Noteworthy developments since my last federal election post 24 hours ago:
• Ahead of the High Court’s ruling on Senator Bob Day’s challenge to the constitutionality of Senate electoral reform, to be delivered at 10am today, Jeremy Gans at the University of Melbourne portends its rejection. Gans notes the court has failed to issue orders in advance of written reasons, as it likely would have done if its ruling was anything the Australian Electoral Commission needed to know about.
• Another, less publicised election-related High Court challenge met an unsuccessful conclusion last night, with the rejection of a bid to keep the electoral roll open beyond its scheduled close of 8pm on Monday. The challenge sought to build on the High Court’s ruling during the 2010 campaign which invalidated Howard-era amendments that closed the roll to new enrolments on the evening the writs were issued, and to updating of addresses three days subsequently.
• A report by Rick Wallace of The Australian talks up Labor’s prospects in the Liberal-held outer Melbourne seat of Dunkley. The seat is being vacated with the retirement of Liberal member Bruce Billson, who narrowly retained it through the Rudd-Gillard years and bequeaths a 5.6% margin to the new Liberal candidate, Chris Crewther. According to Labor sources cited in the report, “one recent sample of a tracking poll in the southeast Melbourne seat had the ALP in front 52-48 per cent after preferences” – though based on what I know of tracking polling, the sample in question would have been about 200. Nonetheless, the Prime Minister is taking the seat seriously enough that he campaigned there yesterday. Notwithstanding Labor’s apparently strong show in this seat, the report also relates that concerns remain about the Melbourne seats of Chisholm and Bruce, where Labor is losing sitting members with the retirements of Anna Burke and Alan Griffin.
• The Australian’s report also says the Nationals are “increasingly optimistic” that their candidate for the seat of Murray, state upper house MP Damian Drum, will win the rural seat of Murray, which is being vacated with the retirement of Liberal member Sharman Stone. However, Labor is said to be dangling a carrot before the Liberals by offering to direct preferences to their candidate ahead of Drum, in exchange for the Liberals dropping their plans to preference the Greens ahead of Labor in the inner northern Melbourne seat of Wills.
• Labor has a new candidate for Fremantle following the disendorsement of Maritime Union of Australia organiser Chris Brown, who failed to disclose past convictions on his candidate nomination form. The national executive convened yesterday to replace him with Josh Wilson, deputy mayor of Fremantle and a staffer for the seat’s outgoing member, Melissa Parke. Brown won the initial preselection through the support of the Left unions on the party’s state executive, despite Wilson defeating him by a 155-110 margin in the ballot of the local membership. On Tuesday it emerged that Brown had spent convictions dating from his late teenage years for assaulting a police officer and driving under the influence. Brown claims to have raised the matter with party officials in April, only to be told spent convictions did not have to be disclosed (although the question on the nomination form is whether the prospective candidate has “ever been found guilty of any offence”). He also claimed his contact with the police officer arose accidentally while he was defending himself from an unprovoked attack by three assailants, and said the court had recognised mitigating circumstances when it gave him a good behaviour bond. I had a lot more to say about this in a paywalled article in Crikey today. One of the issues dealt with was the notion that Labor’s troubles might cause the seat to fall to the Greens, despite their modest 11.9% share of the vote in 2013. While the Greens were sufficiently strong in the immediate vicinity of Fremantle to win the state seat at a by-election in 2009, support for the party is a good deal lower on those parts of the federal electorate not covered by the state seat. This is indicated by the map below, which shows federal boundaries in red and state boundaries in blue, with numbers indicating polling booth locations and the Greens primary vote.
