BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Coalition

Malcolm Turnbull and his government take a bit of a knock on this week’s poll aggregate readings, while remaining in a well and truly commanding position.

The Coalition loses a coat of paint or two in this week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, as last week’s strong result from ReachTEL washes out of the system and only relatively modest results from Newspoll and Essential Research emerge to take its place. The two-party trendline shown on the sidebar is now pointing downwards for the first time on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch. However, this has only made one point of difference to the seat projection, with Labor making a gain in New South Wales. There are new results on leadership ratings this week from both Newspoll and Essential, the former of which was fairly soft for Malcolm Turnbull by his standards. That causes a slight dip in his net satisfaction reading, although there’s no movement on preferred prime minister.

Preselection news:

• The Fairfax papers report that Bronwyn Bishop remains determined to seek another term as member for the blue-ribbon Sydney seat of Mackellar, despite her 73 years and downward career trajectory. The report says that the party’s hard Right faction has “abandoned Mrs Bishop over her perceived treachery against Mr Abbott, but it has little sway in Mackellar and it remains to be seen whether the left and centre right factions will use their numbers to protect her from challenge at preselection”. She appears likely to face a challenge from Jason Falinksi, chief executive of a health care supplier and a former Warringah councillor, whose party activities included the then-important job of campaign manager to Malcolm Turnbull when he first ran in Wentworth in 2004. Others mentioned are Jim Longley, who held the state seat of Pittwater from 1986 to 1996, and whose name comes up intermittently in relation to a possible comeback; Paul Nettelbeck, marketing director at Southern Cross College; and the one confirmed starter, Bill Calcraft, a businessman and former national rugby union player.

• The ABC reports the Nick Xenophon Team has unveiled its first tranche of five candidates for the next election, and taken the advantage of the opportunity to emphasise the national scale of its ambitions. Only two of the five are seats in South Australia, the only state where it stands to be seriously competitive. Matthew Wright, an emergency physician at the Flinders Medical Centre, will run against Christopher Pyne in Sturt, while Mayo MP Jamie Briggs will have to face one of his former staffers – Rebekha Sharkie, who has also worked for state Liberal MPs Isobel Redmond and Rachel Sanderson. The other three are Marie Rowland, a psychologist and counsellor, who will run in Tony Abbott’s Sydney seat of Warringah; Nancy Bassett, a consultant to Challenge Mining, who will run against Kelly O’Dwyer in the Melbourne seat of Higgins; and Josie Townsend, a “former publicist who now runs a marketing business specialising in start-up businesses”, who will run in the Toowoomba-based Queensland seat of Groom against Ian Macfarlane, who recently defected from the Liberal Party to the Nationals, although both are under the Liberal National Party umbrella in Queensland for electoral purposes.

• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports seven candidates have emerged for the Labor preselection to succeed Kelvin Thomson in the inner northern Melbourne seat of Wills: Mehmet Tillem, who held a Senate seat in 2013 and 2014 and now works for Victorian Small Business Minister Philip Dalilakis; Josh Funder, a funds manager and former Yarra councillor; Anna-Maria Arabia, policy director to Bill Shorten; Peter Khalil, a former SBS executive; a funds manager and former Yarra councillor; and two Moreland councillors, Lambros Tapinos and Meghan Hopper. I had a good deal more to say about the situation in Wills in a piece for Crikey last week.

• Also from me in Crikey: a post-match report on the North Sydney by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,015 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Coalition”

Comments Page 2 of 41
1 2 3 … 41

  1. [Most of your posts just call me names, so I tend to ignore them..]

    So, having ignored posts, why do you assume that certain arguments haven’t been made?

    I think assuming that people behave in certain ways because they belong to a certain group is…prejudice.

  4. Bemused you wont be happy ABC news 7 am Perth ran with a story at the top of the news.

    Two points to the story

    I) Govt will be billions and billions of dollars in debt a ‘leaked’ document says ‘if nothing changes’
    II) WA treasurer says only fair efficient way to bridge this gap is with the GST.

