My seat-by-seat election guide is finally up, but I’m afraid at this stage that it’s a vanilla version without the embeddled tables and booth results mapping, which I will hopefully be able to add later. Meanwhile, the Fairfax papers have kept the polling mill turning with seven ReachTEL marginal seat polls. These are related in the following situation report, along with a further result for GetUp! which I don’t believe has been published anywhere else, and The Weekend Australian’s accounting of how party insiders are reading the breeze. While indications are patchy overall, by no reading is it easy to see where the Coalition might lose the 15 seats (or 13 going off post-redistribution accounting) – unless the Nick Xenophon Team achieves something extraordinary in South Australia, which certainly can’t be ruled out.
New South Wales
Fairfax’s ReachTEL polls record next to no swing in Lindsay, which the Liberals hold with a margin of 3.0%, or Dobell, a Liberal-held seat with a notional Labor margin of 0.2% after the redistribution. The respective results are 54-46 in favour of the Liberals and 51-49 in favour of Labor. The Weekend Australian reported yesterday that Labor was hopeful about Dobell, but doubtful about neighbouring Robertson. The report also related diminishing expectations for Labor in Sydney, to the extent that resources were being put into three seats it already holds: Parramatta (margin 1.7%), Greenway (2.8%) and even Werriwa (5.9%). Sources from both parties were cited saying the Liberals were expected to retain Reid, Lindsay and Banks, and Labor was even said to be “far from certain about taking the seat of Barton”, which has a notional 5.2% margin in Labor’s favour after the redistribution. Despite all that, Labor was said to remain hopeful about Macarthur on the city’s south-western fringe, where the post-redistribution Liberal margin is 3.3%, and Eden-Monaro, where it is 2.6%.
Victoria
Fairfax’s ReachTEL polls find the Liberals leading 52-48 in Deakin, which they hold with a margin of 3.2%, and 51-49 in Corangamite, which compares unfavourably with a 54-46 result in ReachTEL’s poll for the Seven Network a fortnight ago. The Weekend Australian suggests Labor is more confident about Dunkley than other Victorian marginals, with Corangamite recognised as being extremely difficult. The Country Fire Authority issue is cited as problematic in McEwen, which Rob Mitchell narrowly retained for Labor in 2013, despite the travails of Liberal candidate Chris Jermyn. The Greens are “increasingly confident” about Batman.
Brisbane
ReachTEL finds the Liberals leading 56-44 in Bonner, which they hold with a margin of 3.7%, adding to the impression that voters in inner Brisbane are responding well to Malcolm Turnbull. The Australian went so far as to report yesterday that Griffith, where Terri Butler succeeded Griffith at a February 2014 by-election, was “said to be in play”. It appears to be a different story on the city’s northern fringe, with Labor said to be genuinely hopeful in Dickson, which they last held before Peter Dutton unseated Cheryl Kernot in 2001, and Longman, which they gained in 2007 then lost to Wyatt Roy in 2010.
Regional Queensland
A ReachTEL poll conducted for GetUp! on Tuesday showed Nationals member George Christensen under pressure in the northern Queensland seat of Dawson, which he holds on a margin of 7.6%. The survey of 631 respondents found Christensen tied with Labor candidate Frank Gilbert on two-party preferred, from primary votes of 43.7% for Christensen (46.2% in 2013), 34.7% for Gilbert (29.7% for the Labor candidate in 2013) and 9.1% for the Greens (5.0%). However, Christensen would hold a 53-47 lead if preference flows from 2013 were applied. Labor is also said by The Australian to be “increasingly confident” about the Townsville seat of Herbert. Conversely, Labor is said to be struggling in Capricornia, which it usually holds, contrary to the impression that Labor is performing better in the regions than the city. The report suggests that the regional economic downturn has not been of advantage to Labor in the mining-intensive seats of Dawson, Capricornia and Flynn, because many blue-collar workers have left the electorate with the end of the boom.
