Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

A better result for the Coalition from Essential Research this week brings the pollster back into line with the 53-47 consensus.

As I should have reported yesterday, this week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnight rolling average has ticked in favour of the Coalition, who gain a point on the primary vote at the expense of Labor to lead 38% to 36%, with Labor’s two-party lead down from 54-46 to 53-47, as the Greens rise a point to 11% and One Nation falls one to 5%. Most of the supplementary questions this week are less clearly framed than they might be, but a question on the Trans-Pacific Partnership suggests respondents are less inclined to think it stacked in favour of big business than they were when the United States was on board. Another question repeats an exercise from October last year in gauging opinion on major policy decisions of recent decades, finding overwhelming support for compulsory superannuation and Medicare, pluralities in favour of the GST, free trade agreements, floating of the dollar and reducing car manufacturing subsidies, and better-than-usual responses to privatisation, breaking in favour of Qantas and against Telstra and the Commonwealth Bank.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

884 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. The genesis of the word covfefe has cemented the word cromulent into the lexicon and hardened the case for both embiggens and bigly.
    The US pulling out of the Paris agreement will elicit worldwide condemnation. What will Brian Trumble do?

  2. Trump Just Proved With A Single Tweet That Fox News Is Running The White House

    Despite being told by his own lawyers not to tweet about the Russia scandal, Donald Trump fired off an enraged tweet about Carter Page after watching a segment on Fox and Friends, which proves that America has a president who is being guided by a news network that fakes and scripts its segments.

    Trump got his information from a brief segment on Fox and Friends.

    The President Of The United States is speaking to the world based on information he receives, not from his daily briefings, but from a network that according to a former employee scripts and rigs their panel discussions so that conservatives always win. The White House is so worried about Trump’s tweets being used as evidence against him that they want a team of lawyers to vet his tweets before he sends them, but he is spouting off about the Russia scandal while watching Fox and Friends.

  3. Bombshell Poll Reveals Voters Want Trump Impeached, Not For Russia, Because He Is Mentally Unfit

    The Russia scandal is big, but among the growing number of voters who favor impeaching Trump in the Politico/Morning Consult poll, the reason they want the President removed from office isn’t crimes, but that he is unfit to occupy the Oval Office.

    “For the Americans who said they want to see Republicans impeach a sitting president of their own party, their desire appears to be borne from the notion that Trump is generally unfit for office. More than half (54 percent) of the voters who said Trump should be impeached said it was because “he is unfit to serve,” while 43 percent said it was because they thought Trump had committed an impeachable offense, such as treason, bribery, or other high crimes and misdemeanors.

  4. Rachel Maddow Beat Fox News For An Entire Month For The First Time In History

    For the first time, The Rachel Maddow Show was the most watched program on cable news for an entire month, as Maddow beat both CNN and Fox News in weekday primetime total viewers in May.

    Rachel Maddow’s coverage of the Russia scandal has been relentless, and her tenacity has led MSNBC to history making month of ratings

  5. Trump’s Decision To Withdraw US From Paris Climate Agreement Sends Stocks Tumbling

    The stock market slowly realizes that the tax cuts Trump promised aren’t coming anytime soon, while his decision to withdraw the United States from the Paris Climate Change agreement has given stocks more reason to drop.

    The fact that environmental and business leaders are agreeing that Trump’s agenda is bad for the country is proof that as President, Trump is doing the exact opposite of making America great.

  6. Sean Spicer Claims Covfefe Is A Secret Trump Code Word Then Abruptly Ends Briefing

    As the nation tries to figure out Trump meant when he tweeted covfefe, White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer claimed that it was code word understood by Trump and a few people.

    After four months, we as a nation are collectively sitting around trying to figure out what the incoherent nonsense words in low energy, golf cart riding president’s tweets mean.

    Maybe Trump should tweet nonsense words daily because every second we spend on covfefe is one not spent talking about Russia or his terrible health care bill

  7. James Comey To Drop The Hammer And Testify That Trump Pushed Him To End Russia Investigation

    FBI Director James Comey will testify publicly next week that Donald Trump used the presidency to try to pressure the former FBI director into ending the investigation into Trump campaign collusion with Russia.

    Trump caused much of this damage himself with his mouth. James Comey has the power to confirm that Trump committed an impeachable act. The hammer could begin to fall on Trump in one week, as former FBI Director Comey will give Congress credible testimony about Trump’s personal attempts to obstruct the Russia investigation.

