Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor

Labor maintains its wide lead in an Essential Research poll that also gauges opinion on party polarisation, same-sex marriage and foreign leaders.

Primary vote numbers will have to wait until the full report is published later today, but The Guardian reports that the latest fortnight rolling average from Essential Research has Labor maintaining the 54-46 two-party lead it opened after a one-point gain last week.

Among the other findings:

• Seventy-one per cent agreed both sides of politics should meet in some place called “the middle” more often; 45% said they would consider voting for a party that sat in it; and another 45% (or perhaps the same one) agreed that Australian parties were “too ideological”, compared with 37% who perceived no substantial difference between them (I assume these two were separate options to the same question, although this is unclear).

• Yet another question on same-sex marriage finds 61% supportive and 26% opposed, and 50% supporting a binding plebiscite compared with 23% for a vote by parliament and 9% for a non-binding plebiscite followed by a parliamentary conscience vote.

• Questions on foreign leaders found 51% had a favourable view of Justin Trudeau, which would be an impressive result for a Canadian Prime Minister on name recognition, never mind approval. Angela Merkel on 43% and Emmanuel Macron on 41% both rated higher than Theresa May on 33%. Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin both rated 16%, and 6% had somehow formed a favourable view of Kim Jong-un. All of these numbers will become more meaningful when we see the full report, which will hopefully also include results for unfavourable.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,344 comments on “Essential Research: 54-46 to Labor”

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  1. In a spooky echo of that time, Mr Turnbull is reportedly due to make another national security announcement this week when he unveils the long-anticipated “home office” mega-portfolio to be run by former Abbott loyalist, Peter Dutton.

    Remember when Abbott was all but gone he too developed an obsession with national security announcements.

    I wonder what the props will be at the super-agency announcement…

  2. Zoom
    “Krugman said that Trump’s election would see America become a ‘-stan’. Looks like we’re one too, now.”
    We are now the Christian Kingdom of Murdochistan.

  3. Good Morning

    Its good to see the push back against the super ministry. I hope it fails to become reality. Note thats hope.

    If it does become reality Labor must either undo it or if thats too much chaos in a vital area of security then introduce accountability mechanisms to stop the human rights and civil liberties abuses that come from that.

    Also a Human Rights Bill is necessary with such a super ministry in existence.

  4. victoria Tuesday, July 18, 2017 at 8:57 am


    Unsurprisingly Trump and his fellow travellers started with no collusion with Russia to anyone would take a meeting with Russian govt reps. Of course, the base will lap it up. Hence why the strategy is to erode the base one revelation at a time.
    Waiting patiently for the next shoe to drop……….


    So its “death by a 1000 cuts” to soften up/prepare the base deplorables for the ending vs Louise Mensch’s “Shock & Awe” – hit him in one go with everything – RICO, Mob Association, Racketeering, Conspiracy, Collusion , Tax Evasion etc etc ???????

    ….. listening intently and patiently for that shoe too ……

  5. Sheridan in the GG today in addition to Crowe is critical of the new department.
    I think they and others, are getting a lot of information off the record.

  6. Itza:

    Just as Tone had his flags that increased with each new national security announcement, Turnbull will have his gas-masked commandos that multiply each time?

  7. You want to know what I think will be Turnbull’s ‘surprise announcement’ within the unveiling of the Fatherland Department?

    Andrew Hastie to be ‘Minister Assisting’.

  8. Confessions
    Tuesday, July 18, 2017 at 9:16 am

    Just as Tone had his flags that increased with each new national security announcement, Turnbull will have his gas-masked commandos that multiply each time?

    I believe he has already arranged with the props department of “Star Wars” to obtain the necessary number of inter galactic storm troopers.

  9. Citizen

    Huw Parkinson has been looking into the Star Wars memes. I expect this will be a great sendup on Insiders this week

  10. Asbestos JulieB would be the ideal Commander of the Home Security whatsit.
    She has the hardened stare and the ability to ignore human suffering.

    Time for an Australian Declaration of Human Rights, I think.

  11. Lizzie

    The UK model Turnbull is adopting has the EU Human Rights Court oversight and a Human Rights Bill along with accountability mechanisms for civil liberties violations.

