BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Coalition

After a weak result from Newspoll took a bite out of the Coalition’s poll aggregate reading last week, a strong one from Ipsos causes it to rally this time around, while Malcolm Turnbull’s personal ratings continue to soar to new heights.

New results for the poll aggregate this week from Ipsos, Essential Research and Roy Morgan, with the Ipsos result being the pollster’s first since the leadership change. It’s this result that’s resposible for a solid 0.7% shift in favour of the Coalition, since the other two pollsters both produced results consistent with their established Turnbull era form. I’ve now changed the state-level calculations from a weighted average to a trend measure, the effect of which is to boost considerably the Coalition’s score in New South Wales while reducing it somewhat in Queensland and Western Australia. The Coalition is accordingly up two this week on its seat tally in New South Wales but down one each in Queensland and Western Australia, adding up to no net gain despite the improvement on voting intention. Ipsos provided new leadership ratings this week, giving Malcolm Turnbull a big boost on his already strong personal approval. Ipsos’s numbers for Bill Shorten were similar to what he’s been getting from other pollsters but well below his past form from Ipsos, and his net approval rating accordingly takes another hit.

Additionally:

• The Herald-Sun reports that Helen Kroger, who won a Victorian Senate seat in 2007 but lost it in 2013 after being demoted from second to third on the party ticket, will seek preselection for the lower house seat of Bruce in south-eastern Melbourne. The seat is to be vacated at the election by the retirement of Alan Griffin, who has held the seat since gaining it for Labor on the back of a favourable redistribution in 1996, but retained a margin of just 1.8% in 2013. However, Kroger is said to face a “bitter preselection battle” from the party’s candidate for the seat in 2013, Emanuele Cicchiello, a former Knox councillor and teacher at Lighthouse Christian College. Labor’s new candidate for the seat is Julian Hill, an executive with the Victorian government’s Department of Economic Development and former mayor of Port Phillip, who won preselection earlier this year uncontested.

• David Johnston of the Border Mail reports that two candidates will contest the Nationals preselection for the northern Victorian seat of Indi, which independent Cathy McGowan won from Liberal MP Sophie Mirabella in 2013: Wangaratta businessman Martin Corboy, and former Yackandandah publican Gregory Lawrence.

• The South Australian government has introduced a number of electoral and constitutional reform bills to parliament, the latter of which will require passage at a referendum to be held in conjunction at the next election. The electoral bill proposes an end to preferential voting for its Legislative Council, with the existing system to be replaced by the straightforward Sainte-Laguë closed list system for allocating seats in proportion to aggregate vote shares. The constitutional bills propose removing the Legislative Council’s power to block the regular annual supply bills, and introducing a double dissolution mechanism very like the one in operation federally.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,223 thoughts on “BludgerTrack: 51.9-48.1 to Coalition”

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  1. victoria@41

    Dont know who Faine is speaking to. It is re tax reform. This person believes that Turnbull is a great communicator and he will be able to deliver tax reform. Also reckons Morrison is a terrific person and will be a great treasurer.

    Vic — Ha!

    We recall when those names were abbott, hockey & mesma who were ‘gunna’ do all of that 🙂

    The same old cow pad just different flies.

  2. Sky News Australia
    Sky News Australia – Verified account ‏@SkyNewsAust

    Abetz: There are a number of issues with the new prime ministership.
    3:21 PM – 21 Oct 2015
    1 RETWEET

  3. Sky News Australia
    Sky News Australia – Verified account ‏@SkyNewsAust

    Abetz says the coalition government would have won the next election irrespective of who the leader was.
    3:22 PM – 21 Oct 2015
    1 RETWEET

  5. Zoomster

    Yes higher temperatures do kill and there may be a case for comparison but urban smog kills. Yes it is mostly particulates that kill, but it is stupid to ignore it, especially as the effects are age related they will become more significant as the population ages.

  6. Warren Entch is trying to prevent any future Coalition Members from refusing to pass Marriage Equality, even after it has been passed in a costly and unnecessary plebicite.

    According to Eric, stopping Coalition members from breaking their promise counts as an ambush.

    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/coalition-samesex-marriage-plan-an-ambush-and-thought-bubble-eric-abetz-20151021-gkf99w.html

    With such clowns in the party, Turnbull has no hope of lasting a full 12 months of keeping his party together.

  8. The Greens are having their national conference in a few weeks (not that you can readily find links to it from their website – I had to google it to find the dates).

    A Greens supporter hopes the party will implement a more democratic system for electing the leader.

    Democracy is – in theory at least – supposed to encourage leaders to govern in the interests of everyone, rather than an elite minority. Democracy guards against abuses of power by ensuring that those who hold powerful positions can only remain in control as long as they have the support of the people they represent.

    But the Australian Greens’ current system for selecting a leader is opaque, not particularly democratic, and fails to adequately guard against the corrupting influence of power.

    The Greens’ 2015 National Conference kicks off in Adelaide on November 6. The party hasn’t yet reached consensus on the question of leadership selection, and it’ll be interesting to see how much attention the issue gets. I expect that many delegates won’t have the time to engage with the strong arguments against leaving leadership selection to a small group of people who already wield significant power within the party. But maybe I’ll be pleasantly surprised.

    …

    The Australian Greens website lists ‘Grassroots Participatory Democracy’ as one of the party’s four core pillars, saying “In contrast to the two major parties, which are run by executives in head office, the Greens involve members in key decisions and our campaigns are powered by thousands of ordinary people volunteering their time, skills and support.”

    Putting aside that statement’s unconstructive dig at the other parties, are we seriously suggesting that selecting the national leader of the party is not a ‘key decision’?

    https://newmatilda.com/2015/10/15/the-most-common-arguments-by-greens-against-directly-electing-leaders-and-why-theyre-wrong/

  9. Ahh, reading back on victoria’s post – that was how Abetz was planning to break his word.

    “we promised to pass Marriage Equality if the plebicite was ‘clear’, not merely if it passed”

    So 50.1% is a pass, but is it a clear pass? What about 60%? 70%? 80%?

    My guess is, ‘clear’ in Abetz’s eyes will be 1 vote higher than the number that vote yes.

    So the next election is still the true plebicite on ME.

  11. Lizzie

    You are doing a mighty fine job on the dawn shift. A more than able deputy for the ever reliable BK and much appreciated.

    Thanks also to D & M for the cartoons.

  12. daretotread

    Inspired by your post I went to try and find the actual report. No luck as yet but did come across this. Seems a remarkable decision.

    European NOx regulation: an unhealthy decision

    In April, European politicians rejected plans to include nitrogen oxides – while carbon dioxide was approved – as part of ship emissions’ monitoring requirements.

    “Air pollution from shipping, of which NOx and SOx emissions are a big part….”The growth of these emissions, which contribute to acid deposition, formation of deadly fine particles and ozone smog means levels are now on the verge of exceeding all land-based sources combined. NOx from shipping is set to exceed NOx from all other EU sources by 2020 and no regulatory action to prevent it is on the horizon before then.”

    http://www.ship-technology.com/features/featureeuropean-nox-regulation-an-unhealthy-decision-4379600/

  14. confessions,

    When Richard Di Natale was elected by his fed parliamentarians, I wasn’t particularly fussed as I trusted them to make the right decision.

    If members had been able to vote I would have voted for him anyway.

    The fact every Greens Party member can vote in preselection contests and office bearers positions was sufficient for me.

    Having read Jonathan Sri’s article, I am persuaded by the case he puts forward though I have always fallen into this camp as he says:

    Many Greens members would probably prefer that we didn’t need to have a national leader at all. But we do. And that paradigm isn’t shifting any time soon.

    Bob Brown didn’t want to be perceived as a leader; the need for a leader is foisted upon us by a lazy media.

    Looking at the long-term implications of a leadership election model he concludes:

    There will be challenges and divisions and the occasional media beat-up, but if ordinary Greens members remain content to let someone else make the tough decisions for them, they’ll wake up one day to the too-late realisation that they’re handing out how-to-vote cards for a party they no longer control.

    I agree completely. Those members who are financial members only and not active within their local branches might not be aware what is going on and probably do not really care as it is all about policies for them.

    As an active member, I am more aware what is going on internally and grassroots participation and grassroots democracy is important to me as well.

  15. daretotread

    From this it would seem all the manufacturers were gaming the system and pumping out much more than thought.

    Diesel cars made by Renault, Nissan, Hyundai, Citroen, Fiat and Volvo among others emitted far more NOx in more rigorous tests

    Research compiled by Adac, Europe’s largest motoring organisation, shows that some of the diesel cars it examined released over 10 times more NOx than revealed by existing EU tests, using an alternative standard due to be introduced later this decade.
    There is no suggestion of cheating in Adac’s analysis, but only a quarter of the 79 different cars ADAC tested using the WLTC standard matched their official performance on the existing EU test.

    http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/sep/30/wide-range-of-cars-emit-more-pollution-in-real-driving-conditions-tests-show

  16. Missed most of Cassidy Segment with Faine. But he did say that this week Turnbull cleared the back log on social security, bank reforms, CHFTA, etc. Labor have been flatfooted by it all, and are having trouble with Turnbull. They tried with the “wealthy” stuff and may go back to that again at some stage. The real problem for Turnbull he says, is with ssm. Turnbull cannot have his feet in both camps. He needs to decide his approach on this issue

  17. the Greens involve members in key decisions and our campaigns are powered by thousands of ordinary people volunteering their time, skills and support..

    I must be imagining the thousands of ordinary people involved in Labor party policy forums, voting for the leader, preselecting candidates (in the majority of seats), handing out HTVs, leafletting, doorknocking, manning street stalls, selling raffle tickets, attending dinners….

  19. briefly (from previous thread)

    My sentiments as well. I will see if I can attend. The issue runs deep and will not go away. If anything, it will grow in importance.

    Agree completely.

    I’ve been in touch with my friends at the John Curtin Institute of Public Policy (JCIPP) at Curtin Uni. We intend to deliver a seminar – hopefully more than one – on this issue and on indentured workers early in the new year

    Fantastic, well done! If I lived in WA, I would certainly attend 🙂

  20. From Katharine Murphy’s blog today:

    Eric Abetz has moved from the ABC to Sky News. Given he just told the ABC a plebiscite should be followed by a conscience vote, host Kieran Gilbert wants to know if he’ll accept the outcome of the plebiscite if the people vote yes.

    Abetz isn’t entirely definitive on that point. He compares plebiscites to election results. When people voted for Kevin Rudd in 2007, he accepted that. When Julia Gillard formed a minority government in 2010 he accepted that.

    Eric Abetz:

    If the plebiscite is clear and the questions are clear then the Australian people will have had their say.

    It sounds positive but it’s still ambiguous.

    Eric Abetz:

    The parliament will need to take into account the view of the plebiscite, there’s no doubt about that.

    (See what I mean?)

    The thing about the deceptive language that Abetz is deploying is that Turnbull is doing exactly the same thing across a range of fronts. He is giving every impression of actually moving Government policy away from the right while actually leaving it exactly where it is.

    I don’t know how long he can keep this up. Certainly, Abetz does not believe ‘The King is dead’ as he announced to the Senate in a last ditch attempt to keep his Cabinet position. Only in exile. Bonny Prince Tony, the Pretender to the throne.

  21. These dangerous guys are now too close to me for comfort.

    The father-son duo are travelling in a stolen 2013 white Toyota Landcruiser,which is still bearing NSW registration plates BV70WP…

    Police have spanned out across a 100-square-kilometre search zone, which extends as far south as Lilydale. Tactical police remain on standby in Yea in case of arrest.

    “The local community can expect to see a large police presence in the area today as search efforts and patrols will be increased,” police said in a statement on Thursday morning.

    Anyone who sees the men or the vehicle is urged to immediately call triple zero.

    http://www.theage.com.au/national/fugitives-gino-and-mark-stocco-linked-to-two-farm-fires-20151021-gkf83t.html#ixzz3pFLze1ar

  22. In a nutshell. The Abbott/Hockey failure is over. Turnbull and co have unclogged the backlog and put right the bad stuff. Labor have now lost a narrative and need to find their way

  23. May I request a separate thread for discussion of the SA Legislative Council reforms.

    I would also point out that SA has a double dissolution provision already. It is just that it is not very workable because a government is required to take the bill to an election before it is eligible to be used for a DD, making it useless in a first term when the support to win a DD is most likely to be there (remembering also that, unless there is a DD, SA MLCs have a minimum term of 6 years and if there is an election for the House of Assembly before then it is only a House of Assembly election and the MLC`s terms get longer). The DD provision also allows the LC to expand by 2 seats per district, there being only one district since the democratisation of the Legislative Council, indicating it is a rather old provision.

  24. An analysis of the Social Services Legislation Amendment (Family Payments Structural Reform and Participation Measures) Bill 2015:
    https://theconversation.com/family-tax-benefit-savings-trimmed-but-families-with-teenagers-hit-hardest-49496

    On the other hand, the childcare package appears progressive and increases assistance more for low- and middle-income families than for higher-income families. The subsidy for childcare costs is being reduced from 85% to 50% as family incomes rise.

    The net effect would depend on the combination of ages and numbers of children that a family has – although families with teenagers are unlikely to benefit from more generous childcare support. Also, if parents do gain jobs they would become significantly better off – but those who remain unemployed will clearly be losers from the changes.

    Overall, the government’s revised proposals still have some significant negative impacts on low-income families, but they are not as regressive as the 2014 budget.

  25. victoria

    Cassidy always seems to fall over himself to support the Coalition. I wonder how his wife votes. She was the one who pressed Julia into “carbon tax”.

  29. zoomster:

    Yes, all political parties have volunteers who door knock, hand out HTV cards etc etc. This is not a logical or particularly valid argument against member involvement in electing the leadership.

  34. …all the important things that he knew had to be done, such as broadening and increasing the GST and the aforementioned super and negative gearing reform, were stopped by someone else.

    Coincidentally what I’ve been saying shorten should announce as a package.

  36. Poroti

    Absolutely right. Back in 2000, shipping was already emerging here as a source of pollutants. it contributed a surprisingly large share of the pollution in the Sydney air shed and was looking to rise. As controls on diesel emissions form trucks came into effect and as industry closed, shipping will have grown significantly as a share of the pollutant contribution.

    Clearly this is an area that needs regulation. Could be a way for LABOR to act on the Panama and Liberian flagged ships – demand emission controls if they enter Australian waters. Again no jobs to be lost in Australia as we nop longer emply locals in shipping.

    In terms of the vehicles,there are many areas of problem I think.

    1. There is deliberate lying as per VW (absolutely bloody amazing in my view), which reveals a contempt for regulators that may be well deserved,

    2. There are types of converters and other emission reduction technologies that work well at first but then decline rapidly

    3. There are types of converters that require ongoing maintenance to be effective (this is reported as the problem with SUVs and high end cars, because you need to pump in smelly urea). Truckies do not mind but drivers of expensive auto do.

    4. Converters may be less effective because manufacturers choose light weight (for fuel efficiency) over good air pollution control.

    One of the few advantages of having no MV industry may mean that Australia can impose world’s best practice on our vehicle imports- no jobs lost or industry to squeal.

  39. An industry supported by the political duopoly:
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/landmark-pokies-legal-challenge-on-the-cards-20151021-gketox.html

    Poker machines are illegal because their design is deceptive lawyers will argue in a landmark legal action against the multibillion-dollar pokies industry.

    Maurice Blackburn lawyers will argue in a state or federal court that poker machines are in breach of consumer law for misleading and deceptive conduct.

  40. RE: Data Rentation…

    Steve Dalby ‏@Steve_Dalby 16m16 minutes ago

    Steve Dalby Retweeted Allie Coyne

    George Brandis. If he repeats a lie often enough, people will believe it.

    Allie Coyne ‏@alliecoyne 53m53 minutes ago

    “We have had quite positive feedback from industry in our engagement with them” – AGD says on data retention. What did I miss? @LJPatton ?

  41. Foxtel is allowed to pretty much taking over FTA channels (Channel 10):

    CommSec ‏@CommSec 29m29 minutes ago

    ACCC wont oppose acquisitions Foxtel MGMT’s 10% stake in Ten Network & $TEN purchase 24.99% of Multi-Channel Network (MCN) & 10% of Presto

    ACCC is purposely allowing market failure to continue to happen, and the ACCC is a failure of regulatory – it is a toothless tiger.

  42. I made mistake. The additional 2 seats fr the Legislative Council are instead of a DD, not during it.

    The 1970s reforms, except for the franchise reform, make the provision worthless because it would almost certainly elect one ALP and one Liberal, retaining the deadlock. It also refers to Schedule 2, that no longer exists (I presume it was what allocated the districts and seats to the SA LC).

  43. http://www.theage.com.au/comment/building-the-nation-australia-will-soon-outgrow-its-cities-20151019-gkd71x.html

    Big projects such as a high-speed rail link between Sydney and Melbourne, benefits the whole country, but our short-term leaders cannot plan long-term infrastructure.

    The Greens have always supported high-speed rail.

    http://greens.org.au/high-speed-rail

    High speed rail’s time has come, but Australia needs courage and vision to get it moving. The old parties, stuck in the short- term political cycle, lack the will to really embrace this nation-building project. Only the Greens have a vision and a plan to build a clean, efficient, transport future.

    Just when we need to improve the affordability and connectedness between our South-Eastern cities, boost the opportunities of our regional centres, support manufacturing jobs and reduce our transport emissions, the promises of High Speed Rail are here. The Greens stand ready to deliver them.

    As part of the agreement to support the minority Labor government, the Australian Greens secured a $20 million feasibility study into high speed rail. That feasibility study demonstrated that it will cut pollution, enhance business and passenger transport and generate positive economic returns.

  44. “@barriecassidy: Standby for an exciting announcement on the ABC’s next news director.

    ”“@ABCNews24: Shorten: We want to ensure big international #sharingeconomy companies face a reasonable set of rules that uphold workers’ standards.”

  45. Shocking statistics.

    One in four Australian women has experienced violence from an intimate partner, according to a disturbing new report that also finds at least 500,000 children have witnessed violence.

    Australia is grappling with how to tackle domestic violence, with Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull pledging $100 million to stamp out the “national disgrace” that has left at least 63 women dead so far this year.

    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-10-22/one-in-four-women-a-victim-of-intimate-partner-violence/6875092

  47. “@barriecassidy: Standby for an exciting announcement on the ABC’s next news director.

    Wasn’t this announced last week as Greg Jennett?

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