Essential Research’s final result for the year moves slightly back in line with the rest of the pack, with the Coalition lead up a point on the fortnightly rolling average to 52-48. On the primary vote, the Coalition is up one to 45%, Labor down one to 35%, and the Greens down one to 10%. Respondents were also asked to rate six leading politicians as good or poor, which found Malcolm Turnbull leading the field on 50% good and 17% poor, Julie Bishop performing strongly on 43% good and 21% poor, and Scott Morrison doing less well on 22% good and 25% poor. Richard Di Natale came in at 16% good and 28% poor, but the real stragglers were Bill Shorten at 14% good and 44% poor, and especially Clive Palmer, rated good by 8% and poor by 60%. The appointment of Joe Hockey as ambassador to the United States records 33% approval and 42% disapproval. The poll also finds no clear view as to whether the Coalition government has been higher or lower spending than Labor, with 22% for higher, 21% for lower and 23% for about the same.
Meanwhile at Roy Morgan, the already huge lead for the Coalition blows out still further, with the Coalition up 1.5% on the primary vote to 48%, Labor down by the same amount to 27% and the Greens up half a point to 14.5%. On the headline respondent-allocated measure of two-party preferred, the Coalition lead is out from 56-44 to 57.5-42.5, while previous election preferences have it out from 55-45 to 56-44.
I would be very surprised if the I squared R loss over 150 km was 1 third assuming the transmission Voltage was 330,000 Volts
swamprat
[The Engish Tory Government has introduced laws to provide for two classes of Westminster MPs. If an item is declared to be an “English” matter non English MP’s cannot vote. ]
That’s because those parts of the Union that have their own parliaments decide on devolved matters. The English have no such forum to vote on matters that solely effect England.
[Scottish matters are still decided by English MPs.]
Those matters that effect the whole of the Union, not just Scotland, are voted on by all Westminster parliamentarians.
Millennial
Its a ComRes Poll GB wide. The Scottish sub-sample is therefore not as accurate as a scots only poll.
http://scotgoespop.blogspot.com.au/2015/11/it-comres-corker-gb-wide-poll-points-to.html
Mellennial
Do You know this website?
http://whatscotlandthinks.org
billie@42
Where on earth did you get those figures?
They are 500 kV lines. Losses would be certainly less than 4%.
from wikipedia:
[Transmitting electricity at high voltage reduces the fraction of energy lost to resistance, which varies depending on the specific conductors, the current flowing, and the length of the transmission line. For example, a 100 mile 765 kV line carrying 1000 MW of power can have losses of 1.1% to 0.5%. A 345 kV line carrying the same load across the same distance has losses of 4.2%]
And 100 miles = ~ 160 km
Why Scotland needs independence:
So, cries of ‘It’s the narrowing!’ are premature.
[CTar1
Posted Tuesday, December 15, 2015 at 9:16 pm | Permalink
swamprat
The Engish Tory Government has introduced laws to provide for two classes of Westminster MPs. If an item is declared to be an “English” matter non English MP’s cannot vote.
That’s because those parts of the Union that have their own parliaments decide on devolved matters. The English have no such forum to vote on matters that solely effect England.
Scottish matters are still decided by English MPs.
Those matters that effect the whole of the Union, not just Scotland, are voted on by all Westminster parliamentarians.]
So, if there is a question to the effect of, ‘Is the Pope a Catholic?’…
…who gets to vote?
Ctar
[Those matters that effect the whole of the Union, not just Scotland, are voted on by all Westminster parliamentarians.]
You do not know how it works do you? Scottish taxes are used to fund London infrastructure, funds flowing to Scotland are affected by spending in England yet Scots MPs have no say. It is impossible on many issues in a unitary state to say how things affect.
The Scotland Act, recently passed by Westminster voted on by all MPs, was opposed by 95% of Scottish MPs but was passed on English votes!!!
don @55
I didn’t think they used 500kV other than Bass Link.
It won’t make a huge difference, but I thought 330KV was the usual voltage in Vic.
