The Essential Research fortnight rolling average moves a point back to the Coalition for the second week in a row, reducing Labor’s lead to 52-48. Labor is down two points on the primary vote to 35%, with the Coalition steady on 36%, One Nation steady on 10% and the Greens up a point to 9%. The monthly leaders ratings find Bill Shorten taking a big hit, down seven points on approval to 30% and up three on disapproval to 47%, and Malcolm Turnbull a smaller one, down three on approval to 34% and up one on disapproval to 49%. Turnbull’s lead as preferred prime minister is out from 39-28 last month to 39-25.
The survey also asked respondents if they would be likely to vote for Cory Bernardi’s Conservative Party, to which 14% said yes – which, as is always the case when questions like this are asked, is well above the party’s plausible vote share. Sixty-two per cent say they would be unlikely to, which is on the high side as these things go. The poll also has 17% saying Bernardi’s defection is good for the Liberal Party, 26% bad, 29% neither, and 28% don’t know. As of next week, the Essential Research poll will be published in conjunction with The Guardian.
We’ve also had federal voting intention results from the weekend’s Queensland poll by Galaxy for the Courier-Mail, which has One Nation on 18% (up six since November), the Coalition on 35% (down four), Labor on 29% (down one) and the Greens on 8% (steady), with the Coalition down a point on two-party preferred to lead 51-49. The poll was conducted last Wednesday and Thursday from a sample of 867.
There are good reasons why would wouldn’t want to do that. The big one is that it gives a huge incentive for generators inflate their bids, and thereby make the market less transparent, and more prone to inefficient dispatch. That said, the market is currently not efficient, by virtue of the tacit collusion (I’m feeling charitable) expressed by market participants; but that isn’t down to a design feature, rather the actions and concentration of power in the hands of a few large gentailers.
This happens now. Wind farms bid down to just about the negative the LREC value to ensure they are not curtailed.
Another approach used by the UK is to limit the number of hours a generator can be dispatched in a year in inverse proportion to its emissions intensity, i.e. so that renewables can be dispatched without limitation while coal has, say 200 days a year of generation to choose from. The UK also allow generators to trade these allocations.
There are many ways to skin a cat.
Commit to it like you depend on it P1
Tarneit and Wyndham Vale should also be on suburban rail, along with the 3 new stations that are planned for the Melb end of the Geelong line. The regional rail link is proving a disaster for Geelong commuters as well as the W’Bool train. Was quicker the old way through Werribee.
gorkay king @ #1899 Saturday, February 18, 2017 at 10:58 pm
Driverless trains? Where?
Bemused, the appropriate question is when, rather than where, at this stage.
fulvio sammut @ #1904 Saturday, February 18, 2017 at 11:04 pm
I have experienced them in Singapore. But then they have a much more modern system in all respects.
I too though it was strange that body-/slut-shaming Pam Anderson seems to be in-bounds. Particularly amongst a group that had an extended debate about whether or not it was okay to call a known drug-cheat a drug-cheat, on the basis that having the label (accurately) applied to them could cause psychological distress.
That’s where I’ve experienced them too.
The technology is there, if there is the will to adopt it.
Pamela Anderson is hot baby H.O.T HOT woohoo do that thing Julian you big stud you
fulvio sammut @ #1907 Saturday, February 18, 2017 at 11:08 pm
But their whole system is set up for them. I don’t think Melbourne’s infrastructure is up to scratch.
BTW, I was told they do have ‘train drivers’. Their ‘train driver’ is a person at a station who presses a button to send the train onto the next station. My source was not authoritative, but if true we have a problem there as not all Melbourne stations are staffed.
@ Bemused
Sydney is planning on going driverless for their new line.
http://www.news.com.au/technology/innovation/design/sydney-unveils-new-single-deck-and-driverless-trains/news-story/794e16114205bc10769a09c5d9e0f345
@Taylormade
RRL is not proving a disaster for Geelong, not at all. RRL has introduced new services and travel times are similar to old route. Geelong punctuality isn’t good, but that was also the case before.
There has been a massive uptake of new service in Wydnham Vale and Tarneit, in fact Tarneit is the second busiest V/Line station after Southern Cross. That is great news. RRL has also improved services to Deer Park and Ardeer, which were served with 1 train EVERY 2 HOURS off peak. Now it is around every 22 minutes off peak. Big improvement. I have personally used the service multiple times as I live on the line.
