ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition

ReachTEL adds strength to the impression of an expanding Coalition lead, while a small-sample Morgan poll has Bill Shorten finishing fourth as preferred Labor leader.

The Seven Network had a poll this evening from ReachTEL, which records a Coalition lead of 53-47 – a substantial shift on the 50-50 result it recorded on September 15, the evening after the leadership change. That’s all there is from that poll at this stage, but there were some headline-grabbing results today from a Morgan poll, conducted by telephone from a fairly small sample of 574. Bill Shorten could manage only fourth place on the question of preferred Labor leader, with Tanya Plibersek leading on 27% (up a point since July), Anthony Albanese second on 23% (up four), Wayne Swan third on 10% (steady) and Shorten down three to 9%. By contrast, Malcolm Turnbull’s first result for preferred Liberal leader as prime minister has him gaining from 44% to 64%, with Julie Bishop on 12% (down three), Tony Abbott on 8% (down five) and Scott Morrison on 4% (down one). The current leaders’ ratings were 66% approval and 16% disapproval for Turnbull, 25% approval (up one) and 62% disapproval (up two) for Shorten, and Turbull leading 76-14 as preferred prime minister.

UPDATE: GhostWhoVotes relates that ReachTEL has Turnbull leading Shorten 68.9-31.1 on preferred prime minister, with 40.2% saying Labor should replace Shorten as leader versus 26.0% opposed.

UPDATE 2: Full results from ReachTEL here. The sample was 3574 – big even by ReachTEL’s standards – with primary votes of 46.7% for the Coalition (up 3.4%), 33.0% for Labor (down 2.9%) and 11.3% for the Greens (down 0.6%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,530 comments on “ReachTEL: 53-47 to Coalition”

Comments Page 2 of 31
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  1. mikehilliard

    [
    K17

    Yep, the RWnutters are still there in numbers, breathing down Mal’s neck.]
    Same thing that came to mind when I heard whatever is going to be proposed for the SSM thingo will be “taken to cabinet” first. Should make for a good punch up.

  2. K17:

    If the coalition is re-elected I wouldn’t be surprised to see an ETS on the table again.

    That’s assuming the party numpties don’t wreck things.

  3. Just to repeat my response to TBA’s question on the previous thread (see also 16 above):

    [“And what happens if they vote Gay Marriage down which is exactly what is going to happen now even with a free vote?”]

    If the House does not pass a bill allowing same sex marriage or if the House passes it and the Senate rejects it, the law stays as it is. Disappointing for those who care deeply about the issue but that’s democracy. There is nothing preventing proponents of change having another go later, that’s also democracy.”

  4. Sheesh. Bad night for the lemmings. Morgan sample is tiny, but some of those numbers are eye-opening…

    #Morgan Poll Preferred PM (ALP Voters): Turnbull 58 (+8) Shorten 31 (-13) #auspol

    Turnbull is preferred-PM by almost 30 points by Labor voters!

  5. Doyley:

    Yes that pretty much sums up the policy state at the moment. They can’t let go of Abbott’s stuff, but at the same time recognise that hanging onto it all comprosmises their re-election.

  6. [Glen
    ….How can a party manage 48% TPP with their leader in single figures? This cannot continue; something will give.]

    Hey Glen,

    Why did Bruce Bilson give up a Ministry after the leadership spill?

  7. DOYLEY – Malcolm’s honeymoon may be greatly to Labor’s advantage because it will persuade the LNP they don’t have to do anything.

  8. [The Lorax
    ….Sheesh. Bad night for the lemmings. Morgan sample is tiny, but some of those numbers are eye-opening…

    #Morgan Poll Preferred PM (ALP Voters): Turnbull 58 (+8) Shorten 31 (-13) #auspol

    Turnbull is preferred-PM by almost 30 points by Labor voters!]

    Perhaps they are wiser than we thought!
    🙂

  9. Kevin,

    Turnbull has locked himself out of any change to Direct Action and any form of trading scheme and he has a signed agreement with the nationals to do nothing more than already legislated so even a increas inthe Renewable energy target is off limits.

    Where to go without rocking the internal boat ?

    Cheers.

  10. If Turnbull gets 100 seats, at least 50 will go to Bernardi’s, Chistensens and younger versions of Scott Morison, Eric Abetz, Kevin Andrews and (shudder) Tony Abbott. No, to purge their ugly right wing, the ‘Liberals’ need to be exiled to opposition for a decade of more.

