steady on 38%, the Greens down one to 9% and One Nation steady on 7%.

Essential closes the year with a particularly interesting series of supplementary findings, one of which is that only 29% approve of tax cuts to medium and large businesses, with 54% opposed. On political donations, overwhelming support is recorded for immediate disclosure of donations (84% versus 6%) and politicians’ meetings with companies donors and unions (82% versus 5%), very strong support for a ban on foreign donations (67% to 16%), capping donations at $5000 (59% to 20%) and banning donations from companies and unions (58% to 22%), but opposition to banning donations altogether and replacing them with public funding (30% to 50%).

Another series of generalised questions on how things have been going over the past year suggest Australians are feeling a good deal more positive than they have at any time since this annual series began in 2013. In particular, there are greatly improved perceptions on the state of the economy; neutral but improved ones on respondents’ personal financial situations; greatly improved, but still somewhat negative ones on how “the average Australian” has fared; and a view on “Australian politics in general” that remains highly negative, but is still greatly improved. Included for the first time is a question on “the planet”, with 20% consider to have had a good year versus 42% for bad.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,526 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 4 of 51
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  2. #moreweatheronPB Here in the Secret Suburb of Brisbane (it’s actually the terminus of one of the train lines but 3/4 of Brisbanites have no idea where it is), I have the aircon on (ie, I’ve opened the front doors to the brisk sea-wind) and it’s 29 degrees with an apparent of about 27. Not that I want to skite – much!

  7. Blundering Barnaby

    Sky News Australia‏Verified account
    @SkyNewsAust

    .@tomwconnell reports dumped Nationals MP Keith Pitt was not contacted by Barnaby Joyce or his office over his demotion and he has not yet given an assurance about his future. More: http://bit.ly/2CGn3I2

  8. lizzie

    I hope he resigns from parliament next year the day before the sitting. Labor will be able to refer all members and would be great payback for Mr Pitt Or even just cross the floor on that vote. 🙂

  11. davidwh,

    If the next election is ‘normal’ (which I take to mean the HoR and half the Senate together), legally it must be held between the first Saturday in August 2018 and the last Saturday in June 2019. For practical purposes the window is a little narrower, ending in about late May 2019 in order to give enough time to count the votes for the Senate before the newly elected senators take their places on the first of July.

  13. “On the matter of the next election’s timing, I am expecting Turnbull to go for the most bizarre legal-loophole kind of option, just to show how cunning he is. This will especially be the case if it’s an option that everyone who knows what they’re talking about tries to warn him is a bad idea.

    Separate elections for the HoR and Senate are a real possibility.”

    I agree. Malcolm has form after all: the 2016 election; the fake survey / plebiscite.

  14. Fess

    Thats the point. I assume the woman is co host. I think the segment was promoting a calender for charity or a male revue style calander.

    Such serious journalism. 🙂

  16. davidwh says:
    Wednesday, December 20, 2017 at 11:22 am
    I have no better idea than anyone else when the next election will be held but think it will be a normal election

    Let’s hope so David 🙂

    Alternate theories are understandable. Turnbull seems to like playing silly buggers with the rules. I think he thinks it’s clever. So far he has prorogued parliament and cancelled a sitting week.

    Another thing that separates him from Howard, who would have regarded both as ‘not cricket’.

  21. zoomster/jackol/gt

    Whatever the longer term program for welfare is, adjustment to the basic unemployment and standard pension rates need urgent attention.

  22. Alice Workman‏Verified account @workmanalice · 11m11 minutes ago

    Farmer Dave (of Big Brother fame) went to school with new Agriculture Minister David Littleproud and says the MP was part of a culture of daily homophobic violence and abuse.

    Littleproud was one of four lower house MPs who voted against legalising ssm.

