Two points to emerge from our friends in the polling community, which passed notice while I’ve been diverted by close counts:
• ReachTEL has published a helpful table illustrating pollster accuracy, which is sporting of them given the attention it calls to the eye-watering accuracy of Newspoll. However, all concerned did very well in predicting a two-party preferred result which, by my back-of-envelope reading, will ultimately settle at around 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition. Essential and especially Ipsos overshot on support for the Greens, with the latter landing around 2% too low for both major parties, but the only other substantial errors involved the balance of support between the Liberals and the Nationals, which I don’t regard as particularly important. Electorate polls were a different matter, and will be looked at in greater detail when all the results are in.
• On the Tuesday evening following the election, Roy Morgan conducted an SMS poll poll from 3587 respondents on leadership approval. The poll had Malcolm Turnbull with a narrow 51-47 lead as preferred prime minister, which the Morgan release sets up for comparison with a 57-24 result from May. However, the May result was an interviewer-administered phone poll, a method evidently less conducive to a “neither/can’t say” response. The poll also found Malcolm Turnbull leading Tony Abbott by 71-25 as preferred Liberal leader, and Anthony Albanese leading Bill Shorten 49-48 for Labor.
Now to an exercise I’ve conducted to get a clearer sense of what sort of areas did and didn’t swing. The chart below shows results of a regression analysis on 6582 polling booth results in which two-party swing data was available, which excludes the 14 electorates where the AEC’s two-party count is not between Labor and the Coalition. The purpose here is to discern if the swing to Labor was more or less evident in areas with particular demographic characteristics. The results record a big move back to Labor in the ever-volatile mortgage belts; an apparent failure of the Abbott-to-Turnbull leadership switch to improve the Coalition’s standing in ethnic communities; and better swing results for the Coalition where voters were wealthier and better educated, and – perhaps more surprisingly – older.
After the constant and starting with “Age”, the table lists the associations between polling booth swings to the Coalition, which in practice usually means negative results recording swings to Labor, and five demographic variables for the census districts in which the booths were located. All but one of these variables, English spoken at home, records a statistically significant association with the swing, as indicated by a score of less than .05 in the significance column on the right. The “B” coefficient of .001 for “Age” tells us that areas with a median age of 40 would generally swing 1% more favourably for the Coalition than areas with a median age of 30. “MFY” stands for median weekly family income and is measured in thousands, so the coefficient means swings tended to be 0.3% stronger for the Coalition for every $1000 of average household income. “School” represents the percentage of the 18-plus population who had completed high school, every point of which associates with nearly 0.1% of swing in favour of the Coalition. Conversely, Labor did 0.02% better for every percentage point of mortgaged dwellings.
The five demographic variables are followed by geographic ones that are there to ensure the results for the demographic variables aren’t influenced by regional differences in the swing, particularly those from state to state. Sydney is excluded so it works as a baseline, so the coefficient for Melbourne tells us that the Coalition would typically do 2.6% better there than at a demographically identical booth in Sydney. Finally, two variables are listed to control for retiring member and sophomore surge effects, which prove to be significant in both cases. “LNPgain” was coded 1 where the candidate was a Coalition sophomore and -1 where a Coalition member was retiring; vice-versa in the case of Labor sophomores and retirees; and zero where neither applied. “ALPloss” was coded 1 where Labor lost the seat in 2013 and 0 otherwise, to measure the boost to the sophomore effect in seats where Labor had a sitting member defending last time. The results suggest Coalition members who won their seats from Labor in 2013 did 2.2% better in swing terms than other Coalition candidates, which reduces to 0.5% in seats where they were replacing retiring Coalition members.
