Another fortnight (or so), another 53-47 to Labor result from Newspoll. This time out the primary votes are Coalition 36% (up one), Labor 37% (up one), Greens 9% (down one) and One Nation 9% (down two). Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings are slightly improved, with approval up two to 34% and disapproval down two to 54%, and his lead as preferred prime minister out from 41-33 to 43-32, while Bill Shorten is unchanged at 33% approval and 53% disapproval.
UPDATE: Paywalled Australian report here. Kevin Bonham: “Same 2PP five #Newspolls in a row, a new all-time record. #auspol”.
PTMD,
Thank you. So do I! 🙂
I reckon the campaigning never stopped. ALP seem to have pretty well timed things to set the agenda while the Libs keep on with eating themselves.
Now with Abbott and cronies apparently setting up to branch stack and threaten existing members pre-selections……whats the odds of chaos, or a sharp swing to the right by the Libs?? Turnbull fwarked.
Evening all.
I hope things work out C@t.
The stability is interesting, I think that is what is playing on the government minds.
After athe budget, Labor lite and everything else, and still 53-47.
What if they have to govern and actually do something unpopular.
Also what if there is a scandal, they are walking on a tightrope.
Grimace
Sunday, July 23, 2017 at 10:25 pm
I’ll be very interested to see the imact of Shorten’s speech on Insiders on the next few opinion polls.
Almost no-one watches Insiders. Those who do most likely have fixed opinions. Those without fixed opinions will soon forget the details. The most important thing about Bill is that he looks relaxed and that he’s talking fluently to those themes that voters respond to. He will have shifted grounds of the MSM debate to “Confidence”. This is a key. No-one can have much confidence in the LNP, nor, in particular, in Turnbull, who is Mr False Promise. This is a request to voters to trust Labor. The chances are it will work a treat.
The British Airways safety ad is a classic.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YCoQwZ9BQ9Q
I hope all goes well with your son C@t, I’m sorry to hear that his recovery is not going to plan.
Thanks, JR and Grimace. 🙂
It was a Nurse not a doctor that picked up that he was going downhill. Simply because the nurse who shaved him came on again and realised that his gut was distended way more than normal after an operation. Also, the fact he couldn’t breathe very well any more kind of helped seal the deal. Anyway, he’s over the hump now (fingers crossed) and just needs another operation to fix up the problem. *Sigh*
Such is life. 🙂
Wow! Graham Richardson to address the NSW ALP Conference next weekend:
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/row-erupts-over-unbelievable-graham-richardson-alp-conference-address-20170723-gxgub3.html
https://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2017/07/23/newspoll-53-47-labor-7/comment-page-1/#comment-2613154
Amending Supply is a means of no confidence in the government when done in a lower house as it would loose the Government control of the expenditure. It is a little different in the Senate where the Government does not require a majority and so if there were Senate amendments allowed, the Senate could amend the budget without bringing the government down. The Senate supply amendment ban is probably to allow the government to retain control of the budget and not have it filled with US style earmarks or anything along those lines.
Refusing Supply is he real nuclear option for an upper houses (where they have that option) and runs the risk of running the government out of money and thus has disincentive to keep it rare. The Senate is obviously permitted to refuse supply as amend only means to change a bill and otherwise supply is just like a normal bill.
I’m loving the comments on the poll over at the OZ. A few are questioning the poll, many want to dump Turnbull, and some are baffled that people want to reopen the borders (how come Dutton storm troopers not working?).
And everyone knows the educated are stooopid. : )
Best wishes C@t
The reason that the Coalition controlled Senate delayed supply, rather than block it, is that if they had blocked it, to avoid the government running out of money, a new supply bill would have needed to pass the House of Representatives and the ALP controlled House of Representatives could quite easily have refused to supply the new Fraser Government with money.
c@tmomma @ #58 Sunday, July 23, 2017 at 10:47 pm
Disgraceful. NSW branch has not been reformed.
