10.31pm. The LNP has a good batch of 4658 votes on the way in Pumicestone, having performed strongly on the primary vote in the main pre-poll booth (a 34.7% to 32.7% lead, compared with a 36.3% to 29.3% lead to Labor overall). So Labor’s raw two-party lead of 309 may not hold for long.
In Pumicestone, the LNP has a primary vote lead in the main pre-poll booth, which has yet to come through on two-party preferred.
10.12pm. Now absolutely lineball in Gaven.
10.06pm. “Not a done deal”, says independent Margaret Strelow of her bid for Rockhampton, which I’ve been inclining to think will succeed.
9.49pm. So let’s try yet again. Labor has surely gained Aspley and Redlands. It leads in Gaven and Pumicestone; a lot hinges on a Pumicestone pre-poll result that should come through shortly. Either Labor or the Greens should win Maiwar. It has surely lost Bundaberg, presumably lost Rockhampton and Mirani, and I would think likely to lose Burdekin. I have no idea at all about Thuringowa, but Labor rep Steven Miles sounds confident. If all go, another two losses will cost them their majority, plus one for each they don’t win out of Gaven, Pumicestone and Maiwar. Such losses might be suffered in Cook or Macalister, and the latter seems unlikely.
9.39pm. Torres Strait Island booths perhaps saving Labor in Cook, their primary vote up from about 33% to 39.3%.
9.31pm. Labor’s precarious leads in Gaven and Pumicestone narrowed in the latest updates.
9.29pm. Antony Green is putting a somewhat higher likelihood on a hung parliament than I have been.
9.07pm. So now Bonney is only a maybe, let’s go round again. Labor gains: Aspley and Redlands. Possible further Labor gains: Gaven, Bonney and Pumicestone. Losses: Bundaberg, Rockhampton, Mirani, maybe Thuringowa and Cook, probably not Macalister. So there’s three they could win, three they could lose, and they’ll scrape a majority together if they win half of them.
9.04pm. Antony wasn’t kidding: Bonney pre-poll booth went 58-42 to LNP, and now it’s lineball.
8.58pm. Antony notes that the addition of large pre-poll booths in the Gold Coast seats, importantly Gaven and Bonney, could shake things up there.
8.51pm. The ABC now has Labor tipping into a slight lead in Pumicestone.
8.50pm. Another seat I’ve neglected due to my focus on a potential Labor majority is Hinchinbrook, which the LNP might lose to Katter’s Australian Party.
8.44pm. South Brisbane closer than I realised.
8.38pm. And now I’ve overlooked Burdekin, a technical Labor seat that’s a three-way heat on the primary vote. Labor only wins if One Nation comes third and delivers them a majority of preferences, which Labor can hope to happen because they have directed them their way.
8.31pm. Scratch that — I had overlooked Redlands. So Labor has probably four gains, maybe a fifth, perhaps six if it’s they who win Maiwar. Against that, four losses seem likely, and two possible. So it’s only the worst case scenario that costs Labor a net two seats and their majority.
8.19pm. The big question to me seems to be whether Labor gets a majority, so I’m tending to downplay features of the count such as the LNP’s apparent loss of Noosa to independent. With a net loss of two to cost them their majority, it now seems clear they will add to that Aspley, Bonney and probably Gaven; Pumicestone, which on this metric is an LNP seat, is too close to call. If they don’t win Pumicestone, the question is, do they lose five seats? It’s happened in Bundaberg and, it seems, Rockhampton. They seem to me at serious risk of losing Mirani and Thuringowa to One Nation. So if all that’s right, Labor needs to hang on in both Cook and Macalister if they don’t win Pumicestone, and either if they do. Caveat: I’m probably missing something.
8.18pm. Cook looks complicated, and not to be called. Labor 32.4%, One Nation 21.3%, Katter’s 20.0%, LNP 19.6%. Could go Katter’s or One Nation if the stars align.
8.15pm. Labor can no longer be regarded as home in Pumicestone either, so the potential window for minority status is a little wider now.
8.13pm. There was a lot of money late in the campaign on Hetty Johnston in Macalister, and it now emerges she is indeed a show of reducing the LNP to third, and overtaking Labor on preferences.
8.00pm. Thinking through the Labor situation again. Labor starts on 48 seats out of 93, a majority with one to spare. Gains: Aspley and Redlands. Possible gains: Bonney, Gaven, Maiwar. Losses: Bundaberg, Rockhampton. Possible further losses to One Nation: Mirani and Thuringowa. So there is a path to minority status there if everything goes wrong, but it’s a narrow one.
