An above-trend result for the Coalition from Ipsos this week has halted the long run of momentum to Labor in the BludgerTrack poll aggregate – although it hasn’t reversed it, partly thanks to a stonger result for Labor from Essential Research. Technically there has been movement in Labor’s favour for the seventh week in a row, but the movement on this occasion was inside 0.05%. Perhaps not surprisingly, this has not resulted in any change on the seat projection. The Ipsos poll also provided leadership ratings which, as BludgerTrack interprets them, were perfectly in line with an overall trend that shows Malcolm Turnbull in freefall, and Bill Shorten improving modestly.
Preselection bits:
• The latest federal MP to announce their retirement is Teresa Gambaro, who held the seat of Petrie for the Liberals through the Howard years, then made a comeback in the seat of Brisbane in 2010. Gambaro said she wished to spend more time with her family, but unnamed party sources complained to the media that Gambaro was engaging in a “dummy spit” over her failure to win promotion in recent reshuffles, and that the late hour of her announcement meant she was “all but handing it to Labor”. There was a short-lived flurry of speculation that the preselection might be contested by former Premier Campbell Newman, after his biographer, former Cairns state MP Gavin King, told ABC Radio he was “weighing it up”. However, Newman promptly knocked the idea on the head, and Cameron Adfield of Fairfax reports the preselection is likely to go to National Retail Association chief executive Trevor Evans, who was talked out of pursuing a challenge against Gambaro last year by then Prime Minister Tony Abbott. It is also expected that Robert Cavallucci, who won the state seat of Brisbane Central in 2012 and lost it again in 2015, will nominate.
• Labor’s candidate to succeed Melissa Parke in Fremantle is Chris Brown, whose CV as listed in The Australian includes 29 years as a wharfie, ten months as an organiser for the Maritime Union of Australia, and ownership of small businesses in Fremantle. Brown’s victory was owed to factional arrangements that secured him overwhelming support in the 75% of the vote determined at head office, including all but unanimous support from the union delegates who account for half the overall vote. This easily negated his 155-110 defeat in the local party ballot at the hands of Josh Wilson, the chief-of-staff to Melissa Parke and deputy mayor of Fremantle. A full account of the results is provided by Gareth Parker of The West Australian.
• Joe Kelly of The Australian reports that New South Wales Liberal Senator Concetta Fierravanti-Wells faces a threat to her preselection from Jim Molan, a former senior army officer who was heavily involved in the government’s efforts against unauthorised boat arrivals. Fierravanti-Wells is said to have lost support among the Right for telling journalist Niki Savva she had confronted then Prime Minister Tony Abbott over perceptions he was having an affair with his chief-of-staff, Peta Credlin. It was earlier reported that factional moderates were organising a challenge by Richard Shields, a former ministerial adviser and manager with the Insurance Council of Australia, but the threat appeared to subside when Fierravanti-Wells was appointed to the ministry.
• The Liberal preselection for Bronwyn Bishop’s seat of Mackellar has been set for April 16.
[But the CPG seem so sure July 2 is the date …]
A very good reason to be suss.
There is a significant risk to bringing the budget forward to May 3 that no one much has broached. It severely restricts the time available for checking and double checking.
Just one glaring stuff up that would have been identified if not for the rush that sneaks through could create a massive hit. It would certainly smash ScoMo’s standing even further (and lord knows he doesn’t need that), and there must therefore also be collateral damage at least to Turnbull and the Govt.
Labor, the Greens, the x-benchers and most of the media would go to town on it. It would be evidence of incompetence and rushed process (Hey Mal and Scotty, what was that about not rushing so you could release well considered policy?) that would strike right at the heart of the Libs re-election strategy.
Seriously. I can not see why some people are trying to link this weeks Senate reform debate to the Brisbane Lord Mayor election?
That argument is patently absurd and clearly being pushed by those with an agenda.
It would be like me saying that the ALP were justified in their opposition and tactics this week because a poll taken on Thursday night during the height of the debate shows a big swing and large lead to the ALP here in the West.
Clearly IF the result in a mayoral election was affected by the reform debate then by rights the same must be true for the poll result in WA.
In that case I have no doubt that the ALP will happily cede the Lord Mayors position to the libs if it also means large gains where it actually matters here in the West at a state and Federal level.
Good work ALP, once again winning the important battles 🙂
Some brief comments on possible election dates.
