Monday night. A spectacular day at the office for Labor’s Cathy O’Toole, who now leads by 73 votes after gaining 39 votes, while LNP member Ewen Jones lost 36. Furthermore, it has been reported that the AEC expects the count to be finalised tomorrow (Tuesday), so there presumably isn’t much prospect of that being chased down. The biggest contributor to the change was the Vincent booth, where, AAP reports, One Nation preferences “were mistakenly put in the LNP candidate’s column rather than Labor’s”. As Kevin Bonham points out in comments, this recount process is picking up a considerable number of errors in counting of preferences because, as I explained in Crikey last week, the AEC skipped with the full distribution of preferences that normally precedes the initiation of a recount, and such votes have been checked one time less than they would normally have been. There was also a significant change at the Northern Beaches booth, where Labor gained 10 and the LNP lost 13. Together with tiny adjustments to the pre-poll and postal totals, changes were made to the results of 12 ordinary polling booths yesterday, bringing the total up to 23 out of 43, although that doesn’t include booths that may have been checked but required no change. Comments thread denizens have ascertained there are 11 yet to be examined, based on time stamps for the booths on the AEC results pages. That will be followed by a full redistribution of preferences, with each last-placed candidate excluded and their preferences distributed in turn, which could yet turn up further anomalies. An AAP report in The Australian indicates the Coalition is preparing two grounds for a legal challenge:
One was the possibility that soldiers based in Townsville were among 628 ADF personnel who were on Exercise Hamel in South Australia during the election campaign and did not cast their votes. The other is whether 39 patients at the Townsville hospital were denied a vote in the late afternoon of election day. Senator (Ian) Macdonald said he understood complaints were made to Townsville hospital staff that patients could not cast their ballots between 5pm and 6pm.
Sunday night. It’s been an action packed first three days of recounting in Herbert, with Labor’s lead mounting from its starting point of eight to 13 on Friday and then to 16 on Saturday, before a reversal of fortune yesterday gave the LNP it’s present lead of one solitary vote. Adjustments have been made over the three days to absent votes (LNP up five, Labor up three) and pre-polls (Labor up 16, LNP up eight) and 11 of the 43 ordinary polling booths (Labor down 20, LNP down five). The two most substantial movements were at Railway Estate (LNP up 14, Labor down 16) and Belgian Gardens (LNP down eight, Labor down one). The Townsville and Kirwan pre-poll voting centres, which were revised heavily in Labor’s favour during the rechecking process, have respectively been changed to have the LNP down six and Labor up five, and the LNP up three and Labor down two.
Friday 4pm. The Herbert recount, which the AEC says could take up to a fortnight, has begun with revision to the absent and pre-poll totals. I’m slightly puzzled by because it seems to involve admission of the last handful of unprocessed votes that have been listed as such for the past few days, or which four are now listed as outstanding. I’m seeking clarification on this from the AEC. The changes have been slightly to Labor’s net advantage, with pre-polls going 16-8 their way, although absents went 5-2 to the LNP.
On topic – if the topic is widened to all ARC machinations – does anyone have any idea why the AEC doesn’t have a Declaration Vote Scrutiny Table for Port Adelaide.
Perhaps this explains why they haven’t called the seat even though Butler has a 30,000 vote lead.
Could they possibly have lost all the declaration votes.
VP – the results of count are under 2 party preferred by vote type. Lots of seats don’t have the tab to Dec vote progress. All clear.
Have the counters gone to lunch?
Rod Hagen
Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 1:14 pm
About 13,500 votes left in recount of the remaining 7 booths. Not sure if declaration votes, Absents/Postals etc have been recounted already or not.
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I did a copy n paste of the completed first count – None of the non ordinary vote figures had shifted an iota last time i looked so i assume they have to be done again too.
49 To Labor, Kirwan East gave The Coalition 2.
6 booths to go.
49 lead with 6 to go!
Kirwin East is done, ALP lead down to 49
Sorry about the echo
Lead is down another 2, to 49, after Kirwan East was added – timestamped 3:23:54PM .
And the double echo! 😉
Thanks for the infor re absents etc. That certainly adds a significant number to get through, though. The remaining booth votes (including those counted informal the first time around) now stands at 12695, after Kirwan East was dealt with.
Slightly of topic but Lisa Singh is at 0.7950 of a quota.
What’s the largest personal vote below the line ever received?
If this is it, what was the previous record?
Sorry one more.
How would have Singh fared if it hadn’t been a DD?
Rod Hagen
Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 3:46 pm
And the double echo!
Thanks for the infor re absents etc. That certainly adds a significant number to get through, though. The remaining booth votes (including those counted informal the first time around) now stands at 12695, after Kirwan East was dealt with.
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I had another look – a 2 vote shift in three labor and 2 coalition columns which look more like small corrections at the end of the first count in absents, prepolls etc — IF these have to be recounted Id say that hasn’t been done yet. …hope I am wrong so we can get this bit done.
Hopefully first, down to 48 (down 1) thanks to the Special Hospital Team 2.
5 booths to go.
Love how Morrison is now assuming that if result goes to Court of Disputed Returns that will automatically lead to a bi-election. Court would need to have good reason to order another election, not just the Libs saying so.
Chris Hobson
They know how to turn on a good sook don’t they!
Th Libs would be crazy to go to a by-election. It would end up a referendum on the election result overall which combined with the annoyance factor, would see them caned.
All this bluster over calling a by-election is just so much hot air. The Coalition would be absolutely crazy to petition for one in court. Imagine the instability such an election would cause? Better to just move on with ‘governing’ and convince everyone that you did indeed win…which in theory is all that matters.
Down to 40 vote lead, with 4 polling places left.
For Labor its very important Cathy O’Toole gets elected. They will have no representation up north federally if she loses, and there are some in the party that were disappointed that Cairns based senator Jan MacLucas lost her pre-selection to Murray Watt earlier in the year.
I’d have thought the last thing Morrison & the Libs would really want in Herbert is a by-election (unless Morrison wants to make a move on Turnbull). If the polls are any guide there is no “honeymoon boost” for them in this election, there is a big un-utilised Aboriginal vote in the electorate that would over-whelmingly support the ALP (if the ALP got their act together), and the regular anti-gov by-election stuff would also come into play.
Turnbull simply couldn’t survive the fall-out from a major by -election loss so early on. He’s on borrowed time anyway! Sure, the Libs may head to the Court of Disputed Returns if they lose, but I very much doubt it is a by-election that they’d be asking for!
How many votes left to count?
I should have added, if the ALP go down on the recount in Herbert and can engineer a by-election through the CDR they’d be mad not to take it. They’d romp it in!
ROD – And as Notag… points out above, Turnbull’s only argument could be: let us win this one to help us govern, which is an admission they can’t govern right now.
@ Kevin One Seven , there’s a touch over 8000 ordinary votes that have not been double checked yet over the 4 booths remaining.
Not sure about postal etc.
Ian MacDonald admitted in Australian that he would be only interested in launching a legal Challenge on army Soldiers and hospital patients not receiving ballot papers if the LNP lose. But if the LNP win, then he said he has no interest in investigating the matter. Really shows what a cynical game he and the LNP are playing with these so called alleged irregularities.
Not sure if this works, but I just looked at the previous 2PP fo those 4 booths.
Together, they had a combined 2PP count of 61 in favour of LNP. Seems to me ALP needs to pick up quite some votes on these last booths. Fingers crossed.
david @ #176 Tuesday, July 26, 2016 at 5:11 pm
Macdonald has always come across as a man of the highest principles!
LNP hacks are just posturing/sounding confident hoping to lessen chances of Labor challenging a loss. And generally assuming that AEC are part of a left wing conspiracy. They should save their breath.
I had a look after you mentioned this, and the Northern Beaches booth, which is also in Deeragun, recorded 20.02% for ON. The North Shore booth, which is nearby, recorded 18.82% for ON. In Bluewater, further out from Deeragun, ON actually pipped Labor 24.84% to Labor’s 24.37%. In actual fact, the reason the Deeragun booth is unusual is not because of the high ON vote, which is replicated across that part of Townsville, but for the fact that Labor did not win it. Labor won all the other booths I mentioned.
Munding barra gives Labor +1. There’s irony for you
K17
Re How many votes left to count: 9692 booth votes left in 4 booths for the recount. Probably the Absents, Postals etc too, but they would have been looked at pretty hard along the way.
Re Turnbull args re “help us govern”. Nah. This wouldn’t work around the Townsville I know. Far more , especially in an election when majors are already on the nose, would simply say “Up yours, Turnbull! We’ll vote for who WE f$%^ing want to!”
I’d love to see the Libs try that sort of strategy because they’ll be absolutely crucified if they do! My bet is even the ADF voters will be p’eed off with the Gov if they try to run on the “army votes not counted” line. Heck, it is the Libs who presided over the adequacy or otherwise of AEC services provided in the election we’ve just had!
Wombat
I think the remaining booths are included in the overall 2PP showing its just the votes recorded are based on the original not the rechecked/recounted votes.
After Mundingburra booth votes for Herbert recount now down to just 3, with 7331 on offer.
That’s three booths, not three votes! Just realised how confusing that could look!
SCOTT – Ta.
ROD – Thanks.
Nah, Wombat. The ALP don’t have to pick up any more votes at all in the 4 booths. They just need to not lose more than 41 to be in front at the end of the booth count. The 61 Libs + you mention are already factored in to the existing count.
Rod: That’s a relief!!!! Thanks.
Down to 39 with 2 to go. The AEC must want an end of count beer
Thanks for all the comments on Herbert. I don’t know enough about process to make any meaningful comments myself. It’s a riveting spectacle.
This is just like the cricket where the batting side is now chasing 41 runs, with three wickets remaining.
Feel free to use this thread to discuss any aspect of counting, in Herbert or anywhere else, without apologising for being “off topic”.
Just North Ward and Rasmussen to come then?
William – do you know if declaration votes have to be recounted in Herbert?
Declaration votes are being/have been recounted in Herbert. I’m wondering though if you might mean, are they re-adjudicating whether votes in declaration envelopes are valid and to be admitted to the count. I’m pretty sure the answer to that is no. From the report in The Australian linked to in the latest update to my post: “LNP scrutineers have asked to see declaration vote envelopes but the AEC has objected.”
Looks like those 39 One Nation votes in Vincent HS preferencing Labor might be the margin. More irony (Pauline, all is forgiven 🙂
Saw a photo of Jones standing behind Turnbull in the Guardian.
Could that be his last act as an MP?
Thanks William, yes that’s what I meant. Are the declaration votes yet to be added to the total or is the current margin of 39 inclusive of declaration votes?
I gather that the first of the Senate results, Tasmania, might be shown tomorrow. More fun folks.
There have been changes during the recount in all the dec vote categories except provisionals. Whether those changes are final I don’t know.