    I know bemused you haven’t been conditioned to believe this but I reckon your average voter is. Labor doesn’t have the economic credibility or leader to change this thinking. All it can do is harm minimisation but it has to win to do that.

  6. If the police have evidence of a terrorist threat, then they should be able to arrest those they have targeted as terrorists.

    The age of the boys is irrelevant. Fifteen year olds can shoot guns and plant bombs. The 15 year old that murdered the Police Accountant recently is testament to that.

    Of course, the evidence needs to be tested.

    I support the police in their endeavours to protect the community.

  10. One step closer to ICAC being able to release its report into political donations pre 2011 election

    [smh: RT MWhitbourn: BREAKING: Ex Newcastle mayor Jeff McCloy has LOST legal bid to force #ICAC commissioner to step aside from political do…]

  11. [One a fifteen year old boy!

    AFP still arresting teenagers? Great work, guys – I feel so much safer!]

    A radicalised fifteen year old boy killed Curtis Cheng before he was killed in turn by police, no doubt to the great grief of his family.

    I don’t know the circumstances of this arrest, but a simplistic response to the arrest of someone simply because they are the same age as the boy who murdered Mr Cheng is not warranted.

  13. Hmm, three/four of us all thinking along the same lines.

    I have some scepticism about how these raids are happening and how they are announced. But there is no doubt that there is a real threat out there, as evidenced by the multiple attacks already carried out in Australia by radicalised young people and those who have gone to fight for Syria.

  14. Turnbull/Morrison will never get away with an increase in GST.

    After a disastrous MYEFO reflecting Hockey’s bumbling incompetence, Turnbull/Morrison will be struggling bigtime.

  16. morning all

    Been out and about this morning, and saw the Herald Sun front page. What a bloody shocker.

    The whole page in BIG letters refers to the cancellation of east west link

    DAN’S 1.1 BILLION DOLLAR CON

    What a bloody outrage. The con was perpetrated by the Fiberals before the election. The Herald Sun really shits my liver

  19. Lizzie

    [Hmm, three/four of us all thinking along the same lines.

    Oh dear, the Lomax will be wallowing in that!]

    Lomax has no problem with people thinking along the same lines as long as he (?) laid down the tracks.

  22. [Turnbull/Morrison will never get away with an increase in GST.]

    Given that Morrison has made clear he will only countenance a broadening/increase in the GST if the States and Territories get no benefit, either this is a way of putting it to bed once and for all or Morrison is off his tree.

    As to which one it is – 50/50 straight down the line.

  23. vic,

    I said there was no new evidence produced and that there was no justification for Brough to stand aside.

    Since then, Brough denied what he said on 60 Minutes which is always interesting when you have the video, we’ve had much speculation about Turnbull’s judgement and this morning you have Roy using shifty words.

    At this stage there is plenty of political heat. However, still no clear narrative of who did what, when, who paid and whether anything illegal has occurred.

    So, while I’m interested in watching for the new evidence to emerge and always enjoy Libs on the rotisserie of media and political roasting, there still isn’t anything legally compelling that should force Brough or anybody to step down.

    This may change.

  24. I see no value or worth in the opinions of anyone who derogatively refers to Labor supporters as ‘rusted ons’. It is juvenile and suggests an inbuilt predisposition to devalue the opinion of said ‘rusted ons’. Plus it suggests that that person is a pretentious twerp.

  25. It’s the nice slow drip drip drip that is good for Labor with Ashby. If Brough does stand aside this week (better hurry up) then a lot of heat will go out of it over Christmas. If he hangs on then the media certainly look like they think there might be a chance of blood come February so they’ll keep asking questions and looking further afield (today with Roy finally being asked questions).

    Perfect situation for Labor (short of the AFP finally getting around to laying charges).

  26. Didn’t I read in one of the Ashby tweets that Karen (was that her name?) was asked to make copies of some dates in the diary for Steve Lewis?

    If so, Brough et al can fall back on the specific denials, which I suspect they are doing. Lots of lawyerly parsing of language going on.

