I normally type up results from EMRS’s quarterly polls of Tasmanian state voting intention in a half-conscious state, but coming after the Liberal rout at the federal election three weeks ago, these results are particularly interesting. The poll has the Liberals down four points to 37%, which is their third successive drop from a peak of 48% last November. Labor has risen from 25% in November to 29% in the previous poll to 32% in the current poll, and the Greens are down from 21% to 17%. However, Will Hodgman maintains a very substantial lead over of 48-25 over Bryan Green as preferred premier, down from 51-22 last time. The poll was conducted last Monday to Thursday from a sample of 1000. Kevin Bonham’s quota crunching suggests this would cost the Liberals their majority, reducing them to 11 seats out of 25 or 12 if they were lucky. However, prognostications are complicated by a four-point spike in “independent” to what looks an unprecedented level of 12%.
A Tasmanian state poll suggests the Liberals’ worries in the state haven’t ended with a poor federal election result.