To observe these effects in action, the four tables below identify the 15 highest and lowest ranked electorates by the four statistically significant demographic indicators, and show their two-party swings to the Coalition where available. The lowest education electorates, all of which are regional, were 4.0% worse for the Coalition than those at the top of the scale, of which all apart from Fenner in the ACT are near the centres of the largest cities. Median age was more of a mixed bag — old electorates are regional, but the young ones encompass inner cities, mortgage belts, enclaves, a defence town and the largely indigenous seat of Lingiari. Nonetheless, the distinction here is as great as it was for education, and not in the direction that might have been anticipated from a touted backlash over superannuation policy.
The lowest income electorates, all of which are regional other than two in Sydney, recorded an average 3.5% swing to Labor, only slightly above the national result. But the results for the Liberals were well above average among the wealthiest electorates, over half of which swung in the Coalition’s favour. The mortgage effect is more modest, with 2.8% separating the averages for the top and bottom fifteen. Electorates at the top end of the mortgaged dwellings table are all in the outer suburbs of big cities, but the bottom end is a dissonant mix of regional and inner-city areas, producing a wide range of swing results.
The extent to which this exercise actually explains the results is illustrated by the chart below. For each electorate, the result the model would have predicted is plotted on the horizontal axis, and the actual result is plotted on the vertical. The electorates identified by name are those where the Coalition most under-performed or over-performed the prediction. Keep in mind that this accounts for regional as well as demographic factors, so Lyons shows up as a strong Liberal performance because the swing there was lower than in the other three Tasmanian seats included (remember Denison is not included due to its lack of two-party swing figures). Most electorates’ results were within 2% of the prediction, but a good many had results where alternative explanations are substantially required.
Hanson’s the best Australian PR machine ISIS could’ve hoped for.
C@Tmomma
Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 12:37 pm
Shea used lies, lies and damned statistics, trying to impute that The Greens were +1.48% and Labor ‘only’ +1.33% that somehow equated to Labor not doing as well as her beloved Greens.
However, that was The Greens coming off a lower base, so the % can seem greater. Just compare the pair though:
Labor 34.71% or 4,581,028 votes
The Greens 10.13% or 1,337,392
……………………….
Oh dear C@t you’ve made a fundamentally foolish mistake, the same one you made some months ago.
Let me attempt to explain it to you – again.
A ‘swing’ as recorded by the AEC is the % of votes extra [or less] a party gains of ..wait for it .. the total enrollment of that electorate.
In this case the Greens got an extra 1.48% of the about 12 million people who voted in the House of Reps for the whole of Oz and the ALP got a tad smaller number , 1.33%, of the same around 12 million people.
Nothing to do with the size of their bases.
Got it now?
3 other points.
1. Your insults, particularly when based on your misunderstanding of a basic concept, reflect very badly on you.
Perhaps you might have a think about that.
Oh and you owe me an apology, still from last time you made this error, and again.
2. I’m a fella, I use “shea” cos that is the name of the dog of a mate of mine. He [the dog] would not like being that as a female.
3. I popped in to see what ER was up to and wished I hadn’t.
The nastiness has reached a level where I reckon I’ll vacate this site.
Its not worth it.
Bye.
PS. I’ll check back once or twice later today to see if you have the manners to admit your error and apologise.
meher baba @ #1047 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 1:36 pm
In fact, Christians under Moorish Spain went through periods of being welcome and being suppressed, depending on the outlook of the government (and the Caliph) of the day. But Christians actually fought for Moors against Christians, etc as mercenaries. The expulsion of the Jews from Spain by Ferdinand and Isabella in 1492 had nothing to do with their relationship with the Moors. It was driven by religious fanaticism on the part of the Catholics, which was heightened by their final conquest of Spain in that year, and by the desire to seize what wealth they could from the Jews on the way out. Just like it was religious fanaticism, psychopathy and power that drove the subsequent Spanish Inquisition.