  28. [there still isn’t anything legally compelling that should force Brough or anybody to step down.]

    Forget what the law actually is if you can’t see what is wrong with staff stealing and distributing documents from constitutional officers you need new glasses.

  29. Lorax

    Labor has talked about abolishing fossil fuel subsidies while in opposition. The only time they have failed to do so is while in government. If the right wing faction of Labor did not exist, I am sure they would abolish diesel fuel rebates in office to.

    So no, Labor will not be abolishing diesel fuel rebates any time soon, even after they gain government again, some time after 2019. Sadly.

  30. You do not need to be a Rhodes Scholar to realise that this man is mad:
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/dec/10/tony-abbott-calls-on-western-nations-to-consider-ground-troops-in-war-on-isis

    At this pint I doubt if even Dyson Heydon could find any merit in Abbott’s argument.

    Clearly a million dead in Iraq was insufficient to teach Abbott the folly of invading distant countries in an unstable region, without any idea of how a stable government could be formed afterwards.

  31. GG (and others)

    [ If the police have evidence of a terrorist threat, then they should be able to arrest those they have targeted as terrorists. ]

    Sure, but you are all missing the point. I’ll try to make it clearer …

    Why do the police arrest 15 year olds? Because they can. I believe kids under 15 can’t be arrested without a court order (which they would never get), nor can they (currently) be put under terrorism control orders.

    So do the AFP wait outside their houses until they turn 15? And what do they do with the 14 year olds they may swoop up in the same raids? They let them go, of course! But why? Can you not be as radicalized at 14 as you are at 15? Of course you can!

    And how many of these “arrests” of teenagers result in any serious charges? None that I am aware of. Perhaps some minor charges you could probably level against any 15 year old you picked off the streets at random.

    So does anyone seriously think that arresting teenagers is making us safer? Or is it in fact encouraging the radicalization of our youth? I strongly believe the latter.

    And would we make it any better by lowering the age at which you can arrest or detain someone (which is what the Libs are proposing)? Of course not! This was my original point, which I tried to make with humour, but perhaps I didn’t make clear enough … or perhaps you were too busy being afraid of “terrorists!” to comprehend.

    Seriously, Australia is becoming a sad country, so afraid of itself that it can no longer see how silly this is all getting.

  34. C@t
    There is not reason to object to the term “rusted on” if in fact you are an ALP member and 99% of the time vote that way. It is a reasonable term to use to describe those who are unlikely ever to change their vote.

    I think what bothers posters such as Lorax is what appears to be a myopic view of the ALP and Shorten in particular that “everything is rosy” and “all will come good by election day.” Now clearly while it is possible that things will pick up for labor, only a “rusted on” with severe myopia and probably glaucoma as well, could hosestly say things are going well.

    Turnbull took three hits this week, from Paris, from Brough, from McFarlane and his polling has fallen. However a look at the data suggests (not proves just suggests) that this vote has bypassed labor and gone directly to Greens. Now this is what I would expect as a “Paris” effect, ie those interested in Climate change have accepted that Turnbull will do nothing on the issue and have reverted to greens voting. I do not think we have yet seen fall out from Brough or McFarlane in the polling. If we do I suspect that people bothered by the “disunity” factors will go to minor parties first ie not Labor.

    However on the positive side, Turnbull has some dangerous shoals ahead – Brough, Morrison, Nationals and Abbott. I expect the Morrison and the GST to generate a big shift towards Labor.

  35. Socrates

    I doubt that Abbott has ever thought about what might happen after his flailing aggression. I think he’d simply leave the country to find another windmill to attack.

  36. WWP,

    At the moment, this Brough matter is a political matter being dealt with through our robust political argy bargy.

    I don’t believe people should lose their jobs or be stood aside on the basis of the biased political judgements of individuals and groups in society.

    If the AFP were to charge Brough or compelling evidence of crime then the situation changes.

    Thank goodness Australia is a country where the rule of law and order prevails.

