Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

A slight move back to the Coalition on voting intention, and another finding of a resounding victory for yes in the same sex marriage survey.

As related by The Guardian, Essential Research’s fortnight rolling average result for this week has Labor’s two-party lead at 53-47, down from 54-46 last week. As usual we will have to wait until Essential releases the full report later today for the primary votes.

On the same sex marriage survey, an excessive 86% report having voted, of whom 64% say they voted yes, 31% no, and the rest declining to answer. On the question of support for “an indigenous voice to parliament”, 45% expressed support with 16% opposed, while 47% expressed support for an indigenous treaty, with 16% opposed.

Also featured is the latest in the pollster’s semi-regular series on party attributes, with results similar to those from the previous outing in March. Even the Liberal Party’s rating as “divided” is unchanged at 68%, although it is down six points on being “too close to the big corporate and financial interests”, now at 65%. Labor’s biggest change looks to be a six point drop for “moderate”, to 52%. If I understand the report correctly, the Liberal Party is up six on this measure to 53%.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,743 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. briefly @ #1553 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 7:50 pm

    Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull has threatened to break with longstanding precedent and use the government’s slim majority to refer any Labor MPs under a citizenship cloud to the High Court.

    This certainly illustrates why an “audit”, instituted by the majority, would likely only lead to attempts by the majority to use their strength unseat members of the minority, thereby thwarting the results of elections and undermining the Parliament. Fwiw, it was the apprehension of this sort of thing that led the Parliament to decide in 1910 to refer s44 matters to the HC.

    This is a shambolic spectacle that ill-serves the public interest. No-one will come out of this looking good. Instead, the 12-15-18 million dual citizens of Australia (who knows how many there actually are?) will have been lectured by sundry nationalists on their allegedly innate disloyalty and misplaced allegiance.

    This part of the Constitution should be reformed.

    Utter rubbish again.
    Many in the ‘ethnic community’ support the principle, if not the detail, of S44(i) and agree that MPs should be citizens of Australia only.

  2. KayJay – I’m using Win10/Chrome.

    Is your comment 1607 Zoomster’s post to Confessions starting “No, fess, it’s been that way for over twenty years. …’?

    I’ve posted and used ‘reload ‘ a couple of times since but the gap persists.

    I’ll try a ‘refresh’ and see what happens.


  4. Ides of March says:
    Thursday, November 9, 2017 at 6:48 pm

    If Mal refers LAB mps, im not sure if there would be enought support in the senate for Lab to refer Lib/Nat senators

    Every losing candidate has an interest in the validity of the winner to stand. I don’t think it will need the senate to refer. If that be the case then Turnbull’s threat, if carried out is check; the next step is checkmate and Turnbull loses.

  9. CTar1 @ #1652 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 9:25 pm

    KayJay – I’m using Win10/Chrome.

    Is your comment 1607 Zoomster’s post to Confessions starting “No, fess, it’s been that way for over twenty years. …’?

    I’ve posted and used ‘reload ‘ a couple of times since but the gap persists.

    I’ll try a ‘refresh’ and see what happens.

    zoomster (Block)
    Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 8:35 pm
    Comment #1607

    No, fess, it’s been that way for over twenty years. I’ve known many, many candidates in that position. Each of them had to come to an arrangement similar to the kinds I described.

    Yes, indeedy, as shown above. Windows 10 Firefox and Chrome.

    Good luck. I am also having problems with the quote function truncating some of the post.
    A problem for tomorrow, methinks.
    😴😴

  10. Gawd I haven’t had a chiko roll in yonks and had no idea they were still a thing.

    Ah Qld, always there to remind us that numptyville never dies.

  11. CTar1 @ #1630 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 7:30 pm

    I haven’t noticed this before –

    * C+ issued comment numbers skipping 1601-1606; or
    * 5 comments not displayed.

    poroti (Block)
    Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 8:34 pm
    Comment #1600
    Confessions

    Top idea !

    Next displayed –

    zoomster (Block)
    Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 8:35 pm
    Comment #1607
    No, fess, it’s been that way for over twenty years. …

    If you have C+ installed, and have blocked any posters (and they are logged in), then their posts and post numbers don’t show up at all, and the comment numbering just jumps over them to the next unblocked post number.

  12. briefly @ #1575 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 8:08 pm

    Among the basic promises of democracy are that any person who is eligible to vote will also be eligible to propose themselves for election; and that those who comprise the legislature will derive their standing, tenure and legitimacy from the results of fair elections, and not from anything else.

    We have come to a very sad pass, a pass where elections are being overturned on the basis of an arbitrary, phobic, jingoist and archaic legalism.

    More hyperbole.
    Any person eligible to vote can make themselves eligible to contest an election by renouncing any dual citizenship, putting themselves on an equal citizenship status with all other candidates.

  14. To my mind, a sensible reform option for the dual-citizen prohibition in s44 would be to replace it with a provision (probably as ordinary legislation in the Electoral Act) that any nomination must include the place of birth of the candidate and their parents, and any foreign citizenships known to be held.

    That makes everything as transparent as possible; it is then up to the voters to decide if the candidate’s allegiance is in doubt.

  16. Chiko Roll

    At the peak of its popularity in the 1960s and 1970s, 40 million Chiko Rolls were sold annually in Australia. The product has been described as an Australian cultural icon.

    I’ve never liked seafood, so when Mum proposed having a fish and chip night I would often have a chiko.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chiko_Roll

  17. zoomster @ #1607 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 8:35 pm

    No, fess, it’s been that way for over twenty years. I’ve known many, many candidates in that position. Each of them had to come to an arrangement similar to the kinds I described.

    Eric Abetz did a google search leading up to one of the Federal elections and claimed that several Labor candidates were ineligible precisely for this reason.

