BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Coalition

After a weak result from Newspoll took a bite out of the Coalition’s poll aggregate reading last week, a strong one from Ipsos causes it to rally this time around, while Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings continue to soar to new heights.

New results for the poll aggregate this week from Ipsos, Essential Research and Roy Morgan, with the Ipsos result being the pollster’s first since the leadership change. It’s this result that’s resposible for a solid 0.7% shift in favour of the Coalition, since the other two pollsters both produced results consistent with their established Turnbull era form. I’ve now changed the state-level calculations from a weighted average to a trend measure, the effect of which is to boost considerably the Coalition’s score in New South Wales while reducing it somewhat in Queensland and Western Australia. The Coalition is accordingly up two this week on its seat tally in New South Wales but down one each in Queensland and Western Australia, adding up to no net gain despite the improvement on voting intention. Ipsos provided new leadership ratings this week, giving Malcolm Turnbull a big boost on his already strong personal approval. Ipsos’s numbers for Bill Shorten were similar to what he’s been getting from other pollsters but well below his past form from Ipsos, and his net approval rating accordingly takes another hit.

Additionally:

• The Herald-Sun reports that Helen Kroger, who won a Victorian Senate seat in 2007 but lost it in 2013 after being demoted from second to third on the party ticket, will seek preselection for the lower house seat of Bruce in south-eastern Melbourne. The seat is to be vacated at the election by the retirement of Alan Griffin, who has held the seat since gaining it for Labor on the back of a favourable redistribution in 1996, but retained a margin of just 1.8% in 2013. However, Kroger is said to face a “bitter preselection battle” from the party’s candidate for the seat in 2013, Emanuele Cicchiello, a former Knox councillor and teacher at Lighthouse Christian College. Labor’s new candidate for the seat is Julian Hill, an executive with the Victorian government’s Department of Economic Development and former mayor of Port Phillip, who won preselection earlier this year uncontested.

David Johnston of the Border Mail reports that two candidates will contest the Nationals preselection for the northern Victorian seat of Indi, which independent Cathy McGowan won from Liberal MP Sophie Mirabella in 2013: Wangaratta businessman Martin Corboy, and former Yackandandah publican Gregory Lawrence.

• The South Australian government has introduced a number of electoral and constitutional reform bills to parliament, the latter of which will require passage at a referendum to be held in conjunction at the next election. The electoral bill proposes an end to preferential voting for its Legislative Council, with the existing system to be replaced by the straightforward Sainte-Laguë closed list system for allocating seats in proportion to aggregate vote shares. The constitutional bills propose removing the Legislative Council’s power to block the regular annual supply bills, and introducing a double dissolution mechanism very like the one in operation federally.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,223 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Coalition”

  1. I may well have another piece on the SSM plebiscite ructions over the weekend. Some very revealing comments by anti-SSM forces this week.

  2. TrueBlueAussie@1134

    Who here thinks Labors going to be in the 20%’s by the time the election rolls around with Bill Shorten as leader?

    Me! Me!

    You boasted abbott was a modern day George Washington.

    That Campbell was there for 3 terms.

    That the tories would win in Victoria.

    That Billy Gordon would bring down the Labor Government maonths and months ago.

    That Turnbull was a leaking S.O.B who you would NOT vote for.

    Now you cheer Abbott sharpening knives for a come back.

    You just may be right though in saying Turnbull is a *fake*.

  3. The plebiscite should be had at the election if it reduces the cost. As for the rubbish that who you vote for will make a difference on yes or no that could be quite easily eliminated of all parties agree the result will be binding.

  4. Media release, Australian Marriage Equalit, 21/10/2015:
    http://www.australianmarriageequality.org/2015/10/21/media-release-advocates-call-for-fair-uncomplicated-path-to-marriage-equality/
    [Marriage equality advocates say a plebiscite on the issue must by “fair and uncomplicated” and say their focus continues to be on building support in parliament.

    News reports indicate the Government may be considering passing legislation in this term of parliament which ensures that a “yes” vote automatically triggers marriage equality, essentially bypassing the next parliament.

    Australian Marriage Equality national director, Rodney Croome, said

    “The idea of this parliament binding the next parliament by handing legislative power directly to the people is a novel one that requires substantial input from legal and constitutional experts.”

    “In the meantime, our focus is on building a clear majority of MPs in support of marriage equality in parliament as a guarantee that reform is passed.”

    “There are different models for a plebiscite and whatever path we go down the model has to be fair and uncomplicated.”

    “Marriage equality is a simple issue of love and fairness and Australians don’t want to see the debate descend into squabbles over if, when and how there is a public vote.”]

  5. silmaj @ 1140

    [Why on earth we can’t conduct a plebiscite for less than 160 million is beyond me.]

    There are a great many things that are beyond you. This is just one of them. Even if you are an expert at the logistics and expense of holding an election.

