Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition

Newspoll provides more evidence of the Prime Minister’s surging popularity, although the lead recorded for the Coalition on voting intention remains relatively modest.

The latest Newspoll result from The Australian has the Coalition opening a 52-48 lead after a 50-50 result a fortnight ago, from primary votes of Coalition 45% (up two), Labor 35% (steady) and Greens 11% (down one). Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister has blown out from 57-19 to 63-17, and his personal ratings are 58% approve (up eight) and 23% disapprove (down two). Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 26% – his lowest Newspoll result yet – and up five on disapproval to 58%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday by automated phone and online polling, from a sample of 1606.

UPDATE (Essential Research): Movement to the Coalition now from Essential Research as well, which has them up a point on both two-party preferred, on which they now lead 52-48, and on the primary vote, putting them at 45%, compared with 35% for Labor (down one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). This score is from a fortnightly rolling average of weekly polling, the latest tranche of which was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1012.

Other questions relate to the union movement, and as usual they find it to be viewed more favourably than some of the narrative might indicate. Sixty-two per cent rated unions as very important or quite important for Australian working people today, a semi-regular question which has been tracking upwards from a result of 52% in September 2012, while responses of not very important or not at all important have fallen over that time from 38% to 28%. Forty-five per cent agreed that workers would be better off if unions in Australia were stronger, with 26% opting for worse off. However, 42% deemed the trade union royal commission “a legitimate investigation of union practices” compared with 27% who favoured the alternative proposition that it was “a political attack on Labor and the unions”, which is similar to when the question was last asked in August (“don’t know” remaining at a high 31%).

Another semi-regular question, on same sex marriage, records no significant change on August, with 59% in favour and 30% opposed, both of which are down one point on last time. Opinion is evenly divided on whether the matter should be determined by a plebiscite (43%) or a vote in parliament (41%). Also featured is a question on whether Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison will be better economic managers than Tony Abbott than Joe Hockey, with 50% opting for better and 10% for worse.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,178 comments on “Newspoll: 52-48 to Coalition”

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  1. I totally and utterly agree with you.

    Just Me@1006

    Add me to the list of those with nothing but utter & open contempt for the filthy hypocritical parasite scum who are happy to take all the (direct and indirect) goodies unions provide, while refusing to pay their dues, indulging in endless union bashing, and even sometimes in the same breath bragging about how good are their conditions.

    Met far too many of them in my life, and they shit me like almost no other group in our world.

    Pay your union dues, parasites. Or negotiate directly with your employer, one on one, in secret, with no support, and don’t complain about the shitty result.

    Same argument extends to the more generic ‘do-gooder’ bashing about broader social & political (& technological) progress, including that delivered by the evil socialism type governance.

    You don’t like doing the hard yards and paying the price to get and keep these benefits (rights, protections, freedoms, opportunities, etc,) then you have no right to claim and enjoy them.

    Nice win on the back dues, lefty. Should be more of it.

  2. wwp – It will be fascinating to see exactly how they justify a GST increase because they’ve been repeatedly saying we have an expenditure, not a revenue problem. So how do you justify another big tax grab, particularly when you’re going to use it to give tax cuts?

  3. Just watched part of the Abbott speech on the ABC. If I were to wish Turnbull success in any endeavor, it would be to rid the Libs of the conservative rump, they are still dangerous & unrepresentative of broader Australian values & their demise would be in this country’s best interest.

    That Abbott would repudiate perhaps civilisation’s core value of helping those in need is more than incongruous given his Jesuit education & serves only to confirm how fortunate we are to be rid of him & his ilk.

  4. Interesting adjunct on BBC World at the moment reporting the Abbott speech in London…

    It gives a resume of the Oz Boat Policy with 5 dot points.

    The first two of the dot points refer to the policy as one being reformulated by Labor while dot point 3 states the policy was “expanded” by the new LNP government.

    Dot Point 5 indicates that some considerable number of boats have now been stopped/towed back or whatever and that only one has actually arrived.

    For good or bad, the existing Boat policy is seen by the BBC at least, as one which Labor crafted and the Liberals elaborated.

  5. poroti at 1110

    I genuinely wish them success, I’d like nothing more than to see these grubs dealt with the full force of the law in falsely spreading their poison, they are a blight on our already sullied msm.

  6. It is ridiculous to claim that Labor will only be credible if it promises to raise the GST. The structural problem in fiscal policy is that the deficit is too small. Aggregate spending is significantly lower than what is needed to buy the output that could be produced with existing resources (labour, materials, energy, technology) at current productivity levels. The government’s correct move is to increase its deficit in order to fill the spending gap in the economy. The real debate is how to design and target this spending to maximize employment and public good.

    Let’s abandon the zombie claim that the government needs to be raising more revenue at a time when households and firms lack the funds to spend what is needed to buy all of the economy’s potential output and achieve full employment. The only time when it makes sense to increase total tax revenues is when the economy is overheating – that is, when nominal spending growth is racing ahead of real output growth. Increasing taxation tamps down the private sector’s spending. Cutting government spending achieves the same effect.

  7. Nicholas

    Firms don’t lack the funds to invest, in many cases balance sheets have never been stronger but business has chosen to give it back to shareholders than to pend it.

  8. Nicholas – I strongly suspect that the Libs’ GST will just be a cover for redistributing wealth. This government DOESN’T want more revenue. Rather, it wants to starve the beast and use that as an excuse to cut services.
    So, when people work out this is really a way of putting money in the pockets of the better off, there might be a huge stink.
    Are this lot dumb enough to try something like that? I think they are.

  9. Mexican

    It would be stupid of firms to invest in extra productive capacity when they wouldn’t be able to sell the extra output. There is too little spending in the economy right now to justify investment. Do you understand that fundamental point? Cutting the private sector’s spending power by increasing tax revenues is the wrong thing to when there is a large spending gap.

  10. Nicholas – Not quite true. You can heavily tax the rich without cutting the community’s spending power. That’s because, the rich have plenty of spare money. That’s what it means to be rich. But if you tax the poor you will severely affect consumption.

    [A scandal has erupted over the conduct of the banking and superannuation watchdog, after revelations it briefed crossbench senators at the Government’s request on a controversial superannuation bill.

    Helen Rowell, the second most senior official at the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority, admitted at a Senate hearing that APRA officials had briefed the crossbenchers on a bill to change the governance of industry super funds.]

  12. shellbell

    Well deserved recipient 🙂
    [Leading up to the execution of Bali Nine ringleaders Andrew Chan and Myuran Sukumaran, their lawyer Julian McMahon solely focused on their case.

    Refusing to take on any new paying clients, the 2016 Victorian Australian of the Year worked tirelessly to try to save them from the death penalty.

    For more than 12 years, he has worked without payments for Australians facing the death penalty abroad.]
    Unlike what some people believe – not all lawyers are spivs 😉

  13. a GST hike with a commensurate hike in newstart, pensions and the tax free threshold to protect those on income of less than $50,000 or so, indexed to prevent bracket creep, would not be the worst thing in the world provided they also close tax loopholes to the wealthy. Getting 15% tax from the spending of the wealthy means they’ll pay more tax. I’d prefer to see more luxury taxes and death duties for non-farm estates above $2 million, but maybe we can do both. Labor shouldn’t rule out a GST increase – bit make the case of a fair tax system.

  14. daretotread@1046


    I suggest you google some of the story of Waltzing Matilda and you might find it a MUCH better anthem than you thought – especially for labor people.

    The rumour goes that the swagman was a union organiser who “disappeared” believed murdered by the squatters and troopers. it was a subversive song but heavily disguised.

    I couldn’t care less about that. It is just a dirge and not at all suitable as a National Anthem.

  15. Pegasus

    [A scandal has erupted over the conduct of the banking and superannuation watchdog, after revelations it briefed crossbench senators at the Government’s request on a controversial superannuation bill.]

    This is totally unacceptable. Makes me so angry!

  16. [ I can see why the LNP would do this as their preferred “lazy” option, but I’d be surprised if the ALP does so without exploring all other options first – for instance, tackling tax evasion, removing tax concessions for the wealthy, and increasing the top marginal tax rate.]

    Yup, the Libs have been told by their donors to raise the GST to fix the revenue issue we apparently don’t have, then cut business taxes and then spending so they can cut taxes further.

    I seriously doubt that the Libs are on any kind of winner going to an election looking to raise the GST unless people are, collectively, STILL as stupid as when Abbott was elected??

    There are just so many ways for Shortens ALP to cane the Libs if they go down that path.

  17. IMACCA – Agree. This could easily be the first budget redux (except this time it will shred Malcon’s reputation).

    It’s hard to believe the Libs could be that stupid. But if they’ve taught us one thing it’s that they are that stupid.

    As for Malcolm, he’s along for the ride. He can’t be bothered working too hard on policy. He’ll be given a brief and go out and flog it.