Introduction of RRL has improved running of Werribee line as well, with less crowding and more track space. The full benefit is not realised yet and timetables boosting services have been delayed. My educated guess would be that there is a chronic driver shortage and government is worried about a fiasco like in Brisbane with mass cancellations due to lack of drivers.
Issue with Warnambool line is not related to RRL. After a major accident speeds along the line have been reduced while level crossings get a safety upgrade. This has caused virtually all trains to be delayed.
Nothing beats the planning genius of the Merivale bridge in Brisbane. The only city rail crossing? You can have two tracks.
gorkay king @ #1910 Saturday, February 18, 2017 at 11:16 pm
Must have missed that driverless bit.
I have been reading about how the new trains are different dimensions and the tunnels for them will not be able to take existing trains.
That struck me as insanity almost on a par with Fraudband.
I had a go on the driverless rubber-wheeled variety in Toulouse. Very smooth, and up and down significant gradients too.
Breaking this down, I see that P1 really doesn’t understand that yes, you can actually replace coal fired power today with wind and solar and still have a reliable system with baseload power, provided there is a certain level of either gas or pumped hydro or some other highly available backup. He seems to think that you need to replace every watt currently provided by coal fired power with “baseload” power, which is just plain wrong.
He also seems to think that energy storage needs more research. Wrong again. The technology is available today. It may not be as cheap as it could be, but then again, we’re not going to be replacing coal fired power by July this year. Its going to be replaced, in dribs and drabs over the coming decade. I just find his claims that this technology needs 15 years to be viable to be utter bullshit.
Of course you have to do the sums. Of course you need backup. But the sort of backup you actually need is only a fraction of the current coal fired power “baseload”. Why? Because if you implement wind over a broad enough geographical scale, its actually pretty damn predictable. This is a fact we’ve known for a long time. I modelled it back in the 80s. The numbers stack up. You build a lot of wind generators over a wide enough geographic and you almost never approach zero power. Indeed, what you always end up with is enough power for true baseload (15% peak). And if you really want to be absolutely certain, you plan to have gas supply 15% so that this is never, ever an issue.
What is an issue is peak load. And this again is where P1 just refuses to argue with anyone who doesn’t accept his particular set of facts. Solar is a very good match for peak load. Again, when this was discussed, P1 just couldn’t see that we can do anything that would actually change user behaviour.
And again, we could implement enough battery storage within 5 years to peak shift by a couple of hours. Yes, P1, you heard it right. Several GW of battery storage. Viable, on todays prices. But when people put that to you, you bullshit about stuff like manufacturing capability. You continue to assert that its all 15 years off. Bull shit.
Anyhow I wont go on. I don’t have enough time to routinely debate this idiot in real time. All I can say is P1 just doesn’t understand the capability of existing technology and his idea of cost is years out of date.
Bottom line, you don’t need to think 15 years hence for perfect storage. You need to gradually replace coal fired power, as it is taken off line with both gas, solar and wind. And if necessary, you use battery backup. We are talking a 10 year time frame. During that time battery storage will get better, cheaper.
The sheer mendacity of P1 is to on the one hand talk about replacing coal with gas over a 15 year time frame, and then when it comes to other technologies, it must be perfect, right here, right now. As if you have to switch off every coal fired station tommorrow and replace it with renewables and storage. No, you dont. You just need a market that creates a mix that is primarily wind and solar, with some gas as backup. And then let storage technology slot into place over the 5-10 year time frame. That’s something that P1 simply cannot understand becuase he thinks storage is crazy, far off research shit. No, its already available. Yes, at a price. But that price comes down in the next few years. And we are talking about a 15 year time frame, arent we, P1? During which we don’t just do nothing. We implemnent more and more storage as we can and during that time. It doesnt just get “ready” in 15 years time and then and only then do we start using it. Thats the stupidest thing P1 aserts.
Any chance there will be a nuclear powered Pamela Anderson up and running within a few years?
@Bemused
I agree. I am happy Victoria is not following NSW on new trains. Also I am happy trains are being built in Dandenong rather than being bought from Korea like NSW.
gorkay king @ #1916 Saturday, February 18, 2017 at 11:24 pm
It is inexcusable for us to be buying trains from overseas.
I think part of the problem is that we have a relatively small market and the local industry has been fragmented. If the manufacturing could consolidate it would become more competitive and have better utilisation of facilities.
I don’t see driverless trains in Victoria and even most of NSW for a long time yet. I think we would need to almost do a total rebuild of any line that was going to run driverless trains. That may become more feasible as the lines get untangled.