  6. Gary

    I wouldn’t assume that the Liberals will win the next election, I think we need to wait until early next year to start and make any firm predictions, the government did suffer a lot of brand damage under Abbott and that wont be repaired overnight.

  7. …dont worry. It appeared on Ghostwhovotes since I last checked there:

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 22m22 minutes ago
    #ReachTEL Poll Federal 2 Party Preferred: L/NP 53 (+3) ALP 47 (-3) #auspol

  8. I suppose it is not too much to begrudge Liberal supporters a few weeks of sunshine in what has been two dreadful years for them.

    That some of them actually believe that when Turbull has to actually make some hard decisions – and they are on the way – that the sun will continue to shine, have very short memories.

    The absolute worst thing that Labor could do is listen to the siren song from either the whinge Labor group or the jibes from the hacks on the other side in regards to Shorten.

    Turbull’s metal has yet to be tested.

  9. For all those concerned about the cost of the SSM Plebiscite – why not advocate to run a Republic referendum and recognition of Aboriginals referendum all at the same time?

    Three birds with one shot.

  10. [Gary
    Posted Friday, October 23, 2015 at 6:38 pm | PERMALINK
    Morgan? Are we serious?
    ]

    Kevin Bonham, a respected psephologist, stated a few days ago that he is now completely excluding it from his aggregate round up. That’s how much faith he puts in it.

    But if the Labor/Shorten haters here want to get their rocks off over it let them I say. If it keeps them amused for a while at least it has served some useful purpose.

  11. Abbott the Professional Speaker

    [Mr Abbott’s preferred topics include advice on leadership, negotiation, election forecast and analysis, current events and Asia.]

    Negotiation? I’m sorry, can’t write any more. I’m hysterical with laughter.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/offers-over-40000-tony-abbott-joins-the-international-speakers-circuit-20151022-gkgjd8.html#ixzz3pNLFTDYK
    Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

  12. This has to be fatal, surely:

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes 35m35 minutes ago
    #Morgan Poll

    Preferred ALP Leader (Shorten excluded, ALP voters): Plibersek 36 (-2)
    Preferred ALP Leader (Shorten excluded): Plibersek 28 (-1) Albanese 24 (+3) Swan 11 (-1)
    Preferred ALP Leader (ALP voters): Shorten 10 (-7) Plibersek 34 (+2) Albanese 21 (+5)
    Preferred ALP Leader: Shorten 9 (-3) Plibersek 27 (+1) Albanese 23 (+4) Swan 10 (0)

    Preferred PM (ALP Voters): Turnbull 58 (+8) Shorten 31 (-13)
    Preferred PM: Turnbull 76 (+6) Shorten 14 (-10)

    Shorten (ALP Voters): Approve 40 (+4) Disapprove 44 (-4)
    Shorten: Approve 25 (+1) Disapprove 62 (+2)

    Turnbull (L/NP Voters): Approve 79 (+8 compared to Abbott) Disapprove 7 (-13)
    Turnbull: Approve 66 (+32 compared to Abbott) Disapprove 16 (-43)

  13. 1152

    I would not put it past Abbott to be plotting a comeback. It would be a delicious prelude to an election (that would hopefully make 1943 look Coalition friendly).

  14. [why not advocate to run a Republic referendum and recognition of Aboriginals referendum all at the same time?]

    It’s a good idea, but the whole point of punting marriage equality to a plebiscite is to delay/kill off progress on the issue.

  15. …if it was just Morgan, you might have a valid point….but its not:

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes Oct 18
    #Ipsos Poll Preferred PM: Turnbull 67 (+28 compared to Abbott) Shorten 21 (-24)

    #Ipsos Poll Shorten: Approve 32 (-7) Disapprove 56 (+7)

    #Ipsos Poll Turnbull: Approve 68 (+33 compared to Abbott) Disapprove 17 (-42)

    #Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 45 (+7) ALP 30 (-6) GRN 14 (-2)

  16. [Gary
    …So a change of ALP leader now will boost them in the polls will it? LOL]

    No.

    I just think if you are betting it would be wise to go Short on Shorten.

  17. [It’s a good idea, but the whole point of punting marriage equality to a plebiscite is to delay/kill off progress on the issue.]

    As the proponent wishes for these other matters.

    I wouldn’t mind plebiscite questions on the Joint Strike Fighter or entitlements for ex-PMs. And I would certainly like one on whether we should stay in the ChAFTA and ratify the TPP.

  18. lizzie@1165

    Abbott the Professional Speaker

    Mr Abbott’s preferred topics include advice on leadership, negotiation, election forecast and analysis, current events and Asia.


    Negotiation? I’m sorry, can’t write any more. I’m hysterical with laughter.

    Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/offers-over-40000-tony-abbott-joins-the-international-speakers-circuit-20151022-gkgjd8.html#ixzz3pNLFTDYK
    Follow us: @theage on Twitter | theageAustralia on Facebook

    Thanks Lizzie, I needed that!

    What a joke that man is. Has he no idea whatsoever? We know the answer.

    May he meet with a profound and long lasting deafening silence.

  19. Boy did Truffles nail The NE all those years ago.

    ‘Rather boisterous and immature’: Malcolm Turnbull’s impression of Tony Abbott when he first met the man in the 1970s

    An article written by Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull back in 1978

    ………‘While he can win support from the students because of the shocking state of affairs in Australia he cannot take the next step and take control himself, because of his conservative moral views.

    ………..‘Abbott is opposed to any legalisation of homosexuality and generally presents an old-fashioned DLP image. The students may be more conservative than they were a few years ago, but they have not swung back to the right as much as that.’

    ……….He has written a number of articles on Australia in The Australian and his press coverage has accordingly given him a stature his rather boisterous and immature rhetoric doesn’t really deserve.’

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3285674/Rather-boisterous-immature-Malcolm-Turnbull-s-description-Tony-Abbott-met-man-1970s-later-ousted-prime-minister.html

  20. Julie Bishop just said Australia can’t help the Indonesians fight fires as we are entering our fire season, I gather she knows that we currently have or recently did have a small team of firefighters helping the Americans with their fire season.

  21. Polls!

    Gawd we are a fickle lot.

    Nothing has changed except Turnballs can string two words, too many words together.

    Perhaps Turnballs was right!

    The voters will eat shit if given a good salesman.

  22. [Happiness
    Posted Friday, October 23, 2015 at 7:00 pm | PERMALINK
    …if it was just Morgan, you might have a valid point….but its not:

    GhostWhoVotes ‏@GhostWhoVotes Oct 18
    #Ipsos Poll Preferred PM: Turnbull 67 (+28 compared to Abbott) Shorten 21 (-24)

    #Ipsos Poll Shorten: Approve 32 (-7) Disapprove 56 (+7)

    #Ipsos Poll Turnbull: Approve 68 (+33 compared to Abbott) Disapprove 17 (-42)

    #Ipsos Poll Federal Primary Votes: L/NP 45 (+7) ALP 30 (-6) GRN 14 (-2)]

    ML

    The jury is still out on Ipsos. If the next Newspoll/Galaxy is in the same ball park you may have a point.

    Until then try not to hyperventilate too much. Your wet dream of 100 LNP seats after the next election is still nothing more than a fantasy, although I will concede that the Liberals will almost certainly win.

  23. Leadership is a very subjective thing.

    I never ever understood why the population liked Rudd so much.

    I understood why they would like Julia to start with – the gender thing and all that.

  24. [The voters will eat shit if given a good salesman.]

    Well, maybe not a good salesman but one with all the appearances of it. 😀

  25. How long before the Self-Preservation Gene kicks in for the ALP Caucus and they ditch Shorten?

    Plibbers must be toey as a Roman Sandal.

  26. Lets see turnbull do stuff – instead of just talking and having MSM lick his boots.

    Not ruling things in or out atm = doing nothing atm.

    With the wind down to end of year, we may not see much at all.

  27. [Malcolm Turnbull has called an end to scare campaigns in politics while also flagging new borrowing to fund public transport projects, criticising banks for jacking up interest rates, and signalling to Beijing that it must respect the international rules-based order.
    Declaring “I am by nature a reformer”, the Prime Minister used a wide-ranging newspaper interview, his first since taking the reins in September, to set out his priorities, which include a “bigger tax base” but with lower rates, an expanded role for Canberra in nation building, and a break from the divisive Abbott-Hockey rhetoric about ending the age of entitlement.]

    Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/i-am-a-reformer-malcolm-turnbull-sets-course-for-growth-and-unity-20151022-gkgj3k.html#ixzz3pNVHTPbp
    Follow us: @smh on Twitter | sydneymorningherald on Facebook

  28. There is a little variability. Last polls from each pollster (I think):

    In order of RTL-Mor-Ess-Ips-New
    TPP (LNP) –53—-56—-51—53—-50

    LNP Prim –47—-47—-44—-45—-43
    ALP Prim. –33—-28—-36—-30—-35

    Pref PM —-??–(+62)—-??–(+46)–(+58)

    T Net App –??–(+50)—-??—-??—(+25)
    S Net App –??—(-37)—??—-??—(-25)

  29. [Declaring “I am by nature a reformer”, the Prime Minister used a wide-ranging newspaper interview, his first since taking the reins in September, to set out his priorities, which include a “bigger tax base” but with lower rates, an expanded role for Canberra in nation building, and a break from the divisive Abbott-Hockey rhetoric about ending the age of entitlement.]

    He certainly has the rhetoric down pat. He just needs to make good his word.

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