Election plus two weeks

A deep look at federal election swings, plus a few meagre snippets of post-election polling news.

Two points to emerge from our friends in the polling community, which passed notice while I’ve been diverted by close counts:

• ReachTEL has published a helpful table illustrating pollster accuracy, which is sporting of them given the attention it calls to the eye-watering accuracy of Newspoll. However, all concerned did very well in predicting a two-party preferred result which, by my back-of-envelope reading, will ultimately settle at around 50.5-49.5 to the Coalition. Essential and especially Ipsos overshot on support for the Greens, with the latter landing around 2% too low for both major parties, but the only other substantial errors involved the balance of support between the Liberals and the Nationals, which I don’t regard as particularly important. Electorate polls were a different matter, and will be looked at in greater detail when all the results are in.

• On the Tuesday evening following the election, Roy Morgan conducted an SMS poll poll from 3587 respondents on leadership approval. The poll had Malcolm Turnbull with a narrow 51-47 lead as preferred prime minister, which the Morgan release sets up for comparison with a 57-24 result from May. However, the May result was an interviewer-administered phone poll, a method evidently less conducive to a “neither/can’t say” response. The poll also found Malcolm Turnbull leading Tony Abbott by 71-25 as preferred Liberal leader, and Anthony Albanese leading Bill Shorten 49-48 for Labor.

Now to an exercise I’ve conducted to get a clearer sense of what sort of areas did and didn’t swing. The chart below shows results of a regression analysis on 6582 polling booth results in which two-party swing data was available, which excludes the 14 electorates where the AEC’s two-party count is not between Labor and the Coalition. The purpose here is to discern if the swing to Labor was more or less evident in areas with particular demographic characteristics. The results record a big move back to Labor in the ever-volatile mortgage belts; an apparent failure of the Abbott-to-Turnbull leadership switch to improve the Coalition’s standing in ethnic communities; and better swing results for the Coalition where voters were wealthier and better educated, and – perhaps more surprisingly – older.

2016-07-17-regression

After the constant and starting with “Age”, the table lists the associations between polling booth swings to the Coalition, which in practice usually means negative results recording swings to Labor, and five demographic variables for the census districts in which the booths were located. All but one of these variables, English spoken at home, records a statistically significant association with the swing, as indicated by a score of less than .05 in the significance column on the right. The “B” coefficient of .001 for “Age” tells us that areas with a median age of 40 would generally swing 1% more favourably for the Coalition than areas with a median age of 30. “MFY” stands for median weekly family income and is measured in thousands, so the coefficient means swings tended to be 0.3% stronger for the Coalition for every $1000 of average household income. “School” represents the percentage of the 18-plus population who had completed high school, every point of which associates with nearly 0.1% of swing in favour of the Coalition. Conversely, Labor did 0.02% better for every percentage point of mortgaged dwellings.

The five demographic variables are followed by geographic ones that are there to ensure the results for the demographic variables aren’t influenced by regional differences in the swing, particularly those from state to state. Sydney is excluded so it works as a baseline, so the coefficient for Melbourne tells us that the Coalition would typically do 2.6% better there than at a demographically identical booth in Sydney. Finally, two variables are listed to control for retiring member and sophomore surge effects, which prove to be significant in both cases. “LNPgain” was coded 1 where the candidate was a Coalition sophomore and -1 where a Coalition member was retiring; vice-versa in the case of Labor sophomores and retirees; and zero where neither applied. “ALPloss” was coded 1 where Labor lost the seat in 2013 and 0 otherwise, to measure the boost to the sophomore effect in seats where Labor had a sitting member defending last time. The results suggest Coalition members who won their seats from Labor in 2013 did 2.2% better in swing terms than other Coalition candidates, which reduces to 0.5% in seats where they were replacing retiring Coalition members.

To observe these effects in action, the four tables below identify the 15 highest and lowest ranked electorates by the four statistically significant demographic indicators, and show their two-party swings to the Coalition where available. The lowest education electorates, all of which are regional, were 4.0% worse for the Coalition than those at the top of the scale, of which all apart from Fenner in the ACT are near the centres of the largest cities. Median age was more of a mixed bag — old electorates are regional, but the young ones encompass inner cities, mortgage belts, enclaves, a defence town and the largely indigenous seat of Lingiari. Nonetheless, the distinction here is as great as it was for education, and not in the direction that might have been anticipated from a touted backlash over superannuation policy.

