Herbert recount thread

A progressively updated post on the recount in the Queensland seat of Herbert, after the initial count was determined in Labor’s favour by eight votes.

Monday night. A spectacular day at the office for Labor’s Cathy O’Toole, who now leads by 73 votes after gaining 39 votes, while LNP member Ewen Jones lost 36. Furthermore, it has been reported that the AEC expects the count to be finalised tomorrow (Tuesday), so there presumably isn’t much prospect of that being chased down. The biggest contributor to the change was the Vincent booth, where, AAP reports, One Nation preferences “were mistakenly put in the LNP candidate’s column rather than Labor’s”. As Kevin Bonham points out in comments, this recount process is picking up a considerable number of errors in counting of preferences because, as I explained in Crikey last week, the AEC skipped with the full distribution of preferences that normally precedes the initiation of a recount, and such votes have been checked one time less than they would normally have been. There was also a significant change at the Northern Beaches booth, where Labor gained 10 and the LNP lost 13. Together with tiny adjustments to the pre-poll and postal totals, changes were made to the results of 12 ordinary polling booths yesterday, bringing the total up to 23 out of 43, although that doesn’t include booths that may have been checked but required no change. Comments thread denizens have ascertained there are 11 yet to be examined, based on time stamps for the booths on the AEC results pages. That will be followed by a full redistribution of preferences, with each last-placed candidate excluded and their preferences distributed in turn, which could yet turn up further anomalies. An AAP report in The Australian indicates the Coalition is preparing two grounds for a legal challenge:

One was the possibility that soldiers based in Townsville were among 628 ADF personnel who were on Exercise Hamel in South Australia during the election campaign and did not cast their votes. The other is whether 39 patients at the Townsville hospital were denied a vote in the late afternoon of election day. Senator (Ian) Macdonald said he understood complaints were made to Townsville hospital staff that patients could not cast their ballots between 5pm and 6pm.

Sunday night. It’s been an action packed first three days of recounting in Herbert, with Labor’s lead mounting from its starting point of eight to 13 on Friday and then to 16 on Saturday, before a reversal of fortune yesterday gave the LNP it’s present lead of one solitary vote. Adjustments have been made over the three days to absent votes (LNP up five, Labor up three) and pre-polls (Labor up 16, LNP up eight) and 11 of the 43 ordinary polling booths (Labor down 20, LNP down five). The two most substantial movements were at Railway Estate (LNP up 14, Labor down 16) and Belgian Gardens (LNP down eight, Labor down one). The Townsville and Kirwan pre-poll voting centres, which were revised heavily in Labor’s favour during the rechecking process, have respectively been changed to have the LNP down six and Labor up five, and the LNP up three and Labor down two.

Friday 4pm. The Herbert recount, which the AEC says could take up to a fortnight, has begun with revision to the absent and pre-poll totals. I’m slightly puzzled by because it seems to involve admission of the last handful of unprocessed votes that have been listed as such for the past few days, or which four are now listed as outstanding. I’m seeking clarification on this from the AEC. The changes have been slightly to Labor’s net advantage, with pre-polls going 16-8 their way, although absents went 5-2 to the LNP.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

240 comments on “Herbert recount thread”

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  1. The most recent update on my browser is 4:05 pm yesterday, with a recount for the BLV Herbert PPVC & the same 1 vote margin.

  2. Yes, Twetsujin, that is what I get , too, but the vote itself ( overall numbers, booths listed as updated and the 1 vote separation) haven’t changed since 10.38 AM yesterday morning.

  4. We can’t stop George Brandis scrutinerring, even that could be intimidating for other parties to have the Attorney General of Australia there. Basically, Labor needs to get some heavyweight up there to keep an eye on him and who isn’t afraid to challenge Brandis where necessary.

  6. Read the url so gather lawyers are disputing recount? Not prepared to pay to get behind Rupert’s paywall though!

  7. Basically, Labor needs to get some heavyweight up there to keep an eye on him and who isn’t afraid to challenge Brandis where necessary.