7.57pm. Labor has just poked ahead in Mundingburra on the ABC projection. It was earlier calling it for the LNP, which was another result that didn’t seem to gel.
7.45pm. The ABC has also retracted its call of Chatsworth for the LNP; and it now has Labor back in front in Bonney. Labor has almost certainly won Pumicestone, Redlands and Aspley; are in the hunt in Gaven; will win Maiwar if the Greens don’t. But they have lost Bundaberg (ABC says Pumicestone too but I think that’s wrong) to the LNP, Rockhampton to an independent; and they could lose Mirani to One Nation. I think they are now safe from One Nation in Maryborough and Thuringowa. They are apparently safe in South Brisbane. There are some confusing calls on the ABC computer that I don’t trust; if I’m right about those, I’m not seeing where Labor falls below 48.
7.44pm. A turn for the worse for Labor in Gold Coast counting: the ABC has gone back on its call of Theodore for Labor, Bonney is being called a notional LNP retain, and the Labor lead in Gaven has all but vanished.
7.43pm. The LNP is looking good to hold marginal Whitsunday, despite One Nation preferencing against them.
7.40pm. Pretty sure the ABC’s call of Murrumba for the LNP is a bug. The call of Callide for KAP appears to be based on a redundant two-party count, as the KAP is running fourth on the primary vote.
7.39pm. And now Aspley, where early results were discouraging for Labor, is lineball as well.
7.38pm. Labor are starting to find the seats they need: well ahead in Redlands.
7.36pm. The ABC making some big calls for Labor on the Gold Coast: Gaven and Theodore.
7.34pm. So Maiwar could go either Greens or Labor, but not LNP.
7.32pm. Independent Sandra Bolton perhaps coming from nowhere (to me at least) and perhaps winning Noosa, with less than 5% counted. South Brisbane still close.
7.28pm. One Nation looking better in Thuringowa: Katter preferences should get them over the LNP, and LNP preferences might then do it for them. So I’m seeing potential One Nation ones in Mirani, Maryborough and now Thuringowa, all at the expense of Labor. With Labor also looking to lose Bundaberg, they will need to find at least a handful of seats in the south-east. I’m seeing three so far — but the situation is, to say the least, fluid.
7.26pm. Was about to say I didn’t trust the ABC’s call of Mundingburra for the LNP, and it’s now switched to Labor ahead. This looks like a fizzer for One Nation.
7.19pm. ABC computer now calling Maiwar, Chatsworth and Glass House for Labor. But they’re losing Bundaberg to the LNP, and trailing One Nation in Maryborough and possibly Mirani.
7.18pm. Tim Nicholls cutting it fine in Clayfield: 27.8% counted, 6.0% swing, 6.6% margin.
7.16pm. The ABC’s call of Callide for KAP is, I think it’s fair to say, a false alarm.
7.15pm. ABC calling Bundaberg an LNP gain from Labor.
7.12pm. Some encouraging signs for Labor on the Gold Coast: big swing in unwinnable Broadwater, early lead in Gaven.
7.11pm. LNP looking good in Lockyer, Condamine, Gregory, Hinchinbrook and Nanango, and they should be okay in Gympie. Mirani and Maryborough might go to One Nation, but I’m not seeing any others.
7.08pm. ABC computer calling Maryborough for One Nation. However, this is based on a very small number of two-party votes (492 of them), when Labor is well ahead on the much more advanced primary vote count.
7.06pm. Good early result for Labor in Chatsworth, defying my earlier talk of a subdued swing in LNP-held seats in Brisbane.
7.04pm. A close three-way result in Burdekin. If Labor goes out, LNP wins. If LNP goes out, One Nation wins. If One Nation goes out, hard to say.
7.03pm. With 7% counted, Labor looking precarious in Bundaberg, perhaps to be sunk by preferences from third-placed One Nation.
7.00pm. Steve Dickson doesn’t look like retaining Buderim for One Nation; primary vote looking good for LNP.
6.58pm. Antony Green now confirming solid flow of Labor preferences to LNP in Lockyer.
6.57pm. One Nation have fallen to second in Gympie; could still win Mirani on LNP preferences. The ABC computer is calling Mirani for Labor, but it’s doing so on an Labor-versus-LNP basis. We will have to wait on a preference count tomorrow to know what’s really happening here.
6.51pm. Labor seems to be picking up swings in metropolitan seats it already holds, but not so much in LNP seats: early swing to LNP in Aspley, Mansfield and Redlands, small swing to LNP with over 10% counted in Everton.
6.48pm. Only about 300 votes, but preferences in Lockyer suggest Labor is quite heavily favouring the LNP over One Nation, by 64-36.