Ironically, it was the Caliph in newly conquered (1453) Constantinople, renamed Istanbul, who welcomed the Jews into a multicultural, multilingual Ottoman Empire which strengthened and grew as a result of having Jews, Christians and other peoples and sects of Islam within the Empire contributing to it.
meher baba @ #1047 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 1:36 pm
Your impression is mistaken. Completely mistaken. For several centuries after the Christian conquest the Moorish population survived as a minority with protected rights. Eventually, this broke down. The Moors were subject to every violence for no reason at all…simply because, like the Jews, they stood as an exception to Catholic reaction.
This was a religiously-calibrated genocide….and, as we know too well, certainly not the last to be carried out in Christian Europe. We should not under-estimate the human capacity for calculated mass murder.
briefly @ #1050 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 1:42 pm
There will always be people within any community who have violent psychopathic tendencies. The community can either suppress those tendencies through the rule of law or open up outlets for the expression of violence, anger and hatred. Nazi Germany and Soviet Russia are classic modern examples where psychopathic behaviour was harnessed and encouraged by the State. ISIS is the most recent example. Rwanda and Cambodia are other extreme examples. In the USA psychopaths have taken to killing police under the pretence of getting revenge for blacks killed by the police. But they are just murderers who have no qualms about killing black police in furtherance of their primal objectives.
The test for any society is to keep these people suppressed. The best societies achieve this; the worst ones just provide more and more opportunities to express violence and hatred.
[Does anyone know the full story?]
So he can be pigeon holed?
The points he was trying to make was that its not black and white and that just because someone has ‘Muslim’ labelled to them doesnt mean they are dangerous to the community.
He seemed to be very uncomfortable discussing what his religion is. Which is understandable and preferable. Where we have the separation of church and state a politicians religion should be of little importance, its their values that should be prominently discussed.
tpof @ #1049 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 1:40 pm
Once again, exactly right, T.
I think that this article (linked to further up the page) is written without understanding the system of recounting DD votes to see which of the 12 candidates would won in a half-Senate election. It seemed to imply that order of election would be used but with a higher quota. This is not true. It counts like in a normal Senate count and preferences come into play. This helps the bellow quota Greens (Rhiannon, Waters and Hanson-Young (although the SA Greens poor result means that they are very behind under any system)), Hanson and Hinch stay in the race by allowing them to pick up preferences. Under the first elected system, the Greens and One Nation would only get long term Senators in states they polled over quota (Tas, Vic and WA for the Greens, Qld for One Nation (contrary to the article`s assertion, Hanson would win under first elected)), crippling the Greens chances of increasing their Senate numbers at the next Senate election, and Hinch would get a short term. The only crossbencher who may be disadvantaged under recounting method is Stirling Griff, NXT no.2, who is certain of a long term under first elected and would be in with a chance (but not certainty) of loosing under recounting.
http://www.afr.com/news/politics/election/election-2016-pauline-hanson-and-derryn-hinch-may-not-be-around-for-long-20160704-gpy204
Meher
About your long post above.
All you describe is the “theory” about Sunni Muslim religion. You jump from that to suggesting that Sunnis here in Australia accept the theory; and that therefore because of their Sunni religion they are a real danger to us.
Let me tell you about R Catholicism “theory”.
Divorce, abortion, “mass-debating”, euthanasia, condoms, the pill, adultery, clerical celibacy, holy purity, love thy neighbour, give up your worldly goods and follow JC, and the 10 commandments are some of the “theory”.
Why then are there so many RCs on the pill, using condoms, adulterously screwing “their neighbour” literally and financially, worshipping mammon, disowning refugee responsibility, ignoring the pope etc etc.
In all religions there is scant adherence to the “theoretical rules” unless the religions leaders are in a position to punish transgressors.
To say that Sunni’s here on the whole follow all the rules, especially the over the top ones that characterise ISIS is nonsense, especially since while living in Australia they won’t have their head cut off for daring to speak or act contra to the rules, and according to their own minds and hearts.
There may be a few madder ones here, just like there are a few RC nutters who blindly and irrationally follow the RC rules literally, and amongst other things truly believe that no priest would sexually interfere with young kids.
