Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor

Harmony between the regular pollsters as Essential Research ticks another point back in favour of the Coalition.

NOTE: Nothing new I can report on the comments debacle, sadly. All I can do is reiterate that it’s not supposed to be this way, and the intention is that it will be fixed. If you use Google Chrome, as you should, this plug-in will get the blog looking more like it ought to (with thanks to AR).

UPDATE: We’re all good again. Thank you for your forbearance, where applicable.

Essential Research is now back in line with Newspoll, with the latest reading of its fortnight rolling average recording Labor with a lead of 53-47 after a one point gain for the Coalition. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up two to 37%, Labor is down one to 36%, the Greens are steady on 10% and One Nation is steady on 8%. Also featured:

• Questions on political donations, including from whom political parties should be allowed to accept them, which records a net positive only from “individual Australian voters”, and heavily negative results for unions, companies (especially foreign), property developers and casinos. Forty-one per cent support a ban on foreign donations to activist groups, with only 31% opposed.

• On the government’s proposed changes to the Racial Discrimination Act, there is an all but perfect split between strongly support, strongly oppose and no strong opinion either way, following a question that explains the finer detail of the change.

• Fifty-one per cent support and 20% oppose “a carbon emissions trading scheme in the electricity sector to provide more incentive for investing in renewable energy and low-carbon electricity”, demonstrating how much difference including the rationale in the question makes when gauging such issues.

• A question on who should have tax deductibility for donations has churches and religious groups ranking second after “groups that campaign on social issues” at the bottom of the list.

• Respondents were asked which interests were represented by Labor, Liberal and the Greens, and received the responses you would expect, with little change recorded since the question was previously posed in September 2015.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,488 comments on “Essential Research: 53-47 to Labor”

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  1. greensborough growler @ #2295 Monday, April 10, 2017 at 6:22 pm

    Barney,
    Not today.
    Go back and look at the crap served up by CC, Grimace and Bemused today. All of it is gratuitous insults with the sole intention of belittling and bullying P1 because she refuses to buckle to their allegedly “informed” views.

    Forget about it GG – I don’t even see it, except when others quote their posts. I have all three of these posters on my little list, and each time they post all they do is make it clearer exactly why.

  3. lizzie @ #2272 Monday, April 10, 2017 at 5:45 pm

    Bemused

    The mainstream opinion is that renewables (with storage) will replace coal.
    The P1 opinion is that renewables cannot be built fast enough so we must go to gas to replace coal.

    I would have thought that some gas will still be part of the mix for a while.

    Yes, we already have some and that will be kept for a while or until EOL.
    Some will be built in particular situations like South Australia. But I doubt building of gas fired plants will be undertaken on a large scale.
    I don’t think anyone is saying no gas in the short term.
    The only gas plants I see being built in the longer term are biogas plants which burn gas from organic waste that would otherwise leak into the atmosphere. I saw a segment on a project at Cowra over the weekend.

  4. BK

    The trouble is that the preparations would contain absolutely ZERO melatonin.

    No…but that is why it works so well: the water retains the memory of the melatonin! 😀

  7. bk @ #2281 Monday, April 10, 2017 at 6:05 pm

    I have just seen an ad for Chemist Warehouse selling homeopathic melatonin tablets and spray for sleeplessness.
    All I can say is FFS!!!!!!!
    HOW CAN THEY GET AWAY WITH THIS?

    My local Chemists Warehouse also has a Naturopath there some of the time and has even set up a ‘con-sulting room’ for him.
    Melatonin does work, but we all know the story on anything ‘homeopathic’.
    They get away with it because no-one will prosecute for fraud or mis-representation or anything else.

  9. Oh, it looks like the comments are back to normal on chrome. Woohoo!
    I’m starting to feel like a bot designed for the purpose of advertising Showtimes The Circus, but if you aren’t watching it then you really are missing out. It’s quickly becoming one of the best politically themed documentary series ever made. The latest episode focuses on Syria and the Assad regime.

    It also includes a cameo by Corey Booker, who in my humble peanut gallery pop-corn eater opinion, is the next Democratic POTUS.

  10. maybe there was a different part of the demolition done today not sure about that. Definitely no better effort put into suppressing coal dust though.

  12. The recent full Federal Court decision re Native Title legislation has left the current legislation in many ways in limbo that could have adverse effects on any number of current and future court cases.

    Labor had given conditional support for the proposed changes proposed by the government but the government has yet to put the legislation before Parliament.

    The changes have not been introduced specifically to assist Adami but as a result of the above Federal Court decision.

    Any more in depth analysis would be better left in the hands of those with legal knowledge and or experience.

    Cheers.