  18. TBA : Meanwhile not 1 single person has drowned at sea since the Coalition Government started turning back the boats in late 2013.

    How would you know?

  19. Kevin is partly correct

    If we look at QE, its been great at increase asset prices which in turn has added wealth to those who hold those assets but its done very little if anything in the real economy, hence the U.S don’t look like raising rates anytime soon as the economy is barely growing above 3%

  20. OC

    That was my mistake, not his. He served as ADC under both Stephen and Cowen and it was Stephen who sytmied Fraser.

    Stephen insisted on reading all of the 34 pages Fraser gave him justifying a DD, and then asked for more information. He gave a farewell for a Polish dignity while the clock ticked.

    de Crespigny didn’t have anything nice to say about Fraser. He was the one who greeted Fraser at Yarralumla that day and said Fraser was unbelievably rude.

  21. So where do these piss on the poor policies take us ? Let’s look over at England and see.

    [Malnutrition and ‘Victorian’ diseases soaring in England ‘due to food poverty and cuts’

    Cases of Victorian-era diseases including scurvy, scarlet fever, cholera and whooping cough have increased since 2010…..Tuberculosis in London: Worse than Iraq ]

  22. Kevin

    That’s a distribution question rather than a question of whether the deficit should be larger, smaller, or remain the same. I agree that there is substantial scope to change tax policy in ways which reduce inequality of wealth and income. The main game here is to tax wealth. Fortunes above a certain multiple of per capita GDP should be subject to an annual tax. It wouldn’t have to be a high rate to make a significant impact on inequality.

  23. Will be interesting to see how Malcolm travels with the GST thing. I wonder if its one of the things that he is being pushed into now by the more economically illiterate RWNJ’s in the Libs?

    I would have thought he’d steer clear of it till after an election. As a rich bastard with a dubious history of political achievement in any real policy sense he does need to be careful.

  24. 1131

    That is why, if the Simultaneous Elections Referendum 1977 (or 1974, but that had less support because it was a Whitlam proposal), Bill Hayden probably would have been PM. This is because Fraser would have been able to advise the GG to dissolve the HoR with there being a simultaneous half-Senate election rather than a half-Senate election in the next financial year.

  25. [Fortunes above a certain multiple of per capita GDP should be subject to an annual tax. It wouldn’t have to be a high rate to make a significant impact on inequality.]

    I think they should bring in the “Buffet Tax” on very high income earners and corporations like Microsoft where their sales get taxed at a very low rate, even 1-2%, but they cannot avoid it by shifting their profit overseas.

  26. Possum Comitatus ‏@Pollytics 4m4 minutes ago

    From Robbie Katters speech, it seems that the ALP has the numbers. I hope the ALP deals with the issues he has raised regardless. #qldpol

  27. Diogenes
    [I think they should bring in the “Buffet Tax” on very high income earners…]
    Bob Brown and the Greens Party were advocating this back in 2011:
    [Australian Greens Leader Bob Brown today welcomed billionaire investor Warren Buffett’s support for a tax on the “mega-rich”.

    “The Oracle of Omaha is calling for the same outcome as is Australian Greens policy. The wealthy can pay a fair share of tax and the sun will still rise in the morning,” Senator Brown said in Canberra.]
    Greens Tax Forum submission:
    [The income tax system should be more progressive. Like President Obama and Warren Buffet, the Greens believe the richest people in society can contribute more. The Australian version of the Buffet tax – a 50 per cent marginal rate – should be introduced for incomes of over $1 million.]

  28. Diogenes #1136
    [I think they should bring in the “Buffet Tax” on very high income earners…]

    I also think they should bring in Estate Taxes.

  29. zoidlord @ 1143

    [All sides of politics would need to reach an agreement before Queensland could have fixed four-year terms, the Opposition says.

    A parliamentary committee is considering whether to change the current system of variable three-year terms.

    The Liberal National Party’s Ian Walker has proposed setting the election date for the second Saturday of March every four years, but he said the public was unlikely to approve the reform in a referendum without cross-party agreement.]

  30. 1144

    The should bring in inheritance taxes, not estate taxes. tax the recipient not the dead. This helps with the point that the taxes are not about the dead but fairness for the living. Also it straightens out the anomaly that under most estate taxes often less tax is paid where one person inherits money from 2 people than when 2 people jointly inherit the same amount of money.

  31. I am not a fan of fixed election dates, even under fixed term systems. The term should be based on the starting date, not some arbitrary fixture date.

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