  12. c@tmomma @ #12 Tuesday, July 18, 2017 at 9:20 am

    You want to know what I think will be Turnbull’s ‘surprise announcement’ within the unveiling of the Fatherland Department?
    Andrew Hastie to be ‘Minister Assisting’.

    “Oh, sweet Jesus”.
    Some time needs to elapse while I try to forget this comment.
    In the meanwhile from the outer Barcoo of Newcastle we have a clear blue sky – 17 ℃ heading for 22℃ and hanging faintly visible in the sky – the moon.

  13. Andrew Hastie to be ‘Minister Assisting’.

    Well if nothing else he’s got the vacant gas mask stare down pat.

  14. Lizzie

    You are right not to trust. I see absolutely no talk of accountability mechanisms and a Human Rights Act to be accountable to the International Human Rights Court.

    Thats what would be the UK model here.

  15. Huw Parkinson has been looking into the Star Wars memes. I expect this will be a great sendup on Insiders this week

    I hope so, but unfortunately there’s still a week to go and with this lot anything could happen to trump yesterday’s ridiculousness!

  16. @ Guytaur – they’re in too deep. By announcing it, and announcing Dutton in charge of it, they are committed.

    If Turnbull backs out now, he will have hung Dutton out to dry. Turnbull would lose a leadership spill on the very next partyroom meeting. Turnbull is not THAT stupid.

  17. carolrhartsell: Lot of folks who have never cared about Dr. Who before are suddenly very concerned. Maybe we should announce that climate change is a woman.

  18. Here they are…..

    Eric Schneiderman @AGSchneiderman

    Replying to @AGSchneiderman
    Stay strong.

    Stay visible.

    Stay loud.

    We will win this.




    Ale Retweeted

    Eric Schneiderman @AGSchneiderman

    My lawsuits against the Trump Administration may not have won me a lot of fans in Washington. But they’re not my concern.

    You are.




  19. TheRickyDavila: You couldn’t be more wrong sir. You have a lot of fans, all over America & we are with you. Thank you for defending America.

  20. victoria Tuesday, July 18, 2017 at 9:36 am


    I saw a couple of tweets from the AG of NY. I will post them.

    I have a lot of faith in this man – I am sure he has a lot of pre-Presidential material to work with combined with a personal mission on Trump & Family ….

  21. John Reidy @ #5 Tuesday, July 18th, 2017 – 6:45 am

    “But the lack of legislative accomplishment seems only to make supporters take more satisfaction in Trump’s behavior. And thus far the President’s tone, rather than his policies, has had the greatest impact on Grand Junction”.

    So the ~38% of people who still consider themselves Trump supporters aren’t the sharpest tools in the shed. What else is new?

  22. AttitudeMag: Our Bachelors of the Year lip-sync for their life to @carlyraejepsen’s ‘Cut to the Feeling’. Happy Pride!

  23. So the super portfolio was just a ‘thing’ to make Dutts feel he was making headway in his quest for uberfuhrer status.

    But it like all Mal’s brainfarts this was just hot smelly air?

  24. Guytaur
    Yes I do. These tunnels are now costing $1 billion/km. It used to be half a billion$/km. Why the massive increase in cost? There is almost zero inflation in construction costs at present. Could it be the taxpayer has guaranteed the projects now, so they can charge what they like? Someone is making a killing, and we are all the financial victims.

    And why not public transport? They projects make the Melbourne and Sydney metro projects look cheap at $2-300 million/km. Just one of these projects would be enough total budget to fix the Melbourne rail system and tram system combined. All for a tunnel to one little peninsula in northern Sydney? Insane waste.

  25. cleannrgsummit: ‘It is time for the parliament to put a price on pollution. Everybody knows this is inevitable.’ – @billshortenmp #ACES2017

  26. Chris Christie Abandons Trump, Says Secret Russia Meeting Was “Probably” Against The Law

    You know things are going bad in Trumpworld when the unpopular New Jersey governor tries to distance himself from the president’s team.

    When asked by a reporter if getting opposition research from a foreign government – as Donald Trump Jr. did last summer with a Russian lawyer – was inappropriate, Christie said, “Yeah, I think it would be.”

    It’s just the latest evidence that, as the Russia scandal continues to bury the administration in bombshell developments, more and more Republicans – even those who have been Trump’s most diehard supporters – are doing their best to scrub themselves of Trump before it’s too late.

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