Western Australia
Wildly mixed signals continue to come through, as ReachTEL’s polling for the Fairfax papers finds a 50-50 result in the northern suburbs seat of Cowan, where the Liberal margin is 4.5%. While this is at odds with the state polling aggregation produced by BludgerTrack, it accords with an account in The Australian yesterday of the Coalition being “more confident of holding all its seats in Western Australia and taking the new seat of Burt”. A report from Fleur Anderson of the Financial Review on Thursday gave credence to both views, with Labor said to be expecting four gains in the House (presumably Cowan, Hasluck, Swan and Burt) on top of two in the Senate, while Liberal sources indicated they were by no means giving anything away.
South Australia
ReachTEL provides a further indication that Rebekha Sharkie of the Nick Xenophon Team is likely to unseat Liberal member Jamie Briggs in Mayo. The poll has Briggs on 37.6% with Sharkie on 24.4%, a gap she would surely close with preferences from Labor (19.5%) and the Greens (10.4%). On Friday, the Financial Review cites unidentified Liberals, variously designated “worried” and “senior”, saying Jamie Briggs has abandoned hope of defending Mayo from Rebekha Sharkie of the Nick Xenophon Team. Briggs himself says this is “scurrilous gossip” and “completely untrue”.
Elsewhere, The Australian reports that Labor remains confident in the Darwin seat of Solomon, while Lyons “remains the Coalition’s most difficult seat” in Tasmania.
The other big campaign news of the past few days has been the closure of candidate nominations, revealing that 994 candidates have nominated for the 150 House of Representatives electorates, the second lowest number since 1998 (the first being 2010, when the somewhat early election announcement appeared to catch some unprepared). Despite Senate electoral reform, a record number of candidates have nominated, although ballot papers will tend to be slightly smaller as there will be many more ungrouped candidates this time, who do not have their own column on the ballot paper. This has been encouraged by the fact that below-the-line voting has now much easier than it was before, although ungrouped candidates will no doubt remain as marginal a factor as before. South Australia has substantially fewer groups on the ballot paper than last time (24 compared with 34), but Queensland is actually up slightly, from 36 to 40. The biggest winner out of the Senate ballot paper draw would appear to be Derryn Hinch, who has been given a tremendous boost in his bid for a Senate by drawing first out of 39 columns on the Victorian ballot paper.
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Mark Kenny analyses the polls and says that Labor will come up short on key marginals.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/labor-behind-in-key-seats-needed-to-win-20160610-gpgcx4.html
Turnbull in his usual comfortable surroundings gets gatecrashed by some money wielding children
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/election-2016-youngsters-try-to-gatecrash-justin-hemmes-liberal-fundraiser-20160611-gph5es.html
NSW elective surgery waiting lists have grown to disturbing proportions.
http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/elderly-in-pain-as-nsw-elective-surgery-waiting-list-hits-record-numbers-20160611-gpgzav.html
Trump’s class rises to the surface again as Elizabeth Warren gets under his skin.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/donald-trump-apologises-for-pocahontas-remark–to-pocahontas-20160611-gph5u6.html
The very look of this Liberal candidate should be enough to turn voters off but he has done much more than that to be offensive.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/liberal-candidate-chris-jermyns-missing-millions-after-social-media-flop-20160610-gpg2rl.html
Shorten’s health policy is coming out piece by piece.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016/bill-shorten-promises-2b-extra-for-hospitals-but-silent-on-other-50b-20160611-gpgz75.html
Adam Gartrell wonders if the real Malcolm Turnbull will ever stand up.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/federal-election-2016-opinion/malcolm-the-marxist-will-the-real-turnbull-ever-stand-up-20160610-gpg6qu.html
Drug dealers in Victoria are one step ahead of police investigations. Google.
