Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Harmony between the regular pollsters as Essential Research ticks another point back in favour of the Coalition.

NOTE: Nothing new I can report on the comments debacle, sadly. All I can do is reiterate that it’s not supposed to be this way, and the intention is that it will be fixed. If you use Google Chrome, as you should, this plug-in will get the blog looking more like it ought to (with thanks to AR).

UPDATE: We’re all good again. Thank you for your forbearance, where applicable.

Essential Research is now back in line with Newspoll, with the latest reading of its fortnight rolling average recording Labor with a lead of 53-47 after a one point gain for the Coalition. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 37%, Labor is down one to 36%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation is steady on 8%. Also featured:

• Questions on political donations, including from whom political parties should be allowed to accept them, which records a net positive only from “individual Australian voters”, and heavily negative results for unions, companies (especially foreign), property developers and casinos. Forty-one per cent support a ban on foreign donations to activist groups, with only 31% opposed.

• On the government’s proposed changes to the Racial Discrimination Act, there is an all but perfect split between strongly support, strongly oppose and no strong opinion either way, following a question that explains the finer detail of the change.

• Fifty-one per cent support and 20% oppose “a carbon emissions trading scheme in the electricity sector to provide more incentive for investing in renewable energy and low-carbon electricity”, demonstrating how much difference including the rationale in the question makes when gauging such issues.

• A question on who should have tax deductibility for donations has churches and religious groups ranking second after “groups that campaign on social issues” at the bottom of the list.

• Respondents were asked which interests were represented by Labor, Liberal and the Greens, and received the responses you would expect, with little change recorded since the question was previously posed in September 2015.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,488 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

Comments Page 49 of 50
1 … 48 49 50

  3. bushfire bill @ #2343 Monday, April 10, 2017 at 7:29 pm

    Back to the same old format.
    Back to the same old shit fight.
    Whoever it was last week who said the short-lived “experimental” format sucked the life out of flame wars here, the bitching and the insults was absolutely spot on.
    Take a look at yourselves. You’re a disgrace! Self-indulgent, vain, lacking in self-awareness… and most depressingly… deeply, deeply boring.

    If it bothers you that much then learn to use the scroll button. Or install STFU. Or go somewhere else.

  4. bushfire bill @ #2400 Monday, April 10, 2017 at 8:29 pm

    It IS laughable. So many here refusing to speak to each other, banning each other’s posts or taking to insults. Much of the talk is about how to get around the latest bodgy version of code. Nothing more hilarious that a post that reads “test”.
    The fact that PB is not advised in advance of any changes shows just how much the self-styled gurus here figure in the grand scheme of things. Or even the Crikey scheme of things. They don’t give a shit about you, yet you continue to believe your anonymous opinions move mountains and that you own particular understanding of the science of whatever-it-is is superior to everyone else’s, giving you licence to insult, slur, cast aspersions, question the mental state of fellow posters and generally slag each other to death… when you’re not pointedly ignoring each other, and letting everyone know you are doing so.

    Hilarious stuff!
    I much prefer PB, warts and all, to the dictatorship on another blog.

  5. A legal minefield, but a well written piece by (I think) a former Bludger.

    Who will follow Day into the Senate? When an election result is upset, the ballots are recounted as if the miscreant had died during the campaign. Each ballot is treated as if the offending name had never been printed, the count skipping on to the next preferenced candidate. Since people vote for party tickets in the Senate, this means – fairly – that the party should keep the seat.

    In this case, Family First’s number 2 was the Kenyan-born Lucy Gichuhi. Normally progressives would cheer at the unique prospect of a young woman of African background entering parliament. Instead, questions are being raised about Gichuhi’s qualifications to be elected. Was she a dual-citizen when she stood last year, which would disqualify her?

