Sunday morning.
So far as the party representation is concerned, there are clear results in Brindabella (three Liberal, two Labor), Kurrajong (two Labor, two Liberal, one Greens) and Yerrabi (three Labor, two Liberal), and seats in doubt in Ginninderra and Murrumbidgee, where Labor and Liberal have won two each, and the final seat is respectively down to Labor-versus-Greens and Liberal-versus-Greens. Both major parties thus stand to win 11 or 12 seats, with the Greens on at least one and perhaps as many as three. Thanks to the magic of electronic voting, the ACT Electoral Commission has been able to take away a lot of the guess work about the preference redistribution, by publishing an indicative result showing how things would look like if only the electronic vote counted. This amounts to perhaps a quarter of the total, electronic voting being available in the six pre-poll voting centres, which also function as ordinary polling booths on election day. The electorates in turn:
Brindabella. As the ACT Electoral Commission projection makes clear, the threat to the third Liberal from the Sex Party is apparent rather than real. On the primary vote, the Liberals currently have 2.4 quotas and the Sex Party has 0.5. However, the projection has the Liberals gaining 1.4 quotas as preferences are distributed, while the Sex Party can only manage half that much. Non-electronic voting slightly boosted the Sex Party and weakened the Liberals, but not by nearly enough to make a difference. The result will clearly be three Liberals (Andrew Wall, Mark Parton and Nicole Lawder) and two Labor (Mick Gentleman and Joy Burch).
Ginninderra. The projection shows Vicki Dunne and Elizabeth Kikkert of the Liberals both elected at the point where they are the party’s only two candidates left standing, leaving four seats to be divided up by the three leading Labor candidates plus Indra Esguerra of the Greens. Esguerra need finish ahead of only one of the Labor candidates, but the projection has her on 2208 versus 2629 for Yvonne Berry, 2522 for Tara Cheyne and 2436 for Chris Bourke. Bourke fell back in late counting and now trails Gordon Ramsay, but that is unlikely to change the general situation. The overall primary vote count for the parties is currently all but identical to the electronic vote count used for the projection, so a Labor win for the final seat would appear more likely than not. Clearly Yvette Berry will be one of Labor’s three, but otherwise there is very little to separate the other four candidates. Vicki Dunne will be re-elected for the Liberals, with Elizabeth Kikkert and Paul Sweeney all but tied for second place.
Kurrajong. The quota totals here are Labor 2.35, Liberal 1.77 and Greens 1.18, making it all but certain that the result will be 2-2-1. Andrew Barr polled a quota in his own right, and his 0.3 quota surplus could theoretically shape who wins second. However, the projection suggests Barr’s surplus divides between the other four candidates in the same proportion as their primary vote shares, which is to say in favour of second-placed Rachel Stephen-Smith over third-placed Josh Ceramidas. Stephen-Smith ends up leading 2345 to 1556 at the key point in the projection – this is based on a base primary vote of 5.4%, compared with 5.8% in the count overall, while Ceramidas remains on 4.7%. Newcomer Elizabeth Lee looks set to win the first Liberal seat, and the second is likely to go to incumbent Steve Doszpot, although the latter has another newcomer in Candice Burch at his heels. On the projection, Doszpot starts with 7.0% and Burch starts with 5.7%, after which both receive the exact same amount of preferences. Burch has since slightly narrowed the gap on the primary vote, now at 6.8% to 5.8%. Nonetheless, the likely final result here is Barr and Stephen-Smith for Labor, Lee and Doszpot for Liberal, and Shane Rattenbury the election’s only clear winner for the Greens.
Murrumbidgee. Labor and Liberal have a clean two seats apiece with Liberal fighting it out with the Greens for the last seat. The projection gives it to Greens candidate Caroline Le Couteuer, who nudges out a third Liberal by 2176 votes to 1802 at the key point of the count. The count this is based on is slightly less favourable to the Greens than the total count, with the Liberals on 42.0% of the primary vote rather than 41.7%, and the Greens on 11.1% rather than 10.8%. If the Liberals can only manage two, one will certainly be Jeremy Hanson, who has matched his Labor rival in recording 1.3 quotas, and the other will be incumbent Giulia Jones or newcomer Peter Hosking, who are respectively on 7.2% and 7.0% of the primary vote. Jones stands to benefit from the pro-incumbent vote that makes up Hanson’s surplus, and is likely to stay in front. Labor had no incumbents on its ticket, and its winners will be Chris Steel and Bec Cody.
Yerrabi. The quota totals are Labor 2.66, Liberal 2.12 and Greens 0.43, which can only mean three Labor, two Liberal. The elected members will certainly include incumbent Meegan Fitzharris and newcomer Michael Pettersson, and almost certainly a second newcomer in Suzanne Orr, who leads incumbent Jayson Hinder 7.3% to 6.3% and gets a better flow of preferences on the projection. Alistair Coe is a clear winner of the first Liberal seat, and looks set to be joined by James Milligan, whose 7.5% to 6.2% lead over Jacob Vadakkedathu is projected to widen on preferences.
Saturday night
10.06pm. Labor have slipped back in Kurrajong, which probably scotches that vague possibility of three seats there. The ABC computer is saying Labor 11, Liberal 10 and Greens one with three undecided, which would refer to Brindabella, where the Sex Party continues to incrementally improve, but faces the difficulty that the third strongest Liberal, Nicole Lawder, is slightly outpolling the combined Sex Party vote; Ginninderra, where the last seat could go to a third Labor or to the Greens; and Murrumbidgee, where the last seat could go to a Liberal or the Greens.
9.29pm. The ACTEC’s provisional preference counts are giving me a headache, but Kevin Bonham points to big preference leakage after Andrew Barr’s election, which diminishes the possibility I canvassed of a 3-1-1 result.
9.02pm. Sex Party strengthening still further in Brindabella with 74.0% counted: 0.50 quotas to 2.45 for Liberal. Surely a big chance now of two Labor, two Liberal, one Sex Party.
8.58pm. Far from fading with the counting of the ordinary vote, the Sex Party in Brindabella is up from 0.45 to 0.48 with 68.6% now counted.
8.52pm. I’ve been taking for granted a 2-2-1 result in Kurrajong, but in keeping with their overall poor show, it may be worse than that for the Liberals – they have 1.59 quotas versus 2.51 for Labor, suggesting 3-1-1 can’t be ruled out. That might even get them to a majority, if they can pull ahead of the Greens in Ginninderra.
8.50pm. Antony’s matched primary votes swings: Labor up 1.%, Libearl down 3.9%, Greens down 0.5%.
8.48pm. Still a lottery for the second and possibly third Labor seats in Ginninderra: Gordon Ramsay 3200, Tara Cheyne 2960, Kim Fischer 2845, Chris Bourke 2754.
8.42pm. The Ginninderra count has just shot up from 37.2% counted to 64.8%, and Labor is up from 2.52 quotas to 2.53, and the Greens are down from 0.59 to 0.57. Incumbents Yvette Barry (Labor) and Vicki Dunne (Liberal) are home, but the intra=party contests are otherwise extremely tight.
8.30pm. The latest update in Murrumbidgee, where 34.1% are now counted, is slightly to the advantage of the Liberals, who are up from 2.50 quotas to 2.54, but the Greens are on 0.64 and Antony Green rates them more likely than the Liberals to get the last seat. Brindabella and Yerrabi counts are now over 50%, and aren’t bearing out hopeful Liberal talk of a dramatically different trend on polling booth votes.
8.20pm. Regarding my musings concerning the Sex Party in Brindabella, Antony Green points out they have a problem in the even spread of support for the various Liberal candidates, which will make it difficult for them to pull ahead during the preference distribution.
8.10pm. Yerrabi count now up to 44.2%, and it’s clearly Labor three, Liberal two. Meegan Fitzharris and Michael Petersson will win two of the Labor seats, but the third is up in the air, with Suzanne Orr leading and incumbent Jayson Hinder struggling. James Mulligan likely to join Alistair Coe as the second Liberal.
7.52pm. The ACTEC has published interim preference distributions suggesting Labor rather than the Greens will get the last seat in Ginninderra, and the Greens rather than the Liberals will get it in Murrumbidgee. That suggests a final result of Labor 12, Liberal 11 and Greens two.
7.44pm. I haven’t had much to say about the strong Sex Party performance in Brindabella, but with 26.9% counted they’re well clear of the Greens (7.1% to 5.2%), and it’s entirely possible that they could win the seat at the expense of the third Liberal on Greens preferences – assuming polling booth votes don’t prove very different from pre-poll ones, which they may well do.
7.33pm. In Murrumbidgee, Jeremy Hanson is re-elected for the Liberals, but Giulia Jones isn’t quite shaking off Peter Hosking, although it’s possible both will win. Bec Cody and Chris Steel are firming as the Labor members. The Greens candidate who’s in the hunt is Caroline Le Couteur.
7.31pm. In Yerrabi, Labor’s Meegan Fitzharris is re-elected and will be joined by Michael Petersson, but it’s anyone’s guess who the third Labor member will be. For the Liberals, Alistair Coe has been re-elected and looks likely to be joined by James Milligan.
7.30pm. So to summarise: 3-2 to Liberal in Brindabella; 2-2 in Ginninderra, with the last seat Labor versus Greens; 2-2-1 in Kurrajong; 2-2 in Murrumbidgee, with the last seat either Liberals or Greens; and 3-2 to Labor in Yerrabi.
7.28pm. Shane Rattenbury has clearly been re-elected, but beyond that the Greens have only two possibilities, being in a struggle with the Liberals for the final seat in Murrumbidgee, which will determine whether the Liberals finish on 11 or 12, and with Labor in Ginninderra.
7.25pm. Big leap forward in the Yerrabi count, now at 35.9% counted, and it’s all but confirmed now that Labor will win three seats to the Liberals two, which closes the door on the possibility of a Liberal majority.
7.16pm. Resulting firming in Kurrajong: two Labor (Andrew Barr and Rachel Stephen-Smith, although the latter might yet get displaced by a Labor colleague), two Liberal (Elizabeth Lee and Steve Doszpot) and one Greens (Shane Rattenbury).
7.13pm. A slight update to the Ginninderra numbers pushes the count over 30%, and it’s still clear the Liberals won’t get a third seat there. Still unclear which Labor and Liberal candidates will win seats, except that Vicki Dunne looks very likely to be one of the Liberals. Yvette Berry has a slight edge among the Labor candidates.
7.10pm. Now we’ve hit a lull in reporting of results after the electronic pre-polls. The laggard is Yerrabi, which just nudged from 8.2% counted to 11.3%, with the others around 25%. The Liberals have actually gone backwards on the updated Yerrabi numbers, which is bad news for them as their only path to victory involves them winning a third seat there. That’s certainly not going to happen with 2.09 quotas. Labor looking more likely to win a third seat than one going to the Greens. Still a long way to go though.
6.59pm. Now 8.2% counted in Yerrabi, and it’s not looking great for the Liberals on these numbers. So far, it looks the same as Ginninderra, with the final seat coming down to the Greens and a third Labor candidate, leaving the Liberals on two. Unless that changes, the Liberals look doomed to fall short.
6.57pm. Ginninderra still looking grim for the Liberals with nearly 30% counted. Result looks like either Labor three and Liberal two, or two each with one for the Greens. So the Liberals need three seats in Murrumbidgee and Yerrabi.
6.56pm. Brindabella looks settled: Wall, Parton and Lawder for Liberal, Burch and Gentleman for Labor. So the question remains whether the Liberals can make it to three in any two out of Ginninderra, Murrumbidgee and Yerrabi.
6.54pm. Murrumbidgee looking very important to the result, with a close race looming between a third Liberal and the Greens to win the final seat. Bec Cody and Chris Steel leading to win the two Labor seats.
6.53pm. Rachel Stephen-Smith leading the field to join Andrew Barr as Labor’s second member in Kurrajong.
6.52pm. Rapid progress now as the electronic pre-polls report. As noted, very little differentiation between party candidate votes in Ginninderra.
6.50pm. ABC computer quickly went from 4% to 11.3% counted in Kurrajong, and now the result looks as anticipated, with two Liberal, two Labor and one Greens. Elizabeth Lee looking to join incumbent Steve Doszpot (she is outpolling him) as the second Liberal.
6.49pm. Very, very close race between the Labor candidates in Ginninderra, with little differentiation between the two incumbents (Yvette Berry and Chris Bourke) and the three newcomers.
6.48pm. Surprisingly good early result for Liberals in Kurrajong, where I had simply assumed before they wouldn’t win three seats, but it’s probably a function of where the booth is.
6.48pm. ACTEC site isn’t coping and ABC doesn’t give booth results, so I’m flying blind as to where these results are coming from.
6.45pm. Comparing that Woden pre-poll result for Murrumbidgee with the overall Woden pre-poll in 2012 (remembering that pre-poll booths are set up to receive votes for all districts), Labor is down 4.5%, the Liberals are up 1.6%, and the Greens are all but unchanged.
6.43pm. FIrst result from Ginninderra didn’t look brilliant for the Liberals. Very early days, but if that continues the Liberals will have only one path to victory, with Yerrabi as well as Murrumbidgee needing to come through for them with a third seat.
6.40pm. Antony discussing a result from Brindabella, which does little to disturb the expectation that the Liberals will win three here and Labor two, although the Australian Sex Party is polling well with 6.6%. As anticipated, Mark Parton looks placed to become the third Liberal, with all four incumbents looking to be returned.
6.37pm. First result is the Woden pre-poll booth from Murrumbdigee. It provides no evidence of independents doing particularly well, and suggests Giulia Jones can’t take for granted being one of the two Liberals elected, if indeed there are are only two, with new Liberal Peter Hosking outpolling her. Antony Green’s projection says the Labor vote is down 6% to 7%.
6pm. Welcome to live coverage of the Australian Capital Territory election count, for which polls have now closed. Results can be followed here at the Electoral Commission site, or here at the ABC.
I’m hearing change of government third hand from an ALP candidate.
ACT Electoral Commission site has crashed. I knew it was a bad move to go with IBM.
Are greyhounds still being banned in ACT?
I’ve had the wheel of death for the last 10mins or so. with nothing. But the ABC site is still good.
shellbell
I sort of half-heard something that amounted to a pre-election flannel flub OR to take literary inspiration from new Nobel Poet Laureate, the Barr Government crouched itself to the television.
First results in Murrambidgee
http://www.abc.net.au/news/elections/act-election-2016/guide/murr/
Bloody hell.
The electronic voting looks tainted.
Greens behind the Sex Party in Brindabella.
Kimbo of the pecs has one third of a quota.
Boerwar:
What result are you expecting in this election?
c
Labor will suffer cos they got with the Greens.
The Greens did badly last election – I imagine their vote will stay the same or go down a bit but because of the additional seats they might actually gain a seat or so.
The Liberal vote will go up but probably not enough to win government.
Reality: I don’t know.
Fair enough Boerwar!
Ratts predicting a week of counting preferences before the result is known.
Ratts reckon lunchtime next Saturday.
Looks to me like the Liberals are getting three in Brindabella and maybe Murrumbidgee, but definitely not in Kurrajong or Ginninderra. That means they have to get there in Yerrabi as well as Murrumbidgee, and the early portents with 8.2% counted there are not good for them.
The ABC coverage is crap.
Boerwar:
ABC election coverage commentary has been crap since they retired Red Kerry from the host role. At least they haven’t let Antony Green go.
William
It looks very like status quo in terms of Labor needing the Greens to govern with either one or two votes in it.
Me (rather rushed) at http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2016/10/act-election-live-and-post-count.html
On current figures another hung parliament would be highly likely – circa 12-12-1 or 12-11-2. That’s ignoring any swing that might happen once other types of votes are added, which I’ve not had time to project yet.
Yeah, what Kevin says.
Ha the Greens are at the Polish Club. I recall many a good night there in my younger days 😀
Oooh, Siobahn on the telly now.
The Greens are at the Polish Club.
I am sure that they will be queuing up for the Hunter’s Stew.
Siobahn making it plain that she is a Greens supporter.
Yerrabi updated.
Looks bad for the Libs.
boerwar @ #18 Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 7:07 pm
That’s how I’m seeing it too.
So much for that “tram being the killer” assumption. It looks close, certainly not a landslide either way.
Im calling it
Liberals 12
Labor 11
Greens 2
So close, so sad, too bad
S
Yep.
I think my last comment pre the vote count was that it seemed to me to be the most passionless election I have ever been in.
Another four years of mounting debt and rapidly mounting rates.
Sigh.
I should declare a bias here. As a transport planner I commend what the ACT is doing with the Light Rail. It was courageous but is the correct long term decision.
As an economist the claim that the LRT was causing the rates increase was a big fat lie. So I am glad to see the Libs are not gaining from it. The ACT electorate is educated enough not to fall for it.
Boerwar
I do sympathise with your rates going up. But the real culprit is Joe Hockey. Every state and territory budget is under pressure, courtesy of their cuts to health and education funding.
S
The cost to government of the Light Rail financing has been back-ended.
The Government debt is increasing rapidly before any of the Light Rail costs arrive.
My rates have gone up by over 50% in four years, that is to say, before the current debt is paid off and before the Light Rail costs kick in.
The Light Rail ROI case was fiddled to buggery.
Oh – and around one third of the ACT budget depends on land sales.
Yeah, yeah, Boer.
We got the thousandth time you told us.
Your land tax has gone up because the ACT is getting rid of stamp duty. It sucks for you, but it’s a better way to fund a government.
Greg Jennett reckons the ACT holds elections every four weeks! I think that might be a bit much even for the most dedicated election junkies.
Seriously though, firming up for Labor here. Looking quite like a repeat of the last result on a larger scale, in fact. On current figures the Greens would be quite unlucky not to get two, but then they were extremely unlucky last time so who knows.
I’m not a transport planner but I also commend the ACT govt for embracing light rail. It’s a totally different story over here where the Liberal govt promised expansion of our urban rail network only to renege on it after the election. Meanwhile they keep increasing the lanes on freeways and allowing cars to use public transport lanes on the freeways.
Car is king and this really does need to change.
One of the issues that did not get any air time is that of maintenance.
The parkies are doing it very tough with their management budgets.
Potholes, usually non-existent, are starting to appear.
The parks have not been mown to their normal standards. This one may be due to the ground being too wet.
That Labor spread in Ginninderra can’t be good for Esguerra’s chances there.
Brindabella is interesting – Meegan Fitzharris says there was a Labor/Greens/Sex preference swap there, which if it carries through could deliver a third progressive seat there. But given the 100m exclusion zone, many fewer people see the HTVs (I voted today and saw only one, for an independent, although I did dodge the Libs), so you’d probably back the Libs at this stage.
My preference would have been for priority bus lanes combined with electric buses combined with congestion taxes for the CBD and for the two key interchanges.
Something like 50% of the Light Rail transect is bounded by grassland reserves on one or both sides. 50%. Half. There are no houses there at all.
They even had a station stop pencilled in the middle of one of the parks in one of the early iterations of the plan. They subsequently and quietly rubbed that station out. How embarrassment, after all.
Light Rail works where you have five storey-type urban densities all along the route.
One of the truly depressing things about the Light Rail is that sooner or later a government will flog off the high quality but quite scarce grassland parks. They won’t have a choice.
Transport infrastructure is catch up stuff because the vast urban sprawl right up the northern borders of the ACT, planned and produced by successive Labor and Labor/Greens governments, was not accompanied by proper transport planning.
All three major thoroughfares have had to have after-the-fact duplications: Majura, Horse Park Drive and the Gungahlin Parkway.
Frickeg
I agree that the 100m rule needs to be fixed to something more rational and useful.
The lib / green split in Murrumbidgee looks better for them, with Hanson’s excess going to Jones .
I hope we get to see more of Siobahn at the Polish club, not just because I think she’s cute but also because it triggers conniptions in borewar.
‘areaman
Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 7:37 pm
Your land tax has gone up because the ACT is getting rid of stamp duty. It sucks for you, but it’s a better way to fund a government.’
I will take the land tax, please.
I have done the calculations and I would be way ahead. The reason is that rates in some areas have gone up astronomically but not so in other areas. In other words there is a very large differential in the people who are taking up the slack of the stamp duty losses.
[7.44pm. I haven’t had much to say about the strong Sex Party performance in Brindabella, but with 26.9% counted they’re well clear of the Greens (7.1% to 5.2%), and it’s entirely possible that they could win the seat at the expense of the third Liberal on Greens preferences – assuming polling booth votes don’t prove very different from pre-poll ones, which they may well do.]
Gosh, I live in Brindabella. If the Sex Party wins a seat I can imagine the sideways glances us Brindabella-ites will receive as we venture into the rest of Canberra!
I am sorry that Kimbo did not get up.
Citizen
Not quite up to the Tomato Tomato Tomato Party standards, but.
I thought it was the Sun-ripened Warm Tomato party. You’re may be confused with the Party! Party! Party! Party.
Strong increase for Labor vote in Gininderra.
They obviously like the idea of getting cross subsidies from the rest of the ACT to increase their land values and transport options.
Boerwar, I think you mean Yerrabi. And it is indeed a very good result for Labor indeed; it pretty much locks in the election for them.