New England by-election live

A New England by-election discussion thread, and (later) live commentary of the count.

9.25pm. Most booths in now. Labor’s primary vote swing has limped to 4%, while Joyce’s has remained in double figures and the two-party swing has settled at around 6%.

8.10pm. Now up from 66 to 74 booths counted out of 104, and Labor’s position seems to be slowly improving as larger booths report, their two-party swing now nudging up to 3.8% and the projected two-party swing to the Nationals now below 7%.

8.06pm. The ABC site has been a while updating.

7.31pm. The vote tally remains dominated by rural booths, but so far this is a remarkable result for Barnaby Joyce, and a troubling one for Labor, who have so far gained 1.9% with 24.1% available from Tony Windsor.

7.21pm. Actually, we do have the Hillvue booth from Tamworth, where Joyce’s swing is a below average 1.6%. The spread of non-Nationals votes is about the same though.

7.18pm. The only outstanding point of interest is whether we will see different patterns when results come in from Armidale and Tamworth.

7.11pm. It would seem a surprisingly high share of the Tony Windsor vote is going to Joyce, which it might have been thought would go to Rob Taber or Labor.

7.07pm. With 15 booths reporting out of 112, it’s rather impressive that Barnaby Joyce is projected to pick up a 10% two-party swing against Labor.

7.00pm. Antony Green now projecting Labor to run second, with a mere 8.2% of the primary vote, such is Joyce’s dominance. Surely though Labor couldn’t fail to improve on 2016 with Tony Windsor’s 22.6% up for grabs.

6.55pm. Turns out I wasn’t looking hard enough for the ABC’s booth level numbers, which are here.

6.52pm. There are now 12 booths in on the primary vote, and in the four I’ve looked at, Barnaby Joyce’s primary vote is up in all them, from a little to a lot. Antony Green is projecting 70.7% for Joyce on the primary vote, so I think it’s safe to say he’s not in trouble.

6.41pm. With two booths to work with, Antony Green projects a 71.6% Nationals 2PP, which inflates to 85.4% if he extracts a result from a third booth with primary vote numbers only by assuming preferences will flow as they did in the other two booths. So either the swing to the Nationals in the third booth is very strong, or the Nationals have done extremely well out of preferences in the first two booths – as it figures they would, since this is a strong Nationals area. All of which amounts to a lot of analysis of not very much.

6.36pm. Now there are two booths in on two-party, and the AEC is projecting a 71.55-28.45 win for Joyce over Labor, although Labor are actually running fourth though. Tiny booths though that will behave differently from the ones in the big towns.

6.33pm. Two very small rural booths in, and apparently Barnaby Joyce’s vote is up 8.1%. Beyond that there’s no booth-level reporting available anywhere, so I’m not going to be able to offer much depth of analysis.

6.17pm. An ALP activist on Twitter reports a 22% drop in turnout in Armidale South.

6pm. Polls have closed. Rural booths should start reporting very shortly indeed, probably inside half an hour.

6am. Barnaby Joyce’s moment of truth arrives today in the form of the New England by-election. Despite a certain amount of late campaign excitement, the by-election has not attracted much interest on the betting markets, with Ladbrokes continuing to rate Joyce an unbackable $1.01 favourite. My summary of the situation is here; live coverage of the count will commence at 6pm. Until then, here’s a thread for discussion.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

167 comments on “New England by-election live”

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  1. John Goss says:
    Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 8:58 pm
    Don
    Surely the dual citizenship byelection in Lindsay that Kelly won with a 5% swing to her is relevant. There aren’t many dual citizenship byelections, and it seems that the voters in those elections don’t believe the member should lose the seat because of an arcane technicality. In other sorts of byelections voters usually lodge a protest vote, so there is a swing against the Government candidate..

    Jesus H. Christ.

    Dual citizenship had nothing, zero, zilch, nada to do with this election result.

    Don’t be ridiculous. You have no idea what this electorate is like, obviously.

    You are using big city ideas in a rural electorate. Joyce suffered no setback, nor gained any positive effect, from his dual citizenship problems. None whatsoever. It was not on the radar. It played no part in his reelection. How else can I say it?

    There was a technicality, yes. Maybe it impinged on a few voters, but vanishingly few.

    But Joyce was their preferred candidate, for some stupid reason they had to vote him in again, so that is what they did.

    Do you seriously think the same logic applies to the contest in Bennelong? Come now.

  2. Oakeshott Country says:
    Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 9:07 pm
    the Lindsay by-election occurred when Howard’s popularity was at its peak. This by-election is in the context of a terminal government. i was not expecting a pro-government swing

    Then you can count yourself amongst those who have no idea of this electorate.

  3. OC
    I’m wondering if this isn’t actually an anti “perceived government” swing. Ie the people in New England are actually voting against what they perceive as an inevitable ALP government (which they’d really hate).

  4. “99.99% of the electors in New England who voted Joyce as #1 on their ballot paper would not know that such flexing existed. It would not be on their radar.

    They are national party voters. They vote for the national party. End of story.”

    Genuine question then – That being the case, how was Windsor elected?

  5. Don
    This does not surprise me. I am surprised there were vote 1 ballots for anybody other than Barnaby.
    Some of the sheep voters must have left their glasses at home.

  8. If Dual Citizenship is the reason for the by-election it does make a difference. Imagine if the reason for the Bennelong by-election was Alexander being appointed the Ambassador to Wimbeldon (sorry the UK). In that situation, Keneally would romp it in against a new LP candidate. But as it is, because its a dual citizenship election, its likely to be close.
    PS I grew up in the country so I know something of these electorates.

  9. Then you can count yourself amongst those who have no idea of this electorate.

    That is a bit rich when you didn’t exactly chance your arm saying that there would be a pro-government swing before the polls closed.

  11. joeldipops says:
    Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 9:11 pm
    “99.99% of the electors in New England who voted Joyce as #1 on their ballot paper would not know that such flexing existed. It would not be on their radar.

    They are national party voters. They vote for the national party. End of story.”

    Genuine question then – That being the case, how was Windsor elected?

    He was a popular National party candidate in state politics who was shafted by the National Party, and made his feelings known in no uncertain terms. He became the state member, as an independent. Never underestimate the quality of Tony Windsor.

    When he ran for the federal seat, he was up against a very poor candidate, Stuart St Clair, for the Nationals, who was seen as ineffective. He won.

    This was a huge shock. The National Party aka the Country Party, had held New England since 1922.

    Game over. Once Windsor was in, that was it. He was seen as the National Party candidate you have when you don’t have a credible National Party candidate.

    In similar vein, some time ago now, we had a state Labor MP here, Bill McCarthy, who was described with grudging respect as ‘The best National Party Member we ever had here’.

  12. And you’ll note that Windsor’s support tanked once he backed Gillard. He was a warning to the Nats that they couldn’t take New England for granted, and they wanted the moneybuckets to keep coming, not an ideological shift. And that’s despite the fact that Windsor kept the moneybuckets coming with renewables investment and the NBN.

  14. caf says:
    Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 9:18 pm
    Then you can count yourself amongst those who have no idea of this electorate.

    _______________________________
    That is a bit rich when you didn’t exactly chance your arm saying that there would be a pro-government swing before the polls closed.

    Not rich at all. I did chance my arm. I said that Barnaby was a shoo-in for this election.

    Go check the records.

    And don’t be such a dill, if that is possible.

  15. Go check the records.

    I did, in fact, check the records in this thread, where you said no such thing (at least, in so many words). Anyway, predicting Barnaby would win is a far cry from predicting a pro-government swing, which is what you excoriated the other conversationalist for admitting they did not predict.

    Don’t be so rude, if that is possible

  17. Oakeshott Country says:
    Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 9:17 pm
    Don
    having once been the ALP candidate for an adjoining electorate I think I have some idea

    Did you win, and demonstrate that you had some idea?

    No, you got 26.29% of the primaries in Cowper, which is a coastal electorate, with nothing remotely like the same demographics.

    Seriously?

    Give me a break.

  19. @don

    No they do not live in democracy at all if they keep voting for LNP/National Party/One Nation.

    They are all from same bunch.

    More elections won by LNP than Labor.

  20. caf says:
    Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 9:37 pm

    (don said) Go check the records.

    (caf said)

    __________
    I did, in fact, check the records in this thread, where you said no such thing (at least, in so many words). Anyway, predicting Barnaby would win is a far cry from predicting a pro-government swing, which is what you excoriated the other conversationalist for admitting they did not predict.

    You are not very good at checking records, are you?

    Here ya go:


    grimace says:
    Saturday, October 14, 2017 at 11:12 pm
    don @ #814 Saturday, October 14th, 2017 – 4:21 pm

    C@tmomma

    Hi don,
    There was talk yesterday from the Nats up your way that the locals are so pissed off at having to likely go to a By-election to re-elect, ‘local boy’ and Deputy Prime Minister Barnaby Joyce, that Tony Windsor may not even run against him because BJ’s Primary Vote would only become greater than at the last election as a result.

    Is that what you’re hearing on the ground?
    ____________

    (don)
    Barnaby is a shoo in.

    Most people up here resent having to vote at all for anything, whether it be local, state or federal. The donkey vote is real, but for Barnaby they will make an exception.

    I’ve said it before, I’ll say it again. Up here, the sheep vote.

    I heard a story recently of a woman who married the son of a local grazier, and she was told firmly at the wedding reception that from now on, of course, she would vote National.

    (grimace):

    ___________________
    I agree with Don’s assessment.

    There are some family friends of my in-laws who are reasonably senior within the WA Nationals and before the WA election we were talking about campaigning, and he told me, quite sincerely, words to the effect that “the Nationals don’t need a field campaign, people down here know what we do for them, we know they’ll vote for us and we don’t need to actively get out into the community and campaign.”

    Mostly he’s right.

    _________

  21. Your last post shows that you believe that I am Rob Oakeshott and that he was the Labor candidate in Cowper. Doesn’t say much for you understanding of the politics of regional NSW

  23. Hey Will, have you noticed the general level of spitefulness on the blog increase in the last day or two. Can you inject some Prozac into it somehow? Or will it pass when the trough passes and the weather returns to normal?

  24. Oakeshott Country says:
    Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 9:55 pm
    Your last post shows that you believe that I am Rob Oakeshott and that he was the Labor candidate in Cowper. Doesn’t say much for you understanding of the politics of regional NSW

    So which electorate did you contest?

    And what was the result?

  25. Lyne
    The chance of Labor winning Lyne is the same as winning New England but at least we get into the high 30s low 40s on 2PP

  26. zoidlord says:
    Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 9:56 pm
    Don running scare campaign for Nationals

    Anyone who thinks that anything said on this blog has any relevance to what happens in the real world has rocks in their head.

    But at least I can face reality in this electorate. Nationals, in general, are elected here, pace Tony Windsor.

  27. don: I said I checked the records in this thread, where you did in fact post before the close of polls and had ample opportunity to impart your incredible local wisdom but apparently chose not to.

    “Barnaby is a shoo-in” reads to me as a prediction he’d win, not a prediction of a pro-government swing.

  28. I dunno about this, there’s been a few state by-elections in NSW for ultra safe National seats and they’ve ranged from a decent swing against the sitting National to ludicrous, nearly record swings against the sitting member and the loss of a seat to the Shooters, Fishers and Farmers.

    Basically, I see this as a reaction to power. People in rural electorates feel that the relationship between the Nationals and Canberra is fair or at least tolerable. But they felt the relationship in Macquarie St was too far slanted to the rich urban elite of the Liberals, and while they probably feel Turnbull’s a bit of a dill they thought Baird a charlatan at best.

    I do think it gives Turnbull a little bit of political capital, not a huge amount, but something he hasn’t had for a while. I give him no hope of spending it wisely, of course.

  29. Put a cowboy hat on and swill a couple of pints in the front bar. A winning formula in New England.

    John Howard tried but didn’t quite look the part. Who was it who described him as resembling “a sawn-off roofing nail”?

  30. zoidlord says:
    Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 9:52 pm
    @don

    No they do not live in democracy at all if they keep voting for LNP/National Party/One Nation.