• Labor’s national executive has signed off on its Senate preselections today, capping a process that has produced two particularly contentious outcomes: the return of Don Farrell in second position in South Australia, and the sixth placing given to incumbent Lisa Singh in Tasmania. In turn:
New South Wales: 1. Sam Dastyari (Right), factional powerbroker and former general secretary of the state party branch, who filled the casual vacancy created when his predecessor as general secretary, Matt Thistlethwaite, moved to the lower house seat of Kingsford Smith at the 2013 election; 2. Jenny McAllister (Left), former party national president and technical director of a civil engineering firm, who came to the Senate in May last year in place of John Faulkner; 3. Deborah O’Neill (Right), member for the Central Coast seat of Robertson from 2010 until her defeat in 2013, who filled Bob Carr’s Senate vacancy in November 2013; 4. Doug Cameron (Left), former Australian Manufacturing Workers Union national secretary who was elected from number two in 2007 and 2013; 5. Tara Moriarty (Right), state secretary of United Voice.
Victoria: 1. Kim Carr (Left), leading figure in the Victorian Left, elected from number two in 1993 and 1998, and number one in 2004 and 2010; 2. Stephen Conroy (Right), an ally of Bill Shorten’s in the dominant sub-faction of the Victorian Right, who filled a casual vacancy in 1996, held top position in 1998, then second position in 2004 and 2010; 3. Jacinta Collins (Right), a former official with the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association who entered the Senate in 1995, lost her seat from the number three position at the 2004 election after the party’s preference deal with Family First backfired (ironically, given her renown as a social conservative), won it back from top position in 2007, and held second position in 2013; 4. Gavin Marshall (Left), former Electrical Trades Union official who entered the Senate in 2002, and had top position in 2013; 5. Jennifer Yang (unaligned), scientist and former mayor of Manningham who unsuccessfully sought preselection for the lower house seat of Chisholm, and ran for the state seat of Mount Waverley in 2014; 6. Louise Persse (Left, I assume), former national secretary of the Community and Public Sector Union.
Queensland: 1. Murray Watt (Left), Maurice Blackburn lawyer and state member for Everton from 2009 until his defeat in the cleanout of 2012, who last year defeated incumbent Jan McLucas to win the Left’s endorsement for top position on the half-Senate ticket; 2. Anthony Chisholm (Right), former party state secretary who last year won Right endorsement to succeed Joe Ludwig after he announced he would not seek another term; 3. Claire Moore (Left), who was first elected in 2001 and held second position on the ticket in 2001, 2007 and 2013; 4. Chris Ketter (Right), former state secretary of the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Association, who was first elected from top of the ticket in 2013; 5. Jane Casey, who I can’t tell you much about, except that she’s fron Mackay.
Western Australia: 1. Sue Lines (Left), former assistant national secretary of United Voice, who filled Chris Evans’ Senate vacancy in May 2013; 2. Glenn Sterle (Right), former Transport Workers Union organiser, elected from number two in 2004 and 2010; 3. Pat Dodson (unaligned), indigenous leader and former Roman Catholic priest, anointed by Bill Shorten to fill Joe Bullock’s Senate vacancy in March, which he eventually filled a fortnight ago; 4. Louise Pratt (Left), state upper house member from 2001 and 2007, elected to the Senate from top of the ticket in 2007, then relegated to what proved to be the losing proposition of number two in 2013; 5. Mark Reed (Left), director of campaigns and communications at United Voice.
South Australia: 1. Penny Wong (Left), the Leader of the Opposition in the Senate, first elected from top of the ticket in 2001, relegated to number two in 2007, and promoted to number one only after a backlash against Don Farrell’s initial preselection win in 2013; 2. Don Farrell (Right), former state secretary and national president of the Shop Distributive and Allied Employees Union, elected to the Senate from number one in 2007, then voluntarily bumped to number two in 2013 (see above), from which he was unexpectedly defeated; 3. Alex Gallacher (Right), former state secretary of the Transport Workers Union, elected from top of the ticket in 2010; 4. Anne McEwen (Left), former state secretary of the Australian Services Union, elected from number on 2004, re-elected from number two in 2010, and now shunted to number four to accommodate Farrell; 5. Michael Allison (not known), network controller for SA Power Networks and delegate for the Communications Electrical and Plumbing Union.
