Two points to emerge from our friends in the polling community, which passed notice while I’ve been diverted by close counts:
• ReachTEL has published a helpful table illustrating pollster accuracy, which is sporting of them given the attention it calls to the eye-watering accuracy of Newspoll. However, all concerned did very well in predicting a two-party preferred result which, by my back-of-envelope reading, will ultimately settle at around 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition. Essential and especially Ipsos overshot on support for the Greens, with the latter landing around 2% too low for both major parties, but the only other substantial errors involved the balance of support between the Liberals and the Nationals, which I don’t regard as particularly important. Electorate polls were a different matter, and will be looked at in greater detail when all the results are in.
• On the Tuesday evening following the election, Roy Morgan conducted an SMS poll poll from 3587 respondents on leadership approval. The poll had Malcolm Turnbull with a narrow 51-47 lead as preferred prime minister, which the Morgan release sets up for comparison with a 57-24 result from May. However, the May result was an interviewer-administered phone poll, a method evidently less conducive to a “neither/can’t say” response. The poll also found Malcolm Turnbull leading Tony Abbott by 71-25 as preferred Liberal leader, and Anthony Albanese leading Bill Shorten 49-48 for Labor.
Now to an exercise I’ve conducted to get a clearer sense of what sort of areas did and didn’t swing. The chart below shows results of a regression analysis on 6582 polling booth results in which two-party swing data was available, which excludes the 14 electorates where the AEC’s two-party count is not between Labor and the Coalition. The purpose here is to discern if the swing to Labor was more or less evident in areas with particular demographic characteristics. The results record a big move back to Labor in the ever-volatile mortgage belts; an apparent failure of the Abbott-to-Turnbull leadership switch to improve the Coalition’s standing in ethnic communities; and better swing results for the Coalition where voters were wealthier and better educated, and – perhaps more surprisingly – older.
After the constant and starting with “Age”, the table lists the associations between polling booth swings to the Coalition, which in practice usually means negative results recording swings to Labor, and five demographic variables for the census districts in which the booths were located. All but one of these variables, English spoken at home, records a statistically significant association with the swing, as indicated by a score of less than .05 in the significance column on the right. The “B” coefficient of .001 for “Age” tells us that areas with a median age of 40 would generally swing 1% more favourably for the Coalition than areas with a median age of 30. “MFY” stands for median weekly family income and is measured in thousands, so the coefficient means swings tended to be 0.3% stronger for the Coalition for every $1000 of average household income. “School” represents the percentage of the 18-plus population who had completed high school, every point of which associates with nearly 0.1% of swing in favour of the Coalition. Conversely, Labor did 0.02% better for every percentage point of mortgaged dwellings.
The five demographic variables are followed by geographic ones that are there to ensure the results for the demographic variables aren’t influenced by regional differences in the swing, particularly those from state to state. Sydney is excluded so it works as a baseline, so the coefficient for Melbourne tells us that the Coalition would typically do 2.6% better there than at a demographically identical booth in Sydney. Finally, two variables are listed to control for retiring member and sophomore surge effects, which prove to be significant in both cases. “LNPgain” was coded 1 where the candidate was a Coalition sophomore and -1 where a Coalition member was retiring; vice-versa in the case of Labor sophomores and retirees; and zero where neither applied. “ALPloss” was coded 1 where Labor lost the seat in 2013 and 0 otherwise, to measure the boost to the sophomore effect in seats where Labor had a sitting member defending last time. The results suggest Coalition members who won their seats from Labor in 2013 did 2.2% better in swing terms than other Coalition candidates, which reduces to 0.5% in seats where they were replacing retiring Coalition members.