  13. grimace @ #2299 Monday, April 10, 2017 at 6:25 pm

    @ BK
    I 100% accept that homeopathic preparations are totally ineffective beyond the placebo effect and I think that labelling to that effect should be included with all homeopathic products. I also suspect that selling homeopathic products in pharmacies has the proprietor travelling very close to the line on breaches to the pharmacists code of professional conduct, if not in breach of it, which, unfortunately goes on unenforced by the pharmacy guild.
    It’s a blessing in disguise that there is zero melatonin in the products being sold. I’d hate to think of the human and financial impact that the problems caused by self regulated melatonin consumption would cause.

    I use an occasional low dose to help me get to sleep. Sure beats insomnia and the hungover feeling the next day. And it beats addictive products such as Temazapan.

  15. bemused @ #2313 Monday, April 10, 2017 at 6:49 pm

    grimace @ #2299 Monday, April 10, 2017 at 6:25 pm

    @ BK
    I 100% accept that homeopathic preparations are totally ineffective beyond the placebo effect and I think that labelling to that effect should be included with all homeopathic products. I also suspect that selling homeopathic products in pharmacies has the proprietor travelling very close to the line on breaches to the pharmacists code of professional conduct, if not in breach of it, which, unfortunately goes on unenforced by the pharmacy guild.
    It’s a blessing in disguise that there is zero melatonin in the products being sold. I’d hate to think of the human and financial impact that the problems caused by self regulated melatonin consumption would cause.

    I use an occasional low dose to help me get to sleep. Sure beats insomnia and the hungover feeling the next day. And it beats addictive products such as Temazapan.

    That’s OK but just make sure you never overdose on the homeopathic stuff!

  16. bk @ #2315 Monday, April 10, 2017 at 6:59 pm

    bemused @ #2313 Monday, April 10, 2017 at 6:49 pm

    grimace @ #2299 Monday, April 10, 2017 at 6:25 pm

    @ BK
    I 100% accept that homeopathic preparations are totally ineffective beyond the placebo effect and I think that labelling to that effect should be included with all homeopathic products. I also suspect that selling homeopathic products in pharmacies has the proprietor travelling very close to the line on breaches to the pharmacists code of professional conduct, if not in breach of it, which, unfortunately goes on unenforced by the pharmacy guild.
    It’s a blessing in disguise that there is zero melatonin in the products being sold. I’d hate to think of the human and financial impact that the problems caused by self regulated melatonin consumption would cause.

    I use an occasional low dose to help me get to sleep. Sure beats insomnia and the hungover feeling the next day. And it beats addictive products such as Temazapan.

    That’s OK but just make sure you never overdose on the homeopathic stuff!

    Funny guy!
    I wouldn’t be sucked in by that scam. 😀

  17. Hola bludgers
    You know one of the things that puzzles me in the energy wars here, is this.
    If people put each other on STFU, how can they meaningfully engage in the debate?
    I’ve been following a lot of it, and learning a lot, but wind up very frustrated.

  20. I’d hardly see the ALP, with Dr Dodson and Linda Burney and Malndirri Macarthy in their federal parliamentary ranks, approving any changes to the Native Title Act if it wasn’t of benefit to Indigenous Australians.

  21. monica lynagh @ #2317 Monday, April 10, 2017 at 7:01 pm

    Hola bludgers
    You know one of the things that puzzles me in the energy wars here, is this.
    If people put each other on STFU, how can they meaningfully engage in the debate?
    I’ve been following a lot of it, and learning a lot, but wind up very frustrated.

    I am amused by anyone who uses STFU.
    I did try it once, partly out of curiosity and partly to escape the idiocy of Finnigans and the constant abuse for GG.
    But it just wasn’t worth it.

  24. And the more things change, the more they stay the same…

    The Energy Bores are back and Pegasus pops up to put in her oar to row the boat that helps the Liberals tarnish Bill Shorten.

  25. monica lynagh @ #2317 Monday, April 10, 2017 at 7:01 pm

    Hola bludgers
    You know one of the things that puzzles me in the energy wars here, is this.
    If people put each other on STFU, how can they meaningfully engage in the debate?
    I’ve been following a lot of it, and learning a lot, but wind up very frustrated.

    In my case, I put posters on STFU once it is clear that they are more interested in point-scoring or simple abuse than in contributing meaningfully to the debate.

    As you can see, doing so doesn’t stop the debate – but it does tend to keep it relatively civil. Or at last the parts that I see are! : )

  28. c@tmomma @ #2324 Monday, April 10, 2017 at 7:07 pm

    And the more things change, the more they stay the same…
    The Energy Bores are back and Pegasus pops up to put in her oar to row the boat that helps the Liberals tarnish Bill Shorten.

    Take a look at my post @2249 and tell me what you think of my summary.
    Agree about Pegasus. Now there’s a true bore.

  30. Plus it’s true about the ‘Homeopathic’ Melatonin. The Placebo Effect has more influence on you getting a good night’s sleep with it than any of the ridiculously pitiful amount of Active Ingredient that would be in the preparation.

