An above-trend result for the Coalition from Ipsos this week has halted the long run of momentum to Labor in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate – although it hasn’t reversed it, partly thanks to a stonger result for Labor from Essential Research. Technically there has been movement in Labor’s favour for the seventh week in a row, but the movement on this occasion was inside 0.05%. Perhaps not surprisingly, this has not resulted in any change on the seat projection. The Ipsos poll also provided leadership ratings which, as BludgerTrack interprets them, were perfectly in line with an overall trend that shows Malcolm Turnbull in freefall, and Bill Shorten improving modestly.
Preselection bits:
• The latest federal MP to announce their retirement is Teresa Gambaro, who held the seat of Petrie for the Liberals through the Howard years, then made a comeback in the seat of Brisbane in 2010. Gambaro said she wished to spend more time with her family, but unnamed party sources complained to the media that Gambaro was engaging in a “dummy spit” over her failure to win promotion in recent reshuffles, and that the late hour of her announcement meant she was “all but handing it to Labor”. There was a short-lived flurry of speculation that the preselection might be contested by former Premier Campbell Newman, after his biographer, former Cairns state MP Gavin King, told ABC Radio he was “weighing it up”. However, Newman promptly knocked the idea on the head, and Cameron Adfield of Fairfax reports the preselection is likely to go to National Retail Association chief executive Trevor Evans, who was talked out of pursuing a challenge against Gambaro last year by then Prime Minister Tony Abbott. It is also expected that Robert Cavallucci, who won the state seat of Brisbane Central in 2012 and lost it again in 2015, will nominate.
• Labor’s candidate to succeed Melissa Parke in Fremantle is Chris Brown, whose CV as listed in The Australian includes 29 years as a wharfie, ten months as an organiser for the Maritime Union of Australia, and ownership of small businesses in Fremantle. Brown’s victory was owed to factional arrangements that secured him overwhelming support in the 75% of the vote determined at head office, including all but unanimous support from the union delegates who account for half the overall vote. This easily negated his 155-110 defeat in the local party ballot at the hands of Josh Wilson, the chief-of-staff to Melissa Parke and deputy mayor of Fremantle. A full account of the results is provided by Gareth Parker of The West Australian.
• Joe Kelly of The Australian reports that New South Wales Liberal Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells faces a threat to her preselection from Jim Molan, a former senior army officer who was heavily involved in the government’s efforts against unauthorised boat arrivals. Fierravanti-Wells is said to have lost support among the Right for telling journalist Niki Savva she had confronted then Prime Minister Tony Abbott over perceptions he was having an affair with his chief-of-staff, Peta Credlin. It was earlier reported that factional moderates were organising a challenge by Richard Shields, a former ministerial adviser and manager with the Insurance Council of Australia, but the threat appeared to subside when Fierravanti-Wells was appointed to the ministry.
• The Liberal preselection for Bronwyn Bishop’s seat of Mackellar has been set for April 16.
[POV recently said that Howard would currently win in a landslide and Paul Kelly agreed.]
[Davo, Mike Seccombe are you serious, don’t go there, how can you keep posting the work of left wing loons like Seccombe and keep calling it fact]
Keep up the good work steely
Dave
Mike Seccombe completely on the money over Howard’s legacy.
prettyone@2946
[ I don’t think it’s rocket science about the DD or not DD.
Mr Turnbull and his advisor Sinodinos are looking at the Newspolls for the next couple of fortnights.
They live and die by Newspoll. None of us know what the polls will say.
They are watching eagerly to see a trend, and then make election date appropriately. If Libs polls up over say 2 Newspolls, expect an election date.
]
prettyone, we are not talking here about whether we will go to a restaurant for tonight’s meal, or will we get takeaway, or will we make do with what is in the freezer.
I will try to break it to you gently.
It is just not as simple as that.
You can’t look at the polls for a couple of weeks from now, and on the spur of the moment say “OK, the budget will be brought down a week early! ScoMo, I want the finalised budget on my desk tomorrow morning!”
ScoMo would tell Truffles where he could stick the budget.
Lets see how she goes goes when she is in the media spotlight and is getting questions thrown at her.
————————————————
Nonsense, Dave.
She’s not an elected politician or ex-politician.
She’s a private citizen in a job with Sky. Enough with the chief of staff stuff. She’s not. She’s a person a job in the private sector now.
cud
[Is there any consensus here as to what would give Labor a better chance? A DD election in early July or a regular election in September?]
I don’t think that is the right question, because it is not possible to predict the future. The better course is to predict your opponent’s conduct/behaviour and to make it as difficult for them as possible.
Personally, I think that both an early DD (especially one with a long campaign period) or a later house and half senate election will both work well for Labor. Two months ago I would certainly have gone for a DD as being preferable for Labor, but the Government has hashed so many things up since then that the opportunity for Labor to delay a supply bill for a couple of days will be the most advantageous as pointing up Turnbull’s and the Government’s total inability to organise anything at all.
There is always the risk of another Tampa or 9/11 happening in the period between a DD election and a normal one. But I can’t see a Turnbull government having the judgement, consistency or persistence to handle our response the way that Howard did. Otherwise, I think they are gone. Three years of government and they have done almost nothing. They have insisted on a budget that was roundly rejected by everyone and have not even thought about a plan B – only to keep pressing Plan A with minor variations.
So, to come back to your question, I think that now Labor’s best chance is to oppose providing supine supply before 11 May and going to a normal election in August/September/October. Under no circumstances should it provide a supply needed only to enable an election 8 weeks hence, when there is absolutely no immediate concern about paying the Government’s bills. If the Greens provide the supply (which I doubt they will) then Labor will cream the Coalition and the Greens won’t look too flash either. But it won’t be di Natale’s ‘Meg Lees’ moment. Senate voting practices and supply are esoteric to most voters. The GST was central to their considerations.
Steelydan@2948
Show where I called it fact. Its an opinion piece made public so that it can be aired, or show as correct or not.
Lets see your facts. Lets see your rebuttal.
Name calling is again noted – ‘loons’
“Close to Lying” – again – lets see your facts – the ones you fail to post despite be asked to do so – over – and – and – again.
Post *your* facts !
Show me *one* post of mine where I’ve called Kouk ‘visionary’.
They are your words.
Time to put up or shut up.
Piss or get off the pot!
Tim Lester
Tim Lester – Verified account @telester
Blame shifting as #childcare costs rise, and another reason the #earlyelection might fall over. #7News #auspol http://snpy.tv/1pBV6dU
Steelydan
What part(s) of Seccombe’s opinion do you disagree with ?
PhoenixGreen
[If they didn’t get the message about Senate Reform after the past fortnight of coverage and Labor rubbish, I don’t have high hopes for this ‘pudding’ you promise.]
I didn’t ‘promise’ any particular variety.
What I said, or was trying to say, was that a comparison between a local govt election and the Federal Senate is not very indicative.
i.e. We’ll find out when a Federal election is held.
And this takes us back to:
Labor can’t compete with the ‘vibe’ of the Coalition’s economic competence.
And why I have so little faith in the much vaunted wisdom of the electorate.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-18/brent-the-vibe-of-the-coalition's-economic-competence/7257152
don @ 2943
[I’m sure many people think that the election campaign is already well and truly started. Certainly the pollies seem to think that way.]
Once an election is called, a government loses most of the advantages of office as we enter the caretaker period. The ABC and SBS have to go to strict equal exposure, government advertising has to be suspended except in the most apolitical situations, and the Government cannot make pork barrelling decisions – only promise them. At the same time, the Opposition has increased resources, paid for by the taxpayer – especially travel for the LOTO – at its disposal.
A long official campaign period is about the dumbest thing a Government can do unless they are absolutely desperate to regain lost ground.
I’m disappointed that no-one here has twigged onto exactly why Turnbull wants a July 2 election.
All the nasty cuts they are going to bring in take effect for July 1 this year (EG Medicare cuts to pathology, x-rays, etc.) as well as the beginning of mass redundancies in the car industry later in the year.
He wants an election before any of these become firmly lodged in voters minds.
prettyone@2954
She ceases to be a ‘private citizen’ once she starts ‘commentating’ on the abbott years and what went wrong, etc.
She lends succor and assistance to Labor when she starts shooting her mouth off on TV etc.
The more the better I say – bring it on – with bells on!
PS – Particularly in the middle of an election campaign.
prettyone@2954
You really, really don’t know how the world works, do you prettyone?
[What part(s) of Seccombe’s opinion do you disagree with ?]
Obviously, it’s the by-line and, by extension, everything below it.
[Re a DD: if the situation were reversed, an LNP Opposition would have given close and detailed consideration to the matter for about three and a half nanoseconds before deciding to defer (not block) supply until it was too late for a DD.]
Correct answer.