2016-07-17-tables-B

The lowest income electorates, all of which are regional other than two in Sydney, recorded an average 3.5% swing to Labor, only slightly above the national result. But the results for the Liberals were well above average among the wealthiest electorates, over half of which swung in the Coalition’s favour. The mortgage effect is more modest, with 2.8% separating the averages for the top and bottom fifteen. Electorates at the top end of the mortgaged dwellings table are all in the outer suburbs of big cities, but the bottom end is a dissonant mix of regional and inner-city areas, producing a wide range of swing results.

The extent to which this exercise actually explains the results is illustrated by the chart below. For each electorate, the result the model would have predicted is plotted on the horizontal axis, and the actual result is plotted on the vertical. The electorates identified by name are those where the Coalition most under-performed or over-performed the prediction. Keep in mind that this accounts for regional as well as demographic factors, so Lyons shows up as a strong Liberal performance because the swing there was lower than in the other three Tasmanian seats included (remember Denison is not included due to its lack of two-party swing figures). Most electorates’ results were within 2% of the prediction, but a good many had results where alternative explanations are substantially required.

2016-07-17-model-B

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,112 comments on “Election plus two weeks”

  1. For the past few days – through election exhaustion I suppose – have watched from the side lines. One thing is for sure, the damned ‘Greens ain’t us’ warfare still goes on, so I guess this is just innate to PB.
    I watched snippets of the Hanson stuff on QA last night and it is a devil’s dilemma. On the one hand, you want to believe that the overwhelming majority of our fellow citizens are not driven by primal responses such as greed/fear/hate but on the other hand, enough of them voted for PH and two or three others of similar ilk to sit in a strategic position in the Senate. On the other hand, knowing that perhaps 30% (a guess on my part) of the electorate are driven by these base responses and that they now have their views in the open and subject to scrutiny is, on balance, a win. This group, as represented by the likes of PH, can now say what they like but now are no longer able to hide these words behind the…”I can’t say this because it is not politically correct” defence. I am more than happy for them to have their views fully exposed to the full light of day and have them attacked for what they represent – fear, hate, greed and ignorance.
    What does bother me is this change is now bringing the extremists from both sides out on to the street. I guess we are just catching up with the rest of the world in this regard.

  2. daretotread @ #931 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 9:35 am

    Of course the reality is that we KNOW from voting and preferences that 83% of greens voters recognise the commonality of goals between Labor and Greens.

    There’s no doubt at all that the share of G PV going to Labor will have declined significantly at this election. In Lib-leaning booths, the ratio of G prefs flowing to the Liberal will be as high as 30%…even higher in some places. I reckon that practically all of the increase in G PV at this election came from Lib-leaning voters who returned their prefs to the Liberals.

    The Gs continue to position themselves as a party that is hostile to Labor. This does not rest easily with many G-positive voters but has at last one advantage – it is an honest reflection of G-party beliefs.

  3. victoria @ #916 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 9:09 am

    Someone asked earlier re the seat of Herbert. Count finished yesterday with Labor ahead by 8 votes. recount of seat will be done today

    Thanks Victoria. I asked the following question yesterday but got no answer – During a recount, do they re-scrutineer all votes, or only recount the ones already scrutineered? In such a close contest, this could make a significant difference!

    Does anyone know?

  4. @ Briefly – I love your contradictory posts.

    The ~80% of votes that come to the Greens from Labor voters, and flow back to Labor as preferences are bad, because they are The Greens taking votes from Labor, showing how the Greens are ‘helping the Liberals’

    The 20% of Greens votes that come from Liberal voters, and flow back to the Liberals as preferences are bad, because it shows that if the Greens are attracting 1/5th of their votes from the Liberals, it must be because they are too similar to the Liberals.

    Make up your mind what you want to criticise The Greens for. This having your cake and eating it too is ridiculous.