There is no value for Malcolm in delaying any longer than he has to. The Abbott ginger group has put the snuff up his nose, and the poker up his arse to an extent wherby he needs the personal mandate an election will bring.
May 12 calling/ July 2 voting? Yes, a well telegraphed DD option. But some things now out of the PMs hands.
But why wait till May 12? Why not call a DD in April with a 5 week campaign and vote in May?
Yes the Budget gets delayed (those pesky Senators rejecting Budgets past). A half Senate election is required within 2 years, who gives a rats?
Those retiring MPs whi gave their valedictories this last week may well have been on the money.
And the likelihood of a High Court challenge to the Senate voting reforms succeeding? An exclellent read here
http://clubtroppo.com.au/2016/03/20/on-mooted-high-court-challenges-to-senate-voting-reforms/
PlayerOne,
Would only be fair to muck up the spelling
FoppishDandy ?
[Seriously. I can not see why some people are trying to link this weeks Senate reform debate to the Brisbane Lord Mayor election?]
Yes I laughed at that too. Obviously they are drawing inferences from the Brisbane council election that support whatever position they wanted to assert in relation to the forthcoming federal election. I just rolled my eyes and scrolled on.
sprocket @ 3003
[Yes the Budget gets delayed (those pesky Senators rejecting Budgets past). A half Senate election is required within 2 years, who gives a rats?]
I would add Jackol’s point that the Senate election would be on the old rules – with a potential new bunch of micro parties holding balance of power. The other problem, though not insuperable, would be the accusations of cutting and running that would be levelled at Turncoat and co. Questions like ‘what are they hiding by not presenting a budget?’ and so forth.
None of the options open to Turncoat, for all his bluff and bluster, are particularly appetising to someone who traded his aura of political integrity for the right to be called Prime Minister for a few months.
[But why wait till May 12? Why not call a DD in April with a 5 week campaign and vote in May?
Yes the Budget gets delayed (those pesky Senators rejecting Budgets past). A half Senate election is required within 2 years, who gives a rats?]
It’s May 11. If we get to May 12 with no dissolution then we’re going until August at least.
And the AEC say they need three months to get the new voting systems in place for the Senate, so (assuming there was no allowance in bill to use existing voting if the AEC can’t do it – and I don’t think there is) going before July is completely out of the options now because the AEC can’t do it.
As I’ve said previously, Turnbull got too greedy and now he’ll get nothing. He could have gone to a DD any time since he got he leadership. He could have introduced the Senate reform bill months ago and gone DD after that. He could have telegraphed his moves even more and put an interim supply bill up early this year. But he wanted everything including the ABCC. It was just too many ducks to get in a row.
[ FoppishDandy ? ]
Nah! When someone names themselves after a steel dildo, you’ve got to think they’re not into subtlety.
Actually scratch that, the Senate reform bill has an activation date of July one, so a pre-July DD would just be on the old rules.
If there’s one thing that’s new about Newspoll tonight (or some point over the past two weeks), it’s this cool interactive infographic on the federal election.
It’s showing a hung parliament right now, 74 Coalition-71 ALP.
That Newspoll infographic is amazing. I love it.
Airlines:
Oh wow that’s pretty cool. Imagine Turnbull and the coalition having to cope with a hung parliament. 😀
Well P1, he is a very blunt instrument.
[ sprocket_
Posted Sunday, March 20, 2016 at 9:46 pm | Permalink
Some brief comments on possible election dates.
There is no value for Malcolm in delaying any longer than he has to. The Abbott ginger group has put the snuff up his nose, and the poker up his arse to an extent wherby he needs the personal mandate an election will bring. ]
Must be many asking if he missed the opportunity of a political lifetime to go just after he got the PM’s job and his Polling was through the roof.
Its all benefit of hindsight now – but the old saying goes – about the goddess of battles presenting only once – and you either take the opportunity – or it goes…and is lost…
No doubt turnbull and those around him have the same sort of thoughts.
But it doesn’t just end at that….poor decision(s) in the coming weeks or ones already set in train….might deliver a lifetime of dreams of glory onto the rocks.
I fucken hope so!
Excellent take down of the dummies…
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-03-18/smith-boxed-into-a-ridiculous-corner-on-tax/7257380
Or the more likely scenario of Steely Dan naming himself after the band.
But these are just subtleties
The graph has PUP with 1, where did they get that from ?
sprocket
They will definitely not have an election before a budget is delivered.
Voters still remember Abbott campaigning on a “trust us” basis and then delivering the nastiest budget in living memory.
If Turnbull tries a “just vote for us and we’ll tell you what we have in mind after the election” will be electoral suicide.
Newspoll still allocating a PUP seat? On what basis?
No one seriously thinks Clive is going to hold on in Fairfax do they?
Vogon, 3017
As far as I can tell, the model can only predict ALP vs Coalition seats, so as for any seats that don’t fit into this, it’s assumed that the incumbent will win.
[The graph has PUP with 1, where did they get that from ?]
They generally assume independents hang on because they don’t have enough seat level polling in a national poll to know one way or the other. So they’re assuming Clive hangs on. He won’t, but maybe assume Windsor wins and the numbers don’t really change.
[ The departments are already working ridiculous hours getting work done, but… ]
Ahhhhh..these would be the federal public servants that have been so screwed over by this Govt re: pay and conditions would they??
Bet they will be just soooooooooooooooo happy to go that extra few hours effort to further the Libs political objectives?? 🙂
No Clive will lose Fairfax. That’ll be a coalition gain.
It may well be over for Malcolm whether he wins the election or not – and I don’t mean an Abbott comeback. He will lose seats and never be given an effective mandate by his party.
Drooling over the first episode of Carre’s The. Night Manager ….
2979
(Warning, I am not a lawyer.)
I would argue that Senators being elected on the 1st of July (that can`t happen this year because its not a Saturday this year) would commence their terms on the 1st day of July the previous year because a day cannot precede itself and section 13 of the Constitution specifies that the term “shall be taken to begin on the first day of July preceding the day of his election” (his referring to a Senator).
It could also be argued that “the day of his election” refers not to polling day but to the day the senators declared elected, meaning that polling days in the weeks leading up to the 2nd of July could potentially lead to terms starting from the 1st of July that year, rather than the previous.
Rossmore@3025
They changed it from the book as usual of course. The Book was excellent.
I recall him saying when Book 22 (?) was published that ‘it was his best’.
Our Kind of Traitor – deserves that title – IMO.
[ If Turnbull tries a “just vote for us and we’ll tell you what we have in mind after the election” will be electoral suicide. ]
It just gets better and better Wot?? 🙂 It is going to be fascinating to see what the Libs get up to in the next few weeks and how they spin things.
[ It may well be over for Malcolm whether he wins the election or not ]
Yup. If the Libs have three years of Govt in the bag then they have no more use for Mal. He’s actually much more vulnerable in an #leadershit context after an election than he is now.
imacca
[ He’s actually much more vulnerable in an #leadershit context after an election than he is now. ]
So if we re-elect Mal with a reduced majority we get Abbott back? I’m sure the electorate will just love the thought of that.
And no wonder Credlin wants to commentate the election – she can prepare the ground for her boy starting on the very night of the election.
http://www.theguardian.com/books/2016/feb/20/john-le-carre-the-night-manager-television-adaptation
An article written by John.
Was going to watch it, where are you getting it from ?
I wouldn’t give up on Clive. His twerking routine has gone up a notch since 2013. Nickel tassels, Jurassic g-string; if he can move with music, he’s in.
[ So if we re-elect Mal with a reduced majority we get Abbott back? ]
Jeeze P1..you would fit in well over at Nuttertruckers or on Andrew Bolts blog then………… 🙂
Nah…..ScoMo i reckon. But very unlikely that Mal will last long unless he delivers more seats than they have now.
[ I wouldn’t give up on Clive. His twerking routine has gone up a notch since 2013. Nickel tassels, Jurassic g-string; if he can move with music, he’s in. ]
You should be seriously banned for that imagery. 🙁
Can’t find the Senate section in the Newspoll infographic. I guess they’ll launch that closer to the election
Newspoll tomorrow 51-49 to Coalition.
Turnbull now on -5 net approval.
Peta will have the Sky boys eating out of the palm of her hand.
By the way, will she have the power of veto over who she shares the panel with, or even who she interviews?
Not out of steam guys just Dinner, and just for for you Davo try this one on Abbott inherited a $19 billion deficit and net debt of $153 billion when he took office in September 2013. By comparison, his predecessor Mr Rudd inherited a surplus of $17 billion and net assets of $29 billion, and before him Mr Howard inherited a deficit of $14 billion and net debt of $83 billion the worst deficit since world war 11 as a % of GDP. And please have a look at Federal Government deficits as a % of GDP since WW 11 and net debt inheritance of incoming Governments as a % of GDP. You guys stuff it we fix it, that’s how its been in modern times.. and that’s a fact, but please go back to dildo jokes
Thanks JAmes J!