/news/opinion/andrew-rule/drug-dealers-manage-to-be-one-step-ahead-of-police-investigations/news-story/6f47d5004d30ff22c3b7cbf75ff86b06
Nuanced racism within the AFL playing stock is losing indigenous and non-Anglo-Australian players.
http://www.theage.com.au/afl/afl-news/racism-report-afl-clubs-losing-indigenous-players-because-of-footballers-views-20160611-gpgzlq.html
The rise of the sex robots.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/10/feminism-sex-robots-women-technology-objectify
Here come the Crows! (Sorry for being a bit parochial!)
http://www.adelaidenow.com.au/sport/afl/teams/adelaide/afl-2016-adelaide-crows-come-from-behind-to-beat-west-coast-by-29-points-at-subiaco-oval/news-story/41fc1204f40f383306830f9133f0ee41
Section 2 . . . with Cartoon Corner
David Letterman nicely sums up Trump as being despicable and repugnant. Fair enough!
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/entry/david-letterman-slams-despicable-donald-trump-says-hes-repugnant-to-people_us_575ac450e4b00f97fba80581?section=australia
And Mitt Romney says a Trump victory would end in “trickle down racism.”
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2016/06/10/mitt-romney-a-trump-presidency-would-spawn-trickle-down-racism/
Telstra is really travelling well!
http://thenewdaily.com.au/life/2016/06/11/telstra-internet-outage/
Pat Campbell contrasts climate change responses.
Mark Knight with a fireman beefcake calendar.
http://cdn.newsapi.com.au/image/v1/18dd1492f92154e1eb7cea83ead09ab6?width=1024&api_key=zw4msefggf9wdvqswdfuqnr5
BK
Good morning. Glad to see you’re still on deck, computer-wise. 🙂
lizzie
It came good around 2pm yesterday and has stayed up at good speeds.
BK
What an uncertain world we live in. Ruled by little black boxes and incompetent pollies.
Rather silly article by Mark Kenny today, which seems to suggest that Labor’s failure to win in 1998 was a result of a “flawed strategy” of aiming to win back government over two terms.
Very harsh! The Labor campaign in the 1998 election was excellent. And the two term strategy looked ok until Tampa and 9/11 happened along.
Anyway, to me, this election doesn’t feel quite as close as 1998, but we’ll see about that.
Mark Kenny suggests Labor could win the two party preferred vote but lose the election like in 1998. I’m not so sure, Kim Beazley had a Labor primary vote of 40.10%. And while some of you will say that the minor parties vote has increased since that election, I still think Labor’s primary vote hasn’t looked anything close to matching that.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/labors-recurring-nightmare-is-haunting-bill-shorten-20160610-gpg7ht.html
-2.3C in Cbr. And lots of frost.
“Rather silly article by Mark Kenny today, which seems to suggest that Labor’s failure to win in 1998 was a result of a “flawed strategy” of aiming to win back government over two terms.
Very harsh! The Labor campaign in the 1998 election was excellent. And the two term strategy looked ok until Tampa and 9/11 happened along.
Anyway, to me, this election doesn’t feel quite as close as 1998, but we’ll see about that.”
There were five seats in Queensland that election that the Liberals held with margin less then 1.5%. Mal Brough was one of them holding on with .98% of the vote. Paul Keating was very critical of Gary Grey handling of running that election.
“I used to call Gary Mr Two Step. He was always going to win in two steps. I said to Kim, you will win in ‘the eight Kim, a Labor leader’s election on the first one is always the best one, but you got to look like you want the job and you’ve got to get that lazy Federal organisation to get out there and help you. He would have won. He got 52 per cent of the vote and lost. The reason was Gray ‘s Federal office.”
Love the election guide though I got a fright looking at Joyce given a 20% lead then I saw that was 2PP v Labor cf the 2013 result of only [lol] 14.4 over the Independent Taber. If Labor can’t win seeing the back of Joyce in NEW ENGLAND and Briggs in MAY0 would be some consolation.
SKY NEWS REPORTS MALCOLM TURNBULL IS GO TO ANNOUNCE THAT THEY WILL PREFERENCE LABOR OVER THE GREENS IN EVERY LOWER HOUSE SEAT IN THE COUNTRY — Feeney owes Talkbull a beer !1
David: that’s the Paul Keating who lost the plot after the 1993 election and campaigner like a zombie in 1996, losing an election while in charge of a rapidly recovering economy.