BTW, I did some work with ‘Hillside Trains’ back in 1998-99 on teh Y2K program so I got to see quite a lot of their systems.
C’mon Bemused have a go at me about my attitude towards Pamela Anderson geez
paaptsef @ #1918 Saturday, February 18, 2017 at 11:36 pm
I haven’t been taking any notice.
Good observations Cud:
This highlights a flaw in the way the RET was established, for both LREC and SREC. These credits are allocated for energy only, whereas they should have been set up as a value for displacing emissions at dispatch. We are left with everyone crowding into the best resources in terms of energy- wind in SA and VIC and solar in the middle of the day (often with a yearly peak in September and March) – rather than where they are most valuable in terms of emissions reductions.
If the RET was designed to reward displacing emissions, you would (hopefully) see more diverse sites for wind installation, perhaps even some in QLD, and much more eastward and westward facing rooftop solar. It could be fixed.
exactly 🙂
One Nation might get the “Liberals” over the line in WA. They could well have a big role in the 2018/19 Federal election if the party hasn’t imploded by then.
One Nation voters who preference “Liberals” will be voting for the “establishment” they claim to deplore. They would be turkeys voting for an early Christmas. Labor can surely appeal to them without pandering to their particular prejudices and obsessions. Big Money is their oppressor, not Muslims, not gays, not ‘political correctness’, not ‘elites’ other than the only one that counts – Big Money in all its various guises.
Caroline Springs was opened this year. The carpark is almost full after three weeks service. They doubled the Carpark at Baccus Marsh over Christmas almost full.
Offer a decent service and people will use it.
And since the wheels have been fixed the velocity trains are great; they used to jerk around a bit but now; flat out; as smooth as smooth.
frednk @ #1923 Saturday, February 18, 2017 at 11:46 pm
They built a multi-story car park at Syndal station and it was full in no time. It is now full by 7:30am each morning, maybe earlier.
It seems that no matter how big the car park is, it will fill up.
I have wondered if it might not be better to run a local bus service to pick up commuters and take them to the station in the morning and to drop off points in the evening. It would not replace car parks but might cap the seemingly endless demand.
Driverless trains means trainless drivers. And the only elite that counts gets all the benefits then wants to screw the trainless drivers. They want to keep all the benefits although they have no entitlement to do so.
Technology advances, maybe lots of us no longer need to work 40 hours a week, especially in menial jobs. Like the early industrial revolution, those running the show want to keep all the benefits of the replacing menial labor with technology.
The Luddites were on the right path in smashing the machines when they were deprived of their livelihood. The industrial revolution held nothing fir them. And in Scotland’s Highland Clearences, the crofters should have burned down the laird’s manor house before he burned their cottages.
bemused
The answer is no no and no. Car parks at the station is why it is happening.
A place for the car at the station is a lot cheaper then a another highway lane to park them on between 6 am and 9 am in the morning and 4 pm to 6 pm at night.
steve777 @ #1926 Saturday, February 18, 2017 at 11:56 pm
So you want to go back several centuries?
No thanks. Productivity is not the enemy.
The solution is to find satisfying and productive work for any displaced workers.
steve 777
We are as likely to get driverless trains as we are driverless cars. Possible with dedicated purpose built lines; but not with a system in transition from one built 100 years ago.
@ Player One
You seem to have some concerns around the ability of the renewable energy industry’s ability to produce enough solar panels / wind turbines / etc, to go to gW scale. I’ve had professional dealings with Canadian Solar (I’m an accountant) around the supply of several hundred mW of solar panels for a solar farm project I was involved with about 18 months back and they confirmed in writing that they were able to produce that sort of volume *in addition* to their current demand on a very quick time frame, with a volume discounts.
I can’t put a precise number on volume, price or time frame between order and shipment because because I had to sign a non disclosure agreement around the whole agreement. You’ll have to take my word for it that they could supply several hundred mW of panels very, very quickly and at a substantial discount to the type of pricing that is commonly available in the market, and they were willing to sign a Service Level Agreement guaranteeing the quality of the panels and degradation rates.
One area where I do agree with you is batteries. As part of the aforementioned project I looked at batteries and their total cost of ownership (life cycle cost). Anyone investing in lithium technology (there are 15 different chemistries available) really hasn’t done the maths on the total cost of ownership of the battery. When I priced disposal of the batteries I was quoted $12 – $18 per kg to dispose of the batteries, dependent upon the chemistry. For a Tesla Powerwall that’s about $1,200 – $1,800 to dispose of the battery at the end of its life, with a replacement for the system costing in the vicinity of 90% of the original system cost.