Tasmania: 1. Anne Urquhart (Left), former state secretary of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union, first elected from number two in 2010; 2. Helen Polley (Right), former staffer to Premiers Jim Bacon and Paul Lennon, first elected from number two in 2004, re-elected from number two in 2010; 3. Carol Brown (Left), who filled a casual vacancy in August 2005, was elected from number two in 2007, and re-elected from number one in 2013; 4. Catryna Bilyk (Right), a former state political staffer, elected from number three in 2007 and number two in 2013; 5. John Short (Left), state secretary of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union; 6. Lisa Singh (Left), elected to the state lower house in Denison at the 2006 election, defeated in 2010, and elected to the Senate from third position in 2013, then contentiously dumped to fourth position at the half-Senate preselection in June last year.
Australian Capital Territory: 1. Katy Gallagher (Left), the territory’s Chief Minister from 2011 until her resignation in 2014, when she resigned pending her transfer to Senate in March 2015 on the retirement of Kate Lundy.
Northern Territory: 1. Nova Peris, former Olympic hockey player and sprinter, who was installed as candidate at the 2013 on the insistence of then Prime Minister Julia Gillard at the expense of the incumbent, Trish Crossin.
Bernard Keane get it:
But much worse was the damage inflicted by the Greens raising the prospect of a governing coalition with Labor. This is profoundly toxic for Labor — no matter how much policy substance Julia Gillard’s government achieved, its link with the Greens is perceived to be deeply electorally damaging and associated with instability and broken promises. Hell will freeze over before Labor has anything to do with the Greens again, but the mere mention of a hung Parliament and a return to the Gillard era hurts Labor — and was presumably intended to by the Greens. “Tell him he’s dreaming,” Shorten responded to Greens MP Adam Bandt — but it’s a nightmare, not a dream, for Labor.
Guytaur,
Capitalism can be maintained AND the Duncan Storrer’s of this world can continue to be helped. It’s not an either/or proposition as The Greens are, and you seem to be, suggesting.
Yes. Especially as Eden-Monaro is the bellwether seat and usually goes with the government.
Catmomma
No. Keane misses the point too. Its that Gallery group think. Its not a nightmare for Labor. Except for appearance of being liberal lite.
That boosts Green votes.
As I just said above Labor is strong on Climate Change and SSM in differing themselves from the LNP.
The LNP can only win by attacking progressives for working together when they can make out that progressives working together is bad for the country. Just like they say Labor is bad for the economy.
Just look at last presser Turnbull saying Shorten does not talk about jobs. What rot.
Yet Labor types take LNP talking points about working with the Greens as gospel so many times.
C@
Wasting your time.
Guytaur is incapable of understanding the problem.
Politically, NXT seems pretty centrist, a bit like the old Australian Democrats. It’s not exactly the same, of course. Economically, maybe more Centre-right, occupying ground vacated by the ‘Liberals’ and certainly lacking their harsher positions. Socially fairly liberal. A bit of a ‘greenish’ tinge. It would be logical for them to have an open ticket to attract voters from both main parties.
I’m glad the High Court rejected that frivolous claim about the Senate voting law. As if the constitution enshrines a right to be shepherded into participating in an electoral lottery scam.
catmomma
Casey was talking hypotheticals. Lots have taken out of context for political purposes. Capitalism and socialism can and do exist simultaneously. Remember this was when it looked like Abbott would have a second term
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
High court website “under maintenance”! Hopeless.
CT
I am hoping that Vote Compass is right about the AS issue being down the list this election. Except for young voters. For those young voters that are enrolled they probably break for Labor and the Greens.
Its why today the issue has not make much of an impact in pressers. Not heard an AS question of Mr Shorten.
Zoomster
According to Quentin Dempster
Mr Turnbull’s office had told the AFR the Prime Minister did not know of Mossack Fonseca’s involvement.
If that is true then he couldn’t announce that he was involved with MF at a convenient time, like taking out the trash before a long weekend. Either he is lying (with the risk of a memo or an old business partner to contradict him) or he was blindsided.
I watched that guys on Q&A and he did well. He’s got a few issues.
Fine. i think he is most likely in the position he is in because he DOES have those issues. What, every one expects him to be some kind of saintly messenger FFS??