  5. Nicole
    Yes I probably agree with you. Re the AS issue we may well think alike. I was always tolerant of the Manus decision because at that time there WAS a problem, coming especially from Iran. Now I have nothing against Iranians, but by and large do not see them as refugees. Manus was a shock treatment that seems to have worked to stem the flow of essentially economic migrants from Iran and to an extent Pakistan.

    I sincerely hope that if Labor had returened to power, that we would have managed Nauru and Manus without the human rights abuses that have been core policy for Morrison and Dutton.

  6. Islamophobia is a stupid term.
    Invented by theocratic govts in the middle east to snuff out any dissent or opposition criticism.
    It is sad so many now parrot that stupid term.
    It seems some naive people instead suffer from ‘Islamophilia’
    Where any fair and necessary criticism of the worlds most backward, misogynistic and violent religion is glossed over by apparent progressives as they seek to excuse, obfuscate and deny current day reality.
    Womens rights, gay rights and religious freedom are to be thrown under the bus all for the sake of tolerating a disgusting and outdated ideology.
    To prove my point I look forward to the first idiot here to bring up the KKK or abortion bombings or the crusades.
    When some 95% of all modern terror attacks are done in the name of this particular fanciful religion those who decide that the hurt feelings of western Muslims are more important than the slaughtered women and children on the ground should be utterly ashamed.
    On the issue of Islam those who make up the regressive left are so far out of touch with reality that it is depressing.
    A phobia is an irrational fear.
    There is nothing irrational at all in hating Islam.

  7. “Now I have nothing against Iranians, but by and large do not see them as refugees.”

    This kind of ‘thinking’ gives me the shites.
    FFS there are well established legal processes to determine if someone is a refugee or not, and what you or anyone else thinks of the inhabitants of an entire nation, is thankfully totally irrelevant.

  8. player one @ #953 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 10:27 am

    victoria @ #916 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 9:09 am

    Someone asked earlier re the seat of Herbert. Count finished yesterday with Labor ahead by 8 votes. recount of seat will be done today

    Thanks Victoria. I asked the following question yesterday but got no answer – During a recount, do they re-scrutineer all votes, or only recount the ones already scrutineered? In such a close contest, this could make a significant difference!
    Does anyone know?

    It’s a full recount so I would imagine every vote cast is looked at and scrutinised again.

  9. Briefly
    I suspect you are talking absolute rot. Let us wait and see about preferences. The evidence of say a booth like Melbourne Ports seems to be totally undercutting your suggestion. If as you say the greens preferences dropped away, Danby would not be winning the seat. So if Greens voters continue to preference such an anti-green ALP member such as Danby I am inclined to think you are talking rot.

    However let us see what the final preference count shows. My own guess is that direct preferences from Greens to Labor will have increased as a share, simply because green leaning liberals had a few more acceptable choices to park their first preference – eg Arts, Cyclists, renewables etc. Previously neither Hemp nor Sex nor Pirates would have attracted this crowd, but Arts and Cyclists and maybe Animal Justice are “noice” and can act as a place for progressive leaning Liberals to register a mild protest. ME too for some and NXT also.

  10. Veteran Labor frontbencher Kim Carr has been dumped from the shadow ministry by his own Left faction and will need an intervention by leader Bill Shorten to save him.

    As the factions jostle ahead of a major overhaul of the shadow ministry, due to be announced Saturday, sources have confirmed that Senator Carr, a former minister and now the shadow minster for higher education, research, innovation and industry, has not been chosen by the Left to be one of the faction’s 14 frontbenchers.

    In Labor, the factions choose who will be on the frontbench and the leader assigns the portfolios. But the leader does have some influence in who the factions choose.

    Read more: http://www.afr.com/news/politics/kim-carr-dumped-from-frontbench-by-faction-20160718-gq8l4w#ixzz4EoJjD6qk
    Follow us: @FinancialReview on Twitter | financialreview on Facebook

  11. “There is nothing irrational at all in hating Islam.”

    Last time I went to Indonesia I didn’t hate Islam at all. Indeed to have done so would have been totally irrational, not to mention stupid.

    Did you hate Catholicism or Protestants during the Irish ‘troubles’?