Richo has 6 months left at best.
briefly @ #54 Sunday, July 23, 2017 at 10:35 pm
Channel 7 in Perth had an extract from it on their news. I wasn’t really paying attention but it was on inequality. The lead in and out of the extract seemed fairly straight, so bit by bit the message seems to be getting out there. Still plenty of time to build it up before an election is even imminent.
I am sure Richo, with Kennet, Turnbull, and all the other members of the club will support the 4 year terms.
Shorten is certainly on a winner with this one.
What a man.
swamprat @ #66 Sunday, July 23, 2017 at 11:31 pm
You sure have got a bee in your bonnet over this haven’t you?
As Shorten observed today, the average term is just over 2 years and not the nominal 3.
Baring a defeat in the HoR, a government should run its full fixed term and a 3 year term is just too short.
C@tmomma
Once again, best wishes for your boy’s recovery.
Love and kisses from Brown Bear and me.
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-labour-eu-single-market-jeremy-corbyn-leave-customs-union-immigration-maastricht-a7855621.html
Corbyn joins the Tories.
Some good news!
According to a recent Survey of business owners by the Victorian Chamber of Commerce, the abolition of the 457 visa program will force employers to poach workers from other companies and/or invest more in training. The survey has found that has found less than 10 per cent of employers are now turning to skilled migration visas as a means of hiring qualified workers.
More details here:
http://www.macrorecruitment.com.au/index.php?category=7§ion=79
Bemused
Yes, there are numerous things that could be discussed to really reform our governmental system and so called democracy.
A party that supported real reform woukd actually propose something meaningful for discussion and consideration.
There is absolutely no evidence that decreasing the frequency when politicians have to answer to the voters improves anything apart from the convenience of bloody politicians.
It is a con…… if that is the only “reform” the ALP has, what is their point?
Dan Gulberry
Sunday, July 23, 2017 at 11:29 pm
briefly @ #54 Sunday, July 23, 2017 at 10:35 pm
Almost no-one watches Insiders.
Channel 7 in Perth had an extract from it on their news. I wasn’t really paying attention but it was on inequality. The lead in and out of the extract seemed fairly straight, so bit by bit the message seems to be getting out there. Still plenty of time to build it up before an election is even imminent.
Yes….he’s got the attention of the media…I think it’s pertinent to voters and will re-set the dynamics. Labor will be making the running…
swamprat @ #71 Sunday, July 23, 2017 at 11:44 pm
You are clearly an anarchist.
There are two Greek words for Brexit:
Hubris and Nemesis. 🙂
Bemused
No, i am a utopian pessimist.
the abolition of the 457 visa program will force employers to poach workers from other companies and/or invest more in training.
Sounds like an argument in favour of abolishing 457 visas. They were only introduced in the first place to make it easier for overseas companies to bring in their own managers and specialists to work on Australia-based projects. They were never intended as a means fir companies to bypass the Australian labour market, with its rules, conditions and protections.
steve777 @ #76 Sunday, July 23, 2017 at 11:57 pm
That’s why I said it was good news.
457s have been a means of suppressing wages and allowing employers to avoid training.
Swamprat
Sunday, July 23, 2017 at 11:44 pm
The 4-year terms proposal has been made because it offers predictability and stability from Government…and less room for opportunist politics. This is intended to answer complaints from sections of the electorate who will say (to anyone who will listen to them) that they want government to “get on with the job”.
It is also a way for Labor to show it’s thinking about governing and not about internal power games; and as well Shorten has posed the issue as an invitation to Turnbull. Labor has made the initiative. This reverses the usual situation, where the government exercise the initiative and others respond. It’s clever politics. Labor are the activists, the LNP the respondents…
Nonetheless, the regrettable truth is that many voters couldn’t care less about these things. In fact, there is a school of thought that says voters are resistant to such changes because they are unsettling (change being unwelcome in itself) and because they deflect from bread-and-butter issues.
We will see whether the LNP will pick up some long-standing Labor policy…or find a way to duck….
Great result for Labor with the Libs voting for their members to have all the power. Unlike where members on the left force the party to embrace positions that are generally popular in the community (but hated by the media), The Libs members are nutters. More Abbottism on the way. Yay.