    It goes back much longer than that, at least 50 years.

  18. JM

    No ‘blocking’ from me.

    Using ‘refresh’ has now made the missing appear!

    Poroti’s comment now 1606 –

    poroti (Block)
    Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 8:34 pm
    Comment #1606
    Confessions

    Top idea !

    I recall that I had to click on ‘load more’ a second time. It may have something to do with the end of ‘page’ i.e 1600 last of one ‘page’.

    Anyway, no huge deal and surprised that I noticed at all.

  20. caf:

    If we simply did away with S44i would the sky fall in as many here imagine?

    And furthermore I’m open to a dialogue about reforming other S44 clauses as well, notably those pertaining to holding paid office, bankruptcy, and in some instances clause v.

  21. Tweet –

    Crossbencher Rebekah Sharkie says the Prime Minsiter personally rang her earlier today, saying she might have to refer herself to the High Court…

    I’d bet it’s the first phone call Rebekah Sharkie has ever received from Turnbull and this one a definite ‘F#ck off and die’ one!

  25. I’m okay with paid office so long as it’s terminated upon election. Frankly I find the work arounds illustrated here for the public service to be significantly more morally compromised than requiring termination upon election.

    Ditto for any other indirect profit from the executive.

    I’d also ban assumption of any such offices / arrangements after holding office for a reasonable period to ensure propriety.

  27. Does this ‘Adam Gartrell’ guy think that the Pommie Civil Service will jump to attention and rush around to check the indexes and answer John Alexander’s request because ‘Adam Gartrell’ wants to know?

    Adam Gartrell‏ Verified account @adamgartrell · 41m41 minutes ago

    72 hours since we broke the John Alexander story and he still doesn’t have any advice from the UK? I don’t buy it #auspol

  28. briefly @ #1562 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 7:08 pm

    Among the basic promises of democracy are that any person who is eligible to vote will also be eligible to propose themselves for election

    In the U.S. at least, that’s manifestly untrue. You’re eligible to vote from the age of 18. However you can’t run for the House until you’re 25. It’s 30 for the Senate, and the Presidency has a minimum age of 35.

    For your promise to be fulfilled, the U.S. would have to deny anyone under the age of 35 the right to vote. However, my hunch is that it’s generally the case that people running for high office need to clear a higher bar than people who just want to vote in elections.

  29. Asha Leu Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 7:55 pm Comment #1552

    Has Turnbull lost his goddamn mind? I can’t envision any scenario where referring Labor MPs to the HC won’t blow up completely in his face. Shorten and Labor have nothing to lose here.

    “Has Turnbull lost his goddamn mind?” No, he’s the same dropkick that he’s always been.

  30. “Has Turnbull lost his goddamn mind?” No, he’s the same dropkick that he’s always been.

    Presumably he is expecting that this time doing the same stupid shit he always does won’t result in the same rolling clusterfuck it always does.

    That qualifies as a form of insanity doesn’t it?

  34. bemused @ #1605 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 7:50 pm

    With C+, quote but no edit.

    You must be running an old version then.

    CTar1 @ #1655 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 8:44 pm

    No ‘blocking’ from me.

    Using ‘refresh’ has now made the missing appear!

    It’s possible that the posts in question spent some time in the moderation queue. C+ can’t load any such posts until after they’re approved, and it won’t retroactively insert them without a page refresh.

    KayJay @ #1661 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 8:57 pm

    Then you need to check that C+ is enabled.

    And also that the ‘Override HTML Comments’ option is checked.

  36. daretotread @ #1683 Thursday, November 9th, 2017 – 10:30 pm

    KayJay and Bemused

    Thanks..
    not sure what I did but I now have the quote button and comment nis.
    Wow!

    You been the beneficiary of remote sensing and beneficence.

    Please forward cash, jewels and portable valuables immediately to the Bemused/KayJay/Dodgy Triplets account care of … ♫Somewhere over the rainbow ♪♫

  37. I read the SMH report of the responses between Shorten and Turnbull.
    Turnbull didn’t say he would refer ALP MPs to the High Court.

    Shorten asked if he would honor the long standing convention not to, in his response Turnbull replied wtte they he wouldn’t necessarily abide by it.

    A small difference but it leaves Turnbull wiggle room. To me it doesn’t sound like a good way to get support from your opponent.

    Turnbull may have said something else on referring ALP MPs since then.

  40. Turnbull is still back in his merchant banker days and thinks its just the art of the deal to fix his current predicament. Shorten is a very tough negotiator and I suspect is playing a long game. The ALP brains trust will be war gaming this on a daily basis ….

  46. What you’re looking for is this:

    (you get a 5 minute grace period during which the post is editable; after that the button automatically disappears)

  47. To be fair, Adam Gartrell has a point with his Tweet. Remember how quick we got an answer regarding Stephen Parry and his dual citizenship? He is clearly not having a go at the British Home office, he is saying they may well have provided an answer by now.

  48. a r

    I assume that you found that ‘code’ doesn’t work?

    It’s a useful thing if you want to set out a ‘table’. A little fiddly but OK if you compose in a text editor and then paste it into the posting input box.

    Musrum had the equivalent working for a while a couple of years ago on this blog as it was then.

  49. I think it would be fun if the British Home Office published a CSV/spreadsheet in the form of:

    MP Name,UK Citizen Yes/No,Date UK Citizenship Lapsed

    …for all MP’s currently in Parliament. It’ll save them time, and there’s a strong ‘public interest’ angle besides.

  50. Am I right in suspecting that Brian’s cunning plan is to drag out the dual citizen crisis (with Alexander’s help) until after the HC recesses for xmas and claim he cannot have a vote on SSM until the uncertainty around who is eligible to vote is sorted, therefore delaying the vote as long as he can?

    Tom.

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