The latest Newspoll result from The Australian has the Coalition opening a 52-48 lead after a 50-50 result a fortnight ago, from primary votes of Coalition 45% (up two), Labor 35% (steady) and Greens 11% (down one). Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister has blown out from 57-19 to 63-17, and his personal ratings are 58% approve (up eight) and 23% disapprove (down two). Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 26% – his lowest Newspoll result yet – and up five on disapproval to 58%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday by automated phone and online polling, from a sample of 1606.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Movement to the Coalition now from Essential Research as well, which has them up a point on both two-party preferred, on which they now lead 52-48, and on the primary vote, putting them at 45%, compared with 35% for Labor (down one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). This score is from a fortnightly rolling average of weekly polling, the latest tranche of which was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1012.
Other questions relate to the union movement, and as usual they find it to be viewed more favourably than some of the narrative might indicate. Sixty-two per cent rated unions as very important or quite important for Australian working people today, a semi-regular question which has been tracking upwards from a result of 52% in September 2012, while responses of not very important or not at all important have fallen over that time from 38% to 28%. Forty-five per cent agreed that workers would be better off if unions in Australia were stronger, with 26% opting for worse off. However, 42% deemed the trade union royal commission “a legitimate investigation of union practices” compared with 27% who favoured the alternative proposition that it was “a political attack on Labor and the unions”, which is similar to when the question was last asked in August (“don’t know” remaining at a high 31%).
Another semi-regular question, on same sex marriage, records no significant change on August, with 59% in favour and 30% opposed, both of which are down one point on last time. Opinion is evenly divided on whether the matter should be determined by a plebiscite (43%) or a vote in parliament (41%). Also featured is a question on whether Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison will be better economic managers than Tony Abbott than Joe Hockey, with 50% opting for better and 10% for worse.
[Can someone tell me why the Nationals are so enthusiastic about direct action.]
http://www.carbonfarmersofaustralia.com.au/About/Farming-under-Direct-Action
Alias – Stop being dopey. The stupidest thing Labor could do is change leaders. Right now, people don’t love Malcolm, they love the idea “of” Malcolm. They’ll have to reconcile those eventually.
Confessions.. I was unaware of the Jerry Hall-Mick Jagger gossip. I don’t tend to take much interest in these things but that really has caused me to do a double-take. Perhaps she’s genuinely fascinated by the combination of power and money? I’m trying to be charitable here.
Aussie – You’re a genius. Do we know how much in total the farmers are getting each year? Surely they have to put out a report on direct action.
What does mass migration look like?
http://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2015/10/thousands-of-migrants-are-crossing-the-balkans-on-foot/412453/
poroti:
Barnaby is on the case!
[Agriculture Minister Barnaby Joyce has ridiculed as a “farce” a landmark report that says bacon and sausages are carcinogenic, saying humans would be heading back to the cave if they adopted all advice from the World Health Organisation.]
Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/world-health-organisation-advice-would-have-australians-living-in-caves-barnaby-joyce-20151026-gkj4em.html?
Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook
Confessions – Got to be a rort.
Lorax mate
[zoomster mate, there are plenty in the electorate who admire Turnbull, yes admire, because he’s been successful in business. ]
Yes, mostly Liberals.
You’re doing short term thinking here. Pluses become minuses for leaders over time. If Turnbull starts clearly favouring big business it will be easy to paint him as one of them rather than one of us.
Hence the Caymans. A gentle nudge in that direction.
[It makes a huge difference in people’s minds that he’s self-made and wasn’t born with the proverbial silver spoon.]
I’m sorry, what? We’re talking about a man whose idea of disadvantage is that he lived for part of his childhood in a rented flat in Vaucluse.
That for him was apparently hitting rock bottom.
Malcolm does not come from anywhere resembling even an average Australian’s neighbourhood, let alone Struggle Street.
[Shorten’s story is meh at best.]
Which is closer to the story average Australians have to tell.
However, Shorten chose, quite deliberately and very early, to dedicate his life to improving the lot of others. As a union leader, as TURC demostrated, he has a very good track record when it comes to this. Moreover, he is able to do this without descending into class warfare; he brought both business and unions together and brokered deals which benefitted all sides.
