There’s been a fair bit of polling in the past week, from Newspoll, ReachTEL and Essential Research on voting intention, plus a leadership ratings phone poll from Morgan. Pretty much all of it has been good news for the Coalition, and especially for Malcolm Turnbull. The BludgerTrack poll aggregate accordingly finds the Coalition lead picking up yet further, by 0.9% on two-party preferred and four on the national seat projection, which includes two from Queensland and one each from Victoria and Western Australia. However, this is small beer compared with the movement on leadership ratings, with Turnbull recording roughly double-digit improvements in his already commanding position on both net approval and preferred prime minister a result of very strong numbers from Newspoll, and positively spectacular ones from Roy Morgan.
Two state by-elections will be held on Saturday in Victoria, which you can read about here, and December 5 has been set for the federal by-election to replace Joe Hockey in North Sydney, which you can read about here. All are Liberal seats that stand to be uncontested by Labor.
Calla Wahlquist of The Guardian reports three candidates have come forward for Labor preselection in the newly created seat of Burt in Perth’s south-eastern suburbs, which as conceived in the recent draft redistribution has a notional Liberal margin of 4.8%. The presumed front-runner is Matt Keogh, the Right-backed lawyer who ran unsuccessfully at the Canning by-election on September 18. However, he will face opposition from Gosnells councillor Pierre Yang who will have the backing of the Left, according to a report from Joe Spagnolo of the Sunday Times and Lisa Griffiths, a medical scientist at Sir Charles Gairdner Hospital who ran in the nearby seat of Darling Range at the 2008 state election.
A Nationals preselection to choose a successor to Bruce Scott in the safe pastoral Queensland seat of Maranoa has been won by David Littleproud, manager of a Suncorp bank branch in Warwick and the son of Brian Littleproud, a Nationals member of state parliament from 1983 to 2001. Other candidates were Cameron O’Neil, a Maranoa councillor who works for the Queensland Disaster Management Committee, and had been spoken of as Littleproud’s strongest rival; Lachlan Douglas, southern Queensland regional manager for Rabobank; Alison Krieg, a grazier from Blackall; and Rick Gurnett, a grazier from Charleville.
The ABC reports candidates for Liberal Senate preselection in Tasmania include Jonathan Duniam, chief-of-staff to Premier Will Hodgman, and Sally Chandler, an employee of the Tasmanian Chamber of Commerce and Industry. They will compete for positions with the number one and number two candidates from 2010, Eric Abetz and Stephen Parry.
Adam Carr at Psephos now has complete historical state election results for Victoria on his site, going back to the very first elections for positions on the Legislative Council in 1843. As a resource for electorate-level results extending deep into the mists of history, it joins David Barry’s highly sophisticated federal election results site; the complete historical New South Wales state election results archive developed by Antony Green and maintained by the state parliament website; Tasmanian historical results back to 1909 on the state parliament website; and electorate-level results for Queensland going back to 1932 on Wikipedia. However, things are very barren in the case of Western Australia and South Australia, for which the best thing is Psephos’s electorate results going back to the mid-1990s. UPDATE: Kirsdarke in comments notes the Wikipedia oompa-loompas have also worked their way back to 1956 in Western Australia and 1950 in South Australia, without me having noticed.
2,186 comments on “BludgerTrack: 52.8-47.2 to Coalition”
Yes there you go again the personal attack to imply I am crazy.
Get back to me when you are wiling to address reality.
The GFC had the largest impact on emission.]
The most recent large impact on emissions occurred after the repeal of the ETS. Emission growth has resumed again after falling while the ETS was in place.
The Liberals have a policy on the climate that will ensure ongoing capital obliteration. Their policies favour the annihilation of income and, with that, the jobs and the living standards associated with those jobs.
The Liberals have a policy on the climate amounts to a form of economic self-mutilation.
Tony Windsor @TonyHWindsor Oct 31
NBN and Climate Change are the two issues where politics should have been put aside . This is part of Abbotts divisive legacy.
They had to bring out Macfarlane:
The pathetic reply is liquid throwing worthy.