As we know Meher, here in Australia even the church leaders, clergy do not follow their own rules and beliefs.
I suspect Ms Hanson’s message is getting to you.
There has been some talk of the differences between Islam and Christianity and the word ‘reformation’ has come up.
I think a reformation of Islam is well and truly underway and for many muslims it has already been achieved. This has happened by accident – through a cultural blending created by the most recent globalisation. Many muslims have taken up (and become standard bearers) for some of the best cultural traditions of the West whilst keeping most of the traditional values of Islam.
The last time such cultural blending happened was when the Christian ‘West’ absorbed the Islamic Golden Age. This of course led to some small changes like the Renaissance, Scientific Revolution…..
I am not scared of muslims, or Islam. I am scared of isolationism. Isolationism = stagnation = decay. Hanson would like Australia to embrace it and force it on Islam. Bad idea.
Oh dear!
“Andrew Landeryou, David Asmar, George Droutsas and Dean Sherriff were arrested for allegedly vandalising Greens and Liberal polling material at multiple polling stations from Elwood to Port Melbourne, and allegedly driving at volunteers who tried to stop them.
All four men were heavily involved in the election campaign of Michael Danby, the Labor MP for Melbourne Ports, who is likely to be re-elected with a reduced margin after a tight, three-way battle for the seat.
Mr Landeryou, a controversial former blogger, is a personal and political confidante of Mr Shorten, while another close ally of the Labor leader, Mr Asmar, has been linked to a mammoth branch-stacking scandal.”
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/friends-of-labor-leader-bill-shorten-arrested-for-alleged-vandalism-spree-on-election-morning-20160715-gq6viw.html
david @ #1025 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 12:43 pm
I will have to dispute Coorey’s understanding of both counting systems here.
I am given to understand that under the traditional DD count, the full quotas are counted first. Each group over 1 quota gets a run first, so if say LNP gets 3.5, Labor gets 3.1, ONP gets 1.1, the first 3 Senators elected are 1 LNP, 1 Labor, 1 ONP, followed by 1 LNP, 1 Labor, then 1 LNP, 1 Labor, after which, the groups that get the lowest number of votes have their preferences distributed, followed by the next lowest group, until someone gets a full quota.
In the section 282 method, a calculation is done as if a half-Senate election is run, electing 6 Senators with the current result. This 6 Senators are allocated the long 6 year terms, with the remaining Senators (the last 6 of 12) given the 3 year terms.
Looking at Queensland’s numbers, the half-Senate quotas would be close to 2.48 to LNP, 1.86 to Labor and 0.63 to ONP. This might roughly translate to 3, 2 and 1 seats respectively to each party.
I would be happy to be proven wrong if it means Waters get that 6th seat from minor preferences stacking on top of the half-Senate quota of 0.47, thus over-taking ONP.
Antony Green wrote an article on how DD terms are derived: http://blogs.abc.net.au/antonygreen/2016/04/how-long-and-short-terms-are-allocated-after-a-double-dissolution.html
simon katich @ #1060 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 2:16 pm
Hanson would have us intern ourselves, to barricade ourselves behind her confected fears.
nicole @ #969 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 11:02 am
You appear to be saying that atheism is a form of religion.
If that is what you mean, then if I don’t collect stamps, I have the hobby of not collecting stamps?
meher baba @ #1044 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 1:27 pm
You speak as if Australian Muslims are a completely different group of people.
I am an agnostic myself and Sam Dastyari’s admission (was it really an admission?) caught me by surprise.
[I have the hobby of not collecting stamps?]
Are you one of these ‘not stamp collectors’? A very dodgy hobby if ever there was one. I am not sure you can be trusted. I will be watching you.
From Wikipedia:
Sam Dastyari worships at the Sussex St alter of the NSW ALP Right faction.