The guy has problems and those have caused problems for other people in his life. That’s real. That happens. But just because the messenger may not be perfect, or may be an arsehole (i dont know him ) doesn’t make the actual message any less valid.
He’s getting crowd funded? Great, he has a chance for different options than he had last week. Maybe he will make the most of that, maybe he will screw up? Dont know, but i wish him luck and hope he gets a fair go.
The smear form the Australian is pretty disgusting, lowlife crap.
And if Shorten gets hit with it the forum, frankly, i think it will be one he hits well over the boundary, or maybe straight back in Malcolms face??
daretotread @ #81 Friday, May 13, 2016 at 10:08 am
This is entirely wrong. The G vote will be at most 11%. It will likely be closer to 9%. The reason for the reduced Green showing is essentially because the economy here is quite weak. Voters want to change both the State and the Federal Governments. The straight-up, most direct and effective way to express a desire for change is to vote Labor. That is exactly what will happen. Both the Liberal and the Green vote will fall in WA at the coming election and the Labor vote will increase.
The G PV will be enough for them to win 1 seat. The Labor PV in the Senate should be at least 33%, a large recovery from the poor result of 2013 and the protest-driven collapse of the Senate vote in 2014. This will ensure Labor win at least 4 Seats and will be in the chase for a fifth. The Liberals will likely win 5 up front, down from their current 6. So on their own quotas the results will be 5+4+1 = 10. The last 2 seats will be decided by pref-flows. It’s possible these last seats will go to Labor and the Liberals on the flow of micro-party prefs. Admittedly, the G’s – very unfortunately for the good government of the country – will also have a chance for a second seat.
[As if the constitution enshrines a right to be shepherded into participating in an electoral lottery scam.]
I wasn’t all that impressed with the case put, and the likelihood that both the current and the previous system needed to fall together made it all but impossible.
Still it is a lot more credible than people still dishonestly calling the old system a lottery.
David
We are talking about the senate and it is NOT about TPP. I agree that the the ALP will pick up big time in WA which probably means a primary vote of say 29% a huge increase from 21% last election. This will leave them short 1-2% for the fourth senate spot. the greens will get one spot and probably 2. (they need a vote of about 14% to be fairly comnfident of the second spot, but this is achievable and likely. This would give the achnowledged left of centre parties 43% and a TPP of ALP about 40% (WITHOUT cointing any other minors). If we assume that the Libs get more than 36% primary then they can be confident of 5 seats. This leaves two seats to be battled for. The most likely outcome would be one of the progressive side, which might mean a choice of 4th ALP, (or second green if Labor does relatively better), or a soft progressive like Hemp or Sex. The last spot will probably go to a RW party, probably the Shooters in WA.
Obviosly the real unknown is what happens to the PUP voters. There were a lot of them in WA. My guess is that they will split many ways – Liberal, Green and Labor but also the myriad of minors..
The High Court judgment
http://www.hcourt.gov.au/assets/publications/judgment-summaries/2016/hca-20-2016-05-13.pdf
guytaur @ #110 Friday, May 13, 2016 at 10:41 am
The LNP stopped the boats and stopped the Greens too.
CT
In an election about inequality the last thing the Right wing wants is people questioning their lower taxes less services lets make the rich richer policies.
Mr Casey has just had that argument highlighted in the Right Wing media where he would normally never get coverage. Its an own goal for the Murdoch press as in the battle they lost sight of the war.
@DTT
[Unless WA does much, much better than last time in WA Lousie Pratt has very little chance. To win four seats ALP needs to get 30% of the primary, quite a hard ask with so many minor parties around. What is a much more likely outcome in WA is
ALP 3, Greens 2, a soft progressive of some kind – HEMP or sex, 5 LNP and a shooter or fisher or Christian.”]
That’s not correct.
In order to get 4 seats, Labor needs to win 1 more vote than (4/13)th (30%) of the vote after preferences and exhaustion. To do this, they need to get more than 3/13th (23%) of the vote to get 3 seats on 1st preferences, with enough left over, and that they get over the line for the 4th from preferences.