  25. For some years I worked in the Netherlands; they have lots of leave time available to them & it is Government policy to do so because if people can take a few days off or a week or two when they want to, then they are more productive. Furthermore the philosophy behind it is that life is not all about work, people should have time for hobbies (which many have), or any other pursuit that they choose and they will be happier for it.
    I also worked in the US for some years – just the opposite philosophy holds sway there.
    What was really obvious when comparing the two was US people work at ~75% capacity because they burn out otherwise, Netherland people work at full capacity because they know they can always take a day or two off if they feel burnout coming on.
    I think this result is also borne out in International productivity comparison tables between nations.

  29. Shellbell says:
    Wednesday, December 20, 2017 at 11:03 am
    Need some rain otherwise I can’t drive the stakes into the ground to keep the inflatable nativity scene stable.

    You could rent a piledriver:

    or if you know any professional wrestlers, see if they can help:

  30. lizzie

    The unemployment rate is so low I don’t understand how anyone who is unemployed, and has no access to other support, can keep a roof over their heads.

  32. Up until a few years ago, I was under the misapprehension that Newstart payments were fair. Turned out I was wrong. For a single person claiming Newstart allowance, it is about $245 per week. Of course, the amount is doubled if a couple are unemployed. If there are children, they will receive family benefit payments, which majority of families on average incomes are entitled to anyway.
    If paying a mortage, you are in deep shit. On the other hand, renters do get some type of rental assistance, although I have no idea how much this equates to.

  33. CTar1

    I wouldn’t do it myself, but it’s easy to understand why some unemployed turn to crime or drug-dealing. Then conservative govts pour more money into police and crime prevention. They can’t see the vicious circle they are encouraging.

  35. I should add that the average mortgage repayments equate to approx $450 per week.
    Rental for an average home is approx $420.00 per week in the outer suburbs of Melbourne,
    Puts the Newstart payment into some type of perspective.

  36. victoria

    Up to a certain limit (I think it’s around $250 a week), Centrelink pays half the rent. I think they also provide a bond loan for low income earners.

    Both my sons rent in Melbourne (Hawthorn and Box Hill) and manage easily – one even saves money.

  38. Welfare should be set to a basket of goods, not a $ figure, calculated by the same guys who calculate inflation (RBA? ABS? can never remember).

    This basket of goods should include the ability to buy a car that is X years old every Y years, renting a dwelling (with number of bedrooms = 1 for single or couple, plus 1 per child), no more than Z minutes travel from the CBD of a capital city (with each capital city’s importance weighted by population), a set diet chosen by an appropriate health body etc, money for fuel, utilities, clothes etc and a certain % buffer above these essentials for non essential goods.

    You can either organise that as a UBI, or by more traditional welfare. Obviously, under a UBI you need higher taxes because you are paying that BI to everyone, rather than just welfare recipients. So it works out pretty similar anyway.

  41. VE

    I heard it argued some years ago that poverty levels should be drawn up around what is the ‘norm’ – thus, if a normal person goes to Bali every year for their holiday, someone who can’t afford to do this is in poverty.

  42. Zoomster

    I know of someone who is currently unemployed and living with one teenage child. Between Newstart and family benefit payment, total weekly income is $400 per week. Fortunately, own home outright.
    It is not enough to live on to pay the bills. Council rates are due in February,and this alone is over $2,000.
    When you consider water bills, electricity, gas, phone, council rates, house and car insurance, registration and the like, there is no way someone can stay in that rate of pay for more than 6 months.

  46. I would have thought Chris Uhlmann could get a job with an electrical engineering firm. He seems to know a bit about the topic (sarcasm sign).

  47. “The NSW energy taskforce also released a report this week, urging the states to build their own clean energy targets.”

    Haha, that is classic. Pretty much the only state that needs urging is NSW.

    ACT – 100% by 2020
    Tas – 100% by 2022
    SA – 50% by 2025, already met.
    Qld – 50% by 2030.
    NT – 50% by 2030
    Vic – 40% by 2025
    NSW- No RET.
    WA – No RET.

  50. Melbourne City Planning makes big mistake.

    I wonder if after the PR flack Apple does something to help out the Indigenous community

    abcnews: Federation Square building to be demolished for Apple store ab.co/2BzI5sf pic.twitter.com/XdXdmmUsoa

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