To observe these effects in action, the four tables below identify the 15 highest and lowest ranked electorates by the four statistically significant demographic indicators, and show their two-party swings to the Coalition where available. The lowest education electorates, all of which are regional, were 4.0% worse for the Coalition than those at the top of the scale, of which all apart from Fenner in the ACT are near the centres of the largest cities. Median age was more of a mixed bag — old electorates are regional, but the young ones encompass inner cities, mortgage belts, enclaves, a defence town and the largely indigenous seat of Lingiari. Nonetheless, the distinction here is as great as it was for education, and not in the direction that might have been anticipated from a touted backlash over superannuation policy.
The lowest income electorates, all of which are regional other than two in Sydney, recorded an average 3.5% swing to Labor, only slightly above the national result. But the results for the Liberals were well above average among the wealthiest electorates, over half of which swung in the Coalition’s favour. The mortgage effect is more modest, with 2.8% separating the averages for the top and bottom fifteen. Electorates at the top end of the mortgaged dwellings table are all in the outer suburbs of big cities, but the bottom end is a dissonant mix of regional and inner-city areas, producing a wide range of swing results.
The extent to which this exercise actually explains the results is illustrated by the chart below. For each electorate, the result the model would have predicted is plotted on the horizontal axis, and the actual result is plotted on the vertical. The electorates identified by name are those where the Coalition most under-performed or over-performed the prediction. Keep in mind that this accounts for regional as well as demographic factors, so Lyons shows up as a strong Liberal performance because the swing there was lower than in the other three Tasmanian seats included (remember Denison is not included due to its lack of two-party swing figures). Most electorates’ results were within 2% of the prediction, but a good many had results where alternative explanations are substantially required.
TPOF
Not forgetting it was the Australian newspaper last Friday, that had the front page story of Turnbull and his million dollar donation!!
Barney – A lot of finger point will go on.
I wonder if Textor will get it in the neck?
barney in saigon @ #299 Monday, July 18, 2016 at 9:37 am
I started to wonder how many aboriginal people were tossed out of Pauline’s fish and chips shop in earlier days because of who they were.
victoria Monday, July 18, 2016 at 9:39 am
TPOF
Not forgetting it was the Australian newspaper last Friday, that had the front page story of Turnbull and his million dollar donation!!
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Todays Sleazesralian had his contribution at more like $2 Million ……. good job he still has a reported $199 Million fortune tucked away in case of a sudden election happening soon ….
phoenixred @ #304 Monday, July 18, 2016 at 9:44 am
Turnbull will expect to get a nice little return on his investment. I wonder if he will declare that?
P1 re #293: the inedible in pursuit of the unspeakable?
phoenixRed
Indeed. this article was referred to earlier in thread. Here is some of it again……
Pamela Williams is the journo reporting on same…..
Gathered at his Sydney harbourside mansion on the evening of July 2, Malcolm Turnbull had been Prime Minister for just 9½ months as he watched the numbers come in. Surrounded by his close circle of family, staff, Liberal federal director Tony Nutt and pollster Mark Textor, Turnbull had everything riding on the coming hours.
This was an election night he had anticipated since first entering parliament in October 2004, seeking victory in his own right, on his own terms. He had left no stone unturned.
Turnbull had donated huge sums to the Liberal campaign as it struggled to muster the money for a full-tilt advertising blitz. The Australian revealed last week that he had made a massive $1m donation. But, even this underestimated Turnbull’s largesse, which ran, by the end, to well over $2m.
In the early weeks of the campaign, he had watched his party’s poll numbers shoot up when money was poured into marginal seats. But the advertising effort had been forced to “go dark” for two or three days in the middle of June. Whenever funding thinned out, more seats were in play. More money was needed. Turnbull delivered what was required.
My feeling is that Turnbull “largesse” to ensure he gets to remain PM will not go down well with his haters in the party room.
Sorry. the uneatable in pursuit of the unspeakable.
victoria Monday, July 18, 2016 at 9:49 am
Turnbull had donated huge sums to the Liberal campaign as it struggled to muster the money for a full-tilt advertising blitz. The Australian revealed last week that he had made a massive $1m donation. But, even this underestimated Turnbull’s largesse, which ran, by the end, to well over $2m.