    Hee. Hee…..get Dreyfus up there for a look. Brandis would love that.

  9. @ Sally Edsall

    The Australian article quotes Ian McDonald (who’s also acting as another scrutineer in Herbert) as saying that LNP laywers have been sent in to Herbert to prepare for a likely court battle over forcing a new election.

    He also alleging that 39 patients at a ward in a Townsville Hospital didn’t get ballot papers.

    He said that if the LNP do stay ahead in the count, then they might not be keen on a court battle, but then the ALP would be likely to take the matter court.

  10. Pimlico High School claws back 4 for Labor, now 8 behind with 19 booths to go

    Note Pimlico had 1612 formal votes, with some larger booths still outstanding. I’d also love to know how the OneNation votes are playing out. ON was immediately above Labor on the ballot paper, so any donkeys from ON will flow down – assuming they number all the squares.

  16. 39 votes in one booth is a substantial change!

    Was Brandis there? Did anyone get a photo of the look on his face when that little gem came through??

  17. Only 1102 formal votes in Vincent. A change of 39 on recount seems to be a big correction. Sloppy counting on the night and then on the checking too?

  18. Wonder what the bookies are offering for Herbert now. I got Labor at $3.50 a week before election day – go you good thang !!

  20. Another 7 to Labor from Magnetic Island. Only 678 formals there.

    Now 39 ahead, despite Brandy’s best efforts.

  29. These turnarounds are not hugely surprising given that the distribution of preferences stage was skipped.

    But considering it could all go pear shaped for the forces of light and goodness at short notice……i’ll just enjoy it when and while i can.

  30. “These turnarounds are not hugely surprising given that the distribution of preferences stage was skipped.”

    Why is that, Kevin? Simply because the Dist of Prefs phase would have amounted to another counting check along the way?

  32. Why is that, Kevin? Simply because the Dist of Prefs phase would have amounted to another counting check along the way?

    I had a piece about this in Crikey last Thursday. The AEC published a recount policy in 2014 that suggested the preference distribution should be conducted before proceeding to a recount, but it seems they chose to dispense with that step due to the heat they were copping over how long everything was taking.
    https://www.crikey.com.au/2016/07/20/poll-bludger-herbert-recount-continues/

  33. William
    I hope this experience for the AEC will encourage them to hold their ground in future and stick t o the proper process.

  34. But considering it could all go pear shaped for the forces of light and goodness at short notice

    Perhaps, although Labor 1) won the first count by a narrow margin, and 2) with one brief exception has maintained or built upon that lead during the recount. My thinking is that one of two things may happen:

    1. If the distribution of votes (and/or the circumstances that led to particular votes/batches of votes being miscounted initially) is essentially random, then one might expect a “law of averages” type of correction towards the LNP in the late stages of the recount. Of course there’s some mathematical fallacy in that (the ‘law of averages’ isn’t), but it’s still unwise to bet that a random event will produce a significantly nonuniform distribution over ~100,000 samples.

    2. If the votes cast are nonrandom (and/or ‘errors’ in the original count tended to skew to one side or the other), then one might expect the general trend towards Labor to continue. For instance, if LNP scrutineers were more aggressive with their challenges during the initial count, or Labor scrutineers less numerous (because I don’t think Labor thought they had a chance in this seat, so why commit tons of bodies to it initially?), then the original count could have a slight LNP bias baked into it that’s being corrected now that both parties are paying equal attention.

    I’m leaning towards the second scenario. Votes are nonrandom, and politics is always biased as hell. I think we’re seeing an unraveling of a slight LNP bias in the count, which will end up with Labor in front. Hopefully by just enough to defeat any looming court challenge involving disenfranchised military votes.

  36. only 11 booths to go, and Labor lead stretched out to 50.