6.46pm. With over 10% of the primary vote counted, One Nation still not looking all that strong in Lockyer.
6.45pm. No booths from the town yet, but One Nation leads the early count in Gympie.
6.42pm. First booth in Rockhampton is encouraging for Margaret Strelow: she’s clear of the LNP and could win with their preferences.
6.40pm. One Nation looking dangerous in Mirani: with 6% counted, they’re well clear of the LNP and looking well placed to win on their preferences.
6.34pm. The LNP are ahead of One Nation in Lockyer and Burnett, but it’s hard to work out what preferences are doing.
6.27pm. We have nearly 2000 votes in from places where One Nation would be expected to poll very strongly, and they’re on 23.4%, which is perhaps a bit on the lower side.
6.15pm. More on that Nine exit poll in the Sydney Morning Herald (thanks ltep):
The Nine Network/Galaxy exit poll of 1700 people across 18 seats in metropolitan and regional Queensland suggested Ms Palaszczuk will edge out Liberal National Party leader Tim Nicholls and win 51 seats, enough to form a majority government in the expanded 93-member parliament.
The poll suggested that Labor led the LNP 52-48 in the two-party preferred vote, a result in line with recently published opinion polls; expected Labor losses in regional centres such as Townsville will be offset by gains in the major population centre of south-east Queensland.
6.10pm. An exit poll for Nine predicts a Labor win, but that’s all I can tell you about it. A ReachTEL poll for Sky News apparently has it at 52-48 – I believe this is a regular ReachTEL poll that was conducted today, rather than an exit poll proper.
6pm. Polling has closed, so let the live coverage begin. This being Queensland, we should expect a flurry of small regional booths in fairly shortly.
Bloody hell, flipped over to 24 and it is funereal amongst the ABC/LNP panel.
Steve777 and Asha
It is possible that it could be conservatives who are against the Adani policy, or someone with interest in the tourism industry that could be affected by the Great Barrier Reef being damaged.
Clem Attlee @ #300 Saturday, November 25th, 2017 – 10:00 pm
What’s more, he’s skiting that Labor will win on LNP preferences. Ignores the fact that LNP finished finished third. He’s an odious idiot.
Please, Will or anyone else – in seats like Cook and Callide where KAP and ON both have signif numbers of votes, do we have any historical evidence of how their prefs fall? They both represent the “alienated from the major parties” sector but do they each regard the other as second best or do they hate each others’ guts? A few outcomes will depend on this.
“Give Christensen his separate state.
We can call it Alabama.”
As a resident of Dawson I do not wish to live in Alabama. Can we just send George to the southern US for some diplomatic post or something?
My theory would be that when an environmental issue is front and centre in peoples’ minds – Adani in this case – there are a number of traditionally LNP voting types (the mythical Drs Wives perhaps) who feel that the environment actually needs protection and will change their vote because of the issue to make a statement but wouldn’t then feel comfortable letting their vote go to the ALP (and given how the ALP have vacillated on this specific issue that is perhaps understandable).
If Labor loses Rockhampton to Margaret Strelow, they’ve only got themselves to blame for it.
Honestly, whoever in Labor thought that it was a good idea to shun a fairly popular Mayor for some nobody no-one’s ever heard of as Labor candidate needs a good kick in the pants.
Green predicts Strelow will win.
Good evening all,
Has anyone mentioned the possibility of Mt Ommaney going to labor ?
Cheers.
Looks like the Cross River Rail could potentially be compromised.
doyley
I thought Mt Ommaney is pretty clear.
@doyley – Mt Ommaney was redistributed into a nominal 1% margin for Labor, so I think that was already in the count of Labor seats (i.e. a /hold/ not a /gain/).
Just heard Strelow interviewed and she would not get near Labor preselection here in Victoria, as she sounds very, very right wing. Was Labor but now says she’s open to doing a deal with the Tories. Says it all about her, she’s just an opportunists.
No question that Labor has won Mt Ommaney and Mansfield (the two in Brisbane they got via redistribution).
Thanks to all for the replies.
Cheers
So I think everyone has at least 42 solid Labor seats at this point. To that we have Labor leans in Gaven, Macalister, Mundingburra, Thuringowa, Cook and Pumicestone, which gets them to 48. Maiwar and Rockhampton are still serious possibilities for Labor. So I suspect we’re looking at 47-48.
I don’t see Labor being eager to cut inner city (like Cross River Rail) funding with the Green vote where it is. They are in a bit of a bind there.
Is the Queensland 2017 Election the most clear evidence of Liberal voters moving to the Greens in large numbers?
This seems a startling development in Australian politics. As the Liberal moderates fracture from the conservatives, the Greens are ridding themselves of their ‘reds’.