Don’t get me wrong, I’m a big fan of PJK. But that comment is a bit rich.
David Peterson. Oh no! Don’t tell me that the Liberal-Green conspiracy is dead! What on earth are the PB posters going to find to talk about!
meher baba
Sunday, June 12, 2016 at 7:14 am
David Peterson. Oh no! Don’t tell me that the Liberal-Green conspiracy is dead! What on earth are the PB posters going to find to talk about!
—
Di Natalie of course and his foolishness in trying to wipe out Indy’s by supporting the Fibs Senate election changes –that turned out well after MT went DD and invited people like Handjobs Hanson back to the table
You need to read William Bowe, Kevin Bonham, and Antony Green, and recognize how foolish you are being.
Most Viewed :
1. Fat smokers win in PM’s health fix
ARTICLE : Federal election 2016: Health reforms to force insurers to send single bill
PRIVATE health insurers will be forced to offer patients a single bill listing all out-of-pocket charges to avoid bill shock under government reforms to rank cover as gold, silver and bronze.
Health Minister Sussan Ley will announce the changes today also confirming that plans to charge smokers and the overweight more for health insurance have been shelved.
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/federal-election/federal-election-2016-health-reforms-to-force-insurers-to-send-single-bill/news-story/bb9e94d1a4500b5d611f7defdd912212
Nicholas: show some compassion. It looks like the greens-bashers won’t be able to blame them for the Libs winning. So let them cling to their shred of hope that, if Pauline wins a Senate seat, that will somehow all be the fault of the Greens!
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2016/jun/08/government-could-use-little-known-power-to-stop-shenhua-mine-says-expert?CMP=share_btn_tw
Nicholas
Sunday, June 12, 2016 at 7:42 am
Di Natalie of course and his foolishness in trying to wipe out Indy’s by supporting the Fibs Senate election changes
You need to read William Bowe, Kevin Bonham, and Antony Green, and recognize how foolish you are being–
—–
I’m not saying I believe this assertion – I was responding to another posters question about what the Green haters in PB would go to now the Liberal -Green preference conspiracy claims have proven to be false.
Long term I agree the Greens will benefit but not till the 2021 election in real terms.
I’ll wait for the announcement, but I doubt that insurers or even the Government can force all the doctors (including radiologists, pathologists, anaesthetists, etc) to cooperate in sending a single bill or estimate of our of pocket costs. The Constitution won’t allow for any compulsion to be applied to doctors re their fees.
David Peterson: my apologies. Your sarcasm was so subterranean to have eluded my antennae.
I think Mark Kenny article must be referring to this reachtel poll information. I’m not sure why this has been left out and the focus has been solely on the seat of Bonner. Because seats have to fall to Labor if their vote improves by 5% in Queensland.
“As Reachtel polls in the battleground states of NSW and Queensland predicted big swings to Labor that could deliver a swag of seats to the ALP, Mr Turnbull will move to quash suggestions of a secret Greens-Liberal preference deal.
The new poll suggests Labor’s support is 50:50 in NSW — a result that would still deliver up to 11 seats to Labor — and 51:49 in Queensland, a result that would also deliver up to six seats. Labor needs 21 seats to form government in its own right.”
http://www.dailytelegraph.com.au/news/national/federal-election/federal-election-2016-prime-minister-flags-intention-to-put-greens-last/news-story/aec7153f15dcb28f124bb0c05888f1b8#load-story-comments
CTaR1
Heavy frost this side of Black Mountain as well… up onto the roof.
Does Turnbull’s preferencing Labor over the Greens everywhere free up Labor from sandbagging Batman, Wills, Melbourne Ports (VIC), Richmond, Grayndler, Sydney (NSW) and Freemantle [though Batman was the only one really at risk ] so they can focus the last three weeks going after LIB seats ? Thoughts from might enlighten this ignoramus would be appreciated.
Me being the ignoramus in question – I don’t know much about this stuff.