  12. scott bales @ #954 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 10:27 am

    The ~80% of votes that come to the Greens from Labor voters, and flow back to Labor as preferences are bad, because they are The Greens taking votes from Labor, showing how the Greens are ‘helping the Liberals’

    The 20% of Greens votes that come from Liberal voters, and flow back to the Liberals as preferences are bad, because it shows that if the Greens are attracting 1/5th of their votes from the Liberals, it must be because they are too similar to the Liberals.

    Make up your mind what you want to criticise The Greens for. This having your cake and eating it too is ridiculous.

    I don’t want to speak for briefly (he does a good job speaking for himself) but yes, both are bad – but perhaps for slightly different reasons. The Green’s taking votes from Labor is bad because in one or two seats they do have a chance of beating Labor, so Labor has to waste time and effort to fend them off. And the really annoying part is that Greens put hardly any effort into seats where they could possibly beat the Liberals.

    And the Greens taking votes from the Liberals is bad because it leads disenchanted Libs to believe voting Green is a true protest vote, when the evidence shows it is anything of the sort.

  13. scott bales @ #954 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 10:27 am

    I made no comments about good/bad prefs.

    My observation is that the share of G-prefs going to Labor will have fallen from around 83% in 2013 to something closer to 70% this time. The G PV increased at this election. From my observation of the count, this increase is likely to have come from Lib-positive rather than Labor-positive voters. These extra votes will have flowed back to Liberal candidates as preferences.

    This can be best observed in Lib-leaning booths, where the share of G-prefs flowing to Liberal can be much higher than in Labor-leaning booths. In some booths the flow of G prefs to Lib candidates approaches 1/3.

    The point of all this is that such results are consistent with the G-campaign – a campaign that is hostile to Labor. This campaign repels Labor-positive voters from the Gs. But it also encourages Lib-positive voters to lodge their primaries with G candidates.

    It is perfectly obvious that the Gs can no longer grow their support by appealing to Labor voters. This being the case, growth for the Gs has to come from the currently Liberal-leaning. So they attack Labor and they mute their attacks on the Liberals. The Gs are trying to chip away at the Liberal vote by positioning themselves as alt-Lib.

    In the House elections in 2013 the G PV totalled 1,116,918. To date, this time the G PV is 1,335,728, an increase of about 220,000. When we finally get to see the pref-allocation on a booth-by-booth basis, we will see that nearly all of this increase will have come from Lib-positive voters.

    So the character of G-politics is changing.

  14. @ Briefly – I am aware of your point, but you may have missed mine.

    When a person votes Greens, then Labor, you claim this proves that the Greens campaign against Labor.
    When a person votes Greens, then Liberal, you claim this proves that the Greens campaign against Labor.

    These statements are contradictory. Choose one of them to continue to claim, and never say the other again.

  15. colton @ #956 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 10:34 am

    A phobia is an irrational fear.
    There is nothing irrational at all in hating Islam.

    I dislike religious dogma full stop myself and see atheism as just another form of it, but I respect the rights of people to practice the religion or faith of their choosing. We live in Australia. We are under no threat here from Christian, Islamic or any other religious dogma. We live in a country that has a separation of powers. Just as we have no Christian inquisitors here today rounding up heretics due to a supplanting by the Church of the state, radical Islamic extremists aren’t rounding up infidels either. It is an irrational fear for we live here and not in Islamic State or the Holy Roman Empire. It is an irrational fear because it is irrelevant. It is an irrational fear to fear Sharia Law because our constitution and separation of powers renders it an impossibility. It is an irrational fear because it is irrational, irrelevant, not applicable, impossible.

  16. scott bales @ #968 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 10:59 am

    @ Briefly – I am aware of your point, but you may have missed mine.
    When a person votes Greens, then Labor, you claim this proves that the Greens campaign against Labor.
    When a person votes Greens, then Liberal, you claim this proves that the Greens campaign against Labor.
    These statements are contradictory. Choose one of them to continue to claim, and never say the other again.

    They are not necessarily contradictory. See my post at 963. Even if you disagree with the reasoning, you must see that it is possible for both to be true (albeit for slightly different reasons).

  17. Briefly

    Are you a noggin? You do of course realise that those green votes in Liberal booths are in fact Liberals who have voted green and would not, could not ever vote Labor. They are not lost Labor votes but lost Liberal votes. It is to labor’s huge advantage that this happens.