He also has a much better track record when it comes to policy delivery than Turnbull has. He doesn’t just dash off ideas on the back of an envelope; he consults with ordinary people, explores the options with them and then delivers.
He may not be coming across that way, and may never do so, but he’s a much more substantial figure than Turnbull will ever be (and Turnbull’s history is that of a man who is only interested in Turnbull).
This gives a good explanation about how processed and red meat can increase the risks of some gastrointestinal cancer.
The article does not mention that having an adequate intake of vitamin C can neutralise the effect of the nitrosamines. Does any one know if current research suggests this is the case?
poroti
From what I heard from one of the researchers was and this is something that should be in the headline “x amount per day may increase the risk”
I can’t remember the x amount but still the per day bit is very important to the story.
meher baba @ 126:
Palaszczuk had her own Abbott in Newman, and Victoria has shifted so far left, Coalition governments will always have a tough time.
FWIW, I don’t think Labor will burn talent by letting another leader have a go now. If they can’t hack it in the heat of an election campaign, better we find out now than in 2019. Latham 2004 comes to mind. Imagine if they stuck with Crean, he got smashed, and *then* they went to Latham, who blew up in 2007.
If the new leader puts in a credible performance its a great foundation for the next term. No-one will be expecting a new leader to win, which takes the pressure off somewhat.
alias: Tanya P is undoubtedly a good sort and has a nice voice and a very pleasant way of speaking. But, leaving these (undeniably important) factors to one side, I am struggling to think of anything that she has said on any issue which has made an impression on me. I remember her as a spokesperson on housing, a Minister for Health and a spokesperson on Foreign Affairs. But what was she on about in those roles? I can’t recall.
Perhaps that’s no bad thing. And, as the song goes, “she’s got the look”. But is that all it takes?
One thing I have learned about well off suburbs is that the suburbs reputation doesn’t always meet the reality, I’m sure there are plenty of rich people in places like Vaucluse but there would be some who were not rich.
Whoops, here is link for 159:
http://www.smh.com.au/world/explainer-now-that-the-who-says-processed-meat-causes-cancer-should-we-all-go-vegetarian-20151026-gkj3c3.html
I think most people on this blog calling so passionately for Shorten to be replaced will not vote Labor at the next election anyway, and so I take their analysis with a grain of salt.
K17
Without going back and reading the results of the reverse auction run by the government I recall at least one overseas owned company had a significant windfall at the auction.
My recollection is that a number of companies “bid” and they will negotiate with the farmers. I don’t recall individual farmers “bidding”.
Morning all
Thanks Lizzie, Douglas and others for today’s offerings.
Douglas and Milko @ 165: Labor will not be getting my first preference largely *because* of Shorten. If Plibersek or Clare were leader the situation would be different.
And no, I won’t be voting LNP.
Douglas and Milko
Spot on. I have had to do a fair bit of scrolling this morning to miss the likes of alias and Lorax. their repetitious musings are so boring. I think alias wants to beat the previous record of him telling us how Labor needed to change back to Rudd ad nauseaum.
The election will be fought out over the economy, the labour market, incomes, taxation and the provision of public services. Labor have to show they can do a better job on these things than the Liberals. So the performance of the economy is going to matter…a lot. Can Turnbott and his new cabinet do better than their predecessors? It’s not obvious that they can. So far, the messages on the economic themes suggest they are still locked into the dysfunctional, self-defeating economics pursued by Abbott and Hockey.
Labor should be hammering the Libs on economic themes every minute of every day. This will give them a fighting chance
The big problem for Alias is that this poll absolutely destroys his theory that all that counts in Australian politics is style. If that was all that counted, the liberals would have snared 2/3rds of the vote.
Briefly – I agree, though the electorate isn’t too interested in policies right now (what with being tired of politics post-Abbott and having a shiny new Mal-Doll to play with). But they will refocus.
Lorax – will you be preferencing the LNP before Labor?
