The first nugget of polling of the Malcolm Turnbull era is impressive even by the usual honeymoon effect standard, with Roy Morgan finding Turnbull enjoying a 70-24 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, including a 50-44 lead among Labor supporters. The poll was conducted today from a sample of 1204 respondents.
Also out today is a now-redundant final reading of voting intention under Tony Abbott from Essential Research, which shows the pollster’s usual steady form in having the Coalition on 40%, Labor on 38% and the Greens on 11%, with Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred – none of which is changed from last week. Most of the remaining questions concern refugees, including a factual question on Australia’s refugee intake that produced fairly unremarkable results, with the highest response being for the broadly accurate total of “about 15,000”. Nor did Essential find evidence that opinions dramatically differed between a sub-sample that was advised of the actual figure and the other sub-sample that wasn’t.
Regarding the 12,000 additional Syrian refugees, Essential recorded 19% saying the number should be higher, 36% opting for lower and 30% saying it was about right. Forty-eight per cent expressed support for Australian involvement in air strikes on Islamic State in Syria, with 29% opposed. Other questions found 38% saying the unions’ take on the China free trade agreement, specifically that it fails to protect Australian workers, to be more credible than the government’s line that the agreement contains adequate protections; and 38% saying the coal industry should continue to expand with 33% saying it should not do so, which is a more positive result than you usually get concerning non-renewable energy sources.
Other polling intelligence of recent times that remains of at least historical interest:
• Liberal internal polling reported by InDaily had the Nick Xenophon Team, which is yet to announce candidates, ahead of Labor in the South Australian seats of Barker and Mayo, and ahead of the Liberals in Adelaide and Kingston – suggesting the NXT would very likely win the seats on respective Labor and Liberal preferences.
• Labor internal polling reported by the Herald-Sun suggests the Greens are a big show in the blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Higgins, held for the Liberals currently by Kelly O’Dwyer, and in the past by Peter Costello, John Gorton and Harold Holt. The poll had the Greens on “between 24-26 per cent” with Labor on 24%, panning out to 50-50 in Liberal-versus-Greens two-party terms if the Greens did indeed finish ahead of Labor.
Canning must be feeling a bit like a bride left at the altar now that Abbott is already gone.
JM @ 900
[Blows my mind that so many, ostensibly in the Labor ledger, are so dismissive of Shorten.]
Shorten deserves a great deal of credit for playing a Rope-a-Dope strategy to perfection. That said, Abbott was never George Foreman. Instead of hitting Shorten, he was so incompetent he uppercut himself half the time. That said, resisting temptation is extraordinarily difficult to do it when Abbott was so inviting.
Ratsak
DeNatoli demolished Turnbull. He could have got away with going weak on the ETS (this was expected) but the water deal looks pathetic and backward.
The gloss is already coming off Mal.
Hey can Labor invite DeNatoli to join and become leader.
guytaur@929
I agree. I bought the media spin that the agreement could not be amended.
I’ve done more reading this afternoon, and it seems like it is entirely possible to change the legislation to provide some further checks and balances (but not full market testing) before allowing Chinese workers in, while still complying with the text of the agreement.
It is also sensible to follow Emerson’s proposal and ensure that market testing is mandated in all future agreements.
The agreement states that neither party can “require labour market testing, economic needs testing or other procedures of similar effect as a condition for temporary entry”. However, there are still some checks and balances that can be put in place while complying with this clause.
That one section of legislation can be amended, and then it can be passed. It’s a minor, but important amendment.
However, Shorten isn’t just attacking that error in the Liberal’s drafting of the legislation. He has said that the entire agreement is a “dud deal”, and the advertising in Canning states that “Abbott’s China free trade agreement will cost jobs”.
That is pure, unadulterated, protectionist fear-mongering.
Had he advertised that “Abbott has made a critical error in the enabling legislation for the deal, and Labor is fighting to correct that”, then that would have been fine and dandy. But he has kept attacking “Abbott’s dud deal”, not “Abbott’s flawed enabling legislation”.