I suspect that is as far as his religious beliefs go.
simon katich @ #1066 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 2:26 pm
It’s a slippery slope. First you start not collecting stamps. Soon you are also not collecting coins. Before you know it you have lost all self-respect and are not collecting knitted doilies and teapot covers!
simon katich @ #1056 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 1:54 pm
He did start to explain that since he was born in an Islamic country he was deemed to be Muslim, but got interrupted before he could go further.
Ed Husic is quite untroubled by being a Muslim.
I really don’t think Dastyari is in fact Muslim but has that background where he was deemed to be one. I recall reading somewhere that his family were Bahai which led to the exit from Iran.
Frankly, I don’t give a damn.
Also I’m getting a bit tired every time I hear on the radio of callers who say the Muslim leaders have not gone far enough to condemn acts of terror.
Various leaders from different Muslim organisations in Australia has fronted the media and done this countless of times.
Does it need to come as a blood oath from every member of the faith?
sprocket_ @ #1068 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 2:30 pm
From what I’ve seen of Sam, he’s a member of the choir of true believers.
player one @ #1069 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 2:32 pm
That’s clearly going too far. Enough of that.
Full Essential poll now posted.
TPP: ALP 51 (0) L/NP 49 (0)
Primaries: L/NP 39 (-2) ALP 36 (0) GRN 10 (0) NXT 4 (+1) OTH 1 (0)
http://www.essentialvision.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/Essential-Report_160719.pdf
Note the leadership, greyhound, and Senate voting questions
P1
I heard that is how Emma Goldman and Richard Dawkins got corrupted. Once they got to not knitting doilies they couldnt be saved.
player one @ #1069 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 2:32 pm
I know, I know.
I admit it, I am now out of the cupboard, I have thousands, perhaps millions, of non-hobbies. Is there an AA for people without hobbies?
Perhaps I could collect beer bottle caps and work up from there on the path to redemption.
don @ #1067 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 2:28 pm
That last sentence appears to be an addition from when I looked. Possibly derived from Q&A.
And in news sure to enrage Briefly et al, Greens supporters were found by police to have interfered with the Labor campaign by damaging the front of the car of Danby’s friends with their bodies.
Police have thankfully arrested The Greens for ‘supporting the Liberal party’, the most heinous of all crimes.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/friends-of-labor-leader-bill-shorten-arrested-for-alleged-vandalism-spree-on-election-morning-20160715-gq6viw.html
You appear to be saying that atheism is a form of religion.
If that is what you mean, then if I don’t collect stamps, I have the hobby of not collecting stamps?
I’m currently vigorously exercising by lying in bed and dieting by eating vegemite and cheese on toast.
jeffemu @ #972 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 11:06 am
Personally I’d have him there for the entire recount.
It was looking like the Libs would hold it until he turned up.
Things seemed to turn to shit once he arrived on the scene.
Don
I think you are too far gone for that. I recommend you start intensively collecting crocheted toilet roll covers. This has been known to cure really bad cases of non-collecting.
I suspect that is as far as his religious beliefs go.
He’s a firm believer in the Halal Snack Pack
Especially the fine fare at my local – the great King Kebab of Queen St Campbelltown!
https://youtu.be/j5N_yrgdKCk
http://www.goodfood.com.au/eat-out/news/senator-sam-dastyaris-guide-to-halal-snack-packs-20160713-gq4whn.html
That means that all three Muslim federal parliamentarians (Ed Husic, Anne Aly, and Sam Dastyari) are supporters of marriage equality, while many, if not all, of the opponents of marriage equality in Parliament oppose it on Christian grounds.
Seems to me that it’s Christians that are the danger to Australia’s progress, not Muslims.
Is bitcoin collecting a not-not-collecting non-hobby?
I feel quite bad about this anti-Muslim hysteria and wish there was more I could do to confront it.
I have quite a number of Muslim friends who are mostly quite secular and will enjoy a glass of ‘halal’ wine with me. One day one referred to going to church and I pulled him up and said you mean the mosque don’t you. he just replied WTTE “yeah, yeah, whatever, all the same….” Make of that what you will.