  37. lizzie

    True. He needs a psychiatrist, not a publicist.

    Sorry for the jab about Labor and diesel rebates but the fact is, it and many other recommendations of the Henry tax review were dumped by Labor in government. There are good reasons why the credibility of senior figures is so low. Have a good day all.

  38. GG

    The smoking gun may never come out of the conspiracy to bring down Slipper., but to all observers it is fairly obvious that there was nefarious perpetrated by members of Parliament, who in fact hold portfolios.

  40. Re Victoria @65: I’ll see if the Heral Sun publishes this comment:

    This ‘con’ was perpetrated on the people of Victoria by the previous Government, which signed a secret deal binding a future Government into paying hundreds of millions for a freeway that the people of Victoria didn’t want and for which not an inch of paving layed. Good work Liberals

    If it does, I’ll add a further comment along the lines of what I said here yesterday, that Victoria should strengthen its ICAC and refer this whole episode to it.

  43. Socrtes

    [ You do not need to be a Rhodes Scholar to realise that this man is mad:
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/dec/10/tony-abbott-calls-on-western-nations-to-consider-ground-troops-in-war-on-isis ]

    Yes, Abbott is as mad as they come. Many of us already knew that. But it does leave Mal with an interesting dilemma – does he …

    1. Tolerate Abbott as a focus for the RWNJs, knowing that his (i.e. Mal’s) personal popularity is being significantly boosted by the sheer stark contrast between himself and this madman?

    2. Get rid of Abbott ASAP, because the electorate may begin to think the RWNJs have sufficient backing and influence to get the madman’s hands back on the reins of power?

    Jeez – I feel for you, Mal!

  44. P1,

    To be honest, I don’t see your point at all.

    If the AFP or whoever think there is a terrorist threat, they are obliged to stop it proceeding.

    The age of the perpetrators is irrelevant.

  46. [At the moment, this Brough matter is a political matter being dealt with through our robust political argy bargy.]

    Well if someone you trust gets hold of a personal email and uses it to destroy your life, without committing a crime I’m sure you’ll see things exactly the same way.

    I’m sure too you are totally opposed to the criminalisation of revenge p0rn.

  47. [I think what bothers posters such as Lorax is what appears to be a myopic view of the ALP and Shorten in particular that “everything is rosy” and “all will come good by election day.”]

    That’s because Lorax is like Henny Penny running around crying the sky is falling in.

    Many of us ‘rusted-ons’, including myself, think it is more likely that the Coalition under Turnbull will win the next election. However, there are serious problems within the Coalition that are being papered over – just – and are not being picked up by a general public grateful that we are no longer led by a dangerous and incompetent Prime Minister.

    Lorax and a couple of others have an obsession with changing the Labor leader to someone else who is not tested in the job and has not got a Turnbull or Hawke-like public profile that will make everyone sit up and cheer. It won’t work. It won’t make a difference. And, for my part, I’d rather have a Labor leader who actually does things rather than be a populist figure head. There are others who fit that bill, but none will improve Labor’s vote come election time over what Shorten can achieve.

    As for name-calling, I think Abbott’s ‘death cult’ was less tedious and more accurate than Lorax’s lemmings (which incorporates a glowering contempt for anyone who has a different view to him/her about the current Labor leadership).

  50. P1 @ 80

    I don’t get your point either.

    The rule of law prevails and the Police cannot arrest anyone without working within the law. Indeed, I understand that some who were arrested and released last year without charge have now been arrested again and held because of their alleged involvement in the murder of Curtis Cheng.

    It is a tough line between protecting the community and acting within the law. If you can arrest a 15 year old in circumstances where you cannot arrest a 14 year old you should not hold back from doing so. The law draws objective lines because it is too hard to draw subjective lines. Just look at the age of consent. Teenagers do not suddenly become competent to make decisions about sexual intercourse magically on the day they complete 16 years of life. But that is what the law says – because it cannot do otherwise without making the protection of young people from sexual predators impossible to enforce.

Comments Page 2 of 41
1 2 3 … 41

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *