BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Coalition

Malcolm Turnbull and his government take a bit of a knock on this week’s poll aggregate readings, while remaining in a well and truly commanding position.

The Coalition loses a coat of paint or two in this week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, as last week’s strong result from ReachTEL washes out of the system and only relatively modest results from Newspoll and Essential Research emerge to take its place. The two-party trendline shown on the sidebar is now pointing downwards for the first time on Malcolm Turnbull’s watch. However, this has only made one point of difference to the seat projection, with Labor making a gain in New South Wales. There are new results on leadership ratings this week from both Newspoll and Essential, the former of which was fairly soft for Malcolm Turnbull by his standards. That causes a slight dip in his net satisfaction reading, although there’s no movement on preferred prime minister.

Preselection news:

• The Fairfax papers report that Bronwyn Bishop remains determined to seek another term as member for the blue-ribbon Sydney seat of Mackellar, despite her 73 years and downward career trajectory. The report says that the party’s hard Right faction has “abandoned Mrs Bishop over her perceived treachery against Mr Abbott, but it has little sway in Mackellar and it remains to be seen whether the left and centre right factions will use their numbers to protect her from challenge at preselection”. She appears likely to face a challenge from Jason Falinksi, chief executive of a health care supplier and a former Warringah councillor, whose party activities included the then-important job of campaign manager to Malcolm Turnbull when he first ran in Wentworth in 2004. Others mentioned are Jim Longley, who held the state seat of Pittwater from 1986 to 1996, and whose name comes up intermittently in relation to a possible comeback; Paul Nettelbeck, marketing director at Southern Cross College; and the one confirmed starter, Bill Calcraft, a businessman and former national rugby union player.

• The ABC reports the Nick Xenophon Team has unveiled its first tranche of five candidates for the next election, and taken the advantage of the opportunity to emphasise the national scale of its ambitions. Only two of the five are seats in South Australia, the only state where it stands to be seriously competitive. Matthew Wright, an emergency physician at the Flinders Medical Centre, will run against Christopher Pyne in Sturt, while Mayo MP Jamie Briggs will have to face one of his former staffers – Rebekha Sharkie, who has also worked for state Liberal MPs Isobel Redmond and Rachel Sanderson. The other three are Marie Rowland, a psychologist and counsellor, who will run in Tony Abbott’s Sydney seat of Warringah; Nancy Bassett, a consultant to Challenge Mining, who will run against Kelly O’Dwyer in the Melbourne seat of Higgins; and Josie Townsend, a “former publicist who now runs a marketing business specialising in start-up businesses”, who will run in the Toowoomba-based Queensland seat of Groom against Ian Macfarlane, who recently defected from the Liberal Party to the Nationals, although both are under the Liberal National Party umbrella in Queensland for electoral purposes.

• Rick Wallace of The Australian reports seven candidates have emerged for the Labor preselection to succeed Kelvin Thomson in the inner northern Melbourne seat of Wills: Mehmet Tillem, who held a Senate seat in 2013 and 2014 and now works for Victorian Small Business Minister Philip Dalilakis; Josh Funder, a funds manager and former Yarra councillor; Anna-Maria Arabia, policy director to Bill Shorten; Peter Khalil, a former SBS executive; a funds manager and former Yarra councillor; and two Moreland councillors, Lambros Tapinos and Meghan Hopper. I had a good deal more to say about the situation in Wills in a piece for Crikey last week.

• Also from me in Crikey: a post-match report on the North Sydney by-election.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

2,015 comments on “BludgerTrack: 53.8-46.2 to Coalition”

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  1. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Waleed Aly cuts Bolt’s legs off on “The Project”.
    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/waleed-aly-takes-on-andrew-bolt-over-climate-change-let-me-nip-this-in-the-bud-20151210-gljuj1.html
    Oh, the poor petals!
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/education/mlc-private-sydney-girls-school-in-turmoil-after-30-staff-go-out-the-door-students-launch-petition-20151207-glhlv2.html
    This guy needs to take a good hard look at himself.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/salim-mehajer-brushes-off-cleaning-debt-20151209-glj9qh.html
    WANTED. A good Independent candidate for the seat of Mackellar.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bronwyn-bishop-wants-to-stay-in-parliament-to-fight-terrorism-20151209-gljgvy.html
    Abbott is getting under Turnbull’s skin.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/malcolm-turnbull-fires-back-at-tony-abbott-over-calls-for-revolution-within-islam-20151209-glj6bi.html
    Fraud seems to be growing at quite a rate.
    http://www.smh.com.au/business/consumer-affairs/inside-job-bosses-funding-flash-lifestyles-the-biggest-fraudsters-20151209-glj3wz.html
    This QC says the NSW ICAC must get back to work.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-icac-must-be-allowed-to-get-back-to-business-20151209-glj9mi.html
    Abbott – the new friend of white supremacists.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/muslims-dont-need-western-cultural-supremacists-to-tell-them-what-islam-needs-20151208-glj0d9.html
    “Abbott has a cause, an audience and no restraints”, says Michelle Grattan.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/dec/09/gst-15-rise-would-hit-lowest-earners-hardest-latest-modelling-shows
    This SMH editorial urges the Liberal Party and Warringah electors to consider whether or not they want Abbott to stay in parliament.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/does-australia-want-tony-abbott-to-stay-in-parliament-20151208-glizja.html

  2. Section 2 . . .

    The Victorian Auditor-General has handed down an excoriating report on the debacle of the East West Link. (Isn’t this the project that Abbott was hold up to be a winner?)
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/east-west-link-its-a-mess-michael-obrien-much-of-it-is-your-fault-20151209-glj7lw.html
    The latest modelling from the PBO shows that a 15% GST would affect low income earners the most. Surprise, surprise!
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/dec/09/gst-15-rise-would-hit-lowest-earners-hardest-latest-modelling-shows
    Stephen Koukoulas reckons Labor could offer good value for punters.
    http://thekouk.com/blog/as-turnbull-s-gloss-fades-are-labor-the-better-bet.html
    What say do our elected representatives have in a decision for us to go to war?
    https://theconversation.com/what-say-do-our-elected-representatives-have-in-going-to-war-51860
    Peter Martin says that by the time the government puts its tax options on the table it’s likely a 15% GST won’t be on it.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/off-the-table-why-the-gst-wont-be-lifted-to-15-per-cent-20151209-gljold.html
    A re-energised Labor is finding ways to exploit the tensions appearing in the Coalition.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2015/12/09/re-energised-alp-takes-govt-task-gst-abbott/
    “View from the Street” has some fun with Abbott. Again.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/smh-editorial/does-australia-want-tony-abbott-to-stay-in-parliament-20151208-glizja.html
    Donald Trump is acting as a wick to bring the underlying racism of much of America to the surface. He’s also making a mess of the Republican Party which is splitting in all directions.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/donald-trump-is-giving-voice-to-angry-america-20151208-gliwpj.html
    Bob Ellis on the last seven days marking the week that the gloss came off Turnbull.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/12/09/seven-days/
    The leaks. The leaks. Was Turnbull telling porkies about MacFarlane’s dropping from the ministry?
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/leaked-talking-points-admit-liberal-defector-macfarlane-disappointed-not-to-be-reappointed-to-cabinet-20151209-glj650.html

  11. I’m not sure Labor is ‘re energised’ so much as that they have (rightly and sensibly) switched tactics now Abbott has gone.

    Low key and bland was the best way to handle Abbott (punching marshmallows gets frustrating); being agile, optimistic and innovative is the way to handle Turnbull.

  15. Catherine King

    [Just last month the government acknowledged that healthier eating was critical to its national diabetes strategy, yet at the same time, continues to advocate for a change to the tax system that will completely undermine this by making healthier food more expensive.

    The total annual cost impact of diabetes in Australia is already estimated at $14.6bn. How much worse will this get as the obesity crisis grows?

    For a government that constantly complains about the growing cost of the health system, a GST on healthy food is an exceptionally dumb strategy that can only add to the health burden in coming years.

    A government that really was serious about making the health system more efficient and cost-effective would cease its attacks on primary care, invest in preventive health and, above all, not be making it harder and more expensive for Australians to lose weight and have healthy diet by imposing a great big new tax on fresh food.]

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/dec/09/a-gst-on-fresh-food-is-an-exceptionally-dumb-strategy-in-the-midst-of-an-obesity-crisis

  17. [..the latest Newspoll results align with most of the other opinion polls that suggest Labor’s overall support is holding up surprisingly well against the Turnbull charm offensive.]

    [..Mr Turnbull and the Government’s recent polling success is at least partly due to voters’ relief at having a Liberal Prime Minister who is polite, articulate and intelligent.

    However, the PM’s propensity to somewhat patronisingly over-explain has led to the term “Malsplaining” being coined in political circles
    ..]

    [..Labor has found a chink in PM Turnbull’s Teflon-coated armour, pressuring him to choose between loyalty to key numbers man Mal Brough, and defending himself against claims of poor judgement in appointing Mr Brough to the ministry in the first place.]

    http://thenewdaily.com.au/news/2015/12/08/labor-takes-aim-at-turnbull/#./?&_suid=14496927517030007566298539370964

    I would argue that Labor’s earlier efforts – whilst they may not have affected the polls, and I don’t believe that they were intended to – have done their job. They have established that Turnbull has little or no intention to change most of Abbott’s agenda, particularly in the areas that the voting public are most interested in. They have also made the word association “Malcolm Turnbull – Cayman Islands” in voter’s brains.

    btw, how are those posters who were arguing that Paris would provide an excuse for Turnbull to shift his policies on climate change holding up? Or are we still doing faith based politics?

  18. There are lies and prevarications everywhere: Hunt and Tourism Australia.

    [Hoegh-Guldberg, a professor and director of the Global Change Institute at the University of Queensland, cut off a question to the panel about the incompatibility of approving Adani’s $16bn proposed coalmine in Queensland and protecting the reef, saying the minister would answer it in his remarks after the screening. Hunt did not address the question, but in answer to a similar question earlier at the Paris conference claimed rejecting the mine would have amounted to “neo-colonialism” by Australia. He did mention Australia’s $140m “reef trust” to combat soil erosion, crown of thorns starfish and other threats.

    …A spokesman for Tourism Australia told Guardian Australia on Tuesday it had invested $1.5m to assist in the production of the series because it complemented a new campaign featuring Australia’s “aquatic and coastal experiences”.

    …But Atlantic Productions, the company that made the series, said Tourism Australia was wrong. “No Australian government funding went into the production of the BBC television series.

    …At the Paris screening, Hoegh-Guldberg asked Sir David what would happen if world leaders did not agree to limit warming to 1.5C because of the cost.

    “The expense of not doing it is gigantic,” the filmmaker said.

    “Seventy per cent of all fish species are dependent on the coral reef at some stage in their lives. If we were to lose coral reefs, the biological and ecological destruction of life in the ocean would be enormous and for those people who live on the coast and depend on fish for their food it would be a major loss.”]

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/dec/10/australia-on-spot-over-adani-mine-funding-attenborough-reef-series

  20. ZOOMSTER – I even wonder whether Turnbull’s “Agile” and “Innovative” agenda and crapping on about start-ups is really going to help him – or confirm that he is really just part of a small clique.

  23. From BK’s link re ICAC, it is a bit unedifying having one retired Supreme Court judge, Anthony Whealy, criticising another retired Supreme Court judge, David Levine, concerning his criticism of a present Supreme Court judge, Megan Latham.

    Whealy is the most eminent having sat on all the large terror trials and been promoted to the Court of Appeal. Plus he looks like movie buff, Bill Collins.

  24. The $64k question is – what is to happen in Warringah. It’s evident that Abbott is presently running at full speed – either seriously, or in order to slot in the conservatives’ favourite replacement for him when the time comes. Perhaps there is another Rhodes scholar in the wings – maybe wanting to swap from another seat. If we are to have any chance of rational policy development for this country, Turnbull needs to forestall all such efforts.

  25. Read this, conservatives, from Arnie Schwarzenegger:

    Re the the fossil fuels industry: “I don’t want to be the last investor in Blockbuster as Netflix emerged.”

    Thats right – fossil fuels means LOSING YOUR SHIRT MATE.

    http://www.businessinsider.com.au/i-dont-give-a-if-we-agree-arnold-schwarzeneggers-epic-rant-about-climate-change-2015-12

    Throw Adanai in the bin where it belongs. the idea that ‘the economy = fossil fuels’ is strictly for losers now.

  26. Aww. trump missed out on Time Person of the Year –

    [ Donald J. Trump
    ✔
    @realDonaldTrump

    I told you @TIME Magazine would never pick me as person of the year despite being the big favorite They picked person who is ruining Germany ]

  27. I wonder how the State Treasurers feel making their way to Canberra for a masterclass in ignorant arrogance and hubris:

    [Thursday’s meeting has no formal agenda and will be a treasurers-only meeting focused on state taxes. Mr Morrison will use it to tell the states they are capable of fixing their budget problems themselves without help from an expanded goods and services tax.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/gst-rise-all-but-dead-as-scott-morrison-says-he-wont-prop-up-states-budgets-20151209-glj426.html#ixzz3trezQFqY

  29. [UK Petition To Ban Trump From Entry Gets Enough Signatures To Be Debated By Parliament]

    Why would Trump want to go to the UK when he knows so much about it by just sitting on his toupee in New York?

  30. zoomster @ 17:

    Labor’s overall support is holding up surprisingly well against the Turnbull charm offensive.

    That is demonstrably untrue. According to Bludgertrack Labor’s primary vote is at 30.8% down 2.6% on the 2013 drubbing.

    how are those posters who were arguing that Paris would provide an excuse for Turnbull to shift his policies on climate change holding up?

    I have already expressed my disappointment about Turnbull’s unwillingness to change Abbott’s climate change policies, especially his refusal to move on fossil fuel subsidies such as the diesel rebate for miners. TBH, Turnbull has more power than he knows at the moment.

  31. The Lorax

    ‘surprising’ is Dragonista’s sentiment. Whether one finds Labor’s overall support ‘surprising’ or not is a matter of individual opinion – it can’t be ‘demonstrably untrue’ because it depends on individual expectations.