  14. The Royal Commission. The story the right wing are covering up
    Under questioning from counsel for the CFMEU, John Agius SC, Fontana:

    • Admitted he had never attempted to contact the CFMEU to discuss concerns about organised crime links or to jointly attempt “cultural change”.
    • Was unaware that the CFMEU had a policy against the use of outlaw motorcycle gangs to collect debts.
    • Had decided building unions needed a “complete overhaul” without ever speaking to them.
    • Revealed that there has never been a CFMEU official charged, or even arrested, in relation to corruption, blackmail or extortion.
    • Admitted he had exaggerated the number of union officials alleged to have been involved in criminal activities – and later admitted he was wrong in claiming that the man, a member of the Comancheros bikie gang, worked for the CFMEU (the man is in fact not even a current financial member of the union).
    • Conceded that the only real evidence police had of bikie gang connections to the CFMEU was one photo of a member of the Comancheros at a public meeting attended by union officials.
    • Admitted having no concrete evidence that bikie gangs had engaged in debt collecting on behalf of the union, and that most allegations brought to police about the CFMEU are anecdotal and end up going nowhere.
    • Admitted that police are as concerned about crime links to directors of labour hire and building companies as they are about the union – but omitted to mention that in his written statement.

  17. [….How can a party manage 48% TPP with their leader in single figures? This cannot continue; something will give.]

    Because the LNPs policy settings are so voter repellent that a massively popular leader still only gives them 52%.

  18. AA

    I happened to watch Fontana give evidence at TURC, and then be cross examined by Counsel for CFMEU. He had made a fool of himself

  19. Steve777 @ 60: Yes, the Liberals need to be exiled for a decade, but right now, the ALP doing its best impression of Jonestown. If they continue on this path it will be the ALP that’s exiled for a decade, and by the end of it, it may well be the Greens that are the dominant progressive party.

  21. [Turnbull is preferred-PM by almost 30 points by Labor voters!]

    Note that these people are still voting Labor, see the 2PP.
    That part of it is sheer relief at the demise of that deadbeat Abbott. Having him as a PM was a massive embarrassment for all Australians.

  22. worth a read (the cross-examination begins on page 202), but here is one choice extract which conveys how it went:

    Agius: You said earlier that there were union officials who were members of outlaw motorcycle gangs?
    Fontana: Yes.
    A. Who are they?
    F: From my knowledge, Norm Meyer.
    A: Is that it?
    F: Probably one that I know of, yes.
    A: You used the plural, you said “union officials”, are you saying that there is one?
    F: There may be more, I don’t know. I’m just giving you an example of one in the statement.
    A: In terms of what you do know, I can’t ask you about what you don’t know. It was your evidence that there was union officials plural?
    F: Yes.
    A: That’s not right, is it?
    F: It might be “union official”.
    A: “A” union official to your knowledge?
    F: To my knowledge, yes.
    A: What is your knowledge that Mr Meyer is a union official as opposed to a union member?
    F: My knowledge is, he holds a position within the union.
    A: What position?
    F: I’d have to go back and have a look at that, I can’t recall, but certainly that’s the advice I’ve been given in relation to him.
    A: Who gave you that advice?
    F: My people.
    A: Who are your people?
    F: From the intel area.
    A: The police intelligence is that Mr Meyer is a union official?
    F: I believe so, yes.
    A: Would it surprise you to know that Mr Meyer is a member of the union but is not a union official?
    F: If that’s the case, I’ll acknowledge that.
    A: Would it surprise you to know that he has not paid any union dues in relation to his membership since October 2012?
    F: I don’t know what his a status is in terms of payments.

    And after a few more questions comes Fontana’s crucial concession:

    A: So there’s no intelligence or evidence that any union officials of the CFMEU are members of an outlaw motorcycle gang?
    F: Not to my knowledge.

  23. Mike Connell. Thiess Manager of HR etc
    16 Q. The question I really want you to focus on is this,
    17 and it may be that because you weren’t at this meeting and
    18 it was a long time ago you can’t shed any light on it, but
    19 I just want to ask you whether, to your knowledge, the
    20 discussion that is recorded there about “1 industrial
    21 officer, 3 organisers (1 OH&S)” related to the proposal
    22 that I have been asking you about, namely, that there was
    23 some arrangement or understanding pursuant to which the
    24 cost of an organiser or more organisers would be defrayed?
    25 A. You raised that with me in the private hearing. It’s
    26 a piece of fiction,/b>

  24. THE royal commission into trade unions is a tabloid dream.

    Every day, the commission’s media staff dish up juicy allegations of slush funds, threats of violence, organised crime links, and the like, and every day, the journos lap it up, churning out lurid yarns for the nightly television news and the next day’s paper.