CTar, many Scottish nationalists are quite happy with EVEL (English Votes for English Laws) as it marks the beginning of the end of the Union experiment.
Bw
Typhoon Melor causing more havoc.
Lenore Taylor is interesting reading.
Malcolm Turnbull’s stocks remain high, but his coffers are increasingly empty
[This budget statement shows how fundamentally Malcolm Turnbull is going to have to try to turn politics on its head.
Governments usually spend political capital in the first half of the term and money in the second. But the timing and circumstances of Turnbull’s ascent to the prime ministership mean he is in the highly awkward position of having to do the reverse.
He has no money to spend, in fact the budget deficit has blown out by $26bn over the forward estimates in the seven months since May – it’s up to $37.4bn this year – and net debt stays higher for longer.
Even accepting that the “debt ’n’ deficit disaster” hyped by Turnbull’s predecessor was always a hyperbolic overstatement, these numbers show clearly that two years into Coalition rule, the economy is not yet headed in the direction they promised and the end of the commodity boom remains a problem for which they have not yet found a solution.
And since Turnbull justified the leadership coup with the argument that the country needed new economic leadership and an end to intelligence-insulting slogans and spin, he is going to have to come up with some potentially unpopular decisions in next year’s budget to provide a convincing explanation about how he intends to turn things around.]
[
billie
Posted Tuesday, December 15, 2015 at 8:44 pm | Permalink
re Alcoa’s electricity demands
Of course most people, including journalists, are unaware that a third of electricity generated in the La Trobe Valley is lost in transmission to Melbourne a 150km journey.
Portland is on the South Australian border so that’s a lot more electricity lost in transmission between generator and user. I would not be surprised if half the electricity generated in the La Trobe Valley is lost in transmission on its 500+km journey to Portland
]
CTaR1
Yep. Rellies are hunkering down. Fatalism comes in handy in that neck of the swamps.
I wondered how nonsense gets repeated on the internet; now I know; people accidental repost it.
What is your excuse billy. Transmission losses are in the order of 6% not 33%.
[
billie
Posted Tuesday, December 15, 2015 at 8:44 pm | Permalink
re Alcoa’s electricity demands
Of course most people, including journalists, are unaware that a third of electricity generated in the La Trobe Valley is lost in transmission to Melbourne a 150km journey.
]
50
C@tmomma
[Posted Tuesday, December 15, 2015 at 9:10 pm | PERMALINK
I just don’t get it. Scott Morrison virtually admits to Leigh Sales on 7.30 tonight that all of the ‘Debt and Deficit Disaster’ schtick was just the Coalition Opposition playing politics in order to destroy the federal Labor government and thus get elected themselves.
Then, when they are elected they do a worse job than Labor.
Plus, they have more scandals and chaos and dysfunction than you could fill a ship of fools with.
And still the electorate can’t get enough of them!
I. Just. Don’t. Get. It.]
It is the silly season, but I do wonder if Labor really want to win the next election?
victoria@68
Well it reached a new peak of silliness with that particular statement.
bemused
As i said it is the silly season
[
bemused
Posted Tuesday, December 15, 2015 at 9:37 pm | Permalink
don @55
I didn’t think they used 500kV other than Bass Link.
It won’t make a huge difference, but I thought 330KV was the usual voltage in Vic.
]
The common transmission voltage in Vitoria is 220KV phase to phase. The portland link is unusual in that it is 500KV phase to phase. There is a 330KV line coming down from NSW (a common transmission voltage there). The base straight link is DC and is 400KV.
victoria@70
So you set out to prove it.
Turnbull isn’t Abbott so it’s a great improvement but no better than if the PM was a turnip. The main thing is that the same Libs that supported Abbotts crazy policies are still there including Turnbull who in my opinion is all puff and no powder, no wonder he’s called talcum.
Turnbull has been handed the poison chalice from Abbott’s incompetence and Howard giving all to the rich turing the good years.
From now on Labor must hammer home that the leader may have changed but the Libs still want Abbott’s policies.