[ POV recently said that Howard would currently win in a landslide ]
WoW!! 🙂
[ and Paul Kelly agreed. ]
Ahhhhh..confirmation that its bollocks then. 🙂
Dan Gulberry
[All the nasty cuts they are going to bring in take effect for July 1 this year (EG Medicare cuts to pathology, x-rays, etc.) as well as the beginning of mass redundancies in the car industry later in the year]
That was why I thought Abbott was always going to look for an early election . What nasties were not scheduled from July 1 were set down for just after the next election.
Asha Leu@2938
NO!!!
TPOF@2961
I take your point, but I disagree with the pork barrelling. They may not be able to MAKE those decisions, but as sure as dog made little green apples, they are going to PROMISE those pork barrelling decisions. Surely you have seen enough election campaigns to know that that is so.
She lends succor and assistance to Labor when she starts shooting her mouth off on TV etc.
——————————————————
I see her as a person who wants a job commensurate with her experience.
I detect no desire for vengeance but simply to provide points of view from a person involved in politics for 15 years or so. She may provide very interesting insights.
She’s a very attractive woman, too, and that’s good for TV.
I guess I’m biased because her loyalty to T.Abbott is wonderful. Loyalty is the quality that holds us together in any situation, family, workplace, etc.
[ That was why I thought Abbott was always going to look for an early election . What nasties were not scheduled from July 1 were set down for just after the next election. ]
Not as if Labor aren’t going to saturate the airwaves with all of this during a long long election campaign ?
Bring it on :devil:
Its a two horse race and I’m no way claiming victory – but I’m not conceding anything either.
[I’m disappointed that no-one here has twigged onto exactly why Turnbull wants a July 2 election.]
This has been mentioned before.
Regarding Tim Wilson:
Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP 14h14 hours ago
Doesn’t get much closer than that – Tim Wilson wins preselection contest 142-140.
[ He wants an election before any of these become firmly lodged in voters minds. ]
But he has to deliver a Budget that will remind voters of all that. 🙂 Poor Mal. 🙂
Or he could do a DD without a Budget that simply begs the line:
“Its Liberal, It Lies, and it Hides!!”
[I see her as a person who wants a job commensurate with her experience.]
If that’s the case she should try her hand at drill sargenting rather than election commentating.
prettyone
I hope and pray the TV networks put her on every night of the week and twice on Sundays.
Even the tories know it will not help them.
dave@2956
Where the bloody hell are you SD !
Put up or STFU!
Dan @ 2962
The 2 July date is a combination of technical constitutional provisions and self-delusion on the part of the Government.
The technical reasons are that the Constitution will not allow a DD within 6 months of a normal election being due – the last date is therefore May 11. But when a DD is held, the the Senate elected is taken to have commenced their terms the previous 1 July. That means that the half the Senate elected at a DD on or before 30 June and who have three year terms onlywill be taken to have commenced their terms on 1 July 2015. Therefore their terms will expire on 30 June 2018 and a half senate election is therefore required before that date.
This would mean another election 2 years or less after the DD now. However, if the DD is held on or after 1 July 2016, there would not be another half-senate election due until just before 30 June 2019, in good time to have also a normal Reps election, almost 3 years after the current one.
The self-delusion goes to the theory that if the government could clear out the cross-bench senators (7 out of 8 of whom have six year terms beginning on 1 July 2014) the Government would have no problems getting its eminently sensible 2014 budget provisions through the Senate.
prettyone@2971
[
I detect no desire for vengeance but simply to provide points of view from a person involved in politics for 15 years or so. She may provide very interesting insights.
]
I am sure many others here are going to be just as fascinated as I am in gaining access to those interesting insights!
:angel: 😎 😀
Additionally, are we sure Newspoll is today and not tomorrow?
don @ 2970
[ but as sure as dog made little green apples, they are going to PROMISE those pork barrelling decisions.]
Absolutely true. But Labor is in precisely the same position and it would depend on who the good burghers of the relevant electorate thought would win the election. My point was that the Government of the day can announce a decision, and not just make a promise.
[If that’s the case she should try her hand at drill sargenting rather than election commentating.]
Or a nightclub bouncer.
Seccombe virtually unknown journalist of the far left and Paul Kelly respected political journalist surely you get that Vogen even if you don’t like it, but maybe you don’t.
Steely @ 2984
I have to report that I have drawn the short straw to advise you that nobody here give’s a rat’s rear end for your opinions of the comparative standings of Mike Seccombe and Paul Kelly.
dave
[Where the bloody hell are you ..]
Ah , the mating call of the Lesser Spotted Morrison. SD should find it irresistible.
@2359 – that’s the issue. The Budget cannot be moved forward without some decent warning (don’t forget important national accounts and economic data comes out in the last week of April). The departments are already working ridiculous hours getting work done, but… that’s still driven by a May 10 Budget, move that forward you’re going to have to accelerate work and have that start… well, now.