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Andrew Bolt asks the question :
“Did Turnbull buy this election with $2 million of his own cash?”
http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/did_turnbull_buy_this_election_with_2_million_of_his_own_cash/
desert fox @ #293 Monday, July 18, 2016 at 9:30 am
Regarding relevance of hair colour I agree but of course he has the right to call her out on her track record of racism and disrespect towards Indigenous Australians. It is relevant and it should not be forgotten just because she seeks to get them on board now with her anti Islam agenda. Good on him for calling her out on her racism.
phoenixRed
Well Bolt is in the category of a Turnbull hater. Lol!
Zoomster
I think you have hit the nail on the head. You are probably closer to the action within the Liberals than the rest of us, coming as you do from a regional area and with lots of council contacts.
For the rest of us we do not have much of feel for what is going on in the Liberals.
My gut feel is that the party is unsustainable. Just too many RWNJ and with views so divergent from the few remaining small L Liberals. I rather think the one to watch is Alex Hawke. He started life as a RWNJ,. but the arrival of even nuttier RWNJ has made him a moderate – Sort of like Pol Pot making Joe Stalin look like a mild mannered gent.
So maybe he will be the “compromise” candidate.
I am curious as to why Baird is so popular in NSW. If this were occurring in Victoria, he would be run out of town……..
A document marked “cabinet in confidence”, seen by The Sun-Herald, shows the list of campuses across NSW earmarked for sale, and price tags.
They include the full TAFE sites at Chullora, Epping, Belrose, Scone, Dapto, Vincentia, Maclean, Murwillumbah, Corowa, Narrandera and Grenfell.
In 21 regional towns, TAFE would be closed or reduced through a partial sale, with classes diverted to other campuses.
The document suggests selling off the west side of Belmont TAFE at Lake Macquarie for $2.96 million and replacing classes with a limited “pop-up” service in a leased building.
Anyhoo talk later bludgers…………
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nsw-greens-at-war-over-ballot-to-replace-john-kaye-20160717-gq7jmr.html
victoria Monday, July 18, 2016 at 9:55 am
phoenixRed
Well Bolt is in the category of a Turnbull hater. Lol!
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Andrew is probably miffed that he did not get an invite to the ” snouts in the trough soriee ” at the Lodge from Malcolm as he was a regular visitor there when Tony was running the circus …..
victoria @ #307 Monday, July 18, 2016 at 9:49 am
Said the puppet to its master. Hahahahahahahahahahhahaha
People were predicting the demise of the Liberal party after the 2007 election. It didn’t happen. Perhaps they’re dying a slow death, but I’d prefer they died in opposition than dragging the country down with them.
PhoenixRed
Lol! Poor Bolt.
Anyhoo just before I go, this is tweet from Oz re Turnbull donation. Catch you guys later!
Sharri Markson
Sharri Markson – Verified account @SharriMarkson
Further investigation reveals the size of Turnbull’s donation is larger than we originally discovered: over $2m http://www.theaustralian.com.au/federal-election-2016/malcolm-threw-in-millions-but-cash-cant-silence-critics/news-story/53a3dec293c7a3253cd43de97fab6154 …
rhwombat @ #309 Monday, July 18, 2016 at 9:52 am
LOL! But in this case I think both are unspeakable.
It appears one of big losers with Turnbull’s narrow re-election is NewsCorspe.
The drops from the PMO have evaporated. We need to wait for Cabinet to be appointed for normal service to be resumed.
Confessions
The last time I predicted or suspected a decline in the Liberals was way back in 1985, when it seemed as if they were not attraqcting many young people.
As far as I can tell the stacking by the Christian right (then led by Alex Hawke) started in the late 80s/early 90s.
Hey can anyone help us put together an Liberal factional cheat list?
dave @ #290 Monday, July 18, 2016 at 9:22 am
Her Inside tells me that the whole area will be a gun free zone.