John Menadue wrote this for today’s edition of Crikey. It’s very apt. It reminds me of the useful idiots who confect excuses for metadata laws.
guytaur @2100 and with less than 10% of the national vote she will be ignored.
@abcnews: Australian Medical Association accuses Federal Health Minister of “unprecedented” politicisation of review https://t.co/EipVz8CrVr #auspol
brieflt @2102 “capital obliteration” – is this the latest Green AGW Catastrophist Meme?
What Capital is being obliterated?
Many voices are saying the same thing. Turnbull did not advocate for a GST. Just talked about fair taxation.
AS GST is regressive that must mean no GST. Its not a fair tax.
The Whinger and his hatred.
The coward didn’t fight the election because he knew he would be smashed.
He retired on his Coal Mine Funded retirement and wants us to take him seriously on AGW?
[Puff, the Magic Dragon.
Posted Monday, November 2, 2015 at 2:22 pm | Permalink
I do not consider it is called being a the Disability Support Pension a ‘burden’. As an Australian, it is something I am proud of, and am happy to fund through taxation.
It is called ‘being a civilised society.’]
Only just saw that headline on a poster outside the newsagent. Made me very mad too Puff. I wondered why we don’t call all Gov expenditure a “Burden”. You know like the money we spent on politicians, building mega stadiums for already rich sporting codes, infrastructure for rich miners who are already ripping us off, defence spending etc. The burdens just go on & on. Why are we surrounded by short sighted mean spirited people.
You are a whinger who complains about A whinger.
End of Story.
grace pettigrew @broomstick33 13m13 minutes ago
#ALP Jason Clare insists now national asset #NBN has been destroyed by Turnbull, its too bad, cant be unpicked. Rubbish, nationalise #auspol
How much money we are wasting on new signs and Australian dictator flags?
Dept. Communications @CommsAu 4m4 minutes ago
New responsibilities requires a new sign! Welcome to the fold @artsculturegov
reach up and loosen the tin foil hat
you’ve tightened it a bit to tight.
@willowCatemoon: I wrote this over a year ago. As Murdoch media is rehashing their disabled burden article, this is still relevant.
[ Yes there you go again the personal attack to imply I am crazy.
Typical loser. ]
I suppose the irony of this comment is lost on you? Thought so.
You started the personal attacks not me. Reality Bites.
[ You started the personal attacks not me. ]
Really? So childish?
No one says the GST isn’t regressive by itself.
It does not operate alone. We have a massive tax and TRANSGFER system involving both cash and non-cash transfers – we have a very fair system.
@Qldaah: #qldpol Palaszczuk Govt says no to 15% GST – No agreement with Feds says @Curtis_Pitt_MP https://t.co/NnuubQeJZz
See a GST is not fair. I am sure Turnbull knows about the States position. This is why he is using words so he does not have to pursue the GST rise push.
Bill Shorten getting more bad advice re: Tax reform. He seems to think a Paul Keating-esque attack on the GST will boost Labor’s chances, but he’s no Keating, and Turnbull’s no Housten, and it won’t be a GST but a package.
It’s fascinating just how very inept Labor has been over the past month and a bit.
Also, Turnbull has now far past Gillard’s and Rudd’s honeymoon period.
guytaur @2121 don’t tell me Palas has made a decision?
Re: The States position, Turnbull will dress the GST rise in a nice little package which will include tax cuts and other relief packages, then seek a mandate at the next election. A majority will make the mandate clear, which will in turn the attention to the States. People have already started rumours that the Vic Premier will back down if Turnbull gets a mandate.
Rumours just as convincing as the ones that Andrews was going to back down over the EW link. Has not happened yet
[It’s fascinating just how very inept Labor has been over the past month and a bit.]
The LNP has been very inept in the past few days… Totally confused. There is a limit to how long you can pretend there will be a rise in the GST to those who want it, while simultaneously saying there won’t be to those who don’t.
Same problem for Turnbull on a whole range of policy.
Now I do expect the electorate to be more patient with Turnbull than me, but it can’t go on indefinitely. He certainly can’t survive a campaign standing for everything.
@GuardianAus: Malcolm Turnbull is everything Australia ever wanted | First Dog on the Moon https://t.co/5tBcrQuAz0
What Capital is being obliterated?]
Environmental and built capital. This is already discernible and measurable in fisheries, agriculture, forestry and in wilderness values. We can see the direct economic impacts of loss of habitat, loss of populations and loss of productivity in commercial fisheries in many places, including here in WA.
We can see the allied loss of built and financial capital.
This is what climate change does. It destroys capital.
Call me a cynic but I can’t help wondering if the announcement on knights and dames was dropped this morning as a diversion from the GST.
It was the top item this morning on some news websites I look at.
It’s fascinating just how very inept Labor has been over the past month and a bit.]
Yeah, fascinating. Labor brings down the worst PM in living memory and stops the Right in their tracks, yet this is construed as “inept”.
Labor is not finished. We will eject this worthless Liberal outfit from office.
And I won’t be at all surprised if “stoush with Flint” is the headline political story on the evening news… 🙂
As for actual policy? Inept!
One of the things I really liked about Abbott was how much the Lefties hated him – it made them soooo angry that he was voted in as PM.
Now I love the way Turnbull has the Lefties running in circles but- but -but – but – they don’t know which way to turn or how to combat him.
Rollback! You know it works!
When is Shorten going to roll out Rollback!?
[One of the things I really liked about Abbott was how much the Lefties hated him – it made them soooo angry that he was voted in as PM.]
So you must have been really sad when he didn’t last as long as Rudd or Gillard. That is funny.
Turnbull will have to stand for something sooner or later… At the moment I have nothing to “combat”.
briefly @2030 the climate is changing, naturally. How much of the changes that that you refer to are as a result of burning fossil fuels versus other natural and manmade impacts really is not at all clear.
[ Now I love the way Turnbull has the Lefties running in circles … ]
They have to do that because the Turncoat spins so much.
[When is Shorten going to roll out Rollback!?]
We need a change in GST policy before that can happen.
[ briefly @2030 the climate is changing, naturally. How much of the changes that that you refer to are as a result of burning fossil fuels versus other natural and manmade impacts really is not at all clear. ]
Yes it is. Do some reading.
Yes, you are right – at some point in the future the LNP will lose office. When, however, is a different matter.
[don’t tell me Palas has made a decision?]
That’s funny considering you love Turnbull because he isn’t making any decisions 🙂
Time does not matter. The Boats are stopped, the Mining Tax and the Gas Tax are gone. I’m just sad they failed on repealing s18c of the RDA – apart from that the LNP still are running the place and the Greens/ALP aren’t.
Shall I compare thee to a ……
briefly @2030 the climate is changing, naturally. How much of the changes that that you refer to are as a result of burning fossil fuels versus other natural and manmade impacts really is not at all clear.]
This is just nonsense. There is no doubt about the causes of climate change. None at all. What is all the more irritating is that the costs of averting climate change are so small.
Really, this is view of yours is an utter betrayal of those who comprise your most reliable supporters. The Liberals lie through their teeth to their most devoted followers.
Labor will solve this problem too, the same way they have always solved the great problems that have confronted this country and its people.
Compare me to whatever you like, when I read this thread the abusive posters instantly become less convincing.
[In the past agencies had to get a warrant to collect metadata on a particular person for a proper purpose. Now they can simply dip into a pre-existing trove of data on everybody.]
Actually that is incorrect. They haven’t needed to get a warrant for quite a few years. I think Rudd is to blame.
NASA study: Mass gains of Antarctic Ice Sheet greater than losses
A new NASA study says that an increase in Antarctic snow accumulation that began 10,000 years ago is currently adding enough ice to the continent to outweigh the increased losses from its thinning glaciers.
And I thought the Science was Settled!
Agree entirely. If Labor thinks it can do Keating-Houston GST redux from 1993, they’re kidding themselves – and yet that, I fear, is how panicked and desperate Shorten has become.
One of the things I really liked about Abbott was how much the Lefties hated him – it made them soooo angry that he was voted in as PM.
Now I love the way Turnbull has the Lefties running in circles but- but -but – but – they don’t know which way to turn or how to combat him.]
Labor can rely on one thing. Liberal hubris.
Hewson, FFS – can’t stand the guy but at least get his name right.