    As a pretty dangerous drug that still needs a doctor’s prescription for real relief of sleeplessness &/or adjusting your circadian rhythm, you can thus easily deduce that the ‘Homeopathic’ product may have waved at a vat of Melatonin in the factory as the bottles went by. There ARE controls and they make sure that strictly-codified amounts of any active ingredient contained in the listing for that product in the Pharmocopaeia are followed to the letter in a product for sale or prescription.

  32. I see the ABC have dragged Chris Richardson ( Access Economics) out of his rat hole to comment on negative gearing again.

  34. Evening all.

    I’m sure John Clarke’s passing has been discussed at length here today. I’m shocked that Clarke and Dawe is no more! I’m hoping 730 will do a good tribute to him tonight, and trying to look at the positive side, he died doing something he apparently loved, which is something not a lot of people get when they do finally go.

  35. cat,

    Exactly.

    The recent Federal Court decision in relation to a West Australian matter ( I think ) has caused a bit of concern due to its different interpretation on a number of issues than previous Native Title court rulings have taken.

    The proposed changes to legislation are to address a much broader canvas than Adani and I am sure Senator Dodson and others are right on top of the implications and necessary changes required.

    As I posted previously any deeper analysis I will leave to those more knowledgeable than an amateur such as I.

    Cheers.

  36. c@tmomma @ #2330 Monday, April 10, 2017 at 7:14 pm

    Plus it’s true about the ‘Homeopathic’ Melatonin. The Placebo Effect has more influence on you getting a good night’s sleep with it than any of the ridiculously pitiful amount of Active Ingredient that would be in the preparation.
    As a pretty dangerous drug that still needs a doctor’s prescription for real relief of sleeplessness &/or adjusting your circadian rhythm, you can thus easily deduce that the ‘Homeopathic’ product may have waved at a vat of Melatonin in the factory as the bottles went by. There ARE controls and they make sure that strictly-codified amounts of any active ingredient contained in the listing for that product in the Pharmocopaeia are followed to the letter in a product for sale or prescription.

    Melatonin dangerous? You are kidding surely?

  37. Player One,

    What’s the point of being on the blog when you hate half of those who discuss, this to me sounds like you owning the blog and dissing those who disagree with your POV.

    It’s piss poor attitude.

  38. Poroti
    Thanks for that real estate video. It’s one of my favourites. I’ve got a book of many of his scripts from that period.
    His (cough) abrupt (cough) death has really rocked people all over Oz and Enzud.
    An important national voice has suddenly gone.
    While many were moved by the deaths of important musicians last year, such as Leonard Cohen, as was I, the loss of John Clarke has resonated very much more.

  40. You know one of the things that puzzles me in the energy wars here, is this.
    If people put each other on STFU, how can they meaningfully engage in the debate?

    I have not engaged with the tedious electricity wars, but use Musrum’s little helper on the two commenters who are the most abusive, vituperative bullies the site has.

  41. Allanah MacTiernan has hit the ground running in her new portfolio of regional development. She’s already flagged a shake-up of royalties for regions, and today I learned she has picked a colleague of mine to work in her office on regional development policy, saying she wanted someone who didn’t have the typical metro centric career path, but someone with experience working in a regional area.

    MacTiernan is someone I regard very highly, so this news is very welcome. Also I’m stoked for my colleague who is naturally, thrilled to have been head-hunted.

  43. Back to the same old format.

    Back to the same old shit fight.

    Whoever it was last week who said the short-lived “experimental” format sucked the life out of flame wars here, the bitching and the insults was absolutely spot on.

    Take a look at yourselves. You’re a disgrace! Self-indulgent, vain, lacking in self-awareness… and most depressingly… deeply, deeply boring.

  45. Actually, GG’s article recalls to my mind a First Dog cartoon from the time of the Sir Prince Duke kerfuffle. Maybe satire is dead. The Trump regime is so ridiculous that it is impossible to satarise. Just imagine that there was a TV series before last year (say “Yes Mr President”) that turned out to be an accurate prophecy of what the Trump Presidency would be like*. It would have been decried as being too ridiculous, too way out.

    Unfortunately, with Syria, North Korea and everything else, not the least Climate Change, it’s all too serious to be funny.

    * We do have the movie “Idiocracy” of course, but we were told that was a comic fantasy.

  46. It’s a big call I know, but I still reckon MacTiernan is the benchmark when it comes to planning ministers. I am really looking forward to seeing what she can bring to regional development.

  50. confessions @ #2340 Monday, April 10, 2017 at 7:21 pm

    You know one of the things that puzzles me in the energy wars here, is this.
    If people put each other on STFU, how can they meaningfully engage in the debate?

    I have not engaged with the tedious electricity wars, but use Musrum’s little helper on the two commenters who are the most abusive, vituperative bullies the site has.

    So which two out of yourself, P1 and GG?

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