The latest Newspoll result from The Australian has the Coalition opening a 52-48 lead after a 50-50 result a fortnight ago, from primary votes of Coalition 45% (up two), Labor 35% (steady) and Greens 11% (down one). Malcolm Turnbull’s lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister has blown out from 57-19 to 63-17, and his personal ratings are 58% approve (up eight) and 23% disapprove (down two). Bill Shorten is down two on approval to 26% – his lowest Newspoll result yet – and up five on disapproval to 58%. The poll was conducted Thursday to Sunday by automated phone and online polling, from a sample of 1606.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Movement to the Coalition now from Essential Research as well, which has them up a point on both two-party preferred, on which they now lead 52-48, and on the primary vote, putting them at 45%, compared with 35% for Labor (down one) and 11% for the Greens (steady). This score is from a fortnightly rolling average of weekly polling, the latest tranche of which was conducted Thursday to Sunday from a sample of 1012.
Other questions relate to the union movement, and as usual they find it to be viewed more favourably than some of the narrative might indicate. Sixty-two per cent rated unions as very important or quite important for Australian working people today, a semi-regular question which has been tracking upwards from a result of 52% in September 2012, while responses of not very important or not at all important have fallen over that time from 38% to 28%. Forty-five per cent agreed that workers would be better off if unions in Australia were stronger, with 26% opting for worse off. However, 42% deemed the trade union royal commission “a legitimate investigation of union practices” compared with 27% who favoured the alternative proposition that it was “a political attack on Labor and the unions”, which is similar to when the question was last asked in August (“don’t know” remaining at a high 31%).
Another semi-regular question, on same sex marriage, records no significant change on August, with 59% in favour and 30% opposed, both of which are down one point on last time. Opinion is evenly divided on whether the matter should be determined by a plebiscite (43%) or a vote in parliament (41%). Also featured is a question on whether Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison will be better economic managers than Tony Abbott than Joe Hockey, with 50% opting for better and 10% for worse.
Also we were promised policy driven debate as soon as Gillard went. Two years on and we still have promises.
I think it’s possible for a Leader of the Opposition to simply be a “dud”. A total dud. That was Alexander Downer’s problem. People looked at him and thought “no thank-you”.
They’ve taken a look at Shorten and thought the same: “Pass”. This Australians are quite efficient that way.
Of course all this was disguised by the freakshow called the Abbott government which allowed Shorten to live in an altered state of reality where he could win an election only because Australia had its worst ever PM.
dio@46
Ouch, I really love my charcuterie. Do you think if I only gorge on said threat a few times a year it will be OK?
Or do we need to cit to zero?
“Or do we need to reduce consumption to zero”
lefty e@41
PM netsat matters. It is strongly and apparently causatively corellated with 2PP. That is, impressions of the PM seem to drive impressions of the government.
LO netsat has next to no impact on 2PP. However, with the exception of Abbott, Opposition Leaders who became seriously unpopular have either been rolled by their party or beaten. Abbott probably also would have been rolled but for Labor self-destructing and giving him the win by default.
PPM has a house effect in favour of incumbent PMs so when the PM leads by only a small amount it usually means their party is in trouble. There are exceptions, eg Keating in ’93 and Howard in ’98 trailed on PPM by a point but won the election.
2PP is indeed the main game. There are a quite a lot of ways of interpreting tonight’s difference between the personal ratings and the 2PP and I will waffle about this lots on my site tomorrow.
alias@47
Downer was up against Keating who never polled a positive netsat in his career, so that explains that.
confessions
Even less news in that the danger of cancer from nitrosamines found in cured meat has been known for many decades. A couple of quotes from scientific publications below illustrate this. .What is surprising is that it has taken so long for it to be widely disseminated.
[Public Health Rep. 1984 Jul-Aug; 99(4): 360–364.
Regulators became concerned about the safety of using nitrite in the early 1960s when studies showed the presence of carcinogenic nitrosamines in cured meat products]
.