Realistically, they probably need ~26-27% from first preferences to get 4 senators.
The full High Court judgement is on line at http://eresources.hcourt.gov.au/downloadPdf/2016/HCA/20
I just finished watching the new SBS series “Follow the Money”. The Danes are really turning out some great dramas.
What will be interesting to see is the proportion of ‘valid’ votes that exhaust without impact + informals. It will be the measure of how democratic the new OPV is, how many people who voted ‘wrong’ previously are now effectively excluded. It will be much harder to work out how many people would prefer a microparty but get forced back to the majors and greens.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-05-13/vote-compass-economy-important-issues/7408232
The issues that dominate favour Labor.
William
Is there any evidence for briefly’s clam of a collapsed Green Senate vote in WA.
From your graphs it looks as if nationally the greens can expect a modest rise in their votes. Obviously the very high levels of the 2014 WA election will not be repeated, but I would have thought 13% was easily achievable in WA. At the same time I expect at least a 6% increase in ALP votes.
Raaraa,
[By replacing the councillors with administrators until LGA elections take place, they’ll pretty much agree to WestConnex.]
Verified.
Add to that the current mix of councillors for, eg. Marrickville, includes 1 Lib out of 12, the rest being fairly evenly Lab, Grn and Ind. I believe Leichhardt and Ashfield are similar – all replaced by a Lib stooge administrator.
The RBA or the REA? I know who I have faith in when it comes to an opinion wrt Negative Gearing.
Re WA Senate elections: I am not familiar with the situation over there but I expect that 2013 was low tide. A more likely scenario this year would be like 2010, with primaries of Labor 29.7%, Greens 14.0%, Coalition 46.4%. In that lot, Labor won 2/6 seats. Given that the mining boom is over and things aren’t quite so good for WA, maybe the Coalition has slipped a bit.
smh: Defence workers billed taxpayers more than $3.3m for events at private golf courses, memberships, entertainment https://t.co/5xAjz7jyeW
DAY IS DONE
RTF file of the judgement on the High Court site
BB @ 9.54
In fact, that is Turnbull’s biggest problem. Cicero’s great powers of oratory enthralled the patricians, not the plebs. He keeps trying to deliver orations worthy of Cicero when he should be modelling on someone a little more downmarket.
The fact is that he has an enormous problem linking the detail of his policy with the broader objectives. Partly this is because the links are, in fact, very tenuous. And partly, because he simply lacks the ability to relate to the people whose votes he needs.
I’m getting a little sick of the talk of Greens forming government with Labor when they only have one MP in House of reps. You don’t here this talk about coalition could be forming government with Katter Australia Party. Seriously, it’s kind of hypothetical that less likely to happen then to happen. Even if Labor were one short it might be in their interests to form government with another independent with the exception of Bob Katter.
Forming a minority government with the Greens was one of the reasons caused Labor’s primary vote to plunge to 28%. Greens are suggesting it was a great success are only look at their influence, but are not taking in consideration the damage it caused to Labor.
Guytaur:
In Xenophon’s case, I’d say that an open ticket was really the only feasible option open to him. He’s clearly trying to position himself and his party in the political centre, and preferencing either major party over the other would probably alienate potential voters who support the other side. The size of NXT’s share of the vote in SA is large enough that the party that got preferenced would have an enormous advantage in pretty much every seat, and I daresay that Xenophon would want to end up being so heavily perceived to be in their camp.
Good morning all,
For what it is worth re voter compass the most important issue for undecided voters is AS issues.
Now, I have no idea how accurate this survey is but there is the result anyway.
The coalition would not be running hard on this issue if they were not getting the same feedback.
Saying that there is very little labor can do in the face of the attacks atm. The Libs have trolled the social media pages of labor candidates and are feeding anything they have to the compliant MSM. That is no surprise. Just politics.
The surprise to me is the intensity and the early timing. They leave themselves in the position possibly of out of steam too early in such a long eight week campaign. But to me it is a sign they have little else.