    She says “no” – her Kenyan citizenship, she contends, was lost at the moment she took out Australian citizenship. But, to blend some metaphors, comparative citizenship law is no cup of tea, so a second lawyer’s picnic beckons. Gichuhicould formally renounce any vestige of her alleged Kenyan citizenship in the coming weeks, before she is sworn in to the Senate. But that obvious solution to any doubts about her fealty to Oz won’t be allowed. In the pure logic of the law, if she had dual citizenship when nominations closed then she too will be treated as if she had been a dead candidate. And then? All we know is that Family First will be robbed and some other party will luck the seat, because the party only nominated two candidates.

    http://insidestory.org.au/entitled-to-vote-then-you-should-be-entitled-to-run

    Maybe there is a case to be made for relaxing some of the laws around electoral eligibility. But equally, perhaps we need stronger scrutiny of candidates to ensure these kinds of things don’t crop up again? One for the lawyers no doubt.

  7. confessions @ #2405 Monday, April 10, 2017 at 8:37 pm

    A legal minefield, but a well written piece by (I think) a former Bludger.

    Maybe there is a case to be made for relaxing some of the laws around electoral eligibility. But equally, perhaps we need stronger scrutiny of candidates to ensure these kinds of things don’t crop up again? One for the lawyers no doubt.

    Do you really think that lowering the standards of our politicians even further is a good idea?

    The requirements to run for office are so well known that it is incumbent on party administrations to do their own vetting and get it right. It’s not that hard to check that someone is over 18, an Australian citizen, hasn’t been convicted of a criminal offence punishable by greater 1 year in jail and isn’t bankrupt.

  9. Fess:

    My understanding is that the AEC at times barely manages its main functions (outside of elections). I really dont have much faith in their other processes (candidate declarations, citizenships etc)

  10. grimace @ #2403 Monday, April 10, 2017 at 8:30 pm

    bushfire bill @ #2343 Monday, April 10, 2017 at 7:29 pm

    Back to the same old format.
    Back to the same old shit fight.
    Whoever it was last week who said the short-lived “experimental” format sucked the life out of flame wars here, the bitching and the insults was absolutely spot on.
    Take a look at yourselves. You’re a disgrace! Self-indulgent, vain, lacking in self-awareness… and most depressingly… deeply, deeply boring.

    If it bothers you that much then learn to use the scroll button. Or install STFU. Or go somewhere else.

    He should go back to his own blog of batshit insanity.

  11. Lizzie,

    Is this true?

    Fed ALP support change to Native Title Act so #adani can go ahead

    If so, I’m ashamed of them.

    A lengthy article: https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2017/mar/21/labor-to-support-native-title-changes-to-protect-mining-deals

    Labor will support the Turnbull government’s move to amend the Native Title Act following a shock federal court decision striking out a native title deal in Western Australia last month.

    It means mining projects – including Adani’s Carmichael coalmine – already in operation under Indigenous land use agreements (ILUAs) may not be affected by the federal court’s ruling.

    The news has angered Wangan and Jagalingou traditional owners fighting Adani’s mine. They have accused Labor of “lining up with the government” to wind back their rights.

    ::::::
    But the Minerals Council of Australia, the Queensland Resources Council and the Chamber of Minerals and Energy of Western Australia have welcomed the recommendations from the legal and constitutional affairs legislation committee.

    “The resources sector looks forward to the parliament passing the amendment bill as speedily as possible to remove any doubt about the legal status of a large number of native title agreements across Australia,” a joint statement says.

  12. C’mon Bemused you make 20 comments a day every day and if you reckon 3 of them weren’t having a go at Gillard when she was PM then you are in denial

  13. http://wanganjagalingou.com.au/govt-fails-to-pass-native-title-bill-major-setback-for-adani/

    “It is clear this controversial Bill does not sit well with many Labor and crossbench MPs, and the incompetent rush with which Attorney General Brandis went about it added insult to injury.

    “While we welcome Labor’s resistance on some elements of the bill, which has prevented its passage through the Senate, it doesn’t diminish their unacceptable support for the key measures.

    “The Senate Inquiry’s recommendations, backed by Labor, wind back Aboriginal rights after the Federal Court restored the balance in the Native Title Act. But if the amendments Labor supports are eventually passed, it will strip away protections and hand mining companies like Adani the means to divide and conquer us.

  14. Ides:

    Yes I do understand the AEC is stretched, and that when it comes to micro parties, which often crop up at the barest hint of an election, they don’t have the administrative infrastructure that can appropriately vet candidates. But surely there is some way to improve things.

  15. BB

    Nothing more hilarious that a post that reads “test”.

    FFS. Given how “variable” this site is a “test” is about seeing whether a lack of comments is a rare quiet period or the PB gerbils are at it again. Your problem with that is ?

  16. bushfire bill @ #2400 Monday, April 10, 2017 at 8:29 pm

    It IS laughable. So many here refusing to speak to each other, banning each other’s posts or taking to insults. Much of the talk is about how to get around the latest bodgy version of code. Nothing more hilarious that a post that reads “test”.

    And the problem with your post is that at least half the people you have directed it at won’t realize it, and will assume you have directed it at the other half of the posters here.

    Including me, of course … : )

  17. Adani’s Carmichael coalmine – already in operation under Indigenous land use agreements (ILUAs)
    Xerox, does that mean there are Indigenous land use agreements already in operation?

  18. paaptsef @ #2412 Monday, April 10, 2017 at 8:49 pm

    C’mon Bemused you make 20 comments a day every day and if you reckon 3 of them weren’t having a go at Gillard when she was PM then you are in denial

    In commenting on politics I occasionally reference a politician.
    When Gillard was receiving a lot of attention I naturally offered an occasional opinion, some positive, some negative.
    I expressed outrage over ‘At Home With Julia’ and I defended her over that old stuff when she was at Slater & Gordon.
    When she performed well I commented favourably, when she stuffed up, I expressed critical views.
    So what is your problem or are you just a troll?

  19. Pegasus,

    Thanks for the link.

    I am sure it was just a coincidence you highlighted that particular extract and not the part which notes that Senator Dodson supports the position put forward by labor and that labor has made it clear that its decision is all about native title and is all about restoring the status quo that existed prior to the recent Federal Court decision. As well, labor intended to introduce amendments to the government legislation.

    Cheers.

  20. And your point, Pegasus, is?

    Do the slimy Greens, absent as they are of even one Indigenous MP in their ranks in federal parliament, think that the Federal Parliamentary Labor Party, which contains within it’s ranks,
    Senator Dr Patrick Dodson, Senator Maladirri Macarthy and Linda Burney MP, Australia’s first female Indigenous Member of the Lower House, would approve and support the changes to the Native Title Act that a recent Federal Court case caused them to have to contemplate, that was in any way detrimental to their own people!?!

    You sanctimonious, slimy Greens make me want to puke the way you cast aspersions Labor’s way in your absolutely flimsy, high-handed and baseless fashion. Too regularly for it to be a mere coincidence.

    No wonder Indigenous Australians want to represent the Labor Party and not The Greens, the way you use them as political footballs.

  21. Oh hilarious!!!

    Sky News Australia
    56 mins ·
    Sky News contributor Peta Credlin says it was ‘dumb’ for Treasurer Scott Morrison MP – ScoMo to pick a fight with 2GB873’s The Ray Hadley Morning Show. MORE https://www.facebook.com/SkyNewsAustralia/videos/10154467694176728/

    Most people outside of Sydney haven’t a clue who Ray Hadley is, and wasn’t this a case of Hadley banning ScoMo, thereby picking a fight with him, rather than the other way round?

  23. Bemused, while you were making your 4000 posts attacking a Labor PM were you concerned about the problems facing Australia or are you just a LNP shill?

  24. Bemused,
    Just read your comment @4:53pm.
    I think the reality will fall somewhere between the two camps. That is, Renewables + Baseload Storage will eventually be economically, scientifically and technically viable. Until then we need to retire Coal-Fired Power Stations, build no new ones BUT we may have to transition through the Gas-Fired Power Station era. Which would hopefully come to an end, sooner rather than later as Renewable technology becomes the overwhelmingly economic option with overwhelmingly global benefit.

    As I read it, Fossil Fuels would then only be needed to produce those products which cannot be produced from any other material, but would no longer be used for Power Generation. Though I am hopeful that new Materials will be developed to replace even them.

  25. paaptsef @ #2423 Monday, April 10, 2017 at 9:04 pm

    Bemused, while you were making your 4000 posts attacking a Labor PM were you concerned about the problems facing Australia or are you just a LNP shill?

    Well we’ve had fake news, now we have fake posts.
    I am a Life Member of the ALP who has campaigned for Labor in every election since 1970.

  27. I would actually support everyone boycotting Morrison. He adds nothing to any debate. I would also support any politician boycotting Hadley.

  28. Poroti
    Drove from Wellington to Auckland by way of Taupo and Hamilton. The East road to Taupo was blocked by an operation to fish a truck out of Lake Taupo. We then set off on the West road. This was blocked by a truck that had got stuck on a sharp bend. Oi Vey. Then stayed for three nights on Waiheke for wine and a family wedding, and then back to Wellington by way of Miranda, Thames, Coromandel, Rotorua and Palmerston North. Te Papa was very interesting, particularly the Maori cultural stuff, the geological stuff and the representation of Gallipoli, which I thought was a bit off centre, New Zealand in reality not actually being the centre of the world.
    We saw a couple of hundred ml of rain fall, several hundred land sleps (two of which chose to seriously delay our progress), and several thousand acres of flooded land.
    Best was exposure to things like Te Reo, the Maori TV channel (very exciting that Maori now has official language status in NZ). Zealandia the predator-proof place in the hills above Wellington where lots of endangered endemic birds are being re-introduced was moving. Visual highlight was definitely the Tongariro complex and trying to get across the basics of NZ geology. The latter is rendered a constant challenge because everything seems to be on the move, up, down or sideways. The olefactory lowlight was the Wai-O-Tapu springs area. My best cross cultural moment was when I offered a group of kiwis some more Brush-tailed Possums should they need them. I followed this up by pointing out that the whole under arm bowling thing had been blown out of all proporation. After all, it was only a minor inadvertant problem with a rotator cuff.
    The politics is definitely less vicious than it is in Australia.
    I admired in particular the stoicism of the plucky kiwis faced with all sorts of nasties many of which duly arrived while we were over there.
    PC has apparently not entirely dampened the NZ sense of humour. For example, were one to be a woman interested in joining an all fem fishing charter, complete with woman skipper, one had only to contact ‘Fish N Tits’.
    Am about to re-read Crosby’s ‘Musket Wars’, this time, I hope with a bit better understanding of Maori culture and NZ geography.
    I think we will need to go back cos there was lots of stuff we did not have time to do.

  29. c@tmomma @ #2424 Monday, April 10, 2017 at 9:07 pm

    Bemused,
    Just read your comment @4:53pm.
    I think the reality will fall somewhere between the two camps. That is, Renewables + Baseload Storage will eventually be economically, scientifically and technically viable. Until then we need to retire Coal-Fired Power Stations, build no new ones BUT we may have to transition through the Gas-Fired Power Station era. Which would hopefully come to an end, sooner rather than later as Renewable technology becomes the overwhelmingly economic option with overwhelmingly global benefit.
    As I read it, Fossil Fuels would then only be needed to produce those products which cannot be produced from any other material, but would no longer be used for Power Generation. Though I am hopeful that new Materials will be developed to replace even them.

    Where I disagree is on several points.
    1. Baseload is an artificial construct (John Quiggin has written on this) that came about because it was too hard to shut down coal fired generators so that left a lot of excess power at night which was sold cheap, so creating the market for it. The true overnight demand would be much lower.
    2. Coal fired plants will shut down over a period of time and the remaining coal plants should meet the minimal ‘baseload’ demand.
    3. Storage evens out the fluctuations and will to a growing extent meet baseload demand.
    We will keep gas plants operating as coal shuts down and in some particular circumstances may build more. But large scale building of gas plants instead of renewable (inc. storage) is akin to building FTTN instead of FTTP.

  31. BB “…yet you continue to believe your anonymous opinions move mountains”

    Who believes that? Maybe my opinions move a moderately sized hillock. Or maybe a grassy knoll. Or maybe a molehill. Or maybe not.

  32. I would actually support everyone boycotting Morrison. He adds nothing to any debate. I would also support any politician boycotting Hadley.

    Well unfortunately Morrison is the Treasurer, so he’ll always have an audience somewhere.

    But the hilarious thing for me is that Ray Hadley (and by extension Peta Credlin) seriously believe Morrison being banned from Hadley’s show is serious blow to him and the govt.

    “Ray who?” asks anyone anywhere other than Sydney.

  33. Gillard was OK, got some stuff done that Rudd wanted her to do and excelled in programmatic specificity. Ran the whole thing really.
    Rudd meanwhile was amusing himself by giving plum jobs to retired Libs and obsessing about getting a job at the UN.

  34. c@tmomma @ #2424 Monday, April 10, 2017 at 9:07 pm

    I think the reality will fall somewhere between the two camps. That is, Renewables + Baseload Storage will eventually be economically, scientifically and technically viable. Until then we need to retire Coal-Fired Power Stations, build no new ones BUT we may have to transition through the Gas-Fired Power Station era. Which would hopefully come to an end, sooner rather than later as Renewable technology becomes the overwhelmingly economic option with overwhelmingly global benefit.

    Wow! Are you in for a world of pain on this site!

  36. Bemused @ 9.16pm,
    Essentially I agree. Except that I was buying into the orthodoxy about Baseload Power. Until the general public are disabused of that notion by their political leaders then we need to accommodate it. However, on the other hand I wonder how we deal with the High Tension Power Lines that are a legacy of the Coal-Fired Power Plants and nowhere near the Renewable centres of generation? They did cause a bit of a problem in SA. 😉

    Then again, I may not know what I am talking about. 🙂

  37. You can always tell when Morrison’s been rolled in Cabinet. He does his motor mouth thing because he’s so f’ken angry that he’s got to go out and lie through his teeth, again …

    It’s obvious that he wanted to do something about NG / CGT.

  39. Player One,
    Wow! Are you in for a world of pain on this site!

    I have developed thick skin from being in this public blogging game for a long, long time. Why I have even survived Bushfire Bill’s most rancid personal abuse. 🙂

  40. c@tmomma @ #2436 Monday, April 10, 2017 at 9:47 pm

    Bemused @ 9.16pm,
    Essentially I agree. Except that I was buying into the orthodoxy about Baseload Power. Until the general public are disabused of that notion by their political leaders then we need to accommodate it. However, on the other hand I wonder how we deal with the High Tension Power Lines that are a legacy of the Coal-Fired Power Plants and nowhere near the Renewable centres of generation? They did cause a bit of a problem in SA.
    Then again, I may not know what I am talking about.

    It seems to me that a grid is still useful to move power around but some parts of it may become largely stranded assets where it runs to coal fired power stations and new sections may need to be built to (say) large scale solar farms in rural areas.
    Outside of my field of expertise but just trying to state a logical view of things.

  41. CTar1,
    You can always tell when Morrison’s been rolled in Cabinet. He does his motor mouth thing because he’s so f’ken angry that he’s got to go out and lie through his teeth, again …

    Yes, and I wonder who ordered him to go on the Jon Faine show instead of Hadley? Someone with a wicked way with turning the screws.

  42. c@tmomma @ #2439 Monday, April 10, 2017 at 9:51 pm

    Player One,
    Wow! Are you in for a world of pain on this site!
    I have developed thick skin from being in this public blogging game for a long, long time. Why I have even survived Bushfire Bill’s most rancid personal abuse.

    You don’t squeal if someone disagrees. And you give as good as you get.
    There really are some sooks on this site.

  44. confessions @ #2405 Monday, April 10th, 2017 – 8:37 pm

    Maybe there is a case to be made for relaxing some of the laws around electoral eligibility. But equally, perhaps we need stronger scrutiny of candidates to ensure these kinds of things don’t crop up again?