[Nature 245, 104 – 105 (14 September 1973)
N-nitrosamines, well known carcinogens, in foods, especially nitrite-treated meat and fish products….NPy is formed during frying of bacon……]
Thanks Kevin
Diogenes
It would be interesting to know how much the influence of the North American Meat Institute and the national beef and pork associations were in holding back action being taken.
KB,
Casually trawling through your articles and came across this
[The Coalition could look back to a previous major gay-rights issue for a hint what not to do. In 1994 Alexander Downer sacked John Hewson from his frontbench for agreeing with Labor’s policy on neutralising Tasmania’s anti-gay sex laws.]
Despite coming across some pig-headedness from my partner’s parents I have to say I’m truly relieved to have grown up in modern day Australia compared to nearly anywhere else and have the luxury of being able to say my life isn’t really that different or more difficult from that of a straight person.
Bugler@49
Probably this one from a few years ago:
http://kevinbonham.blogspot.com.au/2012/11/as-gillard-recovered-so-can-abbott.html
…which is looking a bit dated now since Abbott defied my prediction by recovering 30 points from -36 to -6, which was the second best recovery by an LO ever.
Shorten might recover a similar amount to so-so personal ratings. I’m not sure though. The things that are most driving his unpopularity are extremely difficult to change. The same thing applied with Simon Crean.
I’m intrigued Kevin. What are the “things that are most driving Shorten’s unpopularity” in your view?
Diogenes@46
As I understand it the Group 1 thing is not about the severity of risk but about the perceived strength of evidence. That said I have personally cut down on red and processed meats quite a lot in recent years. After all it really doesn’t bother or affect me to most of the time just go eat something else.
Thanks Kevin,
It was more I’m finding these Shorten netstats as difficult to credit as his early very good ones (which I still don’t really understand… not being Abbott, Rudd or Gillard?)
alias@62
Voters who dislike him think he is a machine-man, a union hack, bland, over-rehearsed, lacking personality or opinions of his own, and untrustworthy. Except for some on the left displeased about refugees and so on, it is generally not about policy; it is that voters either don’t like him as a person or more concerningly don’t even see him as a person.
Fascinating. Thanks Kevin.
Going by current polling numbers then, a great many Australian voters find themselves holding some or all the views you describe.
Bugler@64
Opposition Leaders tend to start out well and then collect enemies. In this context Shorten’s start wasn’t actually all that strong. I remember in his very early Newspolls noting him as having a lot in common statistically with Nelson.
KB @65,
That’s the thing that intrigues me about Shorten’s numbers. I thought about that but surely that kind of perception would have been most prominent just after The Troubles, or the Killing Season. But they’re not, they’re after Turnbull got appointed some years later.
i hope we’re all not in for a nasty time, with turnbull riding the slipstream of post abbott whatever, and labor rocked by turbulence – really the amoral doublethink of shorten’s rise (how did a rudd plan to ensure more rank and file choice result in numbers man being locked in) will cost dearly …. if he is so decent a guy why does he not stand down>
KB, 65
[it is that voters either don’t like him as a person or more concerningly don’t even see him as a person.]
There’s a running joke that I’ve heard in which Bill Shorten is actually a hologram.
Airlines
That’s funny except you’d think they’d design a way better hologram. One with a personality, for starters.
I reckon if you cut him he would bleed.
Thanks Kevin, sorry for bothering you so much tonight 😛
[There’s a running joke that I’ve heard in which Bill Shorten is actually a hologram.)
He does have a similar hairline to the Emergency Medical Hologram in the Voyager series 😉
Bugler@68
It was actually around the Killing Season release time that Shorten started getting really bad ratings. There’s basically been not much change since but for a brief respite which I think the Heydon fundraiser thing had a lot to do with.
He might be slumping again now because bad polling brings reservations about him to the fore.
I think the removal of Abbott from the equation has a lot to do with the way voters are now able to express their true feelings about Shorten. The weird and wacky world of having Abbott as PM distorted all types of things, most notably Shorten’s stature as a credible alternative PM.
Thanks again Kevin. I’ve been trying to think what happened around February to start making them slide (I was focusing on other things at the time) but I can see it accelerated a fair bit when it aired. Not surprising considering it was highly viewed. Not having viewed it I perhaps underestimated its impact.
[I’ve been trying to think what happened around February to start making them slide (I was focusing on other things at the time) but I can see it accelerated a fair bit when it aired.]
The popular theory was that the spill motion against Tony Abbott caused poll respondents to take the idea of a Labor victory more seriously, and hence to hold Shorten to a higher standard.
75
Abbott is not entirely gone from the equation. I am sure he wants the PMship back.
Snap election higher probability now.
i think average punter finds shorten boring as …. and does not want to see more of him esp as PM … sad but true
shorten attack rhetoric still sounds to high school stuff —- i will leave it to a linguist to explain its pallid contrivance, beginning with the arcane address to PM (abbott and MT) as Mr …, as if that is effective with anyone at all (where did that little mannerism come from??)
So let me get the narrative straight.
Turnbull is a charming, urbane and sophisticated gent who is popular because he has civilised the discussion and brought it back to policy, but the policies don’t matter (well at least, not any you’d care to name) because Turnbull is popular and Shorten isn’t.
Is that about right?
You’re quite right Geoffrey.
Shorten really doesn’t make the cut in the B team, he’s more properly relegated to the C team. I have no doubt he’s a decent, likeable sort of chap but what many around here fail to grasp is that it is simply going to save time and effort to get rid of him now and build the credentials of an alternative – for mine that’s Tanya Plibersek.
Thanks William. That does make sense – it would be interesting to see the level of respondence next to netstats and PPM measures as maybe a measure for how “solid” it may be.
[i think average punter finds shorten boring as …. and does not want to see more of him esp as PM … sad but true]
I think what I’m more worried about Shorten is the precedent that would be set by cutting him before an election. That they’re not even going to try a consensus style, softly spoken politician at an election. Whether some people care to admit it or not, Plibersek’s political style doesn’t really differ that much from Shorten’s other than having a little different background. I think it would be unfortunate for her or another policy focused politician such as Penny Wong being excluded from the leadership because they’re not a show pony. Then we have to deal with the pure agony of constant leadership speculation because the media now feels it’s been vindicated. It’d be enough to drive me away from politics until things settle down again (last time I did that it was after reading Michelle Grattan’s article about a speech then PM Gillard gave that focused entirely on the fact she had new glasses. I just quit after that until well after the election).
Thanks KB, above.
Bugler.. What you have to keep in mind is that Shorten himself was quite OK with switching PMs – not Opposition leaders but PMs – not once but twice in a single parliamentary term. So applying any kind of fairness rule, Shorten’s time is up. He failed as Opposition leader, not by a little bit but comprehensively; massively. He’s been voted off the island. He’ll make a good Cabinet minister in the next Labor administration.
Sorry late night blooper. Obviously it wasn’t in one parliamentary term, but it was over a fairly short span of years.
79
Calling an election now would be a bad idea. The redistributions in WA and NSW have not finished yet but the number of seats each of those states will be electing has already changed and thus the shotgun redistribution process would be triggered and this would be a bit messy and should be avoided.
Senate voting reform has also not happened yet. A DD (a House only election is unlikely, no government wants the Senate to be decided with a by-election effect and there cannot be a half-Senate election called until the second half of next year) without Senate reform would be really messy.
The Second of April next year is the first practical election date (and one of the last practical DD dates because of the budget and the limitations in how late in a term a DD can be).
DN I think it’s because Turnbull looks and acts like a PM. Something we sort of lost a while back.
alias,
Considering Plibersek and Wong and a whole heap of other MPs made the same calculation I don’t really see what your point is. It certainly doesn’t follow from what I said.