The same with the greens and their deliberate attempt to muddy the waters re a possible labor / green coalition. They came out early and ran with it on the first day. Again in such a long campaign perhaps not a good idea.
Anyway, Shorten and labor are displaying the best tactics of all three parties just floating along as the coalition and greens flay around in a frenzy.
Long time to go.
Cheers.
Well, there’s the shock of the century. Turns out the High Court chucked out Bob Day’s case.
Me thinks that the hoi polloi expect too much. Australia already has the 32nd or so best health system. The layabouts and nér do wells are subsidised and the commoners are even allowed to vote. In the root and branch investigation into parliamentary entitlements will show that all is well.
In the words of an immortal “and so it goes”.
Keep up the good work ladies and gentleman, you are my source of inspiration in an otherwise dull world.
Re Duncan Storrer and capitalism.
c@tmomma: I agree with your point, but you could go further. Western capitalist societies are the only societies on human history that have been prepared to direct substantial resources to the Duncan Storrers of this world without placing harsh obligations on them to work: most likely in menial, soul-destroying jobs.
Karl Marx’s vision of a socialist utopia envisaged everyone contributing to the overall workload of the community in the way that best suits their skills, tastes and abilities, and it all somehow working out that all the work that needs to be done gets done.
This staggeringly naive vision couldn’t be more different to the reality of all socialist countries that have so far existed: the Eastern bloc, China, North Korea, Indochina, etc, etc
Bob Day and David Leyenjhelm continuing to talk crap about Senate reform, I see.
Scott
The problem with your claculation is that it assumes that labor will pick up preferences. Now under the OLD system that really never happened, alnd Labor did very badly out of the preference swapping deal (which is why i am puzzled by their recent opposition to the new voting system). However we do not really know what will happen with the new system.
However I am guessing that it will be a bit similar to the HoR and Labor will pick up 15% of the various RWNJ parties, about 20% of the various lefty progressive parties , with 40% to the Greens and 40% to the Liberals (they may get a better share of Sex). The real middle of the road parties – NXT, PUP (what is left of them) etc will probably split 50/50 between the two majors.
So out of all this lot if Labour comes in at say 27% of the vote it is still 3.8% short of the fourth Quota. Oddly enough the better the greens Do the better the chance for Labor (assuming vote drawn not from Labor). If the Greens get say 15.5% and the ALP 27%, then any surplus from the greens plus the votes of the micro progressives will head Labor’s way. On the other hand if the Greens get between 11- 13.5% they will mop up the progressive micro votes in a search for their second seat.
guytaur @ #110 Friday, May 13, 2016 at 10:41 am
Only insofar as the question has been wrt candidate’s differing views before they became candidates. Which I think can be a plus for Labor because it sends out the subliminal message that there are Laborites that possess a humane perspective that they will take into the Caucus room if they get elected. Also Bill Shorten is emphasising the humane aspect of Labor’s AS policy.
DTT@10:46am
Both 2010 and 2013 were bad results for Labor in WA – their Senate vote was around 35% (4.5 DD quotas) in from 1996 until 2007, then went below 30% in 2010 and 2013. Given the general swing back to Labor in WA, you’d expect them to get back to pre-2007 levels, and have a Senate vote at least in the low 30s. That gets them 4 seats at the DD.
Agree that where the PUP voters go this time around will be critical.
Isn’t Socialism just a certain type of Capitalism?
Steve
I think that is a pretty fair assessment of the likely WA outcome, although the LNP will drop a bit more. However there may well be a continued drift towards middle of the road newby parties – NXT, or the many smaller ones. A vote of 28.5% would be good ALP result, provided there was a big drop in the LNP votes. The challenge for Labor then is to get a good share of preferences from all these newbies and micros.
Guytaur:
Hold on, didn’t Casey say that stuff right after the 2014 Budget? Going off of Bludgertrack and my own unreliable memory, I’m fairly certain that a second Abbott term was a pretty dicey proposition even then.