DAVID – Dunno what Samantha Maiden is talking about. Is she smoking something. What poll is she talking about.
About Mark Kenny’s article, I note that I know a lot less about polls than most here, but:
1. Kenny is one of Malcolm’s useful idiots;
2. Reachtel seems to be the worst poll for Labor;
3. We are only getting a snapshot of a snapshot (why?);
4. Seat polling is usually lousy;
5. Mark Kenny is a dope.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-11/farage-threatens-destroy-old-eu-marc-faber-says-brexit-best-thing-british-history
Effin Greens Effin Labor Government in the ACT.
New charges and higher than inflation charges on everything in sight. We now have a $30 domestic violence fee! Fire and emergency services fee now $252. Rego etc, etc, etc, up to suit.
The average rates in the ACT have gone up a compound 9.5% over five years.
Our personal rates have increased at 10% or higher, compound, over those five years.
For the election year the smartarses have announced a reduction to 4.7% but have promised to double the rates the year after the election.
ACT debt balloons.
The mother of all sweetheart deals on pay and conditions for The Great White Light Rail Elephant unionists. Guaranteed payments to the operators until the cows come home. Ratepayers fucked coming and going.
All sorts of opaque deals with developers.
Weird money wasters like the instant slum container complex on prime LBG foreshore land. This idiot idea was such an instant visual slum dud that they decided to put good money after bad by engaging ‘revitalization’ consultants.
Endangered species like the Little Eagle are disappearing under the bungalow wave.
FMD.
My baseball bat is a-quivering.
Congratulations to Crosby/Textors little darling Jobson Growth who is doing a humongous effort in sandbagging.
“Does Turnbull’s preferencing Labor over the Greens everywhere free up Labor from sandbagging Batman, Wills, Melbourne Ports (VIC), Richmond, Grayndler, Sydney (NSW) and Freemantle [though Batman was the only one really at risk ] so they can focus the last three weeks going after LIB seats ? Thoughts from might enlighten this ignoramus would be appreciated.”
Probably. Unless the polling shows the Greens primary vote is so high in Batman that it can withstand preferences like Adam Bandt did in seat of Melbourne in the 2013 election. But I can’t imagine that is the case.
Also Pre-poll opens on Tuesday forcing major parties to reveal their preferences. Liberals were forced to let the cat out of the bag instead of continuing to use the preference threat against Labor.
“Heavy frost this side of Black Mountain as well… up onto the roof.” – cant say I miss that much. 13 deg outside ATM, but there was a very light frost here May 30th
meher baba
Sunday, June 12, 2016 at 8:00 am
David Peterson: my apologies. Your sarcasm was so subterranean to have eluded my antennae.
—
No worries – so you know my flag I support the presence of the Greens, NXT and Indy’s in both houses. I live in Andrew Wilkie’s seat and he will get my vote again. On 2PP I will always trust Labor to give a damn about the underclass –
Dave
The EU does not allow for bilateral agreements between any one of its member states and outside states.
Britain would certainly be freer to make bilateral deals with non-EU states. But it would do so without the EU economic clout.
I have not seen any references to it but I imagine the real killer in relation to Brexit would be the conflict between the City and Frankfurt over who gets to run the money.
I imagine that the Germans, who have both done very well out of the EU and who have pumped plenty back into the EU, would go to remarkable lengths to ensure that, post Brexit, Frankfurt would eventually wins over the City.
Britain’s farming industries would be the major immediate casualties, I imagine – unless the Gubbies redirect current EU subsidies to their own farmers.
In relation to the refugee swarms, my view is that if Europe handles it well, they have a humungous economic advantage in terms of a rejuvenation of their demographic profiles.
Should Brexit occur Britain’s age profile would presumably follow that of Japan.
OTOH, my view is that Brexit would be good for Australia. Any destruction of huge trade blocs has got to be a good thing…
“We now have a $30 domestic violence fee! Fire and emergency services fee now ” on home insurance?
Good morning all,
Reach tell polling in the Sunday Mail this morning has the 2PP vote in Queensland at 51/49 to the coalition. The polling was commissioned by Getup.