AJH
Shorten has not said that the whole deal is a dud. Why are you peddling this falsehood
Perhaps WA should sign the CHFTA on its own.
briefly@945
I know China very well too. I spend approximately four months of the year in Guangzhou for business.
Getting preferential access to the market, without a minority-stake joint-venture, is damn important, and it’s not something that China has conceded lightly.
btw…has anyone heard if the Canning campaign has begun to publish/broadcast on ChAFTA themes?
I’ve been busy at work…have not been in touch with campaigning for a few days…
Briefly I think it’s pretty obvious Abbott tried to use the CFTA to wedge Labor and largely wedged himself in the process. Time for both sides to get together and negotiate the remaining internal (within Australia) issues like adults. It’s too important to play politics with.
davidw
Shorten he expects Turnbull will take up the offer for them to sit down and sort out CHFTA
davidwh@937
That doesn’t address the issue on the basis of fact. Fact is not being discussed because abbott etc refused to discuss it – they are basically saying sign a blank cheque.
If the agreement plays off advantage to one segment of the community against another – then their needs to be negotiation.
Peter Martin wrote the governments own modeling vastly overstates the claims on jobs created for example. Did you read it ?
In ChAFTA is a bad deal it needs to be fixed or not ratified.
[956
AJH
briefly@945
I know China very well too. I spend approximately four months of the year in Guangzhou for business.
Getting preferential access to the market, without a minority-stake joint-venture, is damn important, and it’s not something that China has conceded lightly.]
Then you will understand that in China workers do not “get a good job”. They have to buy their jobs. You will understand that in China, formal rights of market access mean very little – that counter-party connections mean much more. You will understand that bringing indentured workers into Australia at Chinese wages rates will destroy jobs, wages and conditions here.
Just Me
Yes restart FF
Playing to the base on Carbon isn’t going to help Turnbull.
I am very confident at this stage that regardless of any coming polls, Di Natale and Shorten can tag-team the crap out of Turnbull and walk the next election in, but they’ll need time to chip away.
The only risk is if Turnbull starts rolling party conservatives and actually doing something, but that would seriously rough territory for him. Every day he sticks to Abbott policies, he is pulled down a little bit further by Greens and Labor. His NDIS work today was exactly the right move for Turnbull, but he’ll need a lot more than that.
My opinion is that he has a lot further down to go than Abbott, who actually had an energised conservative activist base (the skinheads and sour grandpas demographic) defending him.
[958
davidwh]
Abbott and Robb were quite willing to use trade deals to hurt Australian workers. They should be ashamed of themselves. Whether Turnbull will meet Labor’s terms remains to be seen. One thing is for certain, if he does not, he will lose the next election.
In = If
[briefly@917
Oh. FFS. You sound like the “Resistance” guys on my campus circa-1987.]
So you’ve got no counter arguments then.
Look’s like Turnbull’s going to spend his honeymoon period wooing the hard right and hope that the progressives who support him don’t notice.
Same sh!t different day!
Abbot’s not in QT. That’s two days running. Sack him!
He is mispronouncing Glenorchy. This is embarassing.
Even Bronnie had the guts to face the music first day after getting the boot.
Really bad optics for Abbott. Looking like he’s run away.
Is Abbott still hangover?
[In the end, of course, the hours of silence – hours which even a freshly-deposed Kevin Rudd, for all his egotism, did not allow himself – turned out to be simple petulance, reportedly underpinned by a hangover. And this in turn came from his prodigious, now wounded sense of entitlement.]
briefly@961
Oh, FFS. No. That is not the China I know.
Party connections are important for “Iron Rice Bowl” jobs within SOEs. But in the private sector, it’s an active labour market like everywhere else.
When we’re recruiting for staff, we’re doing what everyone else is – advertising the positions, scouting universities to grab graduates before someone else does, and headhunting people from other companies.
A good engineer, with decent experience, can name their price. And then they’ll likely head off to Alibaba or Tencent when they get a better offer.
Most of the younger generation in China’s urban areas are highly-educated. It seems two thirds of the people applying for jobs with us have a Masters degree.
Sure, in rural, backwater areas, there is indentured labour in mines and brickworks. But rural China is a totally different situation to urban China. Some areas of China have been basically untouched since the Qing dynasty, and living standards are appalling. But those areas are getting fewer and smaller.
Also, migrant workers are often used for entry-level labour in factories, but again, that labour pool is disappearing as China develops. Five years ago, there were thousands of people queuing each time Foxconn opened their doors on recruiting days. Now, they actually have unfilled positions.
China is changing. It is developing. And its labour market is actually starting to become more mature, gradually becoming more employee-driven.
Link
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/sep/16/after-the-wreckage-abbott-caused-he-still-left-feeling-sore-and-under-appreciated?CMP=soc_568
[My opinion is that he has a lot further down to go than Abbott, who actually had an energised conservative activist base (the skinheads and sour grandpas demographic) defending him.]
I think there’s a fair bit in that. Many have noted that even at his most ridiculous Abbott never sank to the low 40s that Gillard did and Turnbull and Nelson did opposed to Rudd. The reason seems to be the hard core righties, the angry old white guys, the shockjock listeners took Abbott to their own and held his numbers from completely collapsing.
Turnbull has a real potential to alienate a large part of this base. I don’t think Turnbull will be bumping along with 43s any time soon, but he really does have to be careful because the withdrawal after the initial hit could be a doozy.
adrian@967
When someone talks about “indentured workers” and “neo-colonial labour markets”, I stop reading. It sounds like they swallowed Das Kapital and are regurgitating it onto their keyboard.
[ Shorten he expects Turnbull will take up the offer for them to sit down and sort out CHFTA ]
And i think, if he can, Turnbull will do that. My question would be if the Libs will let him do that. Negotiation of legislation enabling CHFTA to get it operating is a no-brainer. But up until now the Libs have really been the party of the no-brainer. 🙂
Turnbull needs to get some wins on the board and actually getting CHFTA put to bed is an easy one IF he has the will.
Thats something i find a bit surprising about his current stance on SSM. Regardless of its wider significance, all but the Taliban Right within the Libs would have seen it as a win for him, personally if he moved on it quickly and allowed a free vote soon. He could have used it as a popular issue to assert himself and establish that he IS leader and not just an empty suit. He still needs to show that he has a spine or he wont keep a polling bounce for long.
Turnbull already starting to play the man. He just can’t help himself.
From victoria’s link, a complete condemnation of conserative white men like Abbott.
[The “scandal” that propelled Abbott’s early political life was women taking control over their reproductive lives. The scandal that propelled him to power was the spectacle of a woman – unmarried, childless – occupying the lodge. Anyone who denies the mobilising power of antifeminism in what happened to Gillard probably doesn’t look too hard at grassroots conservatism.
The most enduring image of his political career deserves to be that of him addressing an ageing crowd on the lawns of parliament house, with signs behind him calling her a “bitch” and a “witch”.
For the tinpot Tea Party who gathered there on that day – for a rally against the carbon tax – Gillard was every woman who had advanced in the workplace at the expense of some white guy like themselves, and every change that had made such outrages possible.]
[ Abbot’s not in QT. That’s two days running. Sack him! ]
He’d better be putting in for annual or sick leave then. 🙁 I’m paying his salary and i will be annoyed if he is just skivving off for a sulk. I expect better from an employee.
Imacca – unless, of course, for the ferals in the govt the heart of Chafta is the work-choices by stealth askpect. They the won’t give Malcolm any room at all.
Oh Turnbull is killing himself here. Carbon storage, soil carbon, clean coal!
FFS Malcolm you won’t even make Christmas you Turkey.
Disappointment is coming for so many fools that thought this fraud would deliver for them.
Gee Nationals got sold pretty easily:
Guardian Australia @GuardianAus 3m3 minutes ago
Turnbull’s so-called $4bn bribe to Nationals more wishes than fulfilment http://trib.al/OxgYK5H
IMO Labor are making a mistake in including of Turnbull’s ambition within their questions.
ratsak@983
And that’s really the problem. He’s never a good salesman when he doesn’t believe in what he’s selling. At some point he will crack, and his insincerity will show right through.
It has done so many times on the NBN MTM fiasco. And previously on climate change. It will surely do so again.
Senator Penny Wong @SenatorWong 2m2 minutes ago
Senator Cormann also confirms “reprioritisation” (otherwise known as cuts) to pay for Nationals deal. #senateqt
lizzie@985
Everyone knows he’s ambitious, even arrogant. Many actually respect him for that.
But insincere? They can kill him easily by pointing out that he doesn’t believe in what he is selling. He’s a front-man for policies he secretly despises.
Everyone loves Turnbull’s forthrightness and candour. If Labor points out that he’s just become a political hack, selling policies that are dictated by “faceless men”, then he’s a dead man walking.
Am I alone in thinking Turnbull is showing a good deal of hubris in QT today?
Julie Bishop sounded like a little girl, breathless and excited, when talking up CHAFTA but Turnbull is over the top.
953
AJH
[Shorten… has said that the entire agreement is a “dud deal”, and the advertising in Canning states that “Abbott’s China free trade agreement will cost jobs”.
But he has kept attacking “Abbott’s dud deal”]
Great. This means the Labor hierarchy have been listening to their activist base…who have been talking to the voters.
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/sep/16/progressives-dont-be-fooled-turnbull-will-rule-from-and-for-the-big-end-of-town
Turnbull is not your friend unless you are in the money.
PG @ 964
[The only risk is if Turnbull starts rolling party conservatives and actually doing something, but that would seriously rough territory for him. Every day he sticks to Abbott policies, he is pulled down a little bit further by Greens and Labor.]
I always thought that the Liberal right would accept Turnbull only for the purposes of rescuing some furniture from the sinking ship. That was based on Turnbull continuing to stand for the things that he has stood for until now. It’s clear that he has now sold out completely to the right wing to get the job. Maybe he thinks he can bring them around between now and election day, but at the moment he is looking like the very conduct that made him the ‘people’s choice’ as PM is going to generate huge disappointment.
‘Best environmentalists are Australian Farmers’
Channelling Abbott here Turnbull.
CCCP back up and running.
However, STFU still needs to be installed separately, and still no Preview function.
But, no worse off than I was before.
That will do for today.
Ta Musrum and dave.
(FTR, running OS X 10.9.5)
@latikambourke: Liberal MP and new mum Kelly O’Dwyer told to express more breast milk to avoid missing votes in the chamber http://t.co/gFK5sT7Uxf via @smh
Zoidlord #984 I think reading that article that the $4 billion was only a bit of media spin which Labor then ramped up to attack Turnbull. When you read the Guardian (hardly a RWNJ media organisation) you realise Turnbull actually did an OK deal with the Nats.
Hockey crowing about 32000 jobs growth since they came to power,
That’s 308 jobs a WEEK!.
BH @ 990
[Am I alone in thinking Turnbull is showing a good deal of hubris in QT today?]
No. Labor’s questions are hitting home and driving him further into owning the very policies that the public looked to him to get rid of.
Shorten is interesting. He mostly just sits there and smiles smugly while his front benchers engage in the interjections. He doesn’t look worried. At this stage Turnbull is playing out exactly how Labor thought/hoped he would.
But nothing much matters this week. It’s next week, with Canning out of the way and the winners and losers clearly identified with the new Cabinet sworn in, when the serious stuff will start. And a few weeks break to the next Parliamentary sittings. If Turnbull cannot mark out territory different to that which Abbott ruled, he will be gone.
It may have been in large part about leadership, but it is about policy. It was the policy embedded in the first budget that dealt the mortal blow to Abbott. So the idea that it is nothing more than beauty contest between Shorten and, now, Turnbull is far wide of the mark.
Give Abbott a break, he’s busy with his lawer sorting his divorce from Margie