Those numbers are now about 15 months out of date, so things may have changed.
If I had the money I’d install one of Reflow’s Zinc Bromine batteries (who I’ve also had professional dealings with). The life of the electrolyte is theoretically indefinite and it is 100% recyclable, its useful working life is not effected by mini cycles, it is designed to go to 100% depth of discharge, there is no risk of thermal runaway, the stack (the consumable bit on a flow battery) can be recycled or thrown in a regular rubbish bin at the end of its expected working life and its replacement cost is about 30% of the original system price (currently). Plus it’s Australian invented and owned.
frednk @ #1927 Saturday, February 18, 2017 at 11:59 pm
What is wrong with a local bus service with a station catchment to pick up commuters rather than them driving to the station? I think it could work and have heard there is something like this operating in Perth.
Bemused
There are bus services to the station; people use them; I wouldn’t. Hate buses; love trains. People are people.
Bemused the thing is with the train; it doesn’t wander all over the place. Door to door a train is faster to the CBD than a car. Less than $10.00 return ( cheaper than CBD parking). What is there not to like.
rossmcg @ #1656 Saturday, February 18, 2017 at 12:04 pm
We get the rag known as the West Australian at work. Just when I thought the paper could not get any worse, I saw that they have been further debauching their rag with the drivel of Bolt and Devine.
Bemused
You are right, the focus in Perth is buses to link to the trains.
You have to start pretty early in the day to get a park at the stations here.
Top info, Grimace.
Had any dealings with inverter providers, particularly residential? I hear word of a supply bottleneck. Though not an issue at the scale you are talking about.
frednk @ #1933 Sunday, February 19, 2017 at 12:09 am
All true, in fact train fares are absurdly cheap for some users.
You are right about existing busses wandering all over the place. They are also relatively infrequent. So they don’t serve the purpose of picking up commuters within the catchment area of a station at all well. They are not set up to do so.
There are bus services to the Caroline Springs and other stations but most people hate using buses. I used to catch the bus during high school but have stopped as soon as I got my licence. Just too slow, too many stops and lack of real time information is a source of uncertainty when you are waiting.
There were plans to introduce real time information but I am not sure if the project is complete.
Also despite being a train driver I can see how eventually the job will be replaced even though we are decades away from it in Melbourne. I will be glad if I can squeeze another 40 years out of it, that should set me up well for retirement 🙂
libertarian unionist @ #1936 Sunday, February 19, 2017 at 12:14 am
No I’ve never had much to do with inverter companies. Over the last couple of years I’ve heard persistent whispers about the financial difficulties that a well known inverter manufacturer is experiencing, so it would surprise me if there were under supply issues in the market.
I should say that inverter manufacturer is *supposedly* experiencing financial difficulties
Big thanks.
Memory leak sorted (muppet error)
Machine working (remote access destroys home lives, but I can drink while “working”)
Night all!
A R @ 11.07pm
“I too though it was strange that body-/slut-shaming Pam Anderson seems to be in-bounds. Particularly amongst a group that had an extended debate about whether or not it was okay to call a known drug-cheat a drug-cheat, on the basis that having the label (accurately) applied to them could cause psychological distress.”
Yes A R.
Tonight C@t, Confessions, and Zoomster once again were in accord to ward off any challenge to any one of them.
No-one here should be misogynous, they have argued for years ……regularly as clockwork when it comes up every 6 weeks or so.
I have no interest in them personally …. they are only pixels representing alphabetical shapes on my screen. But over the years of posting and lurking here I have developed an aversion to hypocrisy and will call it.
Nowadays I usually wait a day or so to allow time for those who have often strongly promoted a particular point of view, to point out when that point of view is again totally dissed. However I have discovered that whether or not there is a challenge depends on which poster has dissed the original point of view …. this hypocrisy I then point out.
The response is to attack me …. snark, troll, superiority complex, stalker etc, and to minimise the issue.
I will continue to challenge this. I look forward to the creative addition of more titles of abuse to describe me.
BTW as most posters and many lurkers know, my posting interests here are far wider than commenting on this type of issue. Like many others, I put time and thought into a number of substantive posts each week …. the most recent area being my descriptions of, and opinions about the child abuse RC.
And also as many lurkers and posters will have observed, I do not engage in personal abuse despite receiving it in generous proportions. Nevertheless I do sleep well each night.
kayjay @ #1840 Saturday, February 18, 2017 at 9:24 pm
Daisy redux:
🐄
RRL for those on this blog who are not from Victoria:
A very good article about the good and bad things about the redflow zinc bromide zcell.