D&M:
The challenge for people looking to shape their diets around the processed and red meat warnings is that there is no proven safe level of consumption like there is for alcohol (1-2 standard drinks per day with at least 2 alcohol-free days each week), or smoking (every cigarette is causing damage).
mexican
regardless, Turnbull comes from the squattocracy. His second name is Bligh, after all – a reminder that he is descended from one of Australia’s first governors. He married into another distinguished North Shore family.
He is a child of priviledge (which doesn’t always equal wealth).
Class does exist in Australia, and those who are born into the Australian establishment are amongst the most priviledged.
The Lorax
No matter how good your local Labor member is? No matter how successful for your electorate your local Labor member has been?
Fessy
Listening to a researcher, the risk was increased over a particular level of consumption per day.
meher baba
Posted Tuesday, October 27, 2015 at 6:55 am | PERMALINK
[Despite the wishful thinking of many on this blog, I can see no evidence suggesting that this situation is going to change before the next election.]
This is because you are entirely lacking in foresight or good judgement.
No bacon, no sausages, no butter then there was the BBQ cooked meat causes cancer a few years ago….what next no pork crackle?
What will a man eat
zoomster
That may be true but in country areas such as Indi, there are countless families that have been farming for multiple generations, lets take towns around Alexs and Yea, I can think of about half a dozen or so families who have farmed the area as far back as the mid 1880s, and their surnames have dominated the local communities for years.
mid 1880s should have been mid 1800s
mexican:
They mentioned the quantum specified increases the risk by whatever percentage it was. Not that it represented a safe consumption level.
meanwhile here in Melbourne, we have had another drive by shooting, which has resulted in the death of a man and injuries to a four year old boy. As reported by Vic Pol, it relates to the drug ice industry which is really becoming a scourge.
AA
Butter’s fine. Don’t go near margarine, that’s all, unless made with olive oil.
[179
AussieAchmed
What will a man eat]
Spinach.
Spinach and ambition for the future of working people. These will sustain us all.
zoomster
Obviously Truffles has mesmerised the populace. Will be interesting to see how long it will take for the shine to wear off. It took about a year for the gloss to wear off Rudd
I enjoyed checking out the twitter feed between Tony Windsor and PVO last night. Windsor doesnt think much of PVO at all
KEVIN-ONE-SEVEN@171
Ahh, but his man love is blind and his heart is fluttering at the very thought of turnbull 😉
186
victoria
Their economic policies are inadequate – wholly inadequate, counter-productive, even destructive. This is obvious. Labor should fight on this ground and make it their own.
mexican
Yep, and they’re squattocracy.
Hence I know a little bit about what I’m talking about.
(I really didn’t think class was a thing in Australia until I started working on council with some of the local squatters…who used to say things like “Poor X has lost the governorship of Victoria. He was so disappointed about it when he spoke to me. However, Y (his successor) is an excellent man; we went to school together.”)
briefly
Agreed. Labor have released policies on an intermittent basis, but is anyone really taking any notice?
Based on tweets I am seeing, Turnbull must be doing a presser somewhere
Victoria – Rudd had some decent policies to promote (until he stopped doing that). At the moment Malcolm is very popular because he is NOT the rest of his party. It’s a very funny situation.
lizzie
I read an article by a nutrionist a few years ago who basically said if you were using margarine in cooking, skip to the chase and just use vegetable oil, which is all margarine is after all (with a few chemicals added for colour).
Ever since, I’ve used olive oil instead – the only trick I’ve had to use to make it work is to mix it in before heating (e.g. for a bechamel sauce, I mix the olive oil and flour while the oil is still cold).
K17
True.
Meanwhile, it appears the msm are no longer bound to Abbott. Hmmmm
http://www.afr.com/brand/rear-window/tony-abbott-going-to-france-with-peta-credlin-and-richard-dowdy-20151026-gkirce
Has guytaur been around lately?
Turnbull is popular because he is not Tony Abbott.
His personal polling does not reflect in the 2PP polls.
Talk of having to change the Labor leadership is premature and a knee jerk reaction to the polls.
Zoomster
I must admit that I have never heard such talk from the people I refer too, although the old local councils were sometimes the paythings of certain people.
fess
Yes guytaur has been around. Not as much though
mexican
the new local councils often are too.
After all, they’re related to half the community, so getting the votes required is usually easy.