    However I really think you will be shown to be talking total rubbish this election, however I will wait until the AEC gives us data before I will make any assumptions.

  18. Thanks to Barney and Victoria.
    I too asked that question re Herbert yesterday.
    Fingers and toes crossed with the recount. I hope that that SC George Brandis SC can keep his blockhead out of the recount.

  19. Greens, blah, blah, blah, ALP blah, blah, blah.

    Who gives a flying fark except for a few obsessives who need to get a room. Please.
    Any room will do, but preferably padded.

  20. scott bales @ #968 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 10:59 am

    @ Briefly – I am aware of your point, but you may have missed mine.
    When a person votes Greens, then Labor, you claim this proves that the Greens campaign against Labor.
    When a person votes Greens, then Liberal, you claim this proves that the Greens campaign against Labor.
    These statements are contradictory. Choose one of them to continue to claim, and never say the other again.

    I don’t make either of these claims.

    The G campaign speaks for itself.

  21. Is the rise in Islamophobia the fault of Abbott?
    Or the fault of Rudd, who in his narcissism and weakness allowed for the rise of Abbott?
    Or John Howard, with his cynical manipulation of the Tampa, and sycophancy to Bush and the US alliance, blowing up the Middle East and spawning terrorism?

    Partially, all of the above, but we really do need to face the fact that there is a small, but determined element of Muslims in Australia who misguidedly or otherwise believe that it is their duty to take out infidels by any means available.

    I’ve been waiting for years fo these crackpots to realize that training pilots and hijacking large aircraft, starting wars in which actual pitched battles are fought, and organizing elaborate financial and organizational bureaucracies is a mug’s game. All you need is a crazy with a truck, a hatchet or a gun to spread not only merry mayhem in their democratic targets, but also terror and fear.

    Just yell “God is great!” as you turn and stab the person next to you, and you can bring an entire country to its knees. If you get shot by the cops that’s even more convincing that no-one can stop you doing the act if you’re really determined to do it. Pauline Hanson has a point: people ARE scared.

    Whether they are rationally scared, or whether her solutions to them being scared are the answer, is the argument we should be having.

    Our Constitution stipulates that:

    “s116. The Commonwealth shall not make any law for establishing any religion, or for imposing any religious observance, or for prohibiting the free exercise of any religion, and no religious test shall be required as a qualification for any office or public trust under the Commonwealth.”

    So there can be no overt religious test on immigration. We have to solve the problem here. Blaming George Bush doesn’t cut it. People, well-founded or otherwise, are scared. It’s up to our political leaders to dignify the debate.

  22. Bushfire

    People, well-founded or otherwise, are scared. It’s up to our political leaders to dignify the debate.

    But it is our political leaders who are fostering fear. All politicians of all persuasions do it (but not necessarily to the same extent, or on the same subjects). Fear is a basic tool of statecraft, which can only be countered by educating the electorate.

    However, it is fair to point out that only one side of politics is systematically dismantling our education system at all levels.

  23. Briefly

    For someone who tries to appear erudite, you seem to have little real grasp of people or politics.

    It is obvious that there is an increasing trend towards minor parties, generally as a protest vote against the big parties and also for many as a fundamental statment of political philosophy.

    Now it is fairly obvious that the Greens by and large are a middle class party. Their ideals are those of the educated middle classes, well read professionals with leisure to spare contemplating abstract issues of human rights, sustainability or protection biodiversity. Naturally they will resonate most in better off areas. So this will be inner city and upper class suburban areas. They will be strongest in areas where there are high numbers of upper income but still employed professionals, not so much in areas where there is a strong element of the “capitalist” business classes, although in these areas they will still be increasingly attractive relative to the ALP.

    However there is also an even larger “protest vote” in labor strong holds and in mortgage belt territory of swinger land. This vote is going to One nation, various RWNJ parties or populists. it is larger than the loss to the greens and much more dangerous.

    It seems clear to me briefly that you are happier with ALP votes going to One nation, Family First or ALA than to the Greens. This speaks volumes about you philosophy and mind set.

  24. Thanks for the ignorant and hate-filled rant Colton. I hadn’t pegged you as a racist ignoramus, so at least I learned one thing from your bout of verbal diarrhoea.
    That’s one more PB poster I can ignore.

  25. Daretotread

    It seems clear to me briefly that you are happier with ALP votes going to One nation, Family First or ALA than to the Greens. This speaks volumes about you philosophy and mind set.

    I seem to recall you made the same comment about me a few days ago. It demeans you that you repeatedly resort to such nonsense in place of rational argument.

  26. The proof is in the figgy pudding. No-one is on trial. The G’s who’ve done it know. We know. If they are going to stop, they will. If they are not then life will go on with flying figs polluting the airwaves from time to time which will annoy persons like Adrian, who’ve not a fig to give on the matter. Hahahaha Anyway, I’m outta here. It’s a beautiful day here today. May you all have a great one!

  27. daretotread @ #971 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 11:05 am

    Briefly
    Are you a noggin? You do of course realise that those green votes in Liberal booths are in fact Liberals who have voted green and would not, could not ever vote Labor. They are not lost Labor votes but lost Liberal votes. It is to labor’s huge advantage that this happens.
    However I really think you will be shown to be talking total rubbish this election, however I will wait until the AEC gives us data before I will make any assumptions.

    I’m not saying anything at all about whether the cycling of Lib-leaning votes through the Gs and back to the Libs is good or bad for Labor. I’m just making the point that the share of G prefs going to Labor will have declined even if the absolute number of G prefs going to Labor does not fall. This would validate the proposition that the increase in the G PV at this election came from Lib-leaning voters. It will be very interesting to see the final booth-by-booth results to test this proposition. This is what we should expect to happen, all things taken into account.

  28. Colton @ 10.34

    Islamophobia is a stupid term.

    Sadly, as shown on Q&A last night, it is not. Whatever it’s origins, the simple meaning of indiscriminate fear of Muslims is quite accurate. In the same way that arachnophobes like myself have an instinctive fear of spiders, whether patently harmless or patently deadly, there are people out there who fear Muslims in our country, whether they are slobbering at the mouth psychopaths or kindly nation-builders.

    And if you are a kindly, constructive nation-building Muslim, it is terrible not knowing whether any person you meet or see is going to spout vile ignorant hatred at you or even get violent. You have to actually be one of the group to know how depressing, fearful and utterly destructive broad brushed hatred of any group of people is.

    However, the really bad thing about Islamophobia, compared to most other irrational phobias applied to groups of people, is that acting it out feeds the objectives of the very small group of psychopaths who are exporting their brand of terrorist violence around the world. The Pauline Hansons and Sonia Krugers of the world are not protecting their children by expressing Islamophobic sentiments, they are putting them at risk of even greater danger, both at home and abroad, as their attitudes encourage Muslims to go to the dark side as they are feared and distrusted whatever they do.

    Put another way, there are always a number of people who, when they are treated constantly as criminals, find that the only way open to them is to become the criminals they are accused of being.

    For my part, the only way to defeat terrorism is to not be terrified by the perpetrators. We need to continue to fill public spaces and go about our daily lives normally. The whole aim of terrorism is to impart fear and loathing out of all proportion in size and effort to the act of terror itself. Like an earthquake that can inflict destructive shockwaves and tsunamis far beyond the epicentre, terrorism creates the most damage not by the act but by the waves of fear it generates.

  29. Coffee and a few cartoons time! : )

    First up we have Mark Knight and Joe Biden looking for the cure for a type of US Cancer:
    http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/21cb3db208ca50e440b8495d17eb136c?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5

    David Rowe is on well-deserved leave. Nicholson is filling in.
    However I couldn’t resist this classic Rowe in light of the DelCons failure to gain a leg-up in the Turnbull Ministry:

    Here’s a Nicholson from yesterday(today’s isn’t up on his website yet), with a familiar face:
    http://nicholsoncartoons.com.au/2016-07-18-trump-free-trade-sux-hockey-australian-financial-review-cartoon.html

    It must be old home week! Here’s Kudelka bringing back another familiar face:

    A very dark cartoon from Cathy Wilcox. Literally.
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/federal-politics/cartoons/cathy-wilcox-20090909-fhd6.html

    Wow! David Pope was hard to come by. I had to send myself an email with the enclosed link to the cartoon. The Canberra Times site wouldn’t let me just copy and paste the link! Anyway, here it is, it’s from a couple of days ago, so I’m assuming Pope is on leave as well:
    http://www.smh.com.au/photogallery/act-news/david-pope-20120214-1t3j0.html

    Here’s another from Cathy Wilcox. God’s not having a good day:

    Mark David shaking a tin can for Health:

    Finally, a couple from Glen Le Lievre:
    Don’t ‘Gotta Catch ’em All!:

    Vitruvian Mal:

    Enjoy!

