Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Labor maintains its wide lead in an Essential Research poll that also gauges opinion on party polarisation, same-sex marriage and foreign leaders.

Primary vote numbers will have to wait until the full report is published later today, but The Guardian reports that the latest fortnight rolling average from Essential Research has Labor maintaining the 54-46 two-party lead it opened after a one-point gain last week.

Among the other findings:

• Seventy-one per cent agreed both sides of politics should meet in some place called “the middle” more often; 45% said they would consider voting for a party that sat in it; and another 45% (or perhaps the same one) agreed that Australian parties were “too ideological”, compared with 37% who perceived no substantial difference between them (I assume these two were separate options to the same question, although this is unclear).

• Yet another question on same-sex marriage finds 61% supportive and 26% opposed, and 50% supporting a binding plebiscite compared with 23% for a vote by parliament and 9% for a non-binding plebiscite followed by a parliamentary conscience vote.

• Questions on foreign leaders found 51% had a favourable view of Justin Trudeau, which would be an impressive result for a Canadian Prime Minister on name recognition, never mind approval. Angela Merkel on 43% and Emmanuel Macron on 41% both rated higher than Theresa May on 33%. Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin both rated 16%, and 6% had somehow formed a favourable view of Kim Jong-un. All of these numbers will become more meaningful when we see the full report, which will hopefully also include results for unfavourable.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,344 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. Paul Bongiorno‏Verified account @PaulBongiorno · 9m9 minutes ago

    Whatever way you cut it, this is a dangerous political fix.

    Brought to you by courtesy of our very own leather-jacketed PM.

  2. Re Zoomster @9:16 AM:

    On those numbers, the ALP 2PP would be about 29.2 + 80% Greens (=7.5) + X * (One Nation =?) + 50% (Other + Undecided = 4.6)

    So 41.3% + ?.
    If X is 50%, Labor’s 2PP would be 49.7%, just short, although maybe Greens plus other would get Labor over the line. I can’t imagine anyone voting Green and preferencing Dutton other than Donkeys. On the other hand, the Dutton persona would appeal to many One Nation voters, although many probably don’t think he’s right wing enough – too kind to asylum seekers maybe. It’s hard to see many preferencing Labor.

  3. Can we assume that poll is reliable, being from Fox News and all?

    I’m pretty sure that Fox/Faux News has the Working Class Whites/White Men demographic all sewn up, so they probably have a good read of them.

    I would also bet London to a brick that Trump has a very itchy Twitter finger today about that poll but is unwilling to bite the hand that feeds him they eyes and ears of his base and core group of supporters.

  4. itzadream @ #1064 Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 8:26 am

    What strikes me as especially tragic about the shooting of Justine Damond by the rookie cop, with a history, who refuses to make a statement, is that she was a rescuer – yoga teacher, meditation, healer, helper of ducks cross the road – who was naive enough or so lacking in local street cred as to go it alone into the American night. I’m not blaming her; we all take our local sensibilities with us when we travel or move to a new place.
    ‘Samaritanism’ can be a risky business, which is not to say it is not the honourable path. (not sure how many nots I need, but you get the drift)

    Thanks for that, I feel the same. In Oz I would have no hesitation in walking up to a policeman any time, any place. Every single instance of contact with a police officer has been marked by their unfailing courtesy and respect.

    Disclosure: I am now an old white male, and my skin colour may have made a difference, even when I was a YWM.

  5. Due to the AFR article today I have three popular tweets today. 🙂

    guytaur: In #McManusstan An ICAC exists political expense rorts are history
    guytaur: In #McManusstan The Murdoch media empire pays their taxesguytaur: In the #McManusstan republic three flags proudly fly at parliament. The Aboriginal flag. The Rainbow flag and the Republic flag

  6. Citizen
    Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 9:29 am
    Despite all the efforts within the Liberals to silence Abbott, it seems that he is remaining as loud as ever and has no intention of departing any time soon.

    Abbott will be arousing huge resentment inside the Liberal Party. He’s now also assailing his own formerly closest supporters and driving them to Turnbull. He has completely lost it.