Best wishes C@t
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/donald-trump-us-president-coal-climate-change-paris-accord-texas-power-plant-lay-off-70-workers-a7854536.html
The TMPA has been trying to sell the power plant for more than a year and will have to decide whether to shut it down completely if a buyer is not found by September 2018.
Glad I decided to check before going to bed. 16 Newspolls in a row. Sad
Cat
My best wishes for your son.
Goodnight
http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/middle-east/isis-syria-raqqa-women-civilians-burning-burqas-freed-liberated-shaving-beards-terrorism-terrorist-a7854431.html
…from the comments section…
As expected the best way to stamp out islamic extremist is to let muslims experience what it means.
The burqa is more of a cultural thing, rather than a religious requirement. For many middle eastern women, showing your hair is like showing your legs. I.e. shameful and embarrassing.
On the other hand, when the burqa became a symbol of oppression they grew to hate it. Eventually cultural inertia will return and they will return to keeping their hair covered, but their way, not the way mandated by isis.
Some muslims have a rosy view of extreme islam, just like the many young people (and some old fools) the world over who have a rosy view of communism. Those who have experienced it, know that it does not do what it says on the tin.
The veil is something very different. Living in a world dominated by men who control your every action, it represents a little bit of freedom. You can move around go where you shouldn’t be because no one knows its you. When you think about it however this is like a indentured servant who gets a day to be free as long as he covers his face. To some it will be a precious taste of freedom. To others it only serve to hammer home that they are not really free. So it is with the veil. Some women cherish it, some absolutely hate it. Its a symbol of both oppression and fight against it. The veil is a symptom. The disease is the attitude of the men.
As with The Handmaid’s Tale, the line between Margaret Attwood’s novel and reality is very thin.
Middle East –
[“On Friday, Qatari Emir Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani called for dialogue to resolve the crisis but stressed that any talks must respect his country’s sovereignty.”]
Just reading stuff about the blockade on Qatar.
Sheikh Al Thani is quoted as saying the above.
It occurred to me that when Al Thani says ‘my country’ he means ‘my country’ lock stock and barrel!
Morning all. The Liberals have generously released a secret report on Labor-linked corruption from 31 years ago. The timing is interesting.
http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/lionel-murphy-nations-most-enduring-judicial-scandal-reignited-after-31-years-20170721-gxfxla.html
I wonder if we will have to wait 31 years to find out who funds their election campaigns today, and why are billions of public money given to uneconomic privately owned coal mines and toll road tunnels?
From the comments quoted upthread (or was it the thread before?) it seems that the Coalition has successfully smeared Shorten’s name, because of that Commission. And Potatohead calls him a ‘spiv’. I admire humour, but not nasty name-calling from a thug.
Re. the 4 year fixed term proposal.
The USA has those… It is the “fixed” bit that can be problematic, as someone pointed out earlier with the example of the rotting body of the Abeid era ALP in NSW demonstrated and its consequences – and the current miasmic situation in the US White House demonstrates.
There is definitely something to be said for flexibility which used to exist when the “unwritten rules” of the Westminster system prevailed, before the likes of John Kerr and Tony Abbott, with the urgings and trumpetings of Murdoch the Foul.
A better question is why the Murphy material was allowed to be kept quiet for 30 years+.
Maybe Richo can be asked this at the NSW ALP conference.
Trump’s New Communications Director Just Shot Off His Mouth And May Have Gotten Trump Impeached
This is why amateurs shouldn’t be working as the President’s communications director. On CNN’s State Of The Union, Anthony Scaramucci said that someone called him yesterday questioning Russia’s attack on the 2016 election when host Jake Tapper pressed him, Scaramucci admitted that the person questioning whether or not Russia attacked the US was Trump.
Donald Trump’s communications director just set his boss up for a new obstruction of justice charge.
Just when you think, Trump and his people can’t get any more self-incriminatingly incompetent than they already are, Anthony Scaramucci goes on CNN and proves you wrong.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/23/trumps-communications-director-shot-mouth-dug-impeachment-hole-deeper.html
Trump’s Own Lawyer Screws Up And Admits That The President Has Committed Crimes
A bad Sunday for Trump got worse when his own lawyer Jay Sekulow was asked about the President pardoning himself, and instead of denying that Trump committed any crimes, he said that the Supreme Court would have to decide if Trump can pardon himself.