It all seems very fertile ground for stronger future alliances. Very intriguing.
Queenslanders
Queenslanders
Queenslanders
Queenslanders
Queenslanders
I don’t think it’s that simple, DQ.
There might be voters normally voting LNP not too happy with Tim Nichols or with LNP not wanting to completely rule out ONP. Come next election, they might just return to LNP depending on the situation.
There’s no reason to believe that it’s not labor voters going green and LNP voters going to the labor party.
Clem Attlee
I suspect Strelow’s bullshitting with the whole, ‘Oh I’m thinking about deals with either side’ spiel.
She’s been trying to get preselected as a Labor candidate for years now, she ran here essentially as a Labor candidate and Rockhampton’s a really, really anti-LNP city.
If she makes a deal with Nicholls, her voters will go stampede back to Labor at the next election (including myself).
Raaraa,
This is a significant amount of votes, not just in one seat but tens of thousands across a range of seats.
Nothing simplistic about this. Moderate Liberal supporters are comfortable voting for the Greens. The question needs to be asked, why is this and what will be the implications for both parties?
What a goose Canavan is. There are no Greens seats.
We can’t infer that from the results, DQ. We can tell where the swing are, but it could be swing voters going from LNP to ALP or ALP to GRN or LNP to ONP or ALP to ONP, however, we can’t know that. We can only see where the swing is for each party.
Possum Comitatus @Pollytics
13m13 minutes ago
Unfortunately the ‘word of the month’ in Qld will be “recount”
Funny how the Tories raise the spectre of a Labor minority government doing deals .
When the federal parliament next sits Turnbull will be relying on a deal with independents to maintain his control of the house.
Dunno why the media obsesses about minority government and coalitions.
It is ok for the Libs and Nats and it works in many countries around the world.
The much maligned Gillard government seemed to get its legislation passed.
What is going on in Bonney? ABC has just pulled it back into doubt but is also showing LNP clearly ahead on 52.9%. Is this the whole unclear pre-poll situation messing with the prediction?
Premier’s speech – vid clip here
https://twitter.com/7NewsSC/status/934399367569485827
http://www.abc.net.au/news/qld-election-2017/guide/bonn/
Says 10 vote difference
Catprog,
The numbers look suspect in TPP. LNP primary votes exceed that of LNP TPP votes.
Frickeg
Might be unclear off preferential elimination too. A provisional 2PP lead can change. But I don’t think that would be the case here, without a strong 3rd party , full preferences should sort to the provisional count in the end.
I suspect Pumicestone will tip back to the LNP when the Pumicestone Pre-Poll result comes in on two-party preferred.
ABC has just given Mundingburra to Labor, getting them to 43.
All over red rover for me.All pretty confident on Sky news that Labor has won.
Raaraa
I think the TPP count is behind the first preference count.
All that tripe about ON fizzled out just like Turnbull.
Canavan goes from bizarre to ‘bizarrer.’ Nicholls has done so, so well. He’s lost this election, but he’s made Labor sweat. Labor get too much money from the unions too. He’s a nut… he should be in One Nation. How is this clown a member of federal cabinet? It’s a good thing that I’m a man of principle, because I reckon if I joined the Nats, I’d be deputy PM by now. They are a party full of half wits.
Swing against LNP 7.1% so far overall.
Nicholls now up.
Was Nicholls ever a used car salesmen? He has all the sincerity of one.
So counting has stopped for tonight?
KAP hit a preference deal with ON.
The LNP preferenced ON in 50 seats.
The ALP is still in position to form government.
ON gets close to nil.
Shocking how anyone can say this is a good result for the LNP. So keen to point out how the ALP fell short, yet choose to ignore the decline in their own PV.
On another note, I was fairly surprised about Aspley.
Nicholls making campaign speech. Does he know votes are in?
What, Nicholls saying that Labor were unfair in insisting on a majority government or nothing. What are these loons on… completely irrational? Sounds like a campaign speech… hey idiot the polls are closed and the election is over.
Confessions @ #340 Saturday, November 25th, 2017 – 10:47 pm
The cheer squad being given very little to cheer about. Nicholls now offering more of the same that lost him voters. Political genius.
And if Strelow wins in Rocky, how many hours (minutes?) until she’s invited to rejoin the party? And Schwarto will just have to STFU…
Nicholls taking a leaf out of Turnbulls book for waffling. Does this bloke ever shut up.Probably will resign after defeat in a couple of days time.
If this is typical Nicholls I know why the LNP vote went down
Anastasia: Labor is confident of a majority
Nicholls: Labor cannot win a majority
One of them must be wrong?