  7. Henjam48: @ResignInShame @vanbadham Welcome to #mcmanusstan where safe full-time employment, that pays a living wage is available to all who want it. #auspol

  8. “Australia’s foreign spy agencies could gather intelligence on “classes” of Australians involved with terrorist organisations to help stop lone wolf attacks or help the military target terrorists, under recommendations from a high-level review. I thinks it’s called “profiling”.”

    Or class warfare?

  9. Trump warns Mueller not to look into Trump family finances unrelated to Russia — and won’t rule out firing him

    Mr. Trump said Mr. Mueller was running an office rife with conflicts of interest and warned investigators against delving into matters too far afield from Russia. Mr. Trump never said he would order the Justice Department to fire Mr. Mueller, nor would he outline circumstances under which he might do so. But he left open the possibility as he expressed deep grievance over an investigation that has taken a political toll in the six months since he took office.

    Asked if Mr. Mueller’s investigation would cross a red line if it expanded to look at his family’s finances beyond any relationship to Russia, Mr. Trump said, “I would say yes.” He would not say what he would do about it. “I think that’s a violation. Look, this is about Russia.”

    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/19/us/politics/trump-interview-sessions-russia.html?smid=tw-share

  10. The Aboriginal flag. The Rainbow flag and the Republic flag

    Guytaur – some context is required. What / where is McManusstan? And what is the ‘Republic flag’?

  11. Jared Kushner to appear before Senate Intelligence Committee Monday

    White House senior adviser Jared Kushner has agreed to appear before the Senate Intelligence Committee as part of its investigation into Russian election meddling on Monday, July 24, ABC News has learned. The closed-door session sets up what could be one of the most highly anticipated interviews for lawmakers to date.

    http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/jared-kushner-senate-intelligence-committee-monday/story?id=48725358

  12. SamDickfos: CNN is reporting John McCain has been diagnosed with brain cancer.

    Sad news for the McCain family.

    Politically looks like the GOP can only lose one vote on future legislation until a special election is held. I think thats how the US handles this situation.

  13. Guytaur

    Damn. McCain was one of the few not on the Trump bandwagon. Kinda makes sense now. Some of his comments lately were incoherent. Sad

  14. Victoria

    Yes its not good news all round and does make the confusion of the good senator understandable. Also more credit to him. Even with the damage being wreaked by a brain tumour he still stood up for his country over party.

  15. Steve777

    “Guytaur – some context is required. What / where is McManusstan? And what is the ‘Republic flag’?”

    Yes what IS the Republican flag? I want to know so I can fly it.

  16. Jeez what is Trump going to do – fire every investigator appointed for getting closer to the truth about his family’s businesses and their dealings with the Russians?

  17. Guytaur

    Some of his comments were strange to say the least. Now very understandable. Throughout the imbroglio, He has been the lone voice in standing up for the US and its allies. Sigh…….

  18. phoenixred @ #1111 Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 9:58 am

    Trump warns Mueller not to look into Trump family finances unrelated to Russia — and won’t rule out firing him
    Mr. Trump said Mr. Mueller was running an office rife with conflicts of interest and warned investigators against delving into matters too far afield from Russia. Mr. Trump never said he would order the Justice Department to fire Mr. Mueller, nor would he outline circumstances under which he might do so. But he left open the possibility as he expressed deep grievance over an investigation that has taken a political toll in the six months since he took office.
    Asked if Mr. Mueller’s investigation would cross a red line if it expanded to look at his family’s finances beyond any relationship to Russia, Mr. Trump said, “I would say yes.” He would not say what he would do about it. “I think that’s a violation. Look, this is about Russia.”
    https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/19/us/politics/trump-interview-sessions-russia.html?smid=tw-share

    So, the next question.

    What other countries is he financially beholden to?