  8. NASA are sending a probe to the Sun next year, or, strictly, it’s outer atmospher. It’s primary objective is to closely examine the Sun’s corona (outer atmosphere) and answer questions about the source of the solar wind. Using gravity assist, it will reach speeds of up to 720,000 kph and approach to within 6.5 million km of the sun’s surface, about 8 times closer than the closest planet (Mercury).

    And to avoid overheating they’ll send it up at night.

  9. Head of DOJ fraud unit joins Robert Mueller’s investigation into Trump and Russia

    The chief of the Fraud Section in Department of Justice’s Criminal Division is reportedly joining former FBI Director Robert Mueller’s team to assist with the investigation into Russia’s interference in the U.S. election and possible ties to President Donald Trump’s campaign.

    According to Bloomberg:

    Weissmann’s specialties have included corporate fraud and foreign bribery. For two and half years, he has overseen investigations into Volkswagen AG over diesel-cheating, global banks over market manipulation and Brazil’s state-owned oil company Petrobras over corrupt payments.

  10. ‘He is the root of dysfunction’: Right-wing WSJ editorial shreds Trump for sowing White House ‘chaos’

    The Wall Street Journal’s conservative editorial page has written a blistering editorial calling out President Donald Trump for sowing “chaos” in the White House — and it says that Trump has no one to blame for it but himself.

    “Mr. Trump certainly needs to fix his White House mess, but staff changes won’t matter unless the President accepts that he is the root of the dysfunction,” the editors write.

  11. A quick review of 40 years of investigations into Donald Trump and his businesses

    As is often the case, though, Trump’s argument against his opponent is one that might just as easily be leveled against him. Over the past four decades, Trump, his employees and his businesses have been the subject of a range of investigations at every level of government.

  12. Your on the loo; stoned; your in the middle of anther mind blowing tweet and you Lawyer knocks; what expletive do you send? Covfefe might be a contender..

  13. Good Morning Bludgers 🙂
    Wonder how Prime Minister Trumble is feeling having associated himself with a POTUS who is the embodiment of an Appalachian Hillbilly loon who has been hitting the Xanax too hard!?!

  14. What’s all this about? Why was this protection given to the RCs?

    “We need to remove the diplomatic protection that the Catholic Church has used to avoid accountability and avoid producing key documents for the royal commission.”

    He said the royal commission had made it “very clear” that the diplomatic protection the Australian Government granted the Catholic Church in 1973 “must be challenged”.

    “We need to rescind that special protection that has only been handed to one religious organisation on the planet. Imagine for one minute a politician suggesting granting diplomatic recognition to the religion of, say, Sunni Islam or Scientology or the Anglican Church. There would be outrage, and quite rightly.

  15. frednk @ #13 Thursday, June 1, 2017 at 6:53 am

    Your on the loo; stoned; your in the middle of anther mind blowing tweet and you Lawyer knocks; what expletive do you send? Covfefe might be a contender..

    Sometimes it is the little things that blow credibility apart. This tells people a lot about Trump. In his position, everything is examined in minute detail, and if he does not know that, he should.

    It is not much, it is a typo, everybody makes those. What is important is that he did not delete the tweet and retweet the correct version.

    With regard to the little things, what idiot decided to use a large length of sticky tape to hold down the tail of Trump’s tie, (Trump?) it blew up in the wind showing it, when a bit of double sided tape would have worked well and been invisible. Or just tuck the tail in your shirt if you are desperate. But not sticky tape for goodness sake.

  16. ACOSS CEO Dr Cassandra Goldie said, “The proposal to cut the Energy Supplement will directly hit people already living in poverty by slashing between $4 to $7 per week from people trying to survive on social security payments, including the $38-per-day Newstart Allowance.

    “Pensioners, carers, people with disability, people who are unemployed, and single parents all stand to have their social security base income cut if the bill to slash the Energy Supplement is passed.

    “Poverty and inequality would worsen and our unemployment payment, which is more than $100 per week below the poverty line, would be cut by $4.40 per week. Pensions would be cut by $7 per week.

    “Cutting payments to people who are locked out of paid work will not help them find a job. Instead, it will make it tougher as they will struggle even more to put a roof over their head and put food on the table. For many people, $7 pays for a family meal, an outfit for kids or travel to look for work.