  30. psyclaw @ #902 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 8:34 am

    I saw a USA researcher being interviewed on Sunday, talking about the rise of RWNJ parties all over the globe.
    I only caught part of the interview, unfortunately not including his name, but he appeared to be very measured and sensible.
    In the bit I caught, he made the point that no-one at this stage knows why this has occurred, but he said that certain trends are appearing in research. The first mentioned in each category are less likely to support the RWNJs:
    Educated v Un-educated
    Coastal Dwellers v Inland Dwellers (interesting)
    Digital Era Participants v Non-participants

    That last one might help explain why the LNP are so keen on keeping Australia a digital backwater.

  31. jeffemu @ #972 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 11:06 am

    Thanks to Barney and Victoria.
    I too asked that question re Herbert yesterday.
    Fingers and toes crossed with the recount. I hope that that SC George Brandis SC can keep his blockhead out of the recount.

    I’m hoping he sticks it in myself. So far everything he has touched has turned to pure crap for his party.

  32. William – are you able to produce a graph like in the intro ones correlating negative gearing propensity of voters by electorate. I recall some figures earlier which showed a big skew to the sort of suburbs which stuck with LNP. But it seems it is also perhaps part of an explanation in an area like Capricornia where mine workers may have similar investments. Whether the data can sort out negative gearing in another electorate is also interesting.

  33. just me @ #985 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 11:32 am

    Educated v Un-educated
    Coastal Dwellers v Inland Dwellers (interesting)
    Digital Era Participants v Non-participants

    That last one might help explain why the LNP are so keen on keeping Australia a digital backwater.

    And the first one explains why the LNP systematically reduce our education standards, and the second one explains why the Liberals are in coalition with the Nationals and not the Greens.

  34. daretotread @ #978 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 11:18 am

    Briefly….It seems clear to me briefly that you are happier with ALP votes going to One nation, Family First or ALA than to the Greens. This speaks volumes about you philosophy and mind set.

    This is a completely irrational claim. Here you make the insinuation that I’m racist or bigoted in some other way. You have made such claims quite overtly in the past. They are completely false and they do you no credit at all. I have refuted them many times yet you persist in making them. If you knew the first thing about me – which you do not – you would see your claims for the absurdities they are.

    While you are very free with the deprecations in general, your use of them says a lot more about you than it does about those – and they are very many – against whom you direct your malice.

    Even so, it’s hard to get worked up about this….

  35. Some good news for ALP reform – Unaligned senator Lisa Singh has a very good chance of being re-elected.


    A “Re-Elect Lisa Group” made up of ALP members did so well that she appears to have also taken significant votes from the Greens in the Denison and Franklin areas.

    Senator Singh, a former state MP, said she was determined to provide an option for Labor voters who want to back a true progressive in the Senate.

    “I believe I gave Labor the best chance of winning the most seats possible by providing that alternative,” she said.

    Tasmanians are much more likely to go below the line and choose candidates directly due to the use of the Hare-Clark voting system at state level there.

  36. phoenixred @ #937 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 9:40 am

    Former Victorian Liberal state director Damien Mantach has been jailed for almost three years for stealing more than $1.5 million from his party.
    Mantach pleaded guilty to 15 charges of dishonestly obtaining a financial advantage after it was discovered he had diverted $1,558,913 from Liberal party coffers using fake invoices.
    Mantach was on Tuesday sentenced to five years in jail, with a non-parole period of two years and eight months, by Victorian County Court judge Liz Gaynor.
    Read more at http://www.9news.com.au/national/2016/07/19/03/34/vic-liberal-to-be-punished-over-theft#qqJ4DiwiIQR3wZKK.99

    So lets do the sums.
    According to the report I heard on the radio, he will probably only be inside for 2 years.
    $1.5M stolen and only about 1/3 recovered.
    So $1M apparently unrecoverable and has benefited Mantach and / or his family.