Some quotes:
It has a 10 kilowatt-hour usable storage capacity, can provide 3 kilowatts of continuous power, and is suitable for on-grid and off-grid use.
The chemistry of the ZCell battery is very interesting. It is, at its heart, a reversible electroplating machine. When the ZCell is charged, electrical current is sent through the battery which causes zinc to be removed from zinc bromide and electroplated onto plastic electrodes. When the battery is discharged, the opposite happens and zinc is removed from the electrodes and attached to bromine to make zinc bromide and an electrical current is produced.
The ZCell battery can be discharged 100% every single day without suffering any harm at all, which is very different from other battery chemistries on the market. In addition it does not decline in storage capacity over time. It starts off with 10 kilowatt-hours on the day its first turned on, and it will have 10 kilowatt-hours on the day it dies. And according to Redflow, for a family that uses it at 80% capacity, that’s likely to be around 14 years later.
In comparison, the Tesla Powerwall is a 6.4 kilowatt-hour battery and only 5.44 kilowatt-hours of that is actually warranted to be usable. But after the first 2 years that drops to 4.6 kilowatt-hours. And 3 years later it drops down to only 3.8 kilowatt-hours of warranted storage. So after 5 years it would take 3 Tesla Powerwalls to have the same warranted energy capacity as the ZCell.
All components of the ZCell are completely recyclable. One could be pulled apart right now and all the plastic and metal could be fully recycled using currently existing methods. The zinc bromide solution can be cleaned and reused in another ZCell.
The ZCell’s Efficiency Is Low
The DC to DC roundtrip efficiency of the ZCell battery is around 80%. This means for every kilowatt-hour of electrical energy put into the battery, only 0.8 kilowatt-hours can be taken out. For a zinc bromine battery this is amazingly high. The Redflow company has clearly done a fantastic job of maximizing the efficiency of their ZCell battery. Unfortunately, it is still worse than the efficiency of lithium-ion battery systems. For example, the Tesla Powerwall claims to have an efficiency of 92.5% and the LG Chem RESU 95%.
The 80% figure applies if the ZCell is charged with DC from solar panels. This is called DC coupling and is the most efficient method. However, if it is charged with AC, a situation called AC coupling, the efficiency of the ZCell, or any other battery system, takes an additional hit and the overall efficiency of the ZCell battery can easily drop to 70% or less.
Low Efficiency Is Not A Major Problem
A low round trip efficiency of 80%, or even 70%, is not as bad as it may seem for the economics of a battery system. This is because the feed-in tariffs for solar electricity exported into the grid are now far lower than the cost of grid electricity. If a household only receives a 6 cent feed-in tariff, then with 80% efficient energy storage it will effectively cost them 7.5 cents to store one kilowatt-hour. But if this saves them having to pay 30 cents for one kilowatt-hour of grid electricity in the evening, then it is worthwhile – if the cost of storing that kilowatt-hour comes to less than 22.5 cents. The ZCell won’t store a kilowatt-hour of electricity for less than 22.5 cents, but if it did, it would pay for itself despite having low efficiency.
https://www.solarquotes.com.au/blog/redflows-zinc-bromide-zcell-battery-may-have-the-edge-over-lithium-ion/
But it is pricey. You’d have to be in the situation of really, really needing battery storage.
The 10kWh ZCell will sell for between $17,500 and $19,500, pricey by comparison with its competitors. But Redflow says its ability to discharge 100 per cent of its power, and its longer life, and its greater size, means that its delivered cost of energy will match its rivals.Mar 30, 2016
The savings don’t stack up for the Zcell as far as I can see.
Let’s suppose it lasts for an optimistic 15 years and there are no disposal costs.
That’s $1200 a year.
Interest paid (or foregone because you used cash) is (generous estimate, 4% simple interest) over $700. It’s a lot, lot worse if you use a more realistic compound interest formula.
So call it $2000 (probably a lot more) you have to save each year on the use of the battery, just to break even.
Not for me.
That is a very good argument for a living wage.
If given a choice between subsidising crap jobs and giving people money to go off and surf all day then I would opt for the latter every time. Especially since it also allows us all to enjoy technological progress.
I’m also busting for a driver-less car. Can’t wait. Force everyone to network the cars and you won’t need traffic lights, or traffic lanes. In a large part congestion is caused by the fact that all human drivers are selfish, angry, and a bee’s dick (stuff all) as good as they think they are.