  19. TrueFactsStated: BOOM! twitter.com/spicerlies/sta…

    Spicerlies: SCOOP/
    Senate Judiciary letter to @DonaldJTrumpJr
    they PUT him on notice…look at what they are asking for. Oh. My.God. It’s delish

  20. Whoa!
    Sen. John McCain diagnosed with brain cancer

    The office for the 80-year-old McCain, the Republican nominee for president in 2008 and a U.S. senator representing Arizona since 1987, released a statement from the Mayo Clinic announcing that, after undergoing a procedure to remove a blood clot from above his left eye last week, “Subsequent tissue pathology revealed that a primary brain tumor known as a glioblastoma was associated with the blood clot.”

    “The Senator and his family are reviewing further treatment options with his Mayo Clinic care team. Treatment options may include a combination of chemotherapy and radiation.”
    This is a developing story. It will be updated.

  21. Fess

    I just listened to podcast of Claude Taylor being interviewed on some liberal program. He linked it on his twitterfeed. He basically says that Trump will likely fire Mueller at some stage

  22. grimace @ #1073 Thursday, July 20th, 2017 – 8:47 am

    He is entitled to due process of law.

    But that’s not what he’ll get. He’ll get the special version that applies to police officers, where he’s basically beyond reproach and may not even be indicted in the first place, let alone stand trial and face judgement before a jury of his peers.

    There’s no grain of salt large enough for me to believe he had any justifiable reason for fearing for his life. Particularly given that neither he nor his partner thought it was worth turning their body cameras on.

    At best, what it sounds like is an inexperienced officer who panicked and gunned down an unarmed civilian. He should be held accountable for manslaughter at least, but probably won’t even get that.

  23. Yep.it has taken a while for the msm!!!

    Claude Taylor @TrueFactsStated
    ·
    4m

    MSM. First they ignore you. Then they mock you. Then they join you. Welcome. We’ve been waiting.

  24. Elaugaufein
    Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 9:08 am
    Dutton has actually gained in his seat last I heard. I wonder if PHON support is lower than usual in similar seats given that Dutton appeals to the worst instincts of many such.
    ******************************************
    I’m not overly worried about this as seat level polling is not very reliable in Australia.

  25. guytaur
    Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 10:12 am

    TrueFactsStated: BOOM! twitter.com/spicerlies/sta…

    Spicerlies: SCOOP/
    Senate Judiciary letter to @DonaldJTrumpJr
    they PUT him on notice…look at what they are asking for. Oh. My.God. It’s delish

    https://twitter.com/spicerlies/status/887812939209732096

    ***********************************************

    mmmmm …… quite a few ‘foreign sounding ‘ names on communications history request …..

  26. Don
    Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 9:48 am
    itzadream @ #1064 Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 8:26 am

    What strikes me as especially tragic about the shooting of Justine Damond by the rookie cop, with a history, who refuses to make a statement, is that she was a rescuer – yoga teacher, meditation, healer, helper of ducks cross the road – who was naive enough or so lacking in local street cred as to go it alone into the American night. I’m not blaming her; we all take our local sensibilities with us when we travel or move to a new place.
    ‘Samaritanism’ can be a risky business, which is not to say it is not the honourable path. (not sure how many nots I need, but you get the drift)

    Thanks for that, I feel the same. In Oz I would have no hesitation in walking up to a policeman any time, any place. Every single instance of contact with a police officer has been marked by their unfailing courtesy and respect.

    Disclosure: I am now an old white male, and my skin colour may have made a difference, even when I was a YWM.
    **********************************************************
    I have a friend who is married to an Aboriginal woman. Being in a shopping centre or restaurant with her is a very different experience to the one normally experienced in such places by a young white man.

  27. confessions Thursday, July 20, 2017 at 10:10 am
    Jeez what is Trump going to do – fire every investigator appointed for getting closer to the truth about his family’s businesses and their dealings with the Russians?

    ********************************************
    Trump may have some federal authority over Robert Mueller – but I doubt he has it over NY Attorney General, Eric Schneiderman – who has a deeply personal quest to totally bust the Trump Organisation/Family and seize all their assets for alleged RICO crimes committed before Trump became President ….

  28. C@tmomma @ #1124 Thursday, July 20th, 2017 – 10:12 am

    Whoa!
    Sen. John McCain diagnosed with brain cancer

    Sad. He was one of the few Republican Senators who actually still had some principles. Or at least, enough personal bad-blood with Trump to act that way.