    They are all from same bunch.

    More elections won by LNP than Labor.

    You have a very strange idea of democracy.

    If you keep voting for LNP/National Party/One Nation that means that there is no democracy?

    Bring in one party government, I say! Labor only!

    Only then will we have true democracy!

  34. PuffyTMD says:
    Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 10:16 pm
    we are talking New England

    Hey, lambs!

    Better cull those black ones, if we are talking New England!

  35. The preference distribution is interesting. Joyce got 63.6% of first preferences, and Ewing (ALP) got 11.3%. That left 25.1% to be distributed. Joyce got only 9.4 percentage points out of the 25.1% and Labor got 15.7 percentage points, taking the ALP up to 27% of the 2PP. I would have thought Joyce would have got a greater proportion of the odds and sods especially given a number were right wing groups. So I do think there is some dissatisfaction with Joyce in these results.

    By the way this is not the biggest positive byelection swing as claimed by Anthony. In McPerson in 1981 after the death of the member EL Robinson, the new member PVD White gained a swing of 16.2% in the byelection

  39. Don
    I remember out on the sheep stations, any trace of other colour wool in the bale was a disaster and condemned the whole bail as lesser value.

    So any black or other coloured sheep were shorn last after all the other wool was bailed up. These fleeces were sold to artisan spinners and weavers.

  40. That is why the FTTN NBN the great equaliser. Even those who do not deserve it got it.

    Oh well, you can lead a horse to water but is another thing to give it an enema.

  42. McPherson by-election was not quite the same. The death of Robinson allowed the Country Party to enter a 3 cornered contest and when Labor came 3rd the 2PP was between the 2 government parties. By preferencing the Liberal over the brilliant Dr Glenn Shiels Labor boosted the Government majority.

  43. I’m jumping on here without having read all the comments but I have to because I’m so pissed off – what is wrong with these people? I grew up in the country, but how can people vote for Joyce? He just wants to stuff over country people with his pal Gina. What is wrong with people?

  44. While slightly surprised at the strength of Barnyard’s vote today, I’m not at all surprised that he has been comfortably re-elected. Section 44, in all it’s variety, has caused a few by-elections over the last few decades, and on each occasion the disqualified incumbent has been returned with an increased majority. For all the talk about the rights and wrongs of s44, whether the voters have had a chance to have a say, they have made it clear that they aren’t too bothered by it. Indeed, it appears that Jo Public is a little annoyed at being asked to vote in by-election called upon a pointless technicality. I would not be at all surprised to see Alexander returned comfortably in a couple of weeks for the same reason, though admittedly that’s a closer seat normally, and Labor is taking that contest a little more seriously.

    The New England result means very little in the greater scheme of things, and will soon be forgotten.

  48. > “Section 44, in all it’s variety, has caused a few by-elections over the last few decades, and on each occasion the disqualified incumbent has been returned with an increased majority.”

    There have been exactly two byelections (including New England), not a “a few”.

    Two is not an adequate sample size to prove anything.

  49. Since Windsor didn’t stand it’s not really possible to talk of “swings” as if they have any relative meaning compared to the 2016 vote.

    Having said that, it is obvious Windsor didn’t feel the situation benefitted him, at least not to the 9% he required, but he would have made the swing comparison academically interesting, as opposed to meaningless.

    Windsor has correctly observed that he is better off targeting the senate.

  50. The horrible message from New England is that if there is a swing away from the Nats recently it has been further to the right (Earth Fuckers Party). The Earth Fuckers did not run in the New England election.
    By way of comparison, over at Bennelong, a small slew of far right micro parties are going to chew into the right vote. Like the Greens Party/Labor Party, these will bleed energy out of the mainstream right campaign and they will bleed preferences out of the Liberals and into Labor.

    The two big games in town for the next Federal election will be for the Liberals and the Nationals to try and stave off damage from PHON, Bernardi and Co and for Labor to try and stave off damage from the Greens Party.

    Whichever major manages that game the best will form the next government.

    As a corollary, whichever minor party does most damage to its nearest ideological neighbour will help their ideological enemies gain government.

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