Two very different poll results today, one in line with the ReachTEL and Galaxy polls that reported in the immediate wake of the leadership change last week, the other not. In the former category is Newspoll, which had the Coalition with a lead of 51-49 – compared with a Labor lead of 54-46 a fortnight ago – from primary votes of Coalition 44% (up five), Labor 35% (down four) and Greens 11% (down one). Malcolm Turnbull opens his account with an approval rating of 42% and disapproval of 24%, and leads Bill Shorten 55-21 as preferred prime minister. Shorten’s approval rating is down a point to 29%, and his disapproval down four to 54%.
The other poll for the day was Roy Morgan’s extraordinary finding of a 10% shift on two-party preferred, which blows out to 12% under respondent-allocated preferences. This leaves the Coalition with leads of 55-45 on the former measure and 53.5-46.5 on the latter, from primary votes of Coalition 46% (up eleven), Labor 29.5 (down seven) and Greens 13% (down three). The poll was conducted on Saturday and Sunday from 2059 respondents, and appears to have have been conducted only using face-to-face polling, which has traditionally shown a lean to Labor. The Newspoll will have been conducted from Friday to Sunday, from about 1700 respondents contacted through robopolling and online surveying.
UPDATE (Essential Research): Essential Research has published a result just from its latest weekly polling, together with its normal fortnightly rolling average, and its debut result for Malcolm Turnbull is 50-50 (52-48 in Tony Abbott’s last poll), from primary votes of Coalition 43% (up two), Labor 37% (steady) and Greens 11% (steady). Turnbull records a 53-17 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister; 58% approve of the leadership coup, against 24% who disapprove; and 34% say his ascension makes them more likely to vote Coalition, against 14% for less likely. Forty-six per cent expect the government to run a full term versus 26% who expect an early election, and 40% expect the Coalition to win it versus 27% for Labor.
An extended question on Malcolm Turnbull’s personal attributes finds him much more highly regarded as Abbott across the board, with particularly big improvements since the question was last asked of him in February on intelligent (up seven to 81%), capable (up ten to 70%), understanding of the problems facing Australia (up eight to 63%) and visionary (up seven to 7%). His relative weak spots are, on the negative side of the ledger, arrogant (47%) and out of touch with ordinary people (46%), and on the positive, trustworthy (44%) and more honest than most politicians (39%). Bill Shorten’s position has deteriorated across the board since June, the worst movements being on aggressive (up eight to 36%, although maybe that’s a good thing), narrow-minded (up seven to 41%) and capable (down seven to 36%).
Essential also welcomes the Turnbull prime ministership with a question on whether Australia should become a republic – support for which is, interestingly, up five points since February to 39% with opposition down five to 29%, although 32% are in the “no opinion” category. Other questions find 67% support for a national vote on same-sex marriage compared with 21% who say it should be decided by parliament, and 45% choosing “incentives for renewable energy” from a list of favoured approaches to climate change, compared with 11% for an emissions trading scheme, 10% for the government’s direct action policy and 12% for no action required.
John Reidy@1219
Or not fail.
A delicious double bind.
For anti-Tories.
😀
@davidwh/1236
Labour costs are just are just an excuse to attack wages and protection of employees.
However, GST is added on every time a product is handed down to the final customer destination.
I remember watching the ATO trying to explain the gst when it was introduced at small business forums. They had no idea.
I know here in the Golden West we are well behind you clowns in the east but I just watched Scott ‘protect the murderers and rapists and torture innocent women and children’ Morrison put in a truly truly dreadful performance on 7.30 report. unless his mission is to make Hockey look like a wise and competent treasurer he is just doing it wrong.
I must confess I have always found those in the centre and the centre left who looked to Turnbull as some kind of moderate hero, and saviour from Abbott as fools and losers, but I think now having watched the first week of the Turnbull Government
(which I would suggest has taken all the policy from the former very bad Government and added to it, um well no Government at all, we are supposed to sit and wait as a nation until they figure out WTF they are doing)
there is a very real chance that a Turnbull government will be WORSE than an Abbott government.