    As one might expect, the prognosis for glioblastoma is not great:

    With standard treatment, median survival for adults with an anaplastic astrocytoma is about two to three years. For adults with more aggressive glioblastoma, treated with concurrent temozolamide and radiation therapy, median survival is about 14.6 months and two-year survival is 30%. However, a 2009 study reported that almost 10% of patients with glioblastoma may live five years or longer.

    Not indicated is for what extent of that time the patient is able to function normally/usefully.

  29. (way off topic)

    A few days ago a poster exhorted all men over 40 (IIRC) to get their PSA done as a prostate cancer screen. I didn’t comment at the time as it seemed inappropriate, being ignorant of his clinical or pathology circumstances, and wish him all best. But it is a bit more complicated than just having a PSA (blood test) and having the prostate removed. Data and treatment plans are changing.

    This from ABC online helps me outsource my thoughts, and as the ad says, always consult with your doctor. What is becoming more and more apparent is that the rush to surgery is being more carefully considered these days, and these studies suggest there is little difference in survival rates between surgery, radiation, and no intervention and close monitoring. Don’t take that as a worthy summary, read the article by Dr Ian Haines, Monash

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2017-07-20/prostate-cancer-surgery-for-early-stage–doesnt-save-lives/8724508

  30. My French teacher, a woman in her 60s now sadly (or probably happily) speaking angelic, would always insist I go with her to the bank (then BNP Sydney) as there was no way she’d get the same treatment as a woman alone.

  31. Ex-Intel Director Destroys Trump For Trying To Make Russia, Not America, Great Again

    “This affinity for Russia is a very curious thing,” Clapper said. “Bear in mind, Russia is an existential threat to this country.”

    Former Director of National Intelligence James Clapper slammed Donald Trump on Thursday, saying that he is helping make Russia great again by taking a series of policy steps right off Moscow’s wish list

    In response to Matthews’ question, Clapper laughed and said, “Yeah, in a way, I guess he is (making Russia great again), particularly as Putin gets his way in Syria and if nothing is done to push back on the Russians in Ukraine, yes.”

    Ultimately, it’s stunning to hear somebody from the intelligence community – particularly someone with the nonpartisan credibility and gravitas that Clapper has – say that Trump is doing the bidding of Russia and ignoring the interests of the United States.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/19/ex-intel-director-destroys-trump-russia-america-great.html

  32. Trump Throws Embarrassing Tantrum Over Jeff Sessions Not Being His Russia Puppet

    “If he would have recused himself before the job, I would have said, ‘Thanks, Jeff, but I’m not going to take you.’ It’s extremely unfair — and that’s a mild word — to the president.”

    The fact that Trump is angry at Sessions for removing himself from the Russia investigation suggests the president intended to use his attorney general as political cover – the same way he tried to use former FBI James Comey.

    If the president and his team have nothing to hide, they wouldn’t care who was investigating the matter so long as the inquiry is fair and gets to the bottom of what happened.

    The Department of Justice is not supposed to do the bidding of the President of the United States – in fact, just the opposite; it’s supposed to be independent of Trump.

    http://www.politicususa.com/2017/07/19/trump-throws-embarrassing-tantrum-jeff-sessions-russia-puppet.html

  33. PhoenixRed

    Some of team patriot on Twitter are suggesting that perhaps Jared Kushner has flipped and is co operating with DOJ.

  34. ‘Putin is the only ally he’s never betrayed’: Internet loses it after Trump throws Sessions under the bus

    In a rare interview with the New York Times, President Donald Trump repeatedly said he would not have nominated Jeff Sessions as Attorney General if he would have known Sessions would recuse himself from the Russia investigation.

    The internet was shocked that a sitting President would kneecap his own Attorney General in the pages of the Times.

    http://www.rawstory.com/2017/07/putin-is-the-only-ally-hes-never-betrayed-internet-loses-it-after-trump-throws-sessions-under-the-bus/

  35. A R,
    The glioblastoma diagnosis may help explain the confused questions McCain was asking Comey when he testified recently.

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