This may not be easy as we have a so called retired Science teacher saying that solar panels soak up all the suns rays and kill plants and I heard a woman recently who said that wind turbines cause to much wind.
With people like that it makes me wonder if I haven’t fallen down the rabbit hole.
frednk@71
Oops… my NSW background is showing!
I lived a few years near the Sydney South sub-station at Picnic Point. Lots of 330kV and 220kV lines running into it.
A lot of people just don’t pay attention to politics. We all know these people. Only really potent stories make it through to them, like the knighthoods traincrash, the BB helicopter rorting and Abbott’s slash and burn budget.
A Christmas economics report delivered in a sleep-inducing monotone with a handful of savings nibbles and a lame analogy is not going to cut through Star Wars or linger in people’s minds. A boring economics report is probably exactly what people want to hear from their government after years of non-stop drama.
A lot of people don’t care about the politics, they just want someone in charge who seems pretty much sensible and respectable. MYEFO is good ammo to start to change the narrative and do some damage to the Liberal “economic management” myth, but it’s too little too soon.
[
bemused
Posted Tuesday, December 15, 2015 at 10:06 pm | Permalink
frednk@71
….
Oops… my NSW background is showing!
I lived a few years near the Sydney South sub-station at Picnic Point. Lots of 330kV and 220kV lines running into it.
]
Picnic point is a 330KV/132KV substation; but close enough. NSW has very few 220kV lines.
frednk@76
OK, so the 330kV lines are easily identifiable by the type of tower, so all the rest would have been 132kV?
I am talking about back in the 1960s.
Labor seems to be just going through the motions of contesting the government of Australia. They are hoping that power will fall into their laps and the impetus of holding power will infuse them with Damascene clarity about how they’ll use it. They are repeating some of the mistakes of the Abbott-led Coalition in this regard. Even if they win, they are likely to do a poor job in government.
They need a complete overhaul of policy, personnel, party structures and culture. They are a somnolent party that is letting down the millions of people who would be better off with someone other than the Coalition in charge.
They bring ferocity and forensic diligence to the knucklehead ‘inside the Beltway’ stuff like Brough and Slipper but are nowhere to be found on the issues that determine quality of life in this country: fulfilling the government’s responsibility to ensure full employment; ensuring that social services and public infrastructure are funded to the full extent of the need, with the only constraint being the availability of real resources. The Labor Party that did great things for this country in the 1940s and 1970s was cannibalized in the early 1980s amid the rise of monetarism – the greatest and longest running public policy debacle of the postwar world.
Labor in its current form is not doing the job it was set up to do – which was to promote full employment and low levels of inequality of wealth and income. There is no point in supporting the empty symbol this once great party has become.
Vote Green or remake Labor. Don’t be cheerleader. The stakes are too high.
Nicholas@78
More greens bs.
78
Nicholas
Are you auditioning as a speechwriter for the NCC?
Nicholas
[ Vote Green or remake Labor. Don’t be cheerleader. ]
Vote Green or vote for a party that has a chance of being elected and doing something. Don’t be a cheeleader.
Nicholas@78
Didn’t bother reading all of it.
WarrenPeace@82
Turgid dross.
Labor want to win the next election, you can bank on it.
However, the situation we have here, as far as I can see, is that the Murdoch camp have succeeded in their now ritualistic dismembering of another Labor leader. It was a lot more subtle this time, mainly making out what a klutz Bill Shorten is, through various techniques such as shining a light on any missteps he makes and putting it on the front page of their papers. Like the car accident and the texting while driving incidents, just to name the most recent.
This cumulative drip, drip, drip effect has worn away at his credibility with the electorate, PLUS, and I am sick to death of this, every 2-bit, flea-bitten ‘comedian’ in Australia has taken it upon themselves to use Bill Shorten as their punching bag and for cheap yucks. So, as a result, the herd mentality has taken over and it’s gotten to the stage now where you wouldn’t want to be the one in your peer group, at work or at play, to stand up and stand out and say you like the guy. So his ratings go down and down and down. So do Labor’s due to the proximity effect.