    So, for example, if Dragonista expected a Turnbull accension would see Labor’s primary vote back at 28% levels (which is was not so far back in the past) then to her, the result is surprising.

    I can only assume that you were expecting Labor to be polling much better against Turnbull.

    [TBH, Turnbull has more power than he knows at the moment.]

    Not really. His power isn’t dependant on voters and polling; it is purely the gift of the party room.

    You are still assuming, of course, that Turnbull wants to move on these issues – which is what I mean when I refer to ‘faith based’ politics.

  32. zoomster, my faith is that were Turnbull to be made dictator then yes he would change Abbott’s climate change policies. Equally, freed from the constraints of public opinion, I believe most of the Labor Party would support more compassionate policies towards refugees.

  33. [freed from the constraints of public opinion]

    Unfortunately, “public opinion” translates to votes, and the public seem to feel threatened by refugees atm. One of the legacies of the Abbott era (and when will it end? 😛 ).

  34. The Borax

    [ zoomster, my faith is that were Turnbull to be made dictator then yes he would change Abbott’s climate change policies. ]

    It’s finally dawned on me that you must be the latest incarnation of Mod Lib, still panting over Turnbull.

  35. z@16,

    “They have also made the word association “Malcolm Turnbull – Cayman Islands” in voter’s brains”.

    As you might expect I disagree that the attacks on Turnbull are in any way advantageous to Labor.

    The polls seemed to surge to the Libs when Datsyari made these claims some weeks ago. I notice that Labor STFU about this issue and Sam has been locked in a closet for awhile.

    There is no credible evidence that if there is a connection between Turnbull and Cayman Island that it is a negative perception.

    Of course, the class warriors and the envious see it as a sure winner. But, I have my doubts of its efficacy as tactic. I also read that people are sick and tired of traducing political opponents rather than their judgement and their policies.

    But, I’m sure others will have a different view.

  36. Player One

    Are we really getting down to calling other posters whom you may not agree with by changing their screen name?

    Pretty childish for mine!

  38. Judgment in the claim by McCloy, property developer, that ICAC conducted the inquiry against him unfairly (in a biased way) will be delivered within 30 minutes.

    Readers will recall that McCloy unsuccessfully challenged, in the High Court, the constitutional validity of the donation laws in NSW which prohibit his ilk form giving money to candidates in any form (brown paper bags etc).

  39. And while we’re at it, lets see a Labor rusted-on stand up and say that paying a pension to a retired couple with $1.15 million in savings and investments outside the family home is ridiculous and grossly unfair.

  40. [Which Labor rusted-on here will think for themselves and say that if we’re serious about climate change fossil fuel subsidies have to end?
    ]

    Well, several of them have, and it seems to have made no impression on you.

  43. MTBW

    [ Are we really getting down to calling other posters whom you may not agree with by changing their screen name?

    Pretty childish for mine! ]

    Childish is a perfectly appropriate response to Borax posts.

  44. The Borax

    [ And while we’re at it, lets see a Labor rusted-on stand up and say that paying a pension to a retired couple with $1.15 million in savings and investments outside the family home is ridiculous and grossly unfair. ]

    Many Labor supporters here – including me – have recommended reform in areas such as this.

    Do you ever actually read other people’s posts?

  45. TBA still seems upset about proposals for compensation to partly offset any GST increase. I have to ask did he notice that TurnbullAbbottTurnbull are still paying compensation for a tax that doesn’t exist, after axing everything else with any connection to the carbon price or mining tax? Hmmm now why is that deficit blowing out when you want to have that $550 and eat it too?

  47. Lorax

    [And while we’re at it, lets see a Labor rusted-on stand up and say that paying a pension to a retired couple with $1.15 million in savings and investments outside the family home is ridiculous and grossly unfair.]

    I’m not a Labor “rusted on”, I make my decisions according to declared policies at election time, so I suppose you won’t take any notice of me, but I agree with your statement.

    You would receive less aggro from posters if your statements didn’t contain so many generalised attacks on ‘all bludgers’.

  48. Hey guys, just a few points.

    Labor left sources in the seat of Wills have given me the indication that they are lining up behind Anna Maria Arabia, due to the fact that she’s the most plausible option behind Tillem and that she has worked for Anthony Albanese.

    It will be interesting to see what happens in Mayo and Sturt. NXT seem to be the reborn Democrats, in an ideological sense, considering they have such a presence in SA which was the Democrats best state by far. Considering that, Mayo was once the best Democrat seat in the country, and nearly won it. It is now the best Green seat in SA. If Sharkie presents a socially progressive independent liberal she’s in with a real chance.

  49. [ Well, several of them have, and it seems to have made no impression on you. ]

    Zoom. The Borax demonstrates well the habit of conservative wankers to fantasize and ignore anything that doesn’t fit their worldview. Sad really.

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