Australian Capital Territory election live

Live coverage of the count for today’s Australian Capital Territory election.

Sunday morning.

So far as the party representation is concerned, there are clear results in Brindabella (three Liberal, two Labor), Kurrajong (two Labor, two Liberal, one Greens) and Yerrabi (three Labor, two Liberal), and seats in doubt in Ginninderra and Murrumbidgee, where Labor and Liberal have won two each, and the final seat is respectively down to Labor-versus-Greens and Liberal-versus-Greens. Both major parties thus stand to win 11 or 12 seats, with the Greens on at least one and perhaps as many as three. Thanks to the magic of electronic voting, the ACT Electoral Commission has been able to take away a lot of the guess work about the preference redistribution, by publishing an indicative result showing how things would look like if only the electronic vote counted. This amounts to perhaps a quarter of the total, electronic voting being available in the six pre-poll voting centres, which also function as ordinary polling booths on election day. The electorates in turn:

Brindabella. As the ACT Electoral Commission projection makes clear, the threat to the third Liberal from the Sex Party is apparent rather than real. On the primary vote, the Liberals currently have 2.4 quotas and the Sex Party has 0.5. However, the projection has the Liberals gaining 1.4 quotas as preferences are distributed, while the Sex Party can only manage half that much. Non-electronic voting slightly boosted the Sex Party and weakened the Liberals, but not by nearly enough to make a difference. The result will clearly be three Liberals (Andrew Wall, Mark Parton and Nicole Lawder) and two Labor (Mick Gentleman and Joy Burch).

Ginninderra. The projection shows Vicki Dunne and Elizabeth Kikkert of the Liberals both elected at the point where they are the party’s only two candidates left standing, leaving four seats to be divided up by the three leading Labor candidates plus Indra Esguerra of the Greens. Esguerra need finish ahead of only one of the Labor candidates, but the projection has her on 2208 versus 2629 for Yvonne Berry, 2522 for Tara Cheyne and 2436 for Chris Bourke. Bourke fell back in late counting and now trails Gordon Ramsay, but that is unlikely to change the general situation. The overall primary vote count for the parties is currently all but identical to the electronic vote count used for the projection, so a Labor win for the final seat would appear more likely than not. Clearly Yvette Berry will be one of Labor’s three, but otherwise there is very little to separate the other four candidates. Vicki Dunne will be re-elected for the Liberals, with Elizabeth Kikkert and Paul Sweeney all but tied for second place.

Kurrajong. The quota totals here are Labor 2.35, Liberal 1.77 and Greens 1.18, making it all but certain that the result will be 2-2-1. Andrew Barr polled a quota in his own right, and his 0.3 quota surplus could theoretically shape who wins second. However, the projection suggests Barr’s surplus divides between the other four candidates in the same proportion as their primary vote shares, which is to say in favour of second-placed Rachel Stephen-Smith over third-placed Josh Ceramidas. Stephen-Smith ends up leading 2345 to 1556 at the key point in the projection – this is based on a base primary vote of 5.4%, compared with 5.8% in the count overall, while Ceramidas remains on 4.7%. Newcomer Elizabeth Lee looks set to win the first Liberal seat, and the second is likely to go to incumbent Steve Doszpot, although the latter has another newcomer in Candice Burch at his heels. On the projection, Doszpot starts with 7.0% and Burch starts with 5.7%, after which both receive the exact same amount of preferences. Burch has since slightly narrowed the gap on the primary vote, now at 6.8% to 5.8%. Nonetheless, the likely final result here is Barr and Stephen-Smith for Labor, Lee and Doszpot for Liberal, and Shane Rattenbury the election’s only clear winner for the Greens.

Murrumbidgee. Labor and Liberal have a clean two seats apiece with Liberal fighting it out with the Greens for the last seat. The projection gives it to Greens candidate Caroline Le Couteuer, who nudges out a third Liberal by 2176 votes to 1802 at the key point of the count. The count this is based on is slightly less favourable to the Greens than the total count, with the Liberals on 42.0% of the primary vote rather than 41.7%, and the Greens on 11.1% rather than 10.8%. If the Liberals can only manage two, one will certainly be Jeremy Hanson, who has matched his Labor rival in recording 1.3 quotas, and the other will be incumbent Giulia Jones or newcomer Peter Hosking, who are respectively on 7.2% and 7.0% of the primary vote. Jones stands to benefit from the pro-incumbent vote that makes up Hanson’s surplus, and is likely to stay in front. Labor had no incumbents on its ticket, and its winners will be Chris Steel and Bec Cody.