    “Despite being an essential service, in less than a decade electricity prices have skyrocketed by more than 80%, disconnections have increased by 47%, the number of households on hardship measures has risen, and more households are rationing energy to the detriment of their health and well-being.

    “Low-income households also continue to suffer housing stress with 800,000 low-income households paying more than 30% of their income in rent and more than 100,000 people are homeless.

    “We commend the Nick Xenophon Team, Labor, the Greens, Senator Lambie and Senator Hinch, for previously rejecting this and other cruel measures. We urge them to stay firm.

  17. Morning all. The loss of President Baldwin would be a blow to international comedy. Maybe Trump just needed coffee?

  18. Peter Martin has an excellent column in today’s Fairfax the Adani.
    The only thing that makes sense is that they are preparing the mine for sale, with approvals it is an’asset’, no approvals it is just debt.
    He thinks they would retain the railway line and take profits from that, if someone starts mining the Gallilee basin.
    Sorry no link.

  19. Senior Liberal backbencher Russell Broadbent has quit two parliamentary positions in protest at the government’s treatment of aged care in his electorate.

    Broadbent, who holds the Victorian seat of McMillan, bluntly told Malcolm Turnbull at Tuesday’s Liberal Party meeting that he was standing down as chairman of the privileges committee and as a member of the Speaker’s panel, from which MPs deputise for Speaker Tony Smith.

    The privileges job – considered a very prestigious committee position – carries an allowance of A$21,900 per year; members of the Speaker’s panel get $5,980 per year.

    A surprised Turnbull, who had no notice of Broadbent’s intentions, sought to dissuade him but without success. Broadbent outlined the reasons for his decision to the meeting.

    The crux of the row is that the process for allocating places is a bureaucratic one, while Broadbent maintains politicians should have a greater involvement.

    He is angry that an aged care provider from outside his electorate, Menarock Aged Care Services, was awarded approval for a new 60-bed facility. He claims that “a better process may have given the local community a more beneficial outcome”.

    Separately, he believes Health Minister Greg Hunt and Aged Care Minister Ken Wyatt misled him over bed allocation for another facility, at Bunyip. He says they gave him the impression it would be awarded locally, but then indicated the decision rested with public servants.

    Broadbent said on Wednesday that the message being sent was that “little people don’t count” and “my resignations were to make the point that they do”. The 60-bed facility had been “awarded to wealthy city accountants” when the beds could have gone to a local provider, he said.

  20. Bill Shorten is not going to let the Tories get away with blackguarding him:

    Bill Shorten: ‘illogical’ PM cries wolf on NDIS and my tax plan

    Opposition Leader Bill Shorten will use a speech on Thursday to accuse the Turnbull government of “yelling about an NDIS emergency” while also hitting back against “doomsday warnings” from the Prime Minister on Labor’s tax plan.

  21. From the Guardian:

    In Farron’s closing statement, he urged voters to make a cup of tea instead of watching Rudd’s final remarks.
    “Amber Rudd is up next. She’s not the prime minister. The prime minister is not here tonight. She can’t be bothered. So why should you?
    “In fact, Bake Off is on BBC2 next. Why not make yourself a brew. You’re not worth Theresa May’s time. Don’t give her yours.”

  22. A recent analysis, led by Guillaume Chapron of Sweden’s Agricultural University, reveals a rising tide of assaults on environmental safeguards worldwide. If nothing else, it illustrates the sheer range and creativity of tactics used by those who seek to profit at the expense of nature.

    The assaults on environmental protections are so diverse that Chapron and his colleagues had to devise a new “taxonomy” to categorise them all. They have even set up a public database to track these efforts, giving us a laundry list of environmental rollbacks from around the world.

  23. Lizzie – But Broadbent will still toe the line. Doesn’t matter how fascist his party gets, he’ll give it his vote. Quite pathetic.

  24. Anton

    Well, I suppose he’s made his protest ‘real’ by removing himself from committees that would have given him extra moulah.

  25. “Helping coral reefs to safely navigate the Anthropocene is a profound challenge for multiscale governance,” the scientists say in a paper published today in the journal Nature.

    They argue reef conservation must no longer be seen as an attempt to restore reefs of the past, or conserve their existing values, but rather to identify the parts of reefs that are essential to their continued existence, and protect those.