@2984 – Kelly’s time as a ‘respected’ journalist are long-gone.
Steelydan@2984
Yet again,
Still – you are silent on any rebuttal.
How embarrassing for you.
Most posters here know of and have read Mike Seccombe for many years and have both agreed and disagreed with him
[ Mike Seccombe is an Australian journalist. He covered national affairs and politics for The Sydney Morning Herald for many years.
He authored the once-infamous Kookaburra column, so named after then prime minister Paul Keating referred to him as “that [expletive] Kookaburra”.
From 2006-2011, he lived on Martha’s Vineyard, Massachusetts writing for the venerable Vineyard Gazette ]
poroti 🙂
TPOF –
This has long featured in discussions about the possible election date, and while it is a motivation to go for July 2 over an earlier date (and more sensible campaign duration) it has never been a complete roadblock. If the government were convinced they could win by having the election date sooner then they would do that in a heartbeat whether or not they only get 2 years in the next term.
But the Senate reforms have just added more weight to going after July 1 – now if the election is held before July 1 it’s going to be a complete farce because it would be held with the system that has just been voted out of existence. That still doesn’t completely rule out an earlier election but sheesh it would be … laughable chaos from the government.
So yeah it seems it’s either the May 11/July 2 ultra ugly combo or it’s a regular election in September/October. My money is still on the regular election because the DD is just too hard and too risky. Unless Turnbull either panics or shows a lot more guts and a lot more smarts than he has shown to date.
But the CPG seem so sure July 2 is the date …
@2991 – the other issue to consider is that while crashing, Turnbull’s ratings are stronger than Shorten’s and I can’t help think that Turnbull thinks a Presidential-style election against Shorten would “obviously” work well for them.
[Tim Lester
Tim Lester – Verified account @telester
Blame shifting as #childcare costs rise, and another reason the #earlyelection might fall over. #7News #auspol http://snpy.tv/1pBV6dU%5D
And there is the confirmation of what I’ve been banging on about for weeks. IF Turnbull got the Senate to return a week earlier they MIGHT decide that that was enough time to go over the appropriations bills.
But the Senate won’t be coming back until the 10th. Now maybe Turnbull will bring the House back on the third so he has 2 full days in the Senate to get his appropriations through. But Labor can (and WILL) simply say it’s not enough time to give the bills appropriate scrutiny. I don’t see the Greens realistically rolling over on this either. Therefore DD dead. Turnbull confirmed incompetent.
Labor are happy to string the Libs along with their ‘we don’t block supply’ routine, but they also don’t simply vote for any old appropriations bill without having gone over it with a fine tooth comb. They won’t do so this time either, and if Turnbull is stupid enough to fall into the trap being laid for him then he simply won’t recover.
I have thought for a while that the Libs aren’t really that stupid, but the longer they wait to kill of the July 2 speculation, the more I start to think maybe they ARE even more stupid than I’d imagined.
One thing I’m not really that surprised about is that it has taken so long for our media to work out something that was pretty obvious? Send me your fkn pay packets you nongs ’cause you are all obtaining money by deception.
Steely appears to have run out of steam
What use an impotent dildo
Jackol
[ But the CPG seem so sure July 2 is the date … ]
Don’t forget they have a vested interest – the speculation of a DD sells newspapers. Then Mal’s “backdown” will sell more newspapers. Then the “real” campaign will sell even more newspapers.
Truth is not a necessary ingredient in journalism these days.
VogonPoet
[ Steely appears to have run out of steam
What use an impotent dildo ]
Perhaps we should dub him floppydan?
TPOF
I’m fully aware of the technical details, however the hip pocket effects are also worthy of being noted, and should be being used and promoted by all good progressive parties and voters.
The average punter out there in voterland probably couldn’t give a rodent’s ringpiece about the technical issues, however they DO give a damn about the nasties coming their way.
I think Newspoll only appears Sunday night if parliament is sitting the next day. Monday otherwise. Is this correct?
jackol @ 2991
Yes. All that is correct. With the senate election provisions now enacted there will definitely not be an election before July.
Those cuts that everyone is worried about starting on July 1 are already coming in and being noticed.
Talk about leading with your chin. So the Coalition lead off with Child Care Rebate cuts!?!
If steelydan’s political god, the Rodent, could tell us anything useful he would say that, in an election year, don’t go after the young families with kids! It’s never a good look.
All I can add is that, if you do go after young families, don’t turn around and give yourself a $6500/year tax cut.