[ Newspoll tomorrow 51-49 to Coalition.
Turnbull now on -5 net approval. ]
Thanks, James J!
The 51-49 is just noise – but that net approval drop is not!
Gotta love that Newspoll. So much for Labor’s anti-Green strategy.
The new Newspoll takes it to 78-67.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll
Phoenix, 3040
To be fair – we don’t know if it didn’t affect the Greens, they could have had a drop in PV and not the ALP (however it could also be vice versa)
Nobody can doubt that Turnbull is toast after those leadership numbers, surely.
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/national-affairs/newspoll-malcolm-turnbulls-approval-into-negative-territory-still-trusted-over-bill-shorten/news-story/7b34b25c10e42af83faf9d4a7195d03a
[Newspoll: Malcolm Turnbull’s approval into negative territory, still trusted over Bill Shorten
The Australian
March 20, 2016 10:30PM
Phillip Hudson Bureau Chief Canberra
Malcolm Turnbull’s approval rating as Prime Minister has fallen into negative territory for the first time but voters still rank him overwhelmingly as the best leader to manage the economy and deliver tax reform, and expect him to win this year’s election.
The latest Newspoll, taken exclusively for The Australian, also shows the Coalition has nudged ahead in two-party-preferred terms to lead by 51 per cent to Labor’s 49 per cent due to a slip in support for the opposition.
Despite a messy start to the year, with a reshuffle forced by the resignation of ministers and the government’s mangled messages on tax reform, the poll also shows 55 per cent of voters think the Coalition will be returned at the election while only 25 per cent believe Labor can win.
As Mr Turnbull weighs up whether to have a double-dissolution election on July 2 or wait longer for a regular election, Newspoll shows he is considered best to manage the economy by 54 per cent of voters compared with 20 per cent who favour Bill Shorten, while 45 per cent say the Prime Minister is the more capable of handling tax reform compared with 25 per cent who say it is the Labor leader.
However, the poll of 2049 voters, taken from Thursday to Sunday, shows satisfaction with Mr Turnbull’s performance has continued its downwards trajectory, falling to 39 per cent.
…………….
The Coalition’s primary vote was unchanged for the third consecutive Newspoll at 43 per cent, which is still higher than it was for most of the two years Mr Abbott was in power but lower than the 45.6 per cent at the last election.
Labor eased one point to 34 per cent and in the past six months its primary vote has been between 33 and 35 per cent. The Greens, who faced a relentless attack from Labor over their support for the government on Senate reforms, were also unchanged at 12 per cent. Support for other parties rose from 10 to 11 per cent.
Based on preference flows from the last election, the Coalition has edged ahead in two-party terms by 51 per cent to Labor’s 49 per cent. The past two Newspolls had the parties deadlocked at 50-50 after the government began the year ahead 53 per cent to 47 per cent.
Asked which political party they expect will win the election, 55 per cent of voters nominated the government to be returned while 25 per cent think Labor will win and 20 per cent were uncommitted.]
@Airlines
Oh no, I was talking about the PV results. Labor down one to 34, Greens steady at 12.
Phoenix, 3045
Hadn’t seen them yet, my bad.
[Steelydan
Posted Sunday, March 20, 2016 at 10:32 pm | PERMALINK
Not out of steam guys just Dinner, and just for for you Davo try this one on Abbott inherited a $19 billion deficit and net debt of $153 billion when he took office in September 2013. ]
By the time of the election the tories will be close to having doubled the debt and made the debt far worse despite increasing/ bringing in new taxes totaling $20 billion.
Noice one – after all those solemn promises to ‘pay down the debt’
Its noted you still haven’t even attempted to answer the range of questions/ matters raised upthread.
This is an important bit.
GhostWhoVotes @GhostWhoVotes 6m6 minutes ago
#Newspoll Turnbull: Approve 39 (-5) Disapprove 44 (+3) #auspol
Re net approval remember when NewsLtd and others in the CPG would say it was so important.
Also I agree Turnbull’s position will be weaker after an election if he looses many seats, the mindset in the party room will be there are 3 years to make good with the electorate, so may as well get it over with.
John Reidy
What does CPG stand for?
TIA