The Sharri Markson stuff is just the standard Murdoch mafioso standover modus operandi. Play our game or someone might get hurt, we wouldn’t want that, would we?
victoria @ #314 Monday, July 18, 2016 at 9:57 am
It amazes me too. Imagine what would happen to him if he was in QLD. Are residents so disengaged they have not noticed? I sure hope not. They should kick him to the kerb for his treachery like QLDers did to Newman.
Dtt
Alex Hawke was born in 1977.
DTT:
Alex Hawke is my age. He would’ve been in school in the 80s.
Too scared Cabinet reshuffle drops might make more enemies than any positives that may emerge from early reporting?
Alex Hawke was part of a hard-right push to take over the Young Liberals in 2002. This clique rescinded most of the small-l liberal policy positions of the YLs. He eventually split with David Clarke and the RWNJ, but he’s definitely no moderate.
Just a thought about no Newspoll last night.
Could be an indication that it’s not good for the Coalition so they held back until after the party room meeting.
Wait and see tonight.
@ Barney – more likely just post election lull in polling. No-one barring us tragics will read/care about polls at the moment.
Morning all.
After a week away I offer the following perspectives.
Turnbull may not have bought the Prime Ministership, but he certainly has a sizable down payment on the Liberal Party.
The “secret” coalition agreement just confirms the fact that we have a minority government, even if they get 77 seats. I don’t recall Turnbull being asked about deals with the Nats to win government.
After reading Hartcher’s column on the weekend, the media will reinforce the idea that Shorten’s leadership was under threat leading up to the election and he narrowly avoided a leadership spill, part of me wishes there was a contest so he could be publicly returned overwelmingly.
It will be interesting to see how many leaks there are from the Lib party room meeting.
Thanks Confessions
I was not too sure when Hawke arrived. 2002. Still young at 40.
He isn no moderate but compared with the likes ofthe extremos he may be.
barney in saigon @ #330 Monday, July 18, 2016 at 10:23 am
I suspect it is more likely an indication that opinion polling costs money and there is not a great deal of value in producing a poll like Newspoll so soon after the election. None of the others are polling much either – other than Essential, which produced a routine weekly poll.
I would not be surprised if there was no Newspoll until Parliament returns.
It’s an issue of pros and cons. Mostly cons, though.
While it would be good for members to have their say again – even if only for many who voted for Albanese to change their support to Shorten, a Labor leadership contest would distract from the developing clusterF@#k that is the coalition post-election.
Also, if there was a push back from the hard left part of the membership against Shorten it would provide months, if not years, of media and Liberal ‘look over there, Labor leadership hangs by a thread’ crap. Remember, the fact that the membership voted by a small margin for Albanese was run pretty much every day by the media and the opposition to Labor (Greens, as well as Libs and Nats) until the election.
Scott & TPOF,
Killjoys!
Offering a rational explanation.
Does anybody know what is happening with Herbert? Is count complete at ALP minus 12 which would result in a recount.
The big qn is, what is going to happen when all of the disappointed lib voters who thought they were going to get Super Malcolm after the election start dropping off and the polling tracks down to around 47? Will the libs (a) circle the wagons; (b) go to war with each other. I suspected (b) but even then, what sort of crisis could provoke the govt to fall? Hard to see. Even if they change leaders they will hang onto power.
john of belrose @ #337 Monday, July 18, 2016 at 10:44 am
Counting should be finalised today.
887 votes to count.
john of belrose @ #337 Monday, July 18, 2016 at 10:44 am
There are still 887 envelopes awaiting processing, so I assume that the count is not complete until these are processed.
http://vtr.aec.gov.au/HouseDivisionPage-20499-165.htm
John, no counting yet today. I think they will be finishing it off today?