Now, now I know the Abbott government fell to levels of dishonesty, stupidity and incompetency that had previously only been considered possible in the media, but I put it to you tonight that my view is the Turnbull government could well, very well be worse.
confessions @ 1237
Told ya!
I’ve seen him do that before, though never so bad. Which is why I thought he would not make the grade as a replacement for Captain Chaos.
This GST debate reminds me of the impact of replacing Abbott. At this point in time a lot of people are open to upping the GST simply because they know we have to do something about tax if we are to fund our key social services of education and health. But once the field is actually opened up for discussion (whether intentionally or simply because in putting the GST increase out there we will discuss the alternatives) its popularity will nosedive. In the same way, we welcome Turnbull for simply doing away with Abbott, but once the buzz of unchaining ourselves from that troglodyte wears off we will start to look at what we have. And it won’t be as pretty as first appears.
Was ScoMo basically saying: I’ve just got this job, I don’t know what is going on, nobody knows what is going on, but I’ll keep you posted.
That is no way to run a frickin country.
[
Player One
Posted Wednesday, September 23, 2015 at 9:52 pm | Permalink
frednk
Very true; most value is added using labour; one way or another; it is a tax on labour; which is where I started.
And you are still wrong, as myself and several others keep trying to point out to you.
]
I found ajm’s comment the most insightful. In a few short paragraphs he/she summed it up.
Now to the second issue, it is a regressive tax; do we do a round on that next.
WWP:
I had to turn off Morrison because he had started practically shouting.
Does the govt intend to berate voters into accepting their economic imperatives rather than convincing us of it?
WWP
I concur. I am surprised but Morrison made Joe look clever
TPOF:
Yeah, should’ve known! Although I’ve never seen Morrison that bad.
The GST is a tax on consumers. Businesses collect it and pass the cost of doing so onto the consumers. What concerns me is the fact that claims are made that when putting the rate of the GST up by X% the consumers will be compensated by tax offsets. Then where is the net difference coming from? The consumers of course. It is a consumption tax. One that will hurt low and middle income earners.
Tom.
frednk@1257
ajm was not at all insightful.
You are correct about it being regressive.
[I put it to you tonight that my view is the Turnbull government could well, very well be worse.]
I cannot mount a counter argument, given the circumstances Turnbull has to deal with in his own party.
The DLP-Labor split of the 1950s may well end up looking like an insipid dress rehearsal compared to what is likely to happen soon to the right of Oz politics.
Shorten Labor must be stunned at their luck.
I would like to personally thank Tony Abbott for his contribution to this situation.
No, really.
🙂
fred,
Feldstein and Krugman agree with you, in that the mechanism you describe appears to be correct, but VAT/GST’s macro effect depends on other macroeconomic policy settings (i.e. the typical economists get-out clause).
See http://www.nber.org/chapters/c7211.pdf
TPOF – We are now getting out first Treasurer who believes in Prosperity Theology. Jesus Christ! He certainly didn’t sound like he was interested in a GST (which will just feed the beast). It’s all about expenditure, donchya know.
[It is hard to avoid]
Not for tradies and other businesses where cash in hand is an option. Not at all uncommon for a quote to be “X or X – 10% if you pay in cash.”
[It doesn’t distort behavior]
Not necessarily a plus. Being able to send a price signal on certain items (as we do with cigarettes) isn’t a bad thing.
[It is efficient to collect ]
It is now, now that the systems are in place. However, some organisations which are not subject to the GST and have to reclaim it have had to employ people to administer this.
The original WST the GST replaced was more efficient to collect, because there are fewer wholesalers than retailers.
So much for Morrison being a *Star* and the hope of the tories.
Abbott was also one we were told, then dopey joe, then mesma and turnbull.
This mob have only been sworn in 3 days and are already taking water.
When does good government start again?
The whiteanting and leaking hasn’t done much yet either
So thats something to look forward to.
WWP @ 1254
Basically, Turnbull and his party have finally stopped the engines as they were steaming towards the reef and now they are becalmed while everyone is looking for the charts or trying to work out where they are, where they are heading, how they will keep the crew under control and how they will keep the passengers under control.
The good news is that deliberate disaster no longer beckons. They may die the death of the becalmed, but not the violent death of the crash into the reef or iceberg. At the moment I am reminded of Coleridge:
Day after day, day after day,
We stuck, nor breath nor motion;
As idle as a painted ship
Upon a painted ocean.
Water, water, every where,
And all the boards did shrink;
Water, water, every where,
Nor any drop to drink.
GST is added at 10% on the selling price agreed. The selling price is roughly made up of costs plus margin. I agree labour costs form part of the total costs and the % of labour to total costs varies across industry sectors. However if a business is acconting for GST properly then GST should not be included in the total costs and how they arrive at their selling prices.
On the other hand, it could be:
full of sound and fury, signifying nothing.
https://theconversation.com/factcheck-is-the-gst-as-efficient-but-less-equitable-than-income-tax-45052
GST as a % of average weekly expenditure
Income quintile
1. Lowest 8.59%
2.5.7%
3.5.13%
4.4.8%
5 Highest 4.59%
ALL 5.26%
Its a regressive tax.
Abolish.
If we must increase revenue there are several viable alternatives that are more equitable and cause less pain to fewer people.
zoomster@1266
I missed it but Chris Bowen was on Lateline
[
Libertarian Unionist
Posted Wednesday, September 23, 2015 at 10:10 pm | Permalink
….
See http://www.nber.org/chapters/c7211.pdf
]
Thanks; interesting read.
The regressive nature of the GST is its major flaw however it does have advantages over other types of taxes which is why it is widely used throughout the world. I think we should look at how we compensate for the flaw rather than dismissing it.
[
davidwh
Posted Wednesday, September 23, 2015 at 10:14 pm | Permalink
..
However if a business is acconting for GST properly then GST should not be included in the total costs and how they arrive at their selling prices.
]
Your going to go broke if you don’t add 10% to your labor cost because you going to have to pay it.
I just looked at the betting odds Labor is 1:3.75 to win the next election. That seems insanely good to me. Has anyone considered that if you bet for labor you might get better odds than voting for liberal because liberal supporters have more money!
yep
[Schadenfreude George
Schadenfreude George – @GeorgeBludger
How’s that Turnbullshit euphoria going? Still awesome isn’t it? Same message, same policies, same clueless ministers, same shit. Hopeless.
4:27 AM – 23 Sep 2015
8 RETWEETS7 FAVORITES]
frednk@1276
You simply calculate your selling price ex-tax and then add 10% to that.
Simple.
Next step is to remit the 10% minus any credits to the ATO.
[ I don’t thing Malcolm can afford for Morrison to fail. ]
He cant, but ScoMo is the man that the RWNJobbies in the Libs (who face it, are fwarking delusional) will accept in the post.
Malcolm will have to work with what he’s got, and what he’s got for a front bench is crap.
Fred if i need a margin of 20% then i am going to add 20% to all my costs including labour costs.
Then when i invoice my customers i am going to add 10% to my selling prices for GST.
Step 1 is project costing.
Step 2 is collecting tax on behalf of the ATO.
Now if your customers allow you to add 10% to labour before you add your 20% margin then good luck to you but you will end up with a profit margin somewhat higher than 20%.
[GST is added at 10% on the selling price agreed.]
This is only true in a sellers market in a buyers market (that is where the price is fixed and the sellers can’t increase it) GST is currently 1/11th of whatever the fixed market price is. If you increase the GST you increase the tax liability even without increasing the price …
TBA
“I run a small business. I do not support an increase in GST which effectively increases the tax owed by small business such as mone.”
I don’t honk that means you are going broke…. Expenditure greater than income, maybe you need advice from Scott
ScoMo’s interview was amazing.
I watched it to the end, (it was a bit like an unstoppable train at risk of careering off the rails).
His last point was tax reform was to be a conversation and they would bring the people with them.
I don’t think I would want a convo with him on tax.
imacca @ 1280: Have to agree there. Coalition front bench is rubbish. Labor has a much stronger front bench, just a pity they have such weak leader.
[Same message, same policies, same clueless ministers, same shit.]
Same policy pig, same shade of lipstick.
For the first time in my non-gambling life, this poor-as-a-churchmouse pensioner is seriously considering placing a substantial bet on Labor.
Nice odds right now.
The reason VAT/GST type taxes are popular around the world is that they appeal to governments like that of Howard’s COALition.
The very fact that they are regressive is why they are popular.
Any attempts at compo for the plebs are [deliberately] short lived.
They have to be otherwise it would mean that the toffs are paying more tax and that’s a no-no.
Get rid of the bloody thing.
[His last point was tax reform was to be a conversation and they would bring the people with them.]
If his interview with Sales is any indication it’ll be a one-sided, shouty conversation!
imacca
If ScrottMo does have eyes on the top job then we can be sure he will lay RWNJobbie IEDs along PM Turnbull’s political road.
WeWantPaul
Posted Wednesday, September 23, 2015 at 10:01 pm | PERMALINK
I know here in the Golden West we are well behind you clowns in the east but I just watched Scott ‘protect the murderers and rapists and torture innocent women and children’ Morrison put in a truly truly dreadful performance on 7.30 report. unless his mission is to make Hockey look like a wise and competent treasurer he is just doing it wrong.
I must confess I have always found those in the centre and the centre left who looked to Turnbull as some kind of moderate hero, and saviour from Abbott as fools and losers, but I think now having watched the first week of the Turnbull Government
(which I would suggest has taken all the policy from the former very bad Government and added to it, um well no Government at all, we are supposed to sit and wait as a nation until they figure out WTF they are doing)
there is a very real chance that a Turnbull government will be WORSE than an Abbott government.
Now, now I know the Abbott government fell to levels of dishonesty, stupidity and incompetency that had previously only been considered possible in the media, but I put it to you tonight that my view is the Turnbull government could well, very well be worse.
———–amen. i’ve been saying that for weeks – or is it days – turnbull is no cleanskin chief and the indians are up to same old tricks ….. they cant scapegoat abbott and credlin etc etc …
davidwh @1275
The Grattan institute recently issued a paper on property taxes that (amongst other things) shows that they impose even less “drag” on the economy than the supposedly efficient GST, whilst having all the other advantages.
Why do you think GSTs have been more widely deployed recently than property taxes? Perhaps the regressive “flaw” in the GST is a design aim?
[they cant scapegoat abbott and credlin etc etc …]
Sure, but it’s fun watching them try.
Grattan paper:
http://grattan.edu.au/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/826-Property-Taxes.pdf
confessions
[it’ll be a one-sided, shouty conversation!]
Ah , a Shire Live event then . Shame for Morrison the audience won’t be reacting the same way 😆
WWP that only applies where you are a real price taker. I would think that would be rare in our domestic economy where all firms have to account for the same change.
More likely to relate to exporters but they are exempt from GST in any case.
I saw that EG@1291 and yes I think property taxes are better than a GST.
The argument there is that a local business has to compete with imports that don’t pay this tax and are at a disadvantage , where as GST is levied on all sales.
davidwh
Serious question: Given the power, what rules would you change about governance of the economy?
From, I presume, a small(ish) business perspective.
Bemused
You do not understand.
I am a consultant. I sell my services. For every $10,000 I earn I pay $1,000 GST less the relatively small amount I can claim back for GST I paid for supplies or services. Now for a consultant it makes relatively little difference because you quote prices plus GST and the businesses who pay you can claim it pack. It is just a money shuffle. Your net income does not change.
However for those businesses targeting consumers- retail, restaurants, hairdresses etc, the GST is a net cost which is mostly on labour. As I explained if the value added by a business after you exclude purchases and services is $200,000 then the GST is a direct tax on this which is mostly on labour. So any business NOT able to pass the GST on in full to customers suffers a net loss which is in effect a tax on Labour 9or to be more precise the value added which except for some odd things like goodwill or capital appreciation is mostly labour.
E. G. Theodore
[Perhaps the regressive “flaw” in the GST is a design aim?]
Of course it is. The wage slave peasantry having to spend a greater share of their income on GST helps avoid the “asset owning class” that derive their wealth/income that way paying more.
poroti@1294
I am waiting for the day he lapses into ‘tongues’ in the middle of an interview. 👿