A couple of others are a bit more serious about it and one wears a hijab and they cannot be enticed to try the ‘halal’ wine. Otherwise, same as the others.
So what can I do to make my Muslim friends and other Muslims more comfortable?
Whenever I encounter one I make a point of giving them a friendly smile and treating them no different to anyone else.
I just feel embarrassed by the hysteria and how they must be feeling. It’s just not right and the people responsible should be dealt with by being challenged at all opportunities.
simon katich @ #1084 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 2:47 pm
Difficult question. Unlike most other collectibles, bitcoins actually decrease in value over time. Eventually, they vanish up their own block chains. So I’m not sure they count as “collecting”.
Bemused
It is a recent entry. I checked the wiki reference and it was to Q & A LAST NIGHT. Talk about quick updates.
Don
Does that mean you buy albums to put them in but don’t actually put stamps in them.
What about Katter? Certainly his forefathers were Muslim.
New thread.
He did start to explain that since he was born in an Islamic country he was deemed to be Muslim, but got interrupted before he could go further.
Ed Husic is quite untroubled by being a Muslim.
I really don’t think Dastyari is in fact Muslim but has that background where he was deemed to be one. I recall reading somewhere that his family were Bahai which led to the exit from Iran.
Frankly, I don’t give a damn.
That seemed to be his point – that because he was born in an Islamic state and so by default was considered by his government as a Muslim he would have been banned from coming to Australia by the likes of Hanson if they had their way. Dastyari may be many things and not all of them good, but he made the point well that banning a little kid from coming to Australia because he’s a ‘Muslim’ and therefore scary as fuck to nitwits like Hanson and Krueger is stupidity on a pogo stick.
scott bales @ #1078 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 2:40 pm
Let’s see what facts emerge. I’m not one to hasten to judgment based on the hearsay of G-bludgers.
Great work Cat,
I loved Wilcox’s effort.
Here’s another from Cathy Wilcox. God’s not having a good day:
Wondering what’s going on with Essential re: rounding and preferences.
Using Lib += 0.17 * Greens + 0.53 * others and assuming there is no rounding gives the Libs 48.12.
Are they using 2013 preferences still?
The best way to defeat Hanson and One Nation is to campaign against them on what she votes for ,or against in the senate.The government is saying they have a mandate to pass their budget and my observation from watching Hanson on Q & A last night was that she was inclined to pass government measures as they had a “mandate” or wtte.I wonder how the supporters of One Nation will take to being charged a GP co-payment or the myriad of other service cut backs that the Libs wish to impose.?
Actually Katter senior senior, claimed to be Lebanese Maronite, but I wonder?
Yeah, nah.
The ultimate limit is 20,999,999.9769 bitcoins. The fact that this is finite and known is one of the redeeming features of the technology – it cannot be inflated away.
Of course, the fact that it can’t be used to pay your tax bill is one reason you might hesitate to call it a true currency.
Scott,
About time, too!
Shea McDuff,
If that’s the way that the % increase in votes is calculated then you are right and I am wrong, I apologise. Congratulations on your little victory.
Labor still performed 1400% better than The Greens if you measure the increase in their numbers in the House of Representatives though.
So, looking at it from that perspective, Larissa Waters could still be said to have not been telling the truth on QandA. Labor did not go backwards at all in the election actually. The Greens went backwards at the election, if numbers of Senators and HOR seats are counted.That is if we look at it from the perspective of the brutal arithmetic which applies to politics and elections.
Hello all,
I would like to posit a question.
Now that we’ve just had an election & Tony Abbott has won his seat again, isn’t the provision available in the days after an election for one of the losing candidates to challenge his eligibility to take his seat and thus confirm if he has or has not renounced his British citizenship?
I know it’s a bit of a birther type subject, but if he hasn’t….