Even Trump’s own lawyer won’t go out on a limb to proclaim his client’s innocence. Jay Sekulow’s answers were interesting because what they didn’t say suggested the likely presence of criminal skeletons in Donald Trump’s closet.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/23/trumps-lawyer-screws-admits-president-committed-crimes.html
Adam Schiff Terrifies Trump By Laying Out How His Entire Family Could End Up In Prison
Rep. Adam Schiff (D-CA) explained why Trump is freaking over the special counsel looking at his finances. The entire Trump Organization, meaning the Trump family could have been laundering money for Russia.
If the family has been laundering money for the Russians, the officials of the Trump Organization could face criminal charges. Those officials are Trump and his kids. As investigators are following the money, they are finding more trails and threads, which is why the investigation is taking so long, but also why there is a good chance that it will expose this president and his family’s financial dealings with Russia.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/23/adam-schiff-terrifies-trump-laying-entire-family-prison.html
Trump’s Numbers Get Worse As He Sets Record For Lowest For 2nd Quarter Approval In History
According to Gallup, Trump has set the record for the lowest average second quarter approval rating in the history of presidential polling.
The numbers aren’t getting better for Trump. They are getting worse. The health care bill, the Russia scandal, and his own tweets are tanking his poll numbers. Trump hasn’t hit bottom yet, and if non-Republican voters show up during the 2016 midterms, Republican incumbents could be routed in 2018.
http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/23/trumps-numbers-worse-sets-record-lowest-2nd-quarter-approval-history.html
‘Mooch sucks at his job already’: Internet flays Scaramucci after flame-out Tapper interview
During the combative interview that ran nearly 30 minutes, Scaramucci claimed an anonymous source told him the Russians didn’t hack the election– only to fold seconds later and admit his source is President Donald Trump.
http://www.rawstory.com/2017/07/mooch-sucks-at-his-job-already-internet-flays-scaramucci-after-flame-out-tapper-interview/
Jake Tapper rains hell on Scaramucci for denying Russian hacking: ‘Don’t you owe a duty to the truth?’
“There’s a lot of misinformation,” Scaramucci said, dismissing the conclusion of U.S. intelligence agencies. “Somebody said to me the other day — I don’t want to say who — if the Russian actually hacked the this situation and spilled out those emails, you would have never seen it. You would have never had any evidence of them. Meaning that they’re super confident in their deception skills and hacking.”
“Wait, wait, wait,” Tapper interrupted. “I don’t know who this anonymous person is.”
“How about it’s the president, Jake,” Scaramucci revealed. “He called me from Air Force One and basically said to me, ‘This is — maybe they did it, maybe they didn’t do it.’”
“You’re saying, you’re going to side with the president,” Tapper continued. “Don’t you owe a duty to the truth?”
http://www.rawstory.com/2017/07/jake-tapper-rains-hell-on-scaramucci-for-denying-russian-hacking-dont-you-owe-a-duty-to-the-truth/
Regarding the NSW Liberal vote on member plebiscites for preselections.
It still has the to ‘ratified’ by the left dominated state council. The right are still concerned that it might be neutered, so issue is not over yet.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/public-service/public-service-travel-spending-blows-out-by-75-million-since-2013-20170721-gxft7s.html
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Ross Gittins writes that the collapse of the “neoliberal consensus” is as apparent in Oz as it is in Trump’s America and Brexitting Britain, but our big-business people are taking a while to twig that their power to influence government policy has waned. The public have rejected “bizonomics” he says.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/comment-and-analysis/big-business-influence-wanes-as-public-rejects-bizonomics-20170722-gxgli1.html
Greg Jericho says that Labor’s race for the political centre is futile. Rather it needs to be more progressive. The Greens are in disarray and this presents an opportunity.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2017/jul/23/race-for-political-centre-is-futile-labor-needs-to-be-more-progressive
Urban Wronski describes the new super-ministry as an epic failure.