    I favor the second option. Dual citizenship is political offices creates a fairly naked conflict of interest.

    And I also favor concluding that if a party is so disorganized that it can’t field even a single valid candidate then they’re not entitled to retain any votes they may have received. Some basic level of political competence should be a prerequisite, and consideration alongside fairness to voters. It’s not fair to society for blatant incompetence to be tolerated with no consequences whatsoever.

  46. Wow! I did not know this:

    The Nationals in Queensland (and elsewhere, to a lesser extent) have long faced a threat from the Australian League of Rights, an extreme and virulently anti-Semitic, right-wing group that was at its peak in the 1950s and 1960s. When it wasn’t undermining the Country Party (as the Nationals were then called), the League sought to infiltrate and influence the party.

    Partly in response, federal Country Party leader Doug Anthony (deputy prime minister 1971–72 and 1975–83) helped organise a massive recruiting drive that made the Queensland division of the party the largest political branch in the land. Key figures, including long-time senator Ron Boswell, kept up the fight against the League and its ideas.

    While the League still operates in the shadows, much of its following has shifted to One Nation – a fact not lost on present-day Nationals. They are wary of the vow by the LNP leader, Tim Nicholls, a former Liberal, to keep his options open in dealing with One Nation at the next election. Old-time Nationals sniff betrayal.

    http://insidestory.org.au/the-coalitions-restless-bedfellows

  47. a r @ #2444 Monday, April 10, 2017 at 9:58 pm

    confessions @ #2405 Monday, April 10th, 2017 – 8:37 pm

    Maybe there is a case to be made for relaxing some of the laws around electoral eligibility. But equally, perhaps we need stronger scrutiny of candidates to ensure these kinds of things don’t crop up again?

    I favor the second option. Dual citizenship is political offices creates a fairly naked conflict of interest.
    And I also favor concluding that if a party is so disorganized that it can’t field even a single valid candidate then they’re not entitled to retain any votes they may have received. Some basic level of political competence should be a prerequisite, and consideration alongside fairness to voters. It’s not fair to society for blatant incompetence to be tolerated with no consequences whatsoever.

    It should not be difficult for parties to vet their candidates.
    Get them to complete a Stat Dec answering relevant questions such as:
    1. Have you ever held citizenship other than Australian.
    2. If your answer to 1. is ‘yes’, please advise what steps you have taken to renounce that citizenship and what documents you can produce to verify those steps.

    A false declaration is an offence punishable by law. Only a fool would make such a declaration.

  48. c@tmomma @ #2446 Monday, April 10, 2017 at 10:03 pm

    Wow! I did not know this:

    The Nationals in Queensland (and elsewhere, to a lesser extent) have long faced a threat from the Australian League of Rights, an extreme and virulently anti-Semitic, right-wing group that was at its peak in the 1950s and 1960s. When it wasn’t undermining the Country Party (as the Nationals were then called), the League sought to infiltrate and influence the party.
    Partly in response, federal Country Party leader Doug Anthony (deputy prime minister 1971–72 and 1975–83) helped organise a massive recruiting drive that made the Queensland division of the party the largest political branch in the land. Key figures, including long-time senator Ron Boswell, kept up the fight against the League and its ideas.
    While the League still operates in the shadows, much of its following has shifted to One Nation – a fact not lost on present-day Nationals. They are wary of the vow by the LNP leader, Tim Nicholls, a former Liberal, to keep his options open in dealing with One Nation at the next election. Old-time Nationals sniff betrayal.

    http://insidestory.org.au/the-coalitions-restless-bedfellows

    The League of Rights had its leader, Eric Butler, based in Victoria but seemed to get less traction here. He was occasionally interviewed on TV. They also had a bookshop in Melbourne stocked with an amazing variety of anti-semitic and extreme right material.

  50. And I also favor concluding that if a party is so disorganized that it can’t field even a single valid candidate then they’re not entitled to retain any votes they may have received.

    Excellently put. I agree entirely.

Comments Page 49 of 50
1 … 48 49 50

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *