BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Coalition

After a weak result from Newspoll took a bite out of the Coalition’s poll aggregate reading last week, a strong one from Ipsos causes it to rally this time around, while Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings continue to soar to new heights.

New results for the poll aggregate this week from Ipsos, Essential Research and Roy Morgan, with the Ipsos result being the pollster’s first since the leadership change. It’s this result that’s resposible for a solid 0.7% shift in favour of the Coalition, since the other two pollsters both produced results consistent with their established Turnbull era form. I’ve now changed the state-level calculations from a weighted average to a trend measure, the effect of which is to boost considerably the Coalition’s score in New South Wales while reducing it somewhat in Queensland and Western Australia. The Coalition is accordingly up two this week on its seat tally in New South Wales but down one each in Queensland and Western Australia, adding up to no net gain despite the improvement on voting intention. Ipsos provided new leadership ratings this week, giving Malcolm Turnbull a big boost on his already strong personal approval. Ipsos’s numbers for Bill Shorten were similar to what he’s been getting from other pollsters but well below his past form from Ipsos, and his net approval rating accordingly takes another hit.


• The Herald-Sun reports that Helen Kroger, who won a Victorian Senate seat in 2007 but lost it in 2013 after being demoted from second to third on the party ticket, will seek preselection for the lower house seat of Bruce in south-eastern Melbourne. The seat is to be vacated at the election by the retirement of Alan Griffin, who has held the seat since gaining it for Labor on the back of a favourable redistribution in 1996, but retained a margin of just 1.8% in 2013. However, Kroger is said to face a “bitter preselection battle” from the party’s candidate for the seat in 2013, Emanuele Cicchiello, a former Knox councillor and teacher at Lighthouse Christian College. Labor’s new candidate for the seat is Julian Hill, an executive with the Victorian government’s Department of Economic Development and former mayor of Port Phillip, who won preselection earlier this year uncontested.

David Johnston of the Border Mail reports that two candidates will contest the Nationals preselection for the northern Victorian seat of Indi, which independent Cathy McGowan won from Liberal MP Sophie Mirabella in 2013: Wangaratta businessman Martin Corboy, and former Yackandandah publican Gregory Lawrence.

• The South Australian government has introduced a number of electoral and constitutional reform bills to parliament, the latter of which will require passage at a referendum to be held in conjunction at the next election. The electoral bill proposes an end to preferential voting for its Legislative Council, with the existing system to be replaced by the straightforward Sainte-Laguë closed list system for allocating seats in proportion to aggregate vote shares. The constitutional bills propose removing the Legislative Council’s power to block the regular annual supply bills, and introducing a double dissolution mechanism very like the one in operation federally.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,223 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Coalition”

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  1. Must be about time for Turnbull to win a Nobel Peace Prize or maybe just the Sydney Peace Prize – like Obama – in anticipation.

  2. Dee – That is, of course, a possibility. But if I was Dyson Heydon, I would brush over the Shorten situation quite lightly (maybe saying that perhaps there should be some regulation of side deals, blah, blah) and use that to show it was never a witch-hunt. Then he can quietly retire and count his money.
    Now, of course, he may be too stupid, or embittered, to do that. But if he goes after shorten there will be a firestorm.
    We will see.

  3. Many at the ABC would live in Turnbull’s seat or other similar seats, this was why I wasn’t surprised by the media’s reaction to the Caymans story as many of them wouldn’t be surprised by people having such investment strategies.

  4. Medicinal cannabis
    [And it’s a decision that has bipartisan support. The Labor opposition gazumped the government by revealing its support for a nationwide medicinal cannabis scheme the night before Ley announced the new policy, while the Greens have been calling for the legalisation of medicinal cannabis for years. In fact, it’s not easy these days to find anyone who will speak out against it.]

  5. Although I should add that many at the ABC in Melbourne would live in places like Brunswick and Fitzroy, which have very little in common with places like Wentworth although the gap has closed over recent decades.

  6. Re: Roy Morgan…

    Turnbull leads on all key demographics: gender;

    Political party – ALP supporters: Turnbull 58% (up 8%) cf. Shorten 31% (down 13%). Lead to Mr. Turnbull 27% (up 21%);

    and by State

  7. Compact Crank@1102

    One thing on Joe Hockey’s record – he beat the ALP and won Office.

    abbott claims he beat Labor and HE won office.

    Hockey was always a dope and he leaves an utter failure.

    His so called *audited costings* at both the 2010 and 2013 Elections got his ‘auditors’ sanctioned by their professional bodies.

  8. [ ratsak
    Posted Friday, October 23, 2015 at 5:33 pm | Permalink

    For Joe the rot well and truly set in when Howard appointed him to Minister for Workplace relations. He was probably way out of his depth long before that, but as an outer minister his stuff ups weren’t front page news. ]

    Yes. He made a mess of the FAI situation and howard had to take charge of it all – particularly the media side of it.

    As a result, hockey was demoted.

    Lack of other ‘talent’ resulted in his comeback.

  9. Is voting in the SSM plebiscite compulsory? Given plebiscites aren’t binding, I don’t think voting in them should be binding.

  10. sceptic

    [That’s because so many of them have him has their local member 🙂 ]
    Bingo ! One of my pet “conspiracy theories” developed after seeing that list of what senior journos earn, even ABC ones. Their income brackets would mean their places of residence and social circles would very much be in the 1% ‘burbs . Senior management even more so.

  11. [Is voting in the SSM plebiscite compulsory? ]

    It’s compulsory if you are in favour of marriage equality; definitely not otherwise.

  12. TPOF

    [It’s compulsory if you are in favour of marriage equality; definitely not otherwise.]
    It will be even more “compulsory” for the Bernardi , Erica demographic. The non voters will be the Meh demographic and that could be the fly in the ointment.

  13. poroti

    True, this is why I think many of them seem to believe that the average Australian family is on like $160k or whatever Hockey use to claim was the average.

    I often see two very high profile ABC political journalist in Melbourne’s inner east, one thing which happens when you live in well off places for a long time, they soon become “ordinary”

    This is why I give Hockey 5% excuse for some of his gaffes.

  14. poroti – probably the other way – that’s how it got up in Ireland – low turnout with a large number not casting a vote.

  15. ACT Greens Senate candidates for 2016 election:
    […economist and United Nations humanitarian worker Christina Hobbs as the party’s lead ACT Senate candidate…

    Immigration lawyer Carly Anne Saeedi​ will stand against Labor’s Andrew Leigh in the lower house seat of Fraser, and community worker Patricia Cahill will stand against Gai Brodtmann​ in the seat of Canberra. Medical Association for the Prevention of War vice-president Sue Warham​ will run as Senate support candidate for the Greens.]

  16. From my reading of Antony Green’s article, I gather that it’s up to Turnbull whether voting in the plebiscite is compulsory or not.

    I’m not sure whether making it compulsory would make it more or less likely to pass. I would guess it would be more likely to pass if voluntary.

  17. [sceptic
    Posted Friday, October 23, 2015 at 5:00 pm | PERMALINK
    On Hockey

    General verdict: Australia’s worst treasurer.]

    Yes, it’s ironic isn’t it, considering his constant derision of Wayne Swan. Despite all his bluster, Hockey was just way out of his depth.

    [Advocates say marriage equality research dispels concerns about concerted opposition to the reform among migrants living in Australians.

    It is a form of stereotyping to suggest migrants oppose marriage equality when the fact is that many are acutely aware of the damage done by prejudice and discrimination from their own personal experience.”

    “It’s also clear from the ANU research that many migrants do not have strong views on the issue.”]

  19. We shouldn’t even be having a plebiscite. The Liberals are telling Australians we have to spend $160 million on an opinion poll to tell the Parliament how it should do its job.

    And all because the Coalition is hopelessly wedged itself.

    If a Labor Government proposed spending $160 million because it was internally riven over an issue, the Coalition and the media would go apeshit. And justifiably so.

    The initial public support for a plebiscite on the matter is largely because people are not focussed on the cost/benefit. Most people just want it off the political agenda one and for all and recognise that it will happen sooner or later. Once Labor starts to tell the public what that money could better be spent on the mood will quickly change.

  20. [“#Slovenia faces crisis as 34000 #refugees enter after #Hungary closed its border w “]

    They’d be the illegals that just burnt down their detention centre wouldn’t they?

  21. WB or KB

    Further to my 1131, has any polling been done asking respondents if they want a plebiscite in the knowledge of how much it would cost, i.e.:

    the AEC has advised that a separate plebiscite would cost $158 million (I think that was the precise figure). Would you support holding a plebiscite at that cost?

  22. Who here thinks Labors going to be in the 20%’s by the time the election rolls around with Bill Shorten as leader?

    Me! Me!

  23. I’m surprised something Turnbull said in QT hasn’t had more attention, when he was asked by Shorten about the potential risk of a nasty no campaign, Turnbull remarked that he would have expected Shorten to challenge him on the cost which he agreed was excessive.

  24. [“We shouldn’t even be having a plebiscite. The Liberals are telling Australians we have to spend $160 million on an opinion poll to tell the Parliament how it should do its job.”]

    The problem isn’t the free vote in Parliament… the problem is that the Australian Left won’t accept the outcome of that free vote in Parliament.


  25. Hockey was just way out of his depth.

    And Scott will have to rely on his Hill Song brethren at Shirelive Church to boost his popularity during any phone in polls.

    He would be so used to having his confidence boosted by the brethren, go on you can do it God has chosen you.

    Poor Mal brought down by a dud treasurer.

  26. [ Despite all his bluster, Hockey was just way out of his depth.]

    As was –


    The pattern being – the more senior they were, the greater likelihood they were duds.

    All talk but incompetent.

  27. True Blue

    The losing side wont like the result, the right will sulk as much as the left will, we already have Eric Abertz indicating that he wont accept the yes vote.

  28. [“The losing side wont like the result, the right will sulk as much as the left will, we already have Eric Abertz indicating that he wont accept the yes vote.”]

    He will accept a Yes Vote.

    The large majority of Libs will support whatever the outcome is.. that’s the difference between the left and the right.

    Have a look at Bill Shorten and the Greens for a party willing to ignore the outcome of the Plebiscite. Has Bill committed to accepting the will of Australians?

  29. We can, the parliament make the law then we hold a normal election and we pass judgement on the government.

    The cost seems to be increasing every week, last week it seemed to be $130 million, now its a $160 million

  30. True Blue

    I suspect if we are having a public vote, then that would mean Turnbull has been re-elected and Shorten is gone from either the ALP leadership or parliament.

  31. Joint Strike Fighters (aka F-35s) and defence spending:

    [Opposition Leader Bill Shorten has backed the purchase.

    It was Labor who believed that the Joint Strike Fighter was an appropriate addition to our air power,” he told Radio National.

    “There had been some problems in terms of aspects of the aircraft but it appears that they have been ironed out.”]

    [In Australia this would translate to a cost blowout of almost $100 million, because the Federal Government has committed to purchasing another 70 new Joint Strike Fighters.

    On Wednesday evening Defence Force officials told a Senate Estimates hearing the total budget for the F-35A project was $17 billion.]

    The Greens, 2012:
    [In contrast to the major parties the Greens would like to see Australia move away from the JSF altogether:

    The Joint Strike Fighter project is a white elephant ‐ Australia should cut its losses. ..Australia should look to other, less costly options.]

  32. TBA @1136: The problem isn’t the free vote in Parliament… the problem is that the Australian Left won’t accept the outcome of that free vote in Parliament

    What a ridiclous statement. Please explain. If something is passed by parliament, it becomes law.

    And while you’re about it, please justify spending $153 million to sort out the Parliamentary Liberal Party’s internal divisions. Possibly it was never intended to actually have a plebiscite.

    What about a plebiscite on defunding health and education? On University deregulation?

  33. Compact Crank

    [that’s how it got up in Ireland]

    It just means the vote measures the strength of those that gave weight to the issue. The Meh demographic didn’t care either way and neutral. So overall national opinion was measured.

    Despite coming from an non compulsory voting position I now support compulsory voting. If only because it really is a tiny “burden” . But I think there should be an option that India has “None of the Above”.

    Having that option means all parties will get a message of how large the screw the lot of you vote is. My “None of the Above” belief came after being faced , in a state by-election , with voting for a candidate from a then toxic Labor government, a prick of a Liberal candidate, a religious nutter , the DLP or a couple of people of whom I had heard nothing.

  34. [I suspect if we are having a public vote, then that would mean Turnbull has been re-elected and Shorten is gone from either the ALP leadership or parliament.]
    I think you can assume the Libs will win the next election. I don’t think you can assume Shorten will go.

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