    It’s money for jam for lazy journalists: sensational yarns served up on a platter. Whether the allegations are true or not rarely enters the picture – it’s all about the attention-grabbing headline.

  25. I was wondering when Chicken Little would appear. Don’t worry folks, the sky is still up there. just carry on with what you are doing.

  26. It wouldn’t be perceived as panic if BS stepped down of his own volition. People would see it as a reasonable response to the fact that the Coalition now have their strongest communicator and persuader in the top job. It makes sense for Labor to do the same. I mean, Christ, the people aren’t punishing the Coalition for “panicking” a month ago. There can be electoral rewards for adjusting to reality.

  27. TrueBlueAussie@19

    Labor can start by stop pissing and moaning about the Royal Commission into Union Corruption which has already laid charges against 30 or so Union Heavies. It looks desperate.

    Also Labor is irrelevant in 21st Century Australia. They are like a more useless version of the Liberal Party

    WRONG! as usual.
    The TURC has laid no charges as that is not what RCs do.

  29. Our msm love Mal more than those within his own party

    [Rowan
    Rowan – ‏@MalSplianing

    Every journalist is doing a Friday fluff piece about the Mal-love-fest – We have returned to 2013 Abbott days when every journalist sold him
    2:15 AM – 23 Oct 2015
    3 RETWEETS2 FAVORITES]

  30. Wonder what the Abbottites will do if Turnbull not only wins the next election but increases the number of seats the Coalition hold.

    Blame the Unions? Muslims? Refugees? ISIS? Gays?

    We can be sure of one thing – it won’t be an adult response

  31. TrueBlueAussie@19

    How about an RC into the Liberal Party, especially NSW,QLD and Victorian branches of the Liberal Party.

    $2 million gone missing in VIC, Newman conflict of interest, and a whole whack of stuff in NSW ICAC with what 13 or so liberals on the side line ?

  32. zoidlord

    Posted Friday, October 23, 2015 at 9:11 pm | Permalink

    When Andrew Bolt comments on NBN, you know it’s bad news for Libs:

    I thought the article more an attack on Turnbull that any sort of support for a real NBN instead one Liberal one held together with chewing gum and sticking tape

  35. Turnbull is so lame, that he cannot even fix a project that someone else left him, some crappy Minister he his, maybe he should get Pyne, Mr Fixer in?

  36. zoidlord

    Posted Friday, October 23, 2015 at 9:13 pm | Permalink

    TrueBlueAussie@19

    The $48,000 misuse of credit cards by the same person who ripped of the Vic Libs, that the TAS libs refuse to call for the police to investigate.
    The Liberals are corrupt to their core and refuse to have the police investigate which is proof they support this type of corruption among their own

  38. Appropos of nothing in particular, Malcolm Turnbull passes Arthur Fadden on Sunday to become our 25th longest-serving PM (of 29). Arthur Fadden was our shortest-serving ‘permenant’ (non caretaker) PM.

  41. While it would be better for Shorten to not seem to be so far behind Turnbull in the popularity contest, this not because Turnbull has not put a foot wrong, he has not put a foot anywhere.

    For the gloaters and the jibbers – not to mention the so-called Labor supporters who also think Turnbull is a “nice man” – they should enjoy these few weeks as the sun is shining all over the place for Turnbull.

    Reminds one of the halcyon days of Rudds ascendancy….60-40 was it then?

    The Labor voters who claim to prefer Turnbull to Shorten are probably like the rest of us – still basking in the clean air of Abbott’s demise.

    It won’t last for ever. In fact, listening to Morrison trot out the time-worn Liberal cliche, that if you don’t like you bank, go to another, reminds me of just how shallow they really are.

    Now if Labor were in office…………the shrieks about “my mortgage payments going up….all due to Labor….” would be all we would hear from the MSM and conservative politicians.

    Actually, it’s Dullsville…Turnbull has still done nothing and Shorten is much the same as he was.

    But, it must be said, the horses are a lot more settled.

  42. Bill Shorten really has to go.

    It’s a question of doing it now, and giving Labor a very
    outside chance of beating Turnbull at the next election
    under Opposition leader Tanya Plibersek, or waiting until
    the electoral drubbing next year – and getting rid of
    Shorten then.

  43. Zoilord, I can’t believe that the biggest infrastructure build in Australian history will not be a major issue at the next election. People might finally have to pay attention. That’s my prayer anyway

  45. TBA – everything you’ve said over the last hour

    The carbon tax also passed through parliament. It’s a shame the conservatives didn’t just accept the parliament’s vote on it, isn’t it?

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