Maybe you should just accept that I’m not going to agree with you no matter how many loaded assumptions you throw at me or however insistent you are that you must be right. I simply don’t care and I’m not about to until you actually think through your arguments to their logical conclusions, or at least consider that at least some of your assumptions aren’t necessarily going to prove correct.
Politics for me is about issues and actual policies – for you its about style. Given I’m a social democrat I’m not going to delude myself that Turnbull is going to support half the things I do just because he’s not Abbott. I appreciate you don’t agree with that assessment and probably have a different political perspective to me that inclines you to be more approving of Turnbull. So far as I can see I don’t think there’s really anything offensive about Shorten, I’ve stated why, you disagree. Why not just leave it at that?
as I have asked before can you also put into your analysis that there is a 3% margin of error and that to days results show that there is no change. it is still 50/50 as the trend has been for a long time. the same applies to BILL SHORTEN’s approval rating it is still with in that 3% so there has been no change at all and it remains as the trend has shown for a long time. please do not bias it toward a false report.
It shows no change within a 95% confidence level. But it does show change within a confidence level of around 90%, which is still pretty high. For that sort of reason, I’m less enamoured than some by the practice of identifying the margin of error, which if anything tends to give the lay person an exaggerated notion of a poll’s accuracy. It seems to me that it’s enough to identify the sample size. It doesn’t take a background in statistics to work out that a 1600 sample out of a 12 million population is not going to give you a pinpoint accurate result.
These polls reflect a hope that Malcolm Turnbull will remake the Liberal Party in his own image.
Let’s wait and see if that happens…
Diogenes@32
I like this quote, admittedly from a source with skin in the game:
[ The North American Meat Institute said defining red meat as a cancer hazard defied common sense.
“It was clear, sitting in the IARC meeting, that many of the panellists were aiming for a specific result despite old, weak, inconsistent, self-reported intake data,” said Betsy Booren, the institute’s vice-president of scientific affairs. “They tortured the data to ensure a specific outcome.
“Red and processed meat are among 940 agents reviewed by the IARC and found to pose some level of theoretical ‘hazard’. Only one substance, a chemical in yoga pants, has been declared by the IARC not to cause cancer.
“The IARC says you can enjoy your yoga class, but don’t breathe air (class 1 carcinogen), sit near a sun-filled window (class 1), apply aloe vera (class 2B) if you get a sunburn, drink wine or coffee (class 1 and class 2B), or eat grilled food (class 2A). And if you are a hairdresser or do shift work (both class 2A), you should seek a new career.”
]
For me, if coffee, wine, scotch, steak, eggs and bacon and fresh air and sunshine are on the list, I will take my chances.
Enjoy your lentils and water.
One more time for the lemmings. Kevin Bonham @ 65:
Absolutely nails it.
And for all those lemmings repeatedly pointing out that the LNP should be much further ahead on the 2PP with Turnbull’s stratospheric personal ratings. Hello? That’s because voters like the leader but don’t like (or trust) the party. On the flip side, they much prefer the policies of the ALP but don’t like (or trust) the leader.
Solution? You figure it out!
Good morning. The polls clearly demonstrate that there is a substantial chunk of swinging voters – and even some Labor voters – who like Turnbull. And a subset of the Turnbull-pikers which, because Turnbull is Liberal leader, have switched their voting intention to the Coalition. Presumably a significant proportion of these people voted for the Coalition in 2013.
Despite the wishful thinking of many on this blog, I can see no evidence suggesting that this situation is going to change before the next election. Indeed, as the Election Day draws nearer and voters focus on individual contests (which brings the neophyte factor into play) and perhaps also reflect on why they were determined to throw Labor out last time, the numbers for the Coalition could even become firmer.
This situation can only change if significant cracks appear in the aedifice. This will have to be more substantial than Abbott, Andrews and Abetz bitching and moaning: they are rapidly becoming yesterday’s men. It would require a major figure: a Morrison or a Tony Nutt to resign and state that “the Turnbull experiment has failed”. But that would first require the polls to go south: these people love being in government more than anything.
As, for the most part, does Labor (with the possible exception of Rudd and his boosters). I remember lots of portentous commentary in the early days of the Hawke Government along the lines of “he’ll never be able to keep the Left under control”. It was all nonsense: and it was of course the NSW Right which got him in the end.
As long as he remains reasonably popular, Turnbull won’t lose the Liberal right. He just needs to keep a lid on his arrogance: his biggest risk is that he will eventually be seen as a jumped-up wanker like Keating was (although MT isn’t publicly aggressive like Keating).
So sausages and oxygen are carcinogins. I promise to give them both up at the same time.
Good morning.
“One of the last things my father said: ‘No-one is listening, why are you wasting my time?’,” she said, having told of burying her father George on Saturday in the shadow of his death after a decade-long fight against coal seam gas exploration on his land.
http://www.theage.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/qa-recap-helen-bender-daughter-of-farmer-who-took-his-own-life-confronts-politicians-on-csg-20151027-gkj32y.html#ixzz3phgojcyQ
“While world leaders discuss emission reduction targets, a small number of countries with large coal reserves, including Australia, are planning to massively expand their coal exports. These plans are incompatible with the world’s objective of limiting global warming below dangerous levels.”
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/pressure-mounts-on-malcolm-turnbull-over-coal-20151026-gkimu1.html#ixzz3phhFIWjD
“We must anticipate that political tensions throughout the region play out online as cyberspace increasingly becomes another medium for international competition and national interests.”
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/jihadists-could-launch-major-cyber-attacks-says-former-asio-boss-david-irvine-20151026-gkisup.html#ixzz3phhV434R
When Mr Turnbull described himself as a “reformer”, he was not just talking about infrastructure projects and tax, but the prime ministerial working space.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/standing-desks-tea-cups-and-happy-snaps-inside-malcolm-turnbulls-new-office-20151025-gki9wr.html#ixzz3phhpqFvB
Cranbourne Carlisle Primary School recently told Shiite Muslim students that they could excuse themselves from singing Advance Australia Fair because it was a religious month of mourning.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/department-backs-school-over-national-anthem-furore-20151026-gkix7e.html#ixzz3phi3PdSR
The NSW corruption watchdog’s right to dramatically put surprise evidence to witnesses during public hearings – often resulting in a “gotcha” moment – is set to be the subject of a fresh inquiry into its powers.
http://www.theage.com.au/nsw/icacs-gotcha-powers-in-nsw-parliaments-sights-20151026-gkin9j.html#ixzz3phiCMYJ2
It is understood that senior NSW education figures believe that the release of review of the national curriculum in September was handled in a poor and tokenistic manner, with little regard for the importance and debate about Indigenous history.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/education/hsc-2015-indigenous-history-and-gender-equity-top-priorities-for-new-board-of-studies-curriculum-20151019-gkcwad.html#ixzz3phiSxTgV
Leading Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson said that he believed that abortion should be outlawed even in cases of rape and incest, comparing the procedure with slavery.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/leading-republican-candidate-ben-carson-compares-abortion-to-slavery-20151026-gkj2z4.html#ixzz3phkQP4PC
The demand for the controversial procedure is so great in Melbourne that the main service is flying doctors in from South Australia because there is a shortage of doctors trained and willing to do it in Victoria.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/abortion-tourism-brings-scores-of-women-to-victoria-for-late-terminations-20151026-gkiw6u.html#ixzz3phid3Mx3
In one of the worst single incidents, a panicked evacuation at girls’ school killed at least 12 students in the Afghan province of Takhar.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/earthquake-measuring-77-hits-india-pakistan-and-afghanistan-20151026-gkj1m2.html#ixzz3phjvZj6j
If carbon dioxide emissions continue at their current pace, by the end of century parts of the Persian Gulf will sometimes be just too hot for the human body to tolerate, a new study says.
http://www.theage.com.au/world/forecast-for-persian-gulf-a-heat-too-hot-for-human-body-20151026-gkj3do.html#ixzz3phk5QyeS
The Andrews government could be forced to include South Yarra station in its Melbourne Metro Rail plans if it wants to secure federal funding for the project.