‘Hell will freeze over before Labor has anything to do with the Greens again, but the mere mention of a hung Parliament and a return to the Gillard era hurts Labor..’
However, di Natale rabbitting on about Labor being prepared to go to another election rather than deal with the Greens is reinforcing that message for voters very nicely.
He really is very bad at politics.
meher baba @ 136,
I agree with your point, but you could go further. 😀
Western capitalist societies are the only societies on human history that have been prepared to direct substantial resources to the Duncan Storrers of this world without placing harsh obligations on them to work: most likely in menial, soul-destroying jobs.
Not only that but they direct resources to the Disabled when they are unable to work because capitalism realises that it is supported by these people being paid a social security payment. They can then spend much more than a beggar on the street could, or someone in a Worker’s Collective being paid in potatoes! 😀
Though I will admit that sometimes capitalists can be paid in vegetables as my late husband’s grandfather was, as a Victorian Stock and Station Agent during the Depression. 🙂
Just on the purported possibility of a Greens and Labor ‘coalition’:
The Greens talk it up because it raises the possibility for those wavering between Greens and Labor that they can have their policy cake and eat it too by voting Greens and still getting Labor with a heavy Greens influence.
The Liberals talk it up because it raises the possibility for those wavering between Labor and Liberal that voting Labor will get the perceived instability of the last minority government, as well as Labor being dragged to left of where it has positioned itself in this election.
Labor needs to kills such talk stone dead because it just bleeds votes to the left and the right. The votes that bleed to the left do nothing but reduce Labor’s ability to form government; the votes that bleed to the right put another Coalition government in power.
And Labor can actually definitively refuse to go into a coalition with the Greens. It doesn’t need to use weasel words to guard against the small possibility that it will need to do a deal with the Greens to take government after 2 July. With the momentum behind Labor and with the Coalition a disunited rabble that has only papered over its cracks until the election (whatever the outcome), Labor is certain to get re-elected in its own right at any subsequent election.
End of story.
Vomit story of the day so far :
Turnbull ‘inspiring rags-to-riches story’
Malcolm Turnbull is not “Mr Harbourside Mansion” – he’s an inspiring Australian rags-to-riches story.
That’s the response of Treasurer Scott Morrison to a pointed critique of the prime minister by former Tony Abbott chief of staff Peta Credlin.
Read more if your stomach can handle it
http://www.news.com.au/national/breaking-news/turnbull-very-much-in-touch-cormann/news-story/9e6cd7db695c2787a68cc2e89995c01a
For interest, I’ve consulted the AEC Senate results for WA for 2013. the PV’s were:
Liberal 39.2%
National 5.1%
Labor 26.6%
Green 9.5%
On July 2, there will be a notable shift away from the LNP vote to Labor. When William publishes his State data we will have a better idea of the dimensions of this shift. My expectation is Labor’s PV will easily increase by 5% to around 33%. The LNP vote will easily fall to a combined 39%. The G vote share will likely fall a bit. It will certainly not increase.
So the PV will deliver 4+5+1 (Labor, Liberal, Green). The remaining 2 seats will likely go 1 each to LAbor and Liberal.
Even on the 2013 results, Labor would have likely elected 4 Senators in 203.
Paul
‘Mr Turnbull’s office had told the AFR the Prime Minister did not know of Mossack Fonseca’s involvement.’
Actually, that’s worse.
Rightly or wrongly, people expect the PM to be across all the details. A member of the Board who didn’t know what the company was doing would be hauled over the coals.
Gillard was expected to remember what she’d done thirty years ago.
As soon as the Panama papers were revealed – and particularly once involvement in it started to trip up politicians all over the world – Turnbull should have had someone review his past dealings to see if there were any links at all.
To come out months later and say that you weren’t aware of the connection doesn’t play well.
Zoomster,
Did you read this dismantling of The Greens’ and their fellow travellers Asylum Seeker positioning by Bernard Keane yesterday? Slicing and dicing doesn’t come any finer! 😀
http://www.crikey.com.au/2016/05/12/asylum-seekers-sorry-no-escape-consequences/