    I think AR’s theory has some legs. Lots of rusted on Nats doing a bit of casual work for the AEC misplace 1 here, 2 there, a pile of ON preferences on the LNP side. Nobody notices.

    Capricornia could do with a recount, as could Petrie and Flynn. Properly scrutinised. If nothing else, all these QLD marginals will be the battleground next time round.

  37. I think we’re seeing an unraveling of a slight LNP bias in the count,

    Appreciate the reasoning AR….and hope you are right. I think that the difference that 77 vs 76 seats could make to how the HoR works (more potential for indies / Lib RW to rough horse-trade with Mal?? ) makes the end result in Herbert pretty significant. However unless the ALP lead blows out to over 100 then i think there will be lawyers disputing something to try and get a re-run.

  38. sprocket_ @ #86 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 7:08 pm

    only 11 booths to go, and Labor lead stretched out to 50.
    I think AR’s theory has some legs. Lots of rusted on Nats doing a bit of casual work for the AEC misplace 1 here, 2 there, a pile of ON preferences on the LNP side. Nobody notices.
    Capricornia could do with a recount, as could Petrie and Flynn. Properly scrutinised. If nothing else, all these QLD marginals will be the battleground next time round.

    Do you know which booths remain to be recounted?

  41. sprocket_ @ #86 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 7:08 pm

    only 11 booths to go, and Labor lead stretched out to 50.
    I think AR’s theory has some legs. Lots of rusted on Nats doing a bit of casual work for the AEC misplace 1 here, 2 there, a pile of ON preferences on the LNP side. Nobody notices.
    Capricornia could do with a recount, as could Petrie and Flynn. Properly scrutinised. If nothing else, all these QLD marginals will be the battleground next time round.

    There were three or four such mistaken additions to the Lib vote in Cowan too.

  42. (PREPOLL) Divisional Office, Floor 2 Gold Foyer, 143 Walker St, TOWNSVILLE QLD .
    Special Hospital Team 2 Multiple sites, QLD .
    Townsville South Townsville South State School, .
    The Weir Weir State School, Ross River Rd, KIRWAN QLD 4817 .
    Rasmussen Rasmussen State School, 19 Allambie La, RASMUSSEN QLD.
    North Ward Townsville Central State School, Warburton St, NORTH WARD QLD 4.
    North Shore Bohlevale State School, Bohlevale School Rd, BOHLE QLD .
    Mundingburra Mundingburra State School, 77 Ross River Rd, .
    Mount Louisa Mount Louisa House of Praise, 485 Bayswater Rd, MOUNT LOUISA QLD .
    Kirwan East Greenwood Park Sporting Complex, Thuringowa Drive, KIRWAN QLD
    Deeragun St Anthony’s Catholic College Secondary Campus, Cnr Veales Rd & Joanne St, DEERAGUN QLD.

    are the 11 yet to be re counted. .

  43. 6.44pm is the last one posted on AEC web site, so maybe they will pull up stumps for the day and finish off tomorrow.

    Looking forward to the High Court sitting as the Court of Disputed Returns punting the LNP whingers over the fence. The Army guys had 10 whole weeks – count ém – to do their postals or pre-polls. The nursing home papers not being available from 5pm to 6pm on polling day, give me a break

  44. sprocket_ @ #92 Monday, July 25, 2016 at 7:14 pm

    (PREPOLL) Divisional Office, Floor 2 Gold Foyer, 143 Walker St, TOWNSVILLE QLD .
    Special Hospital Team 2 Multiple sites, QLD .
    Townsville South Townsville South State School, .
    The Weir Weir State School, Ross River Rd, KIRWAN QLD 4817 .
    Rasmussen Rasmussen State School, 19 Allambie La, RASMUSSEN QLD.
    North Ward Townsville Central State School, Warburton St, NORTH WARD QLD 4.
    North Shore Bohlevale State School, Bohlevale School Rd, BOHLE QLD .
    Mundingburra Mundingburra State School, 77 Ross River Rd, .
    Mount Louisa Mount Louisa House of Praise, 485 Bayswater Rd, MOUNT LOUISA QLD .
    Kirwan East Greenwood Park Sporting Complex, Thuringowa Drive, KIRWAN QLD
    Deeragun St Anthony’s Catholic College Secondary Campus, Cnr Veales Rd & Joanne St, DEERAGUN QLD.
    are the 11 yet to be re counted. .

    These booths tended to favour the LNP originally…

  46. It is very important who is “elected” this time if a new election follows. Always the challenger can be accused of “bad loser” etc. And if it is LNP who already have a majority in parliament challenging that’s even better because they are unnecessarily sending people back to another election.

    Parliament/HOR will have been working effectively so will look like unsporting behaviour. And if the administration had a few problems then LNP complaining when they could have fixed in in the last 3 years then that’s a triple bad look.

    If the current margin holds up it would be hard to get a new election anyway. Most of the scrutineering is clear cut – just mistakes to sort. But ALP should load up more big guns at scrutineering just to make sure G Brandis SC doesn’t get any free kicks.

  47. O ye of little faith, including me.
    AEC at 6:58pm today, ALP lead by 73 votes. Presumably scrutineered by the Attorney General, so what chance of an appeal.

  48. William or Kevin
    I’m a bit confused about these updated TCP figures. I would think that you can’t do the actual distribution of the preferences until you have finished the recount of all the primaries. So are the figures shown still just ‘indicative’ and could there still be changes when the actual distribution of preferences of eliminated candidates actually takes place?

  49. I would expect the LNP to win a by-election, if it comes to that. A Labor win = more instability, and I think Turnbull’s whining and whingeing about the Mediscare “lie” will have bitten a little bit, despite the gross hypocrisy from the masters of deceitful scare campaigns.

  50. From The Oz via AAP

    ‘Labor has slipped ahead of the Coalition in the final outstanding federal seat of Herbert after a preference counting error was found.

    At 4pm (AEST) today, Labor’s Cathy O’Toole was 31 votes ahead of the sitting Liberal National Party MP Ewen Jones.

    The Australian Electoral Commission had Mr Jones 12 votes ahead of Ms O’Toole earlier in the day, but it is understood One Nation preferences from the Vincent State School booth were mistakenly put in the LNP candidate’s column rather than Labor’s.

    The recount is expected to be finalised tomorrow.

    LNP scrutineers have asked to see declaration vote envelopes but the AEC has objected.

    They have also sought to view the way in which votes are being keyed into the AEC computer, but this has also been rejected. On Monday afternoon a number of “challenge” votes were being reintegrated into the vote piles.

    Lawyers called in Herbert countLawyers called in Herbert count

    If the final recount ends with Labor ahead, it is likely the LNP will launch action in the Court of Disputed Returns.

    But a decision on this won’t be made until the result is formally declared.

    LNP senator Ian Macdonald told AAP there were two issues that needed investigating.

    One was the possibility that soldiers based in Townsville were among 628 ADF personnel who were on Exercise Hamel in South Australia during the election campaign and did not cast their votes.

    The other is whether 39 patients at the Townsville hospital were denied a vote in the late afternoon of election day.

    Senator Macdonald said he understood complaints were made to Townsville hospital staff that patients could not cast their ballots between 5pm and 6pm.

    If the Coalition can retain Herbert, the Turnbull government will have 77 seats in the 150-seat parliament.

    Shadow attorney-general Mark Dreyfus has written to the prime minister to query the involvement of Attorney-General George Brandis in the recount.

    However, Senator Brandis has declined to comment.

    It is not uncommon for senior party members to be involved in election scrutineering, as their experience can pick up anomalies.’

    http://www.theaustralian.com.au/federal-election-2016/federal-election-2016-labor-takes-lead-after-preference-error-corrected/news-story/41bc0c996a43d3d14271bfb5cea941f3

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