Yerrabi. The quota totals are Labor 2.66, Liberal 2.12 and Greens 0.43, which can only mean three Labor, two Liberal. The elected members will certainly include incumbent Meegan Fitzharris and newcomer Michael Pettersson, and almost certainly a second newcomer in Suzanne Orr, who leads incumbent Jayson Hinder 7.3% to 6.3% and gets a better flow of preferences on the projection. Alistair Coe is a clear winner of the first Liberal seat, and looks set to be joined by James Milligan, whose 7.5% to 6.2% lead over Jacob Vadakkedathu is projected to widen on preferences.

Saturday night

10.06pm. Labor have slipped back in Kurrajong, which probably scotches that vague possibility of three seats there. The ABC computer is saying Labor 11, Liberal 10 and Greens one with three undecided, which would refer to Brindabella, where the Sex Party continues to incrementally improve, but faces the difficulty that the third strongest Liberal, Nicole Lawder, is slightly outpolling the combined Sex Party vote; Ginninderra, where the last seat could go to a third Labor or to the Greens; and Murrumbidgee, where the last seat could go to a Liberal or the Greens.

9.29pm. The ACTEC’s provisional preference counts are giving me a headache, but Kevin Bonham points to big preference leakage after Andrew Barr’s election, which diminishes the possibility I canvassed of a 3-1-1 result.

9.02pm. Sex Party strengthening still further in Brindabella with 74.0% counted: 0.50 quotas to 2.45 for Liberal. Surely a big chance now of two Labor, two Liberal, one Sex Party.

8.58pm. Far from fading with the counting of the ordinary vote, the Sex Party in Brindabella is up from 0.45 to 0.48 with 68.6% now counted.

8.52pm. I’ve been taking for granted a 2-2-1 result in Kurrajong, but in keeping with their overall poor show, it may be worse than that for the Liberals – they have 1.59 quotas versus 2.51 for Labor, suggesting 3-1-1 can’t be ruled out. That might even get them to a majority, if they can pull ahead of the Greens in Ginninderra.

8.50pm. Antony’s matched primary votes swings: Labor up 1.%, Libearl down 3.9%, Greens down 0.5%.

8.48pm. Still a lottery for the second and possibly third Labor seats in Ginninderra: Gordon Ramsay 3200, Tara Cheyne 2960, Kim Fischer 2845, Chris Bourke 2754.

8.42pm. The Ginninderra count has just shot up from 37.2% counted to 64.8%, and Labor is up from 2.52 quotas to 2.53, and the Greens are down from 0.59 to 0.57. Incumbents Yvette Barry (Labor) and Vicki Dunne (Liberal) are home, but the intra=party contests are otherwise extremely tight.

8.30pm. The latest update in Murrumbidgee, where 34.1% are now counted, is slightly to the advantage of the Liberals, who are up from 2.50 quotas to 2.54, but the Greens are on 0.64 and Antony Green rates them more likely than the Liberals to get the last seat. Brindabella and Yerrabi counts are now over 50%, and aren’t bearing out hopeful Liberal talk of a dramatically different trend on polling booth votes.

8.20pm. Regarding my musings concerning the Sex Party in Brindabella, Antony Green points out they have a problem in the even spread of support for the various Liberal candidates, which will make it difficult for them to pull ahead during the preference distribution.

8.10pm. Yerrabi count now up to 44.2%, and it’s clearly Labor three, Liberal two. Meegan Fitzharris and Michael Petersson will win two of the Labor seats, but the third is up in the air, with Suzanne Orr leading and incumbent Jayson Hinder struggling. James Mulligan likely to join Alistair Coe as the second Liberal.

7.52pm. The ACTEC has published interim preference distributions suggesting Labor rather than the Greens will get the last seat in Ginninderra, and the Greens rather than the Liberals will get it in Murrumbidgee. That suggests a final result of Labor 12, Liberal 11 and Greens two.

7.44pm. I haven’t had much to say about the strong Sex Party performance in Brindabella, but with 26.9% counted they’re well clear of the Greens (7.1% to 5.2%), and it’s entirely possible that they could win the seat at the expense of the third Liberal on Greens preferences – assuming polling booth votes don’t prove very different from pre-poll ones, which they may well do.

7.33pm. In Murrumbidgee, Jeremy Hanson is re-elected for the Liberals, but Giulia Jones isn’t quite shaking off Peter Hosking, although it’s possible both will win. Bec Cody and Chris Steel are firming as the Labor members. The Greens candidate who’s in the hunt is Caroline Le Couteur.

7.31pm. In Yerrabi, Labor’s Meegan Fitzharris is re-elected and will be joined by Michael Petersson, but it’s anyone’s guess who the third Labor member will be. For the Liberals, Alistair Coe has been re-elected and looks likely to be joined by James Milligan.

7.30pm. So to summarise: 3-2 to Liberal in Brindabella; 2-2 in Ginninderra, with the last seat Labor versus Greens; 2-2-1 in Kurrajong; 2-2 in Murrumbidgee, with the last seat either Liberals or Greens; and 3-2 to Labor in Yerrabi.

7.28pm. Shane Rattenbury has clearly been re-elected, but beyond that the Greens have only two possibilities, being in a struggle with the Liberals for the final seat in Murrumbidgee, which will determine whether the Liberals finish on 11 or 12, and with Labor in Ginninderra.

7.25pm. Big leap forward in the Yerrabi count, now at 35.9% counted, and it’s all but confirmed now that Labor will win three seats to the Liberals two, which closes the door on the possibility of a Liberal majority.

7.16pm. Resulting firming in Kurrajong: two Labor (Andrew Barr and Rachel Stephen-Smith, although the latter might yet get displaced by a Labor colleague), two Liberal (Elizabeth Lee and Steve Doszpot) and one Greens (Shane Rattenbury).

7.13pm. A slight update to the Ginninderra numbers pushes the count over 30%, and it’s still clear the Liberals won’t get a third seat there. Still unclear which Labor and Liberal candidates will win seats, except that Vicki Dunne looks very likely to be one of the Liberals. Yvette Berry has a slight edge among the Labor candidates.

7.10pm. Now we’ve hit a lull in reporting of results after the electronic pre-polls. The laggard is Yerrabi, which just nudged from 8.2% counted to 11.3%, with the others around 25%. The Liberals have actually gone backwards on the updated Yerrabi numbers, which is bad news for them as their only path to victory involves them winning a third seat there. That’s certainly not going to happen with 2.09 quotas. Labor looking more likely to win a third seat than one going to the Greens. Still a long way to go though.

6.59pm. Now 8.2% counted in Yerrabi, and it’s not looking great for the Liberals on these numbers. So far, it looks the same as Ginninderra, with the final seat coming down to the Greens and a third Labor candidate, leaving the Liberals on two. Unless that changes, the Liberals look doomed to fall short.

6.57pm. Ginninderra still looking grim for the Liberals with nearly 30% counted. Result looks like either Labor three and Liberal two, or two each with one for the Greens. So the Liberals need three seats in Murrumbidgee and Yerrabi.

6.56pm. Brindabella looks settled: Wall, Parton and Lawder for Liberal, Burch and Gentleman for Labor. So the question remains whether the Liberals can make it to three in any two out of Ginninderra, Murrumbidgee and Yerrabi.

6.54pm. Murrumbidgee looking very important to the result, with a close race looming between a third Liberal and the Greens to win the final seat. Bec Cody and Chris Steel leading to win the two Labor seats.

6.53pm. Rachel Stephen-Smith leading the field to join Andrew Barr as Labor’s second member in Kurrajong.

6.52pm. Rapid progress now as the electronic pre-polls report. As noted, very little differentiation between party candidate votes in Ginninderra.

6.50pm. ABC computer quickly went from 4% to 11.3% counted in Kurrajong, and now the result looks as anticipated, with two Liberal, two Labor and one Greens. Elizabeth Lee looking to join incumbent Steve Doszpot (she is outpolling him) as the second Liberal.

6.49pm. Very, very close race between the Labor candidates in Ginninderra, with little differentiation between the two incumbents (Yvette Berry and Chris Bourke) and the three newcomers.

6.48pm. Surprisingly good early result for Liberals in Kurrajong, where I had simply assumed before they wouldn’t win three seats, but it’s probably a function of where the booth is.

6.48pm. ACTEC site isn’t coping and ABC doesn’t give booth results, so I’m flying blind as to where these results are coming from.

6.45pm. Comparing that Woden pre-poll result for Murrumbidgee with the overall Woden pre-poll in 2012 (remembering that pre-poll booths are set up to receive votes for all districts), Labor is down 4.5%, the Liberals are up 1.6%, and the Greens are all but unchanged.

6.43pm. FIrst result from Ginninderra didn’t look brilliant for the Liberals. Very early days, but if that continues the Liberals will have only one path to victory, with Yerrabi as well as Murrumbidgee needing to come through for them with a third seat.

6.40pm. Antony discussing a result from Brindabella, which does little to disturb the expectation that the Liberals will win three here and Labor two, although the Australian Sex Party is polling well with 6.6%. As anticipated, Mark Parton looks placed to become the third Liberal, with all four incumbents looking to be returned.

6.37pm. First result is the Woden pre-poll booth from Murrumbdigee. It provides no evidence of independents doing particularly well, and suggests Giulia Jones can’t take for granted being one of the two Liberals elected, if indeed there are are only two, with new Liberal Peter Hosking outpolling her. Antony Green’s projection says the Labor vote is down 6% to 7%.

6pm. Welcome to live coverage of the Australian Capital Territory election count, for which polls have now closed. Results can be followed here at the Electoral Commission site, or here at the ABC.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

207 comments on “Australian Capital Territory election live”

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  1. boerwar @ #49 Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 7:59 pm

    Strong increase for Labor vote in Gininderra.
    They obviously like the idea of getting cross subsidies from the rest of the ACT to increase their land values and transport options.

    I presume you are suggesting that the light rail is going into the Gininderra electorate. Assuming you can read a map of Canberra, you might like to enlighten yourself with some facts:

    http://www.elections.act.gov.au/__data/assets/pdf_file/0011/838901/Final_map_of_ACT_electoral_boundaries_-_2015.pdf

  2. By the way, Boerwar, I live in Ginninderra. I think the problem is not so much a case of ‘wow, we’re being gifted light rail by the rest of Canberra’, but rather there is less of ‘eff you, because I’m not getting light rail’ that seems to have been rampant in Tuggeranong (including Labor voting friends who live there).

  3. Canberrans, especially those north of the lake, make regular trips to Sydney by car. Great until you hit the metropolis where it is grid locked more often than not.

    Why have more cars attracted to Canberra rather than light rail?

    Plus being subject to the Federal Liberal cutbacks and general arse hattery, a tough task for the Libs.

  4. TPOF
    I was engaged heavily in trying to save Bruce and Black Mountain reserve losses because of the Gungahlin Drive extensions and duplications.

    I drove the other day along Horse Park Drive during peak hour. The traffic was single lane and backed up for two kilometres.

    They have just spent a massive fortune duplicating Majura Parkway.
    The common thing with all these three items was that the traffic planning was utter, utter crap. The same people who gave us this utter, utter crap are now giving us Light Rail.

    The second thing is that we have had successive Labor and Labor/Greens governments that depend on land sales for a third of their budgets and they have ‘fixed’ this by urban sprawl that is comparable to, or worse than, all Australian post WW2 urban sprawls.

    If you combine the truly awful transport planning with the excessively low urban densities there are actually no ‘good’ transport solutions at all.

    The only way that the Light Rail is going to get even near 1:1 return is to flog off things like the race course and eventually the biodiversity grassland reserves.

    The other unnerving thing about all this is that there is not even the slightest glimmer of consideration that within two decades we will have driverless cars, electric buses, and how that might impact transport thinking.

  5. Good evening all,

    I am a Queenslander with no knowledge of ACT politics and the issues most important to voters.

    However, it does seem to me that this result is a particularly poor one for the liberals.

    A four term labor government looking like it has increased its vote while the liberal opposition goes backward would not be cause for high fiving in liberal ranks.

    Good work ACT labor.

    Cheers.

  6. I would have thought the Liberals would struggle in Canberra. About one third of the population are public sector employees, while the prosperity of many businesses in the area would depend upon the continued prosperity of those public sector employees.

    Now most of the public sector employees would work for the Federal Government rather than the ACT / Local Governments. Of the Federal employees, a small proportion would be military personnel but the majority would be what are normally called ‘public servants’. Most of them would know that the Liberals think that they are overpaid bludgers, that unless they are military or Liberal political appointees, that they want to eliminate, drastically cut or privatise whatever function it is that they perform. So why would they vote Liberal? Of course, obviously lots do.

  7. I suppose this is stating what I assume people know, but the plan is for the Canberra Metro to be the first stage of a long term system being built. Later stages will be to Woden. They had to start somewhere.

    Also from an engineering viewpoint the first stage is always the dearest. You have to build one off items like maintenance depots, control centres etc. Once these are built and running later extensions get cheaper.

    Just listening to a liberal candidate they ran a negative campaign on trams and rates. They had no chance of delivering lower rates if they won government.

  8. Frickeg
    “Geez, trading Vicki Dunne for Zed Seselja on the ABC was definitely a step down.”
    No kidding! Isn’t he negative. He still hasn’t admitted the Liberal vote is down.

  9. Of sitting MPs, only Jayson Hinder looks to be in any serious trouble at this stage, although of course there are lots of booth results to come in.

  10. Of sitting MPs, only Jayson Hinder looks to be in any serious trouble at this stage, although of course there are lots of booth results to come in.

    Chris Bourke also struggling in Murrumbidgee.

  11. I also know little about ACT politics or issues, but this looks like a very strong result for a government seeking a fifth term. There’s hope for South Australia 2018 yet!

  12. S777
    You are right. It is simply not a Liberal town for several structural reasons. This creates further dynamics.
    IMO a vicious circle operates – they struggle to get anything like good candidates, the base is not enthused, funding is poor and they have the weight of the Fed Libs crushing them.

  13. [TPOF
    Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 8:08 pm
    By the way, Boerwar, I live in Ginninderra. I think the problem is not so much a case of ‘wow, we’re being gifted light rail by the rest of Canberra’, but rather there is less of ‘eff you, because I’m not getting light rail’ that seems to have been rampant in Tuggeranong (including Labor voting friends who live there).]

    The Liberals certainly pushed their anti-tram message very hard in Tuggeranong if the number of roadside corflutes is any indication. Very unsportingly, they placed anti-tram correlates beside, or in front of, corflutes advertising Labor and Green candidates. Their campaign $$ far exceeded what Labor had to spend. However from my observation, the Liberals had far fewer volunteers on the ground than did Labor. In my case for example, four Labor people door knocked my house by nobody from the Liberals. Joy Burch seemed to have an endless supply of young female volunteers while Labor and the Greens also had many young people. On the other hand, the smaller number of Liberal volunteers looked somewhat older. Make of that what you will.

  14. Yes Antony Green just said he “cannot see a path to government for the Liberals”. Probably Liberals 11 seats, best case 12. Labor 12 plus 1 or 2 Greens.

    Under the circumstances, a great result for Labor! Also I think they will do well in four years time. The consistent history of LRT projects has been they are controversial while building, but once built, and people see the benefits, they become much more popular. If four years from now, the LRT is operating, and an extension to Woden is promised, I think Labor could repeat this, other things being equal.

    Anyway, well done ACT Labor! A one seat coalition government returned 🙂

  15. BW

    I was engaged heavily in trying to save Bruce and Black Mountain reserve losses because of the Gungahlin Drive extensions and duplications.

    I don’t know what your involvement was, but the main effect of a lot of the legal challenges to the GDE was to delay completion and blow out the costs of the project. It helped nobody.

    One of the other problems that this government has had – and nobody has mentioned it much – is funding the Mr Fluffy resolution. Given the failure of the Liberal Federal Government to offer any assistance, this is a big cost for the ACT government to fund – as big as the first stage of the tram. Although most of the debt can be paid off through land sales of cleared blocks, a substantial proportion will never be recovered except through ordinary receipts, such as rates.

    I thought the Liberals would do better, although I was pretty scathing of its advertising that very strongly suggested that cancelling the light rail was some sort of magic pudding, allowing huge investment in buses, roads, rates freezes, new hospitals and loads more education resources. In short, the view I got to was shared by a fair number of my fellow Canberrans – which is that the Liberals were not serious governmental prospects. Indeed, they must have sounded a bit too much their federal counterparts – offering all good news with no losers (except for those who wanted the light rail).

  16. Am I correct in thinking the Sex Party’s Steven Bailey is the same person as the lead candidate for Katter’s Australian Party in 2013 who caused such a stir by supporting same-sex marriage?

  17. Airlines

    Andrew Wall speaks really quickly.

    Watch it with the sound turned off—always a good idea with pollies—it makes one think he’s on some kind of stimulant.

  18. TPOF
    FMD
    The main ‘effect’ was to destroy the only breeding pair of Grey Goshawks in the ACT.
    Just as the unchecked urban sprawl has resulted in getting the breeding population of Little Eagles down to two pairs and with further developments out past Belco that will shortly be down to two pairs.
    When it comes to taws Greens like Rattenbury are hypocrites.

  19. Peter Whish-Wilson doing the traditional politician job of calling Antony “Anthony”. This always infuriates me far more than it should.

  20. Alistair Coe, the deputy Liberal leader, was largely responsible for the anti-tram campaign. He came up with a whole lot of “anything but the tram” proposals including direct buses from everywhere to everywhere in Canberra and widening the main thoroughfare into the city from six to eight lanes. He also pushed the “build little hospitals everywhere” line using some of the tram money.

    Coe is young, ambitious and of the Seselja right faction, however a Liberal loss will probably see him come under attack from whichever moderates are elected. The infighting will be interesting to observe.

  21. Interesting – because the pre-polls were done early, so far the Liberals are worsening throughout the evening and Labor and the Greens are improving, which is not what we’re used to seeing on election night coverage at all. Antony mentions the second Liberal seat in Kurrajong might be in danger!

  22. Not likely, but there is still a path open to a Labor majority: they clearly have three in Yerrabi, are fighting with the Greens for a third seat in Ginninderra, and Kurrajong might yet be 3-1-1.

  23. Could this good result for labor be put down to a strong grass roots face to face campaign?

    It does seem that labor around the country at all levels has it all over the liberals in bypassing the MSM and hitting directly to the voters.

    The liberals will need to adapt much more quickly than they have if they want to be competitive on the ground. The ” new way ” seems to be a strong labor advantage atm.

    Cheers.

  24. Greens seem to be firming in Murrumbidgee a bit, but falling away everywhere else. Hard to see them getting up in Ginninderra, although preference behaviour will be interesting there.

  25. This is a terribad result for the Libs.
    This is what you get with such a highly educated electorate.

    I’m also wondering how much the federal coalition govt cuts to and cowering of the public service played with the territory election.

  26. [Slackboy72
    Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 8:57 pm
    This is a terribad result for the Libs.
    This is what you get with such a highly educated electorate.]

    It’s a bit embarrassing to live in an electorate (Brindabella) where the Liberals seem to have a 3-2 advantage over Labor. In some ways Tuggeranong is the “western suburbs” of Canberra, not because of any relative social disadvantage but because the area hasn’t received the same level of government attention as central Canberra or the newer Gungahlin area. The Liberals of course have done nothing for Tuggeranong but swoop in once every four years telling people how badly Labor treats them and how the Liberals sympathise with all their problems. Sadly, this tactic seems to work.

  27. [Doyley
    Saturday, October 15, 2016 at 9:03 pm
    Could this good result for labor be put down to a strong grass roots face to face campaign?]

    That has been my experience in this election – my post at 8:37

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