So, which Reachtel polling to believe?
The article in the Sunday Mail also has 2PP polling at 50/50 in NSW.
Once again who to believe?
Reachtel polling by Fairfax and Getup seem to be telling slightly different stories.
Should one be taken as ” more accurate ” than the other ? If so, which and why.
To my untrained eye, Australia may well be still up for grabs.
We shall see.
Cheers.
David,
Just saw your post above re the same polling I mentioned.
You beat me to it.
Sorry to all for ” double dipping”
Cheers.
DOYLEY – Thanks – that’s fascinating. I also sense that Reachtel is the worst poll for labor!
Keyman
I don’t know. Home insurance is not compulsory unless forced by the banks as part of the mortgage.
David
Sunday, June 12, 2016 at 8:25 am
Probably.
Also Pre-poll opens on Tuesday forcing major parties to reveal their preferences. Liberals were forced to let the cat out of the bag instead of continuing to use the preference threat against Labor. L
–
Thank you — Now I wonder what NXT will re preferences after conflicting reports of him going ‘open ticket’ OR making seat specific deals with Labor in SA.
I’m equally happy to predict that, if Pauline Hansen wins, some Green supporters here will find a way to blame it on the Labor party.
The individual seat polling above demonstrates some of the usual mysteries of polling, as it’s largely out of step with national polls.
Our options are:
* the national polls are wrong;
* the individual seat polling is wrong;
* both are correct, and the swings are happening in seats which aren’t being polled.
“David,
Just saw your post above re the same polling I mentioned.
You beat me to it.
Sorry to all for ” double dipping”
Cheers.”
All Good Doyley. 🙂
…when looking at individual seat polling, I’m always reminded of the election where the entire Labor cabinet went and doorknocked a seat based on it…a seat subsequently won by a bigger margin than enthusiastic doorknocking could really account for, particularly as its neighbouring seats swung the same way.
That was also an election where pollsters and others predicted it would go down to the wire, but Labor picked up seats which weren’t on the radar.
Morning bludgers
Sky News Australia
56m56 minutes ago
Sky News Australia @SkyNewsAust
Bob Hawke in his first ad since he was PM, urges voters to back Labor to protect Medicare. #ausvotes http://snpy.tv/1XOw3TC
“Keyman
I don’t know. Home insurance is not compulsory unless forced by the banks as part of the mortgage.” – the emergency services levy is usually levied on your building/home insurance and the domestic violence levy is likely jammed on top of that. Bloody Baird will likely follow suit in NSW – I had a gristle here during the week about Baird jamming a credit card fee on Rego’s will obfuscating the BPay details. My guess he’s applied the credit card fee on all service nsw transactions.
will=while
It is not all that complicated.
The 2PP polling pattern is clear: Labor would lose an election. The marginal seat polling is clear, as a pattern, Labor would lose an election on these numbers.
Labor might still win the election but it would take some sort of major national 2PP game changer.
Labor might still win the election but it would have to change patterns of results marginal by marginal.
ATM the reasonable analysis is that Turnbull will have a narrow but workable majority in the House and an unpredictable Dog’s Breakfast in the Senate.
The Greens will probably pick up a seat in the House – from Labor.
Their historic mission of sucking oxygen out of Labor will have succeeded once again.
Beyond that it will BAU for the Greens – whinging about asylum seekers and watching the Reef die.
Pontificating Paul Kelly is at his most partisan worst on Agenda this morning!
Oh no! It’s Scott Morrison on Insiders this morning.
That makes it certain that my Sunday chores will be done earlier than usual.
Keyman
as per the Royal Commission recommendations in Victoria, the fire levy was removed from insurance policies and is now levied via council rates —
http://www.firelevy.vic.gov.au/
Tony Windsor @TonyHWindsor 6m6 minutes ago
Great to catch up with @RobOakeshott1 at Bellingen ,great shame Gerard Henderson couldn’t get there .
..sorry, Keyman, realise I’m not talking about what you’re talking about!