Now it also is the case that, as someone commented earlier, when Labor were in power and the Deficit was
~$400Billion, all you ever heard being screamed from the rooftops was ‘Waste and Mismanagement!!’, even though the country was in the teeth of a financial typhoon called the GFC. However, otoh, now the Coalition are in power, it’s all, ‘poor things, we’ll just have to cut them heaps of slack because Iron Ore prices have fallen’ AND because the Coalition are the victims of their own wild success at talking down wages!
Sure Malcolm may not be the other guy, but as someone said to me the other day, “A monkey in silk is still a monkey”.
Inadequate responses are seemingly lauded as not catastrophic, so…yay!
Yet Labor are coming out with fully-costed and coherent policies and the electorate just go, ‘Meh!’
I. Just. Don’t. Get. It.
Well, I kind of do (see my first point & just imagine if Bill Shorten was lauded by the media instead of laughed at).
C@tmomma
[ However, the situation we have here, as far as I can see, is that the Murdoch camp have succeeded in their now ritualistic dismembering of another Labor leader. ]
And don’t forget that thanks to the LNP, Murdoch will soon control the ABC.
You ain’t seen nothin’ yet!
I imagine Nicholas is one of these types of Greens’ supporters:
https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/greens-reversal-on-callan-park-exposes-some-of-their-sillier-supporters,8493
Player One,
‘ And don’t forget that thanks to the LNP, Murdoch will soon control the ABC. ‘
I’ll just stop watching it if it happens. Who needs it anyway in this day and age with so many quality alternatives?
C@tmomma
[ I’ll just stop watching it if it happens. Who needs it anyway in this day and age with so many quality alternatives? ]
But … but … where else would we go for endless reruns of ‘Grand Designs’ and ‘Antiques Roadshow’?
Curse you Mal!
The fact that she is a senior executive for a Murdoch media company suggests weak to non-existent commitment to the values of public broadcasting. On the positive side her father and grandfather wrote some of the best folk music in history. She could put ABC staff at ease by referring to them as her people.
Nicholas, stop yanking our chain! No way is Michelle Guthrie related to Arlo Guthrie or Woody Guthrie!!
C@tmomma@90
Arlo Guthrie, believe it or not, is a Republican. Go figure.
And Michelle Guthrie is a Sydneysider:
‘ Born in Sydney in 1965, Guthrie studied law and arts at the University of Sydney before becoming a lawyer for Allen, Allen & Hemsley specialising in media and technology.’
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/michelle-guthrie-abcs-preferred-new-boss-not-afraid-of-failure-20151215-glo7as.html#ixzz3uOJ6udBR
Oh well, that is the ABC royally screwed.
David Pope on the Release of the MYFEO:
As I told the UN Security Council this spring, what inspires the most lethal assailants in the world today is not so much the Quran or religious teachings but rather a thrilling cause and a call to action that promises glory and esteem in the eyes of friends. Foreign volunteers for the Islamic State are often youth in transitional stages in their lives – immigrants, students, people between jobs and before finding their mates. Having left their homes, they seek new families of friends and fellow travellers to find purpose and significance.
France’s Centre for the Prevention of Sectarian Drift Related to Islam estimates that 80 per cent come from non-religious families; West Point’s Center for Combating Terrorism finds that their average age is 25. For the most part, they have no traditional religious education and are ‘born again’ to religion through the jihad. About one in four, often the fiercest followers, are converts. Self-seekers who have found their way to jihad reach out through private gatherings or the internet. They might be people who feel uncomfortable with binge-drinking or casual sex, or have seen their parents humiliated by employers or the government, or their sisters insulted for wearing a headscarf. Most do not follow through to join the jihad, but some do. More than 80 per cent who join the Islamic State do so through peer-to-peer relationships, mostly with friends and sometimes family. Very few join in mosques or through recruitment by anonymous strangers.