https://urbanwronski.com/2017/07/23/turnbulls-super-ministry-an-epic-failure/
At least five car makers in Australia have recalled their vehicles over dangerous airbags, only to refit them with the same faulty product, an investigation by consumer group Choice has found. Surely not!!
http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/car-manufacturers-admit-to-refitting-vehicles-with-faulty-takata-airbags-20170723-gxgt9q.html
Federal government efforts to cut the public service’s half-billion dollar annual travel bill appear grounded as new figures show spending has blown out by $75 million since the Coalition returned to government. Videoconferencing not working too well over the NBN?
http://www.smh.com.au/national/public-service/public-service-travel-spending-blows-out-by-75-million-since-2013-20170721-gxft7s.html
NSW Liberal party members have voted overwhelming in favour of a push by allies of former prime minister Tony Abbott to give all local members a vote in state and federal preselections.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbott's-liberal-party-reform-motion-passes-after-voting-website-crashes-20170723-gxgxq8.html
On this matter David Crowe writes that the Liberal Party is being warned of an “unholy war” over internal reform if it fails to act swiftly on an overwhelming vote of NSW party members late yesterday to curb the power of top officials and to hold plebiscites to choose election candidates. Google.
/national-affairs/lib-reformers-warn-of-war-if-convention-win-ignored/news-story/9be5aaccc71330db8fbde0e31e6b4590
Gabrielle Chan reckons it goes beyond Abbott vs Turnbull.
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/jul/23/why-the-nsw-liberals-battle-is-about-more-than-turnbull-v-abbott
Richo reckons the NSW Liberal Party is in a hell of a mess. Google.
/opinion/columnists/graham-richardson/nsw-libs-in-terrible-strife/news-story/d0e354cdbffebaa8b5597965118979a0
Section 2 . . .
The Turnbull government is moving a step closer to slapping export restrictions on liquefied natural gas producers as part of its bid to secure domestic supply and bring down prices. Would this represent sovereign risk?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-government-moves-a-step-closer-to-export-controls-for-gas-producers-20170723-gxgtoo.html
Malcolm Turnbull has signalled support for Bill Shorten’s plan to overhaul the federal electoral system with fixed four-year government terms and plans to meet with the opposition leader in a bid to forge a bipartisan consensus. Will this get him offside with the RWNJs?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bill-shorten-calls-for-referendum-to-give-federal-governments-fixed-fouryear-terms-20170723-gxgs3s.html
Prominent conservatives within the Coalition are split over whether to hold a postal vote plebiscite on same-sex marriage to stymie a push by Liberal moderates for a conscience vote on the issue. Anyone who thinks this idea would be worthwhile is a fool IMHO.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/samesex-marriage-conservatives-split-over-postalvote-plebiscite-20170720-gxfmzu.html
New legislation to increase sanctions on Russia over its election meddling also sharply limits the President’s ability to suspend or terminate the sanctions – a remarkable handcuffing by a Republican-led Congress six months into Trump’s tenure.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/as-congress-acts-to-punish-russiatrump-caught-in-a-bind-20170723-gxgtl0.html
I reckon Trump’s new mouthpiece Anthony Scaramucci is a good test for the theory of first impressions. I see a big money spiv.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/read-anthony-scaramuccis-old-tweets-youll-understand-why-he-deleted-them-20170723-gxgsgu.html
Sean Spicer’s gone but Trump’s PR is still a joke.
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2017/jul/23/sean-spicer-exit-pr-joke-is-not-over-trump-in-control
I think I might make a rare foray to a cinema and see “Dunkirk”.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/whats-missing-in-christopher-nolans-dunkirk-shows-us-a-new-side-of-war-20170721-gxfyq9.html
Australia’s big banks have slammed the brakes on project finance lending to expand the coal industry since late 2015, but are still lending billions for other fossil fuel development.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/big-four-banks-slash-lending-to-coal-miners-20170720-gxf9u8.html
People should look to Indonesia to see why we vaccinate our children.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/look-to-indonesia-to-see-why-we-vaccinate-our-children-20170722-gxgk1j.html