    The paper comes amid increased urgency from conservationists and reef managers around the world, sparked by the worst global bleaching event in recorded history. It caused mass die-offs in every major coral reef region of the world. On the Great Barrier Reef alone, it is estimated that about half the coral was killed in 2016 and 2017.

  26. A great essay in The Monthly by Richard Denniss: Grandfathering the Australian dream
    House prices, insecure work and growing debts … Who can afford a stake in today’s society?

    I sometimes think that real Australian values used to be represented by those Australians in the POW camps in WW2 who collectivised to look after each other. Unfortunately those aren’t the Australian values the right wants Australia to retain, or return to.

  27. “With regard to the little things, what idiot decided to use a large length of sticky tape to hold down the tail of Trump’s tie…”

    I sometimes used a paper clip.

  28. The labour movement never really came to grips with the change to many people in professional careers who would still need industrial representation. Now the next big workplace revolution – the “gig economy” – is reaching a crunchpoint for half a generation not in a permanent full-time job. Will unions evolve to become credible and effective once more? Or will the decline in working conditions continue?

  29. Lizzie,
    I think AB11 is right. These Liberals, such as Broadbent and Christensen are being used to give the impression that the Liberal Party has a heart. As AB said, they haven’t put their money where their mouth is and crossed the floor to vote against their government. Or even done a Pauline and said they’d not vote for any government legislation until the situation was rectified.

    All show, no go.

  30. Morning all.

    PvO’s column from yesterday on PHON and their threats to the ABC:

    Just when you thought One Nation couldn’t become any more craven one of its senators has threatened to block the government’s budget measures unless ABC funding is slashed by $600m.

    Putting to one side the pathetic tit-for-tat game of blocking one policy script to pressure a government to enact another, what is the ABC’s crime exactly?

    Senator Brian Burston doesn’t like the way the ABC has reported on recent One Nation controversies. Of course he doesn’t — the odium of what’s been exposed damages the reputation of the minor party and its senior team, raising serious questions about the need for reform to its operations.

    The claim that the ABC has unfairly targeted One Nation is preposterous. The stories which have damaged the minor party’s credibility have been based on audio recordings of One Nation meetings. The likes of Pauline Hanson and James Ashby have no one to blame but themselves. Their own words say more than any editorialising by media organisations.

  31. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Twice as many households will be worse off under the federal government’s plan to raise the Medicare levy by half a percentage point than under Labor’s alternative, according to new modelling by the ANU’s Centre for Social Research and Methods.
    Investigators from the federal workplace watchdog have alleged fashion subscription start-up Her Fashion Box either grossly underpaid workers or paid them nothing at all. What IS it with some people?
    Peter Martin wanders why Adani is stringing us along by trying to bank the unbankable.
    Judith Ireland writes about the forgotten part of the Gonski 2.0 debate – preschoolers.
    Greg Jericho says that a ramping up in apartment construction could lead to a glut which sees values not just slow but fall – and fall fast.
    A labour activist researching working conditions in a Chinese factory that makes shoes for Ivanka Trump’s label has been detained by police, according to his wife and a labour advocacy group, while two others have gone missing and are presumed also to have been detained. Ivanka doing her part to Make America Great Again.
    What a disgraceful attack!
    Via Comical Ali the White House has put up the shutters with regard to questions on the Trump team and Russia.
    The incubator attached to Sydney Uni is in trouble again over its attitude to women.

  32. C@T

    He was protesting against unfairness in his electorate, so I suppose in that sense it was self-serving.

    TBH I’m never sure about Broadbent.

  33. Section 2 . . .

    NSW families who have moved from a single rate to a “time of use” electricity plan in an effort to cut costs may actually end up paying $370 more each year, new research shows. Ouch!
    Paul McGeough writes about the way the Trump/Russia investigations are going.
    In a move that will further isolate the US Trump is likely to announce that he is pulling out of the Paris climate change accord. Google.
    This Washington Post contributor reckons that Trump should spend a lot more time overseas. All of it in fact!
    The ACCC says it is investigating a number of internet providers and expects to drag several to court for dudding their customers with slow broadband speeds. The sooner the better!
    An estimated 4,300 people are now enslaved in Australia, a parliamentary inquiry has been told, but Australian companies are also linked to slave-like supply chains overseas, where tens of millions work in bondage.
    Greg Sheridan is not happy with how the government is managing security policy. Google
    The author of the book “Cardinal: The Rise and Fall of George Pell” writes that cries of ‘witch hunt’ ring hollow for Catholic clergy victims.
    APRA has written to the boards of all 15 industry superannuation funds to find out if they were involved with a controversial TV campaign launched by the employee and union-backed fund body Industry Super Australia. Perhaps the industry funds are guilty of consistently outperforming retail superannuation funds. Google.

  34. Section 3 . . .

    John Warhurst has written a good article on the SSM debate which has, through the government’s inability to deal with the issue, become very personal.
    Elizabeth Knight says “Be afraid. The future of Australian media rests with Pauline Hanson”.
    And the SMH editorial says that One Nation’s threat to blackmail the Australian people by demanding cuts to ABC funding was a disgrace. The ultimatum stood for almost a day before its stupidity dawned on party leader Pauline Hanson and she backed off.
    Ian Macdonald is a bloody idiot!
    Tony Wright on Barnaby’s florid excesses in parliament.

  35. Section 4 . . .

    Australian Federal Police Commissioner Andrew Colvin says he was “saddened and surprised” by the abrupt firing of FBI director James Comey by US President Donald Trump.
    More Centrelink changes.
    And a social services official has told Senate estimates she does not know if drugs council warning against testing those on welfare was considered.
    Senior Liberal backbencher Russell Broadbent has quit two parliamentary positions in protest at the government’s treatment of aged care in his electorate.
    David Marr’s masterful discussion of the politics of race in Australia in his recent Quarterly Essay, ‘The White Queen: One Nation and the Politics of Race’ leaves important questions unanswered, writes Dr Barry Hindess.–the-black-prince,10353
    Stephen Koukoulas tells us that the pressure is building for the Reserve Bank to cut interest rates. And not just once, but several times in the months ahead.
    Margaret Court, a rabidly religious zealot has the gall to accuse gays and others of getting to children to adopt their way of life! How on earth does her religion survive?

  36. Section 5 . . . Cartoon Corner

    Alan Moir goes to town on Barnaby and indigenous recognition.

    Broelman has a soul mate for Pauline.

    A frightening contribution from David Rowe.

    David Pope indicates that the dog whistle isn’t working so well these days.
    Mark Knight and the Baghdad bombing.
    Jon Kudelka on how to weather Estimates hearings.

  37. Wow, Guardian reports that the latest YouGov poll (in the Times) shows only a 3pt Tory lead (down from 6pts a week ago) Its now 42 – 39 instead of 43 – 36.

  38. I wonder what Malcolm thinks about the whole Margaret Court saga? He was the one who said we could debate the issue of ssm without anyone getting hurt…

  39. Australia Post has sold one of Sydney’s most historic buildings, the GPO on Martin Place, to Singaporean billionaires Robert and Phillip Ng in a secretive deal, despite concerns raised in a heritage report it commissioned last year and never made public.

    Australia Post sold the property – subject to final regulatory approval – to Singaporean international property developer Far East, controlled by the Ng brothers, in March for $150 million. It has never announced the deal.

    The deal appears to deliver significant value to Far East, which has plans for new multi-level retail shops that raise questions over use of existing open space and protection of heritage elements.

    Fairfax Media has obtained a heritage report commissioned by Australia Post in April last year from Ian Stapleton of Lucas Stapleton & Johnson, the original heritage architects for the redevelopment of the 1 Martin Place complex in 1999, that stresses the benefits of keeping the GPO in Australian ownership.

    The report warns: “The sale or alienation of the place is considered to be very undesirable.

  40. Inside Margaret’s incoherent and illogical ramblings I think I have discovered the core of her problem.

    “Tennis is full of lesbians. Even when I was playing there were only a couple there but those couple that led took young ones into parties,” Court said. “And what you get at the top is often what you’ll get right through that sport.”

    She wasn’t invited.

  41. Thanks BK. I saw earlier news of the White House no longer taking questsions on Trump’s Russian connections. With various inquiries going on and key people about to testify to the House, how on earth can the administration refuse to answer questions?

  42. On that depressing note, I must be off. I wonder what the robber barons who run our country have in store for us today? Have a good day all.

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