    $1M return on 2 years in low security with free board and probably a cushy job is not bad.

  37. tpof @ #983 Tuesday, July 19, 2016 at 11:28 am

    Absolutely right.

    The fact of the matter is that voices such as Hanson are part of the PR machine of IS. She and those who are animated in the same way are publicity weapons for terror. IS wants to inspire fear and to provoke attacks on Islam. In igniting these feelings, whether she wishes it or not, Hanson has become an accomplice of IS.

  38. Thanks for the cartoons C@tmomma! Emailing Fairfax to yourself is a good idea. I get the impression that Fairfax may be thinking about tightening up their paywall.

    It’s a pity they do no just go back to quality journalism. I would subscribe in a flash. Instead I will probably keep giving independent media a run. In particular I need to throw a few dollars Michael West’s way. He was such a fantastic business investigative journalist, until Fairfax told him that “He no longer meets their business model”.

    I really want to see him stay working.

  39. Hi Wakefield – I live in the electorate of Capricornia. Unfortunately we fell short in the count. But what I can say for sure is that the Nats Landry (or Laundry as we have come to know her) had some unbelievably big campaigning funds behind her. I would love to know where the money came from. Rumour here has it that she had some big backing from Mining Companies.

  40. D&M

    Yes Lisa Singh has shown ALP people what can be done. Mind you if i were a green i might be whinging about someone straling my votes.

    But hey it is the best news story for Labor in a long time. She has polled nearly half a quota. Labor apparachiks need to note – voters do notice – eg Singh and Bullock- when factional double dealing deals out unfair hands.

  41. Hopefully, Labor will apply the “Abbott Rules” when it comes to pairing, etc etc. But can someone tell me: were there any exceptions made?

  42. I don’t have Catholicophobia.
    I have a rational fear that Catholics are out to stop me from euthanasia, are out to stop people from engaging in SSM and are out to stop women controlling their bodies.
    If the Catholics were not trying to inflict their nasties on me, I would have an unfounded and irrational fear of them and THAT would be Catholicophobia.
    Islamophobia a fear about something that is either not true or disproportionately untrue.
    At its heart the phobia must be irrational.
    We are more likely to be killed by a family member than by a terrorist.
    Islamophobia is an irrational fear that all muslims combined are more likely to kill you than are your family members.
    Some people have combined the irrationality of racism with their sectarian hatred of muslims.
    Some of these have also managed to conflate Islam as an ideology.
    So they get a triple whammy of irrationality: a disproportionate fear of a religion, race hate and conceptual confusion about the difference between race and religion.
    Confronted by Indonesia an example that cut across ALL three, Hanson simply looked confused for a moment and then retreated to her phobic mantras.
    Confronted by Australia not being a Christian country but a diverse country, Hanson simply looked confused for a moment and then retreated to her phobic mantras.
    Confronted by Indonesia being an exemplar where her phobia, her racism and her confusion about the difference between religion and politics were contradicted in practice, Hanson simply looked confused for a moment and retreated to her phobic mantras.
    Phobias, racism and simplisms about religion/ideology are, by their nature, irrational.
    Confronted with the ultimate opportunity to meet her phobia head on… a perfectly safe lunch with a muslim family… she clutched at the meaning of ‘haram’ like a drowing woman a straw.
    Then there is the manipulative element.
    Dastyari nailed this last night. Hanson has moved her hate campaigns from Indigenous people through Asians to Muslims. There is only one certainty in Hanson’s trajectory: in ten years time it will be some other hate object.
    Hanson does not need evidence, logic or rational discourse.
    She does not want them.
    Hanson needs treatment.

  43. Briefly

    I simply call you out on facts. If the cap fits then wear it. What I said was that you were happier with One Nation taking votes from Labor than you are about the Greens doing so. This is a statement of the obvious. It does not imply that you are racist, merely a person that so hates greens rationality is suspended.

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