Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

The only pollster currently in the game finds Labor retaining its modest post-election, and finds opinion finely balanced on superannuation reform and nominating Kevin Rudd for United Nations Secretary-General.

Essential Research, which is still the only polling series back in the game after the election, records Labor maintaining a 52-48 lead in the latest reading of its fortnightly rolling average, with primary votes also unchanged at Coalition 39%, Labor 37%, Greens 10% and Nick Xenophon Team 4%. Also featured:

• Support for nominating Kevin Rudd for Secretary-General of the United Nations was finely balanced at 36% for and 39% against, which was predictably split along party lines.

• Thirty-seven per cent said Tony Abbott should resign from parliament; 25% that he should be given a ministry; and 21% that he should remain on the back bench. A similar question in March found 47% saying he should quit at the looming election, with 18% saying he should be given a ministry and 15% that he should remain on the back bench.

• Capping after-tax super contributions backdated at $500,000 recorded 29% approval and 34% disapproval.

• A question on groups that would be better and worse off under the re-elected Coalition government returned the usual results, with large companies and the high-income earners expected to do very well indeed, small businesses somewhat less well but still net positive, and various categories of struggler expected to do poorly.

• As it does on a semi-regular basis, the pollster asked questions on trust in various media outlets. However, this asked specifically on reportage of the federal election campaign, dropped separate questions for the news and current affairs as distinction from talkback programming of “ABC radio” and “commercial radio”, and in the case of the newspapers, dropped the normal proviso that respondents be be a readers of the paper in question to qualify for inclusion. This led to much lower levels of trust being recorded for the newspapers across the board, while the radio results split the difference between the higher results that are normally recorded for news and current affairs, and the lower results for talkback. As far as relativities are concerned, the results as before find television the most trusted medium, public broadcasters favoured over commercial ones. However, The Australian did not perform significantly better than News Corporation tabloids, as it has usually done in the past, whereas the Fairfax papers continued to record somewhat higher levels of trust than News Corporation ones.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,123 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. Andrew Carr ‏@AOCarr 1h1 hour ago
    Andrew Carr Retweeted Asher Wolf
    Will they all renounce their parties’ efforts to collect identifiable voting data on citizens?

    A good point in relation to those Senators sitting out the Census.

  4. lizzie @ #2999 Tuesday, August 9, 2016 at 10:16 am

    KayJay
    My Ken had a series of TIAs after his first stroke, so many that he took them in his stride, so to speak. He was treated with medication to prevent epilepsy, which worked.

    Many people have TIAs with no symptoms.
    They show up in a subsequent brain scan as lesions in the brain.

  7. lizzie @ #2999 Tuesday, August 9, 2016 at 10:16 am

    KayJay
    My Ken had a series of TIAs after his first stroke, so many that he took them in his stride, so to speak. He was treated with medication to prevent epilepsy, which worked.

    🙁 We have to carry on and do as well as we can. Hopefully with a sense of humour concerning ourselves. I hope in my case for no return of cancer. I am off now and will be pleased to hear more from later posters with information; possible concerning the horrible greens. (The daughter who is taking me to the hospital is a greens voter. She thinks she is keeping somebody honest. This may be true but I cannot for the life of me work out who is the newly honest one. Bye

  8. ‘Again the journos are missing the main point of rudds bid and none are following it up.’

    Now that is a surprise. Some are too busy waiting for Mal The Magnificent to reveal himself in all his glory.
    The triumph of hope over experience is a wondrous thing to behold sometimes.

  10. KJ
    isnt it the bowel cleansing drugs you have to take the day before that is the real stinger? That makes the tube up the butt part of it a walk in the park.

  11. The importance of the 4Corners report in terms of change is with the Press Gallery.

    Yes its all already happening. Now thanks to 4Corners the MSM has to report on the division. We knew all this from Mr Abbott’s thank you speech on election night. We all saw the LNP party room depression as Mr Shorten said Labor is back. Good to relive some of those things.

    So the change will mainly be that the press gallery has been told you cannot ignore this any longer this will count and it really is government doing a high wire act.

  12. Simon Katich

    Since KJ has gone out, I’ll answer for him. In my case, the bowel cleansing was simply litres and litres of liquid. I just couldn’t drink that quantity per hour. Perhaps beer drinkers have more success ; )

  13. zoomster @ #2915 Tuesday, August 9, 2016 at 7:41 am

    Your name and address is in the phone book. No encryption.
    Your name and address is on the electoral roll, which the government already has access to.
    I’m surprised that many here – who decry RWNJs for scaremongering and conspiracy theorism – are subscribing to the Big Brother campaign when it comes to the census.
    If progressive = socialist = big government, then it seems contradictory.

    A name and address is just a name and address. It is something else entirely when attached to so many personal details. Also regardless that someone may be progressive and lean more towards socialism than capitalism, most are in the grey area. As to big government, while people may like a public sector, public services and much that goes with it, it does not mean they aren’t socially geared towards libertarianism, autonomy, self determination, a demand that their rights be respected. People do want their cake and to eat it too which is where Social Democracy fits in as I see it. They don’t want a Big Brother and they want their rights to be respected and they have a right to privacy.

  15. Lizzie,
    I heard from someone i know well who recently had it done that it is a pretty unpleasant few hours sitting after some sort of chemical washout.

    I quickly changed the subject.

  18. Had the 4C program been about the ALP then we would have had front page headlines like “Split”, “Crisis for Shorten”. It seems that that MSM are treating this situation in the Liberal Party with the disinterest it doesn’t deserve.

  19. “Your name and address is in the phone book. No encryption.”

    No it isn’t. Last time I looked this was voluntary, not compulsory.

    “Your name and address is on the electoral roll, which the government already has access to.”

    It is the integration of all the data and the linkages that is the issue, as many experts have already pointed out.

  21. “Had the 4C program been about the ALP then we would have had front page headlines like “Split”, “Crisis for Shorten”. It seems that that MSM are treating this situation in the Liberal Party with the disinterest it doesn’t deserve.”

    Including from the ABC itself!

  22. Liberal party donor and serial tax cheat Garry Bonnacorso is being sued by the ATO again. Here is part of his defence which has a bit of the Malcolm Roberts about it:

    “The Parliament of Australia is not the Legislative power according to section 1 of the Commonwealth Constitution and as such cannot bring about any legislation affecting the living Man
    Garry of the Bonaccorso family is a living being that belongs to God NOT the State.
    “Render to Caesar what is Caesars and to God what is Gods” (Mathew 22.21) Jeasus Died on the Cross for our sins and we are free on earth and not bound by any restraints or form as slaves under a defacto Government or State-Under fraudulent concealment.”

  23. FalconWA

    I thought the title was chosen to pique interest (!), but the content didn’t live up to it, although it certainly wasn’t pro-Turnbull. In fact, Tony came out as the great democrat of the Party. lol.

  24. lizzie @ #3012 Tuesday, August 9, 2016 at 10:39 am

    Simon Katich
    Since KJ has gone out, I’ll answer for him. In my case, the bowel cleansing was simply litres and litres of liquid. I just couldn’t drink that quantity per hour. Perhaps beer drinkers have more success ; )

    No industrial grade laxative?
    Normally 2 doses of Picoprep.

  25. simon katich @ #3015 Tuesday, August 9, 2016 at 10:44 am

    Lizzie,
    I heard from someone i know well who recently had it done that it is a pretty unpleasant few hours sitting after some sort of chemical washout.
    I quickly changed the subject.

    Once you have had the procedure there is no pain or even discomfort.
    The bad part is all in the preparation.

  27. kezza2 @ #2925 Tuesday, August 9, 2016 at 8:24 am

    DTT
    Just curious.
    Why have you NOT been out to your overflowing mailbox yet??
    My census form arrived about a month ago, in a great big envelope. It should not be difficult to find in amongst your months of unopened mail. And it includes the code if you want to do it online.
    And, best of all, you’ll be able to see the questions.

    I received a small envelope with one A4 sheet of paper with log on details. I won’t see questions until I log in. I believe most people only received a log on like me.

  28. Had the 4C program been about the ALP then we would have had front page headlines like “Split”, “Crisis for Shorten”.

    Would it have been aired during the olympics even? Seems olympic coverage is dominating the news reports, as it always does.

  29. poroti @ #2937 Tuesday, August 9, 2016 at 8:41 am

    Forget the hacking. I believe the data will be pretty safe. It is what will be done legally with the data by the Brandis’, Abetzs and Duttons of the world that should be kept in mind.

    Exactly. There are plenty I distrust for good reason since they are untrustworthy and have displayed no ethics and a whatever it takes to implement their agenda attitude. Trust must be earned and sorry but I don’t trust plenty in authority.

  31. It’s really pleasing that SA is leading the pack when it comes to transitioning away from fossil-fuled power generation. Three months ago we closed our last coal-fired power station in Pt Augusta, and rely on expensive gas only as a back-up to our mostly wind/solar power generation. We also have access to the Victorian interconnector.

    AGL is now moving towards utilising our record number of roof-top solar power generators by trialling 1000 batteries + solar for domestic premises. The idea is to use excess domestic power generation to top-up the grid ..ie: each home to become a unit in a massive smart power generation/distribution grid. This will eventually lower the cost of electrical power for ALL users, whether they have roof-top solar, or not.

    Proud to be part of this plan, as we installed eleven roof-top solar panels several years ago 🙂

    “South Australia signalling the death of base-load generation

    http://reneweconomy.com.au/2016/south-australia-signalling-death-base-load-generation-43868

  32. Liberal party donor and serial tax cheat Garry Bonnacorso is being sued by the ATO again.

    OK, so make the bastard pay full freight for everything he uses in this society. He’ll soon start paying tax again. And send him to jail when he refuses. And charge him full freight for that too!

  35. Shellbell
    “Liberal party donor and serial tax cheat Garry Bonnacorso is being sued by the ATO again ……….
    Garry of the Bonaccorso family is a living being that belongs to God NOT the State.
    “Render to Caesar what is Caesars and to God what is Gods” (Mathew 22.21) ”
    The interesting thing about this “defence” was that Jesus was being asked whether it was lawful for Jews to pay taxes to the Romans!! This was meant to be a gotcha moment but he managed to get out of it with a very clever answer.

  37. 4C was a complete FIZZA!!

    ..when the ABC does a six part sitcom called: “At home with Malcolm” I’ll believe they aren’t just another part of the Liberal party propaganda machine..

    ..won’t hold my breath, but..

  39. PS: that Katharine Murphy article which BB brilliantly critiqued was written almost a month ago (15th July)..

    ..mid you, she still thinks Truffles is the re-incarnation of ‘The Sun King’..

    PPS: watch out for a dramatisation of Louis IV called: ‘Versailles’ ..brilliant TV 🙂

  40. kezza2 @ #3036 Tuesday, August 9, 2016 at 11:09 am

    nicole
    Sounds like DTT did as well.
    Motown is obviously considered to be out in the sticks. I got both.

    I wish I had gotten both. I am going to fill mine out using a private browser window but if it won’t allow me the flexibility to leave out my name until I have filled out the other questions, I will contact them and ask for a paper copy. I just want to see what details they want first before i put my name to it.

    I will do it only because I really value the data that comes from ABS stats and don’t want to be a hypocrite. I am really concerned however that people will take leave of the census (and understandably so I might add) to the detriment of the statistics we require in order to plan for the future. It is difficult to address issues and problems when we don’t have reliable data to see exactly what it is that needs addressing or how best to address it. I think for the sake of reliable data, they should have kept it anonymous, no name attached.

  41. I need to go out for a while, things to do, people to see. Should anyone respond to me, I will catch up later. Hope you all have a great day and KayJay as well as can be under the circumstances.

  42. Kezza

    Yeah, well, I think there’s a fine if you don’t co-operate. I hope you’re prepared for it.

    I’ve done mine online.

    Lots of paranoia on show about it.

    ‘They’ already know about us.

  44. CTAR1

    I’m not paranoid about agencies having the lowdown on us. As you say “they” already know about us.

    I’m only concerned identity theft, that’s all.

    Had enough trouble convincing “them” that I was not the person with an enormous debt, living in Sydney, who somehow had exactly the same name, birth date, etc. as moi.

  46. The 4 Corners expose on Lib infighting was a damp squib. Two themes, both rather tedious:
    (1) Factional ‘brawling’ in the NSW branch – real yawn-inducing stuff .
    (2) Disgruntled right-wing MPs in the Fed parliamentary wing agitating for a return to Cabinet – mostly just Abetz having a whinge.
    Abbott was at the intersection of the two themes (rather tenuously to (2)), but he kept his mouth shut regarding the leadership.
    Plus Costello was hovering around like Banquo’s ghost. He gushed a lot of platitudes, and engaged in some rather half-hearted shit-stirring. Apart from getting his mug on tv, I couldn’t figure out why he popped up at all. (Filler, maybe.) Is he bored?

  47. ‘Plus Costello was hovering around like Banquo’s ghost. He gushed a lot of platitudes, and engaged in some rather half-hearted shit-stirring. Apart from getting his mug on tv, I couldn’t figure out why he popped up at all. (Filler, maybe.) Is he bored?’

    Dunno, but he was certainly boring.

  48. “What about blocking software like Ghostery?”
    I’m not familiar with it, but it looks like it only blocks web trackers.

  49. [kezza2
    Tuesday, August 9, 2016 at 11:09 am
    …
    Motown is obviously considered to be out in the sticks. I got both.]

    As did I even though I live 30km from Brisbane CBD. Maybe when the ABS refers to remote they are referring to our attitudes not our locations 🙂

  50. Re: the census

    The point of making the census non-anonymous is that it allows the ABS to do something legally that is completely unprecedented – i.e. have a means of compulsorily acquiring enough information about you to allow all your personal details to be linked across any government databases, including your health records, prescriptions, mental health history, centrelink status & criminal record.

    And this is not tinfoil-hat territory – the ABS have acknowledged this is what they intend to do, but they maintain they will be only keeping the results anonymously.

    No other government department – not the ATO, not the Police, not Medicare, not Centrelink – have this constitutional right to do this, if they only had the legislative power. This is why the census legislation has (in the past) been very carefully drafted, scrutinized and reviewed – a process that didn’t happen with the latest changes to compulsorily remove the anonymity of the census.

    In any case, all this talk about anonymizing your census data is a red herring. Your data can be de-anonymized at any time by anyone with access to your basic information – i.e. name, address and date of birth – such as the electoral role. The ABS can do this of course … and so can anyone else who knows how the ABS generates the anonymized linkage, which of course the ABS will have to tell anyone whose database they want to link to. And this information doesn’t even need to be leaked – it is something that a decent hacker will be able to figure out, possibly within minutes if they have enough computing power.

    To anyone who is planning to complete the census, think twice before adding your name. At the very least, do not put your gender or date of birth – both of these are optional, despite what the form says. For gender you can write in anything you like in the space to the right of the tick boxes, and for date of birth you can instead just put age. This will not affect the statistical usefulness of the census data, but it will make it more difficult – perhaps impossible – to uniquely identify you.

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