Sturgeon doing a ‘Boris’:
http://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-36819182
If you ever wanted proof that the FRWNJs running the LNP and The Australian are crazed and irrational ideologues with no self-awareness about how mad they are, I don’t think you could go past this article.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/opinion/liberal-partyroom-meeting-shapes-as-crucial-for-conservatives/news-story/1f82f4bcc4938fe2f6bc5866d19be1b9
It reads like a second year uni assignment from someone using Quadrant as their main reference for cut and paste, but basically argues that the basis of conservatism is ‘morality’ (which on the evidence, I read to mean ‘self-righteousness’, ‘intolerance of others’ moral positions’, ‘prejudiced old testament puritanism’, ‘and ‘hypocisy’ (e.g. ‘moral’ treatment of refugees’)).
It also lumps the left into ‘neo-marxism’ described as ‘the ideology of revolutionary socialism led by manufactured minorities’. Hmmm????!!!! (or WTF!) as we like to say nowadays.
Her hyperbole is that today’s LNP cabinet meeting will decide the fate of the nation – i.e. who wins the culture wars and whether the LNP split. I hope Turnbull stares these loons down, and splits the party but I don’t think he will. Not today at least. Hastie and some other young conservative will get promotions. Abbott will be given some role – maybe not a ministry, but something that saves face and keeps him occupied. If Mal was a bastard he’d make Abbott run the plebiscite ‘yes’ campaign, or run televised hearings into climate science (I actually support Hansons call into a royal commission into climate science, and would extend the terms of reference to include balanced and science-based reporting in the msm. I’d love to see Graeme Lloyd and the Oz editor explain why any tin-foil hatted nutter can get columns into the Oz, without publishing responses from actual climate sciences, and why Lloyd will report the opinion of a surf life saver re: sea level rises as front page ‘proof’ that all those pointed headed scientists and their millions of dollars of testing equipment globally are wrong).
CTar1
Scotland can both remain in the UK and remain a member of the EU. Of course, this would require co-operation (and perhaps legislation) from both the rest of the UK and the EU, but I believe it is possible. Denmark has a similar arrangement with the Faroe Islands.
P1
Maybe. But the Faroe Islands have a population of around 50,000 while Scotland has better than 5m.
Thank you Douglas and Milko and Nicole! Along with Lizzie the Sisters are doing it for the world! : )
I’m back on deck now so will keep an eye on things, like the Reshuffle.
Speaking of which, apparently Malcolm Turnbull told his MPs and Senators at their party room meeting this morning:
“It was a hard fought election victory. Welcome back to 3 more years of government.
We’ve all fought a tough campaign, a very long campaign. A Winter campaign.
This is going to be 3 years of strong, stable economic leadership. 3 years of economic security, national security that Australians deserve.
Our opponents have been unscrupulous.
We will work with every member of the House and Senate, if they are prepared to do so, to deliver good government.
They (the Australian people) have placed their future, their destiny for the next 3 years in our hands.
Every single election, in every seat, is a story. We all know.”
Um, that was it. Lots of triumphalism. Apparently the first majority government re-elected since 2004! Yowza!
Ho hum.
Sonia Krugar, you go girl! At last, someone from the MSM saying what normal people think!
It was a joke, Bemused. I’d seen the video well before. But I thought the description could be seen in another light. OK, so not a very funny joke. Everyone seems to have taken me seriously. Sometimes irony doesn’t work.
Then again, I could lambast everyone for being idiots and halfwits because they don’t agree with what I’m talking about, but that would make me unpopular.
“he’d make Abbott run the plebiscite ‘yes’ campaign”. -Shudder- A sure fire way to ensure people vote No.
desert fox @ #347 Monday, July 18, 2016 at 11:41 am
Why do you think tarring with the same brush every member of a whole and very large religion – with many, many different forms of worship – is going to do anything other than alienate those members of the religion who have nothing to do with extremism, detest and despise extremism, are working with authorities around the world to root out extremism and form the largest number of victims of that extremism?