http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/feds-push-for-melbourne-metro-to-include-south-yarra-station-20151026-gkieyp.html#ixzz3phkECbht
In an extraordinary settlement between the doctor and the Medical Board of Australia, Dr Nitschke, the head of Exit International, has also agreed to no longer run workshops on end-of-life strategies or participate in videos and online information about suicide.
http://www.theage.com.au/national/euthanasia-campaigner-philip-nitschke-banned-from-talking-about-suicide-20151026-gkih6k.html#ixzz3phkjplf9
In Norway, when a party goes wild, when a soccer match gets heated, when a rare swordfish spears out of a fjord with a loud noise and a massive splash, there is only one appropriate response: “Det var helt Texas!”
http://www.theage.com.au/world/texas-is-norwegian-for-crazy-20151026-gkj3g5.html#ixzz3phl42ayC
A report by Deloitte says it would be fairer to tax super like income, subject to progressive rates, and suggests contributions be taxed at marginal rates minus 15 per cent.
http://www.afr.com/news/politics/scott-morrison-says-self-managed-super-funds-are-heroes-20151025-gki8yx
Education Minister Simon Birmingham has been a passionate advocate for a controversial US-style school voucher system that would likely encourage more families to exit the public school system.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/education-minister-simon-birmingham-an-advocate-for-school-vouchers-20151026-gkiv5v.html#ixzz3phm85FVU
Consumers are their own worst enemies when it comes to the banking sector.
http://www.theage.com.au/comment/mortgage-rates-why-the-big-four-think-theyll-get-away-with-it-20151025-gki5wj.html#ixzz3phmFiZDG
Communications Minister Mitch Fifield wants to deliver government services over the internet and ramp up technology education to make Australia the world’s best digital economy.
http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/government-to-slash-public-service-costs-and-help-digital-economy-says-communications-minister-mitch-fifield-20151025-gkhwed.html#ixzz3phma0UXm
The survey has found small businesses are least likely to allow employees to start work later than normal or finish earlier; least likely to allow employees to work from home occasionally; and least likely to provide a work smartphone, a work laptop or provide the technology for employees to check their emails from home.
http://www.theage.com.au/small-business/flexibility-fail-for-small-business-20151025-gkibpt.html#ixzz3phml6Y8A
A former Uber driver has launched a start-up that he claims is better and safer than Uber, the ride-sharing app that has the taxi industry running scared.
http://www.theage.com.au/small-business/look-whos-disrupting-uber-20151021-gkfbp2.html#ixzz3phmsTxX2
National domestic violence and lawyers groups are calling on the Turnbull government to stop family violence victims from being directly cross-examined by their abusers in family courts.
http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/call-to-stop-abusers-crossexamining-their-victims-in-family-courts-20151026-gkiwa8.html#ixzz3phmziJG0
Rising demand for air conditioning and refrigeration threatens to make planet hotter and undermine pledges to rein in emissions
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/oct/26/cold-economy-cop21-global-warming-carbon-emissions
Albanese. Proposed new shipping legislation is extraordinary in its blatant disregard for Australian jobs and business.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/oct/26/trusss-shipping-legislation-is-an-astounding-betrayal-of-australian-workers
The Roy Morgan poll found 91% of those surveyed said marijuana for medical purposes should be made legal, with strongest support in the 50-plus age group
http://www.theguardian.com/society/2015/oct/26/legalised-medical-marijuana-opposed-by-only-7-of-australians-poll-shows
Latest killings in Hwange national park make 62 elephants that have been poisoned by poachers for their ivory tusks in the African country in October
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/oct/26/22-more-elephants-poisoned-cyanide-zimbabwe-reserve
Is Diamond Joe Hockey a double dipper? And let’s not do anything about fixing negative gearing, then. Your news of the day, reduced to a snarky rant.
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/view-from-the-street#ixzz3phogMRyk