Sorry, link for excerpt :
https://aeon.co/essays/all-revolutions-are-born-in-terror-can-this-one-be-stopped
Dont know how others manage with an ipad but I find editing of post and adding link to same post impossible!!
iPads are great for reading the newspaper in bed but I need an external keyboard to write a lengthy post. I can just attach links but it’s hard work
Good morning Dawn Patrollers.
Treasury calls the housing boom to be over.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/the-economy/myefo-budget-update-treasury-calls-it–housing-boom-over-20151215-glo334.html
All LA schools shut down as a result of one email. This is what happens when a country is super-suspicious.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/all-los-angeles-schools-closed-for-the-day-after-unspecified-threat-20151215-glog0g.html
Half of all baby formula sold in Australian supermarkets is going overseas. (It’s impossible to make any sense out of the graph in the article!) And the price has gone up.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/half-baby-formula-bought-from-aussie-supermarkets-being-sent-overseas-20151214-glnmd2.html
Stop the boats – stop the budget.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/myefo-budget-update-1-billion-blow-out-on-immigration-detention-costs-20151215-glnydh.html
Surely we are not getting ripped off by petrol suppliers!
http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/motorists-are-getting-pumped-on-petrol-prices-accc-20151214-glnll6.html
The Republican establishment is shit scared about what will happen in an upcoming Trump vs Cruz debate.
http://www.smh.com.au/world/for-donald-trump-and-ted-cruz-last-debate-of-2015-has-real-stakes-20151215-gloakd.html
Peter Martin says Morrison believes we can’t handle the whole truth yet. And he talks of the “zombie savings” that are still in MYEFO.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/myefo-budget-update-scott-morrison-believes-we-cant-handle-the-whole-truth-just-yet-20151215-glo3lr.html
More from Lenore Taylor on the “unrealistic” savings.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/dec/15/myefo-budget-banks-on-unrealistic-139bn-savings-blocked-by-senate
Stephen Koukoulas exposes the Coalition’s bullshit on who is big on spending and big on tax.
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2015/dec/15/what-a-turn-up-for-the-books-a-big-spending-big-taxing-liberal-party
Will Centrelink be able to realise the MYEFO target overpayment recoveries without causing to much damage to individuals and the government’s standing.?
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/myefo-budget-update-welfare-crackdown-raises-concerns-20151215-glntf6.html
Section 2 . . .
Meanwhile Centrelink’s IT woes continue apace.
http://www.canberratimes.com.au/it-pro/government-it/centrelink-apologises-for-web-welfare-shutdown-20151215-glnyg2.html
The AMA is right – Turnbull is continuing to introduce copayments by stealth.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/turnbull-government-introduces-copayment-by-stealth-doctors-say-20151215-glob9j.html
And more stealthy stuff with bracket creep!
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/bracket-creep-is-a-tax-increase-by-stealth-20151214-glnerr.html
Woolworths admit they got it wrong with their rewards program.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com.au/2015/12/15/woolworths-qantas-rewards_n_8808330.html?utm_hp_ref=australia
Abortion by coat hanger is not a thing of the past in the US.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/dec/15/wire-coat-hanger-abortion-stories-united-states
It seems Turnbull was “aghast” at the Darwin port sale.
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-aghast-at-darwin-port-sale-a-week-before-it-was-announced-20151215-glntby.html
Ross Gittins with a very interesting economic view of the evolution of modern marriage.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-evolving-heart-of-modern-marriage-20151215-glnoh9.html
Qantas is doing well by retaining fuel surcharges as the price of fuel tumbles.
http://www.smh.com.au/business/aviation/this-chart-explains-why-qantas-is-suddenly-killing-it-20151214-glnmeq.html
Apparently Pell is somewhat apprehensive about his Royal Commission appearance. Here’s a report on yesterday’s hearing.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/cardinal-george-pell-was-worried-about-upcoming-royal-commission-testimony-20151215-glnvbc.html
Cop that Apple!
http://www.smh.com.au/business/banking-and-finance/big-banks-opt-for-android-over-apple-pay-20151215-glo0ts.html