The first nugget of polling of the Malcolm Turnbull era is impressive even by the usual honeymoon effect standard, with Roy Morgan finding Turnbull enjoying a 70-24 lead over Bill Shorten as preferred prime minister, including a 50-44 lead among Labor supporters. The poll was conducted today from a sample of 1204 respondents.
Also out today is a now-redundant final reading of voting intention under Tony Abbott from Essential Research, which shows the pollster’s usual steady form in having the Coalition on 40%, Labor on 38% and the Greens on 11%, with Labor leading 52-48 on two-party preferred – none of which is changed from last week. Most of the remaining questions concern refugees, including a factual question on Australia’s refugee intake that produced fairly unremarkable results, with the highest response being for the broadly accurate total of “about 15,000”. Nor did Essential find evidence that opinions dramatically differed between a sub-sample that was advised of the actual figure and the other sub-sample that wasn’t.
Regarding the 12,000 additional Syrian refugees, Essential recorded 19% saying the number should be higher, 36% opting for lower and 30% saying it was about right. Forty-eight per cent expressed support for Australian involvement in air strikes on Islamic State in Syria, with 29% opposed. Other questions found 38% saying the unions’ take on the China free trade agreement, specifically that it fails to protect Australian workers, to be more credible than the government’s line that the agreement contains adequate protections; and 38% saying the coal industry should continue to expand with 33% saying it should not do so, which is a more positive result than you usually get concerning non-renewable energy sources.
Other polling intelligence of recent times that remains of at least historical interest:
• Liberal internal polling reported by InDaily had the Nick Xenophon Team, which is yet to announce candidates, ahead of Labor in the South Australian seats of Barker and Mayo, and ahead of the Liberals in Adelaide and Kingston – suggesting the NXT would very likely win the seats on respective Labor and Liberal preferences.
• Labor internal polling reported by the Herald-Sun suggests the Greens are a big show in the blue-ribbon Melbourne seat of Higgins, held for the Liberals currently by Kelly O’Dwyer, and in the past by Peter Costello, John Gorton and Harold Holt. The poll had the Greens on “between 24-26 per cent” with Labor on 24%, panning out to 50-50 in Liberal-versus-Greens two-party terms if the Greens did indeed finish ahead of Labor.
1934pc
Hockey can’t read ABS headline figure. Unemployment rate has a 6 in front of it.
No amount of spin can tell voters different
lizzie@986
Agree. All senior pollies are ambitious, including Shorten, and there is nothing wrong with that. Ambition itself is not a bad thing, quite the contrary.
Attack Turnbull on policy related stuff, and use that to indirectly highlight his inconsistency and lack of credibility (where it is actually so, and there are rich pickings to be had there).
Can’t wait for Morrison to become Treasurer.
There will be Dollar Bills raining from the sky, rivers of gold and budget surpluses as far as the eye can see.
This guy is a performer
gt @ 996
[The advice came from the office of the government’s Chief Whip Scott Buchholz]
Bizarre.
TBA, yes an illusionist
@MayneReport: A closed door approach to the cross bench is certainly in the top 20 of Tony Abbott’s very lost list of blunders: http://t.co/MOE8bfq06n
[974
AJH
briefly@961
Oh, FFS. No. That is not the China I know.]
That accounts for your perspective. If you are a relatively low-skilled worker seeking a more secure or better-paid job, you will have to buy it. If you want a job as a baggage handler or a clerk at an airport, if you want to be drafted into the army, you will have to pay. If you want to work in an electronics factory – and to acquire the rights of a “local” in a coastal province – you or your family will have to go into debt to get the job.
At this end of the China labour market workers have no freedom, no equality and very few legal protections. These are the workers that will be hired and brought here to work in mining, construction, food processing, agriculture and horticulture, hospitality and tourism.
This is already the case in Australia. 5% of the workers in our economy are already indentured. If ChAFTA is enacted, this proportion will surely increase very quickly. We will certainly end up with a neo-colonial labour market at the low end – a market in which workers were trafficked between employers, in which workers were deprived of their mobility, their rights to organise and to bargain.
Right now, employers and the LNP are trying to abolish penalty rates – something that will hurt the living of low income and casual workers across the whole economy. ChAFTA is of a piece with this.
I have yet to meet a Lib who will deny it.
a couple of years ago it was
[ Can’t wait for Abbott to become PM.
There will be Dollar Bills raining from the sky, rivers of gold and budget surpluses as far as the eye can see.
This guy is a performer ]
Newsflash: we don’t use “dollar bills” anymore.
C!
Yes bizarre is the correct term. Maybe the whip is going to go with Bernadi and doing damage before he leaves
TBA
“This guy is a performer”
And your an idiot!.
[There will be Dollar Bills raining from the sky, rivers of gold and budget surpluses as far as the eye can see.]
Dollar bills were discontinued three decades ago, the melting point of gold is more than 1000C and budget surpluses are equally unlikely with these arseclowns.
TPOF
Thanks for your insights. Shorten does seem OK in his skin atm and the Oppn seem a bit toey.
Actually I’m not a Barnaby Joyce fan due to all his over exaggerations in past years but he has stood up for rural people this week. Quite a few concerns about the water issue and Turnbull was too glib about that but I hope Joyce contues to hold the PM to his promises.
TrueBlueAussie@1003
hockey claimed he would have a budget surplus commencing year 1 – but never delivered.
morrison is unlikely to deliver one either – he will increase the debt just as abbott/ hockey did.
I grew up in Joe hockey’s electorate. I now live in bennelong, but i can say with full confidence that much of the area is not necessarily safe liberal territory as many people would have believe inherently. It’s more that labor never really bothered to field candidates that were worthy of great praise. The perception that any seat is supposed to be safe one way or another is largely a perception that builds over time on a historical basis and as such political parties judge it to be of particular class by measure of their own aspirations.
Bizarre? No, thick-headed, old-fashioned and even misogynist.
MORRISON!
Turnbull’s performance in QT has been absolutely pathetic.
Firstly, there’s the string of ums, ers, disconnected sentences — this is actually a sign of over confidence, when you think you know the stuff so well that you don’t have to prepare, and then flounder when it comes to it because (of course) you really, really did. (This is experience speaking here, done it too often myself).
So much for the eloquence.
Secondly, he is simulataneously arguing for intelligent debate and then avoiding dealing with issues. Whether it was action on climate change, or water, all he did was bluster. He not only avoided anwering the questions, he avoided even attempting to tackle the issues.
dave@962
Yeah I’m struggling to find this error.
I even installed it all into a Windows VM. The error string does not appear in my script, so I’m guessing this is hitting the Crikey Preview code somehow.
briefly@1007
No. No. I have no idea where you get this.
All my family is Chinese. I spend almost half the year there. I’ve never heard of “buying” jobs or indentured labour within any urban area. That sort of thing only happens in rural backwaters where everything has been untouched since the 1800s.
Sure, there are favours and kickbacks. If your father knows the CEO’s father, you’re going to get a job. And if you play golf with your department manager, then you’re more likely to get a promotion. But that happens anywhere.
But outright paying for employment? I have never seen that actually occur.
There are systemic problems for sure. Such as the “red envelopes” that are expected when your boss has a new grandchild, or on his birthday, or when the day ends in a “y”, but that’s a general part of the way China operates. Corruption is so entrenched that you’re even expected to give a bribe to your doctor (so you get real medicine), your anaesthetist (so he actually knocks you out), the local security bureau (so you get your passport in a day, not six months), etc.
But that’s not “buying jobs”, it’s just endemic corruption. And it’s just considered a normal cost of doing business in China.
“@SamDickfos: Audition for the position of treasurer. #qt”
Labor is setting Turnbull up nicely. Not just on SSM and Carbon, but on the 2014 budget.
Labor will be able to ask a simple question. “Would you have been happy with the cuts in the 2014 budget if it had been Turnbull as the PM rather than Abbott”
The answer is of course the leader makes no difference. And that is the point. It ain’t the style it’s the substance.
AJH @ 975
[Oh, FFS. No. That is not the China I know.]
The China I know was learnt solely from a 20 day guided tour. Despite the little I saw of it, it was an immensely large and complex country and I visited at least three cities with a population equal to or larger than Australia.
The idea that there is a single paradigm or character for this country is just ridiculous. Both you and Briefly are entitled to draw on your experiences, which are far, far greater than mine. But quite frankly, there is far less distance between your experiences (and Briefly’s) and mine than yours and the reality of China.
In that context, even a comparatively small number of players who do what Briefly fears can do untold damage to Australian working conditions and pay, even though none of them are the kinds of people you deal with. That is my concern. The whole idea of leaving gaps and expecting them not to be taken advantage of is ludicrous. These gaps need to be covered – not necessarily closed but managed by more than a hail Mary and a ‘trust us’. My concerns, indeed, are less that some Chinese businesses will take advantage than that the Liberal Party’s big backers are hoping they do in order to achieve Gina Rinehart’s $2 a day workers paradise.
I think we can do better without amending the text of the deal because there is so much left to be filled in or addressed. I listen to QT where the Government spruiks all the benefits of the FTA, but never addresses the labour issue except to say ‘trust us’ and scream patently false accusations of ‘racism’ (which is a huge red flag raising the question of what they have to hide).
As for the unions. They are entitled to do what they wish. As long as this government plays politics rather than addressing the issues, I will be convinced that they really are trying to hide something nasty beneath the sugar coating.
Does Morrison take his 66 spin doctors with him to treasury and if something bad happens will he be able to brush it off as an on paper matter?
Nice dig from Tanya, accusing Malcolm of ‘mansplaining’
[“hockey claimed he would have a budget surplus commencing year 1 – but never delivered.”]
This has been proven to be a lie, time and time again.
And before you post the lefts snipped version of his quote, post the full quote. Uno… including the bit before the bit the left quotes where he qualifys his answer by saying ASSUMING the Labor numbers were correct… which we now know Labors numbers were cooked.
[ Can’t wait for Morrison to become Treasurer. ]
I can actually agree with TBA on this point.
If Morrison gets to deliver the 2016 Budget, includng Corrmans flagged “reprioritisations” to shoot lolly to the Nats, i expect that we will be revisiting the 2014 “unfairness” theme in a big way.
The Libs may see their “Hard Man Happy Clapper” as JUST the person to push through their plans to broaden and raise the GST to 15%.
@mpesce: MALSPLAINING: TWITTER’S WORD FOR 2015. https://t.co/y0cPWf8Afk
TPOF@1023
Oh, I agree we should make the legislation as tight as the deal allows. Play right to the letter of the agreement, and enforce as many protections as possible without going back to the negotiating table.
You can bet that China isn’t going to be playing nice and giving us any leeway.
AJH@954
Unfortunately many, including the media (particularly) are arriving at conclusions about ChAFTA *without* reading what is actually involved/ what has been traded away and what can or cannot be changed.
MSM yet again are lazy and apart from honourable exceptions like Peter Martin – most just want it ratified irrespective of what is in the detail.
FFS – much of that detail is in fact not yet decided and cannot be disclosed.
But many swallow the tories attempt at bluff.
Come on Bill. The follow up question is obvious. If your such a fan of plebiscites why don’t you put some other issues to a plebiscite.
Tax changes?
Chafta?
Direct Action?
Why is it only SSM that should have a plebiscite?
Gawd is Tanya already bringing out the gender card. That didn’t take long.
[Abbot’s not in QT. That’s two days running. Sack him!]
Maybe he’s feeding Kelly O’Dwyer’s baby so she can attend.
TrueBlueAussie@1026
Show us then.
Simple.
Malsplaining!
Oh I can see that sticking. And biting.
Some controversy in the Senate as LNP senator Ian Macdonald tells Senator Wong to ‘learn to speak Australian’.
davidwh
How did TPlibersek bring out the gender card?
I love this version of manplaining 🙂
[However, the term quickly degenerated into a get-out-of-jail-free card used by angry women when a man dares to point out even the most blatant error. ]
To add my bit: 2GB (via 2CC in Canberra) is good listening at the moment. With Hadley claiming Morrison and JBishop virtually double crossed Abbott and Smith promoting the idea of a Bernardi led breakaway party, the schisms are on display. When Smith asked Flint if he would join a Bernardi party, flint agreed on condition it was anti-republican (a no brainer of course).
While all this angst may be all smoke and no fire, there is certainly the potential for interesting times ahead, especially those amongst the 44 who voted for Abbott not because they liked him but because he represented their right wing view of the world.
[ Joe Hockey commits to first-year surplus http://www.news.com.au/finance/business/joe-hockey-commits-to-first-year-surplus/story-e6frfkur-1226292053397 ]
Malsplaining coming up for Shorten.
This guys arrogance is going to get him.
Musrum@1019
We’ve discussed this a bit here at various times – whether its a crikey issue, but there are a number of people with the same problem. Others have no problem – weired ?
For what its worth I have the same problem with Chrome ??
Thanks muchly though Musrum – its taken up at lot of time for you.
Much appreciated.
AJH
You say you’re a prominent businessman/woman who deals regularly with Chinese companies, right?
If you don’t mind me asking, has the recent stock market fumble in China impeded growth of those businesses in the country? And what strategies is China using to combat the long-term slowing national growth?
Musrum@1019
Don’t sweat it. Much obliged for what you have already done for us, tax-free and all. 🙂
[I love this version of manplaining 🙂
However, the term quickly degenerated into a get-out-of-jail-free card used by angry women when a man dares to point out even the most blatant error.]
Which sounds suspiciously like the same sort of attitude you hear from people who say ‘I think women are equal to men, but…’
Not at all ratsak. What it said is that some women have twisted the term to criticise a man even if they justifiably criticise a woman’s blantant error.
TPOF@895
Ah ha! That’s how devious it is. 😛
As much as I don’t like Abbott, you have to admit that he has been loyal to his friends right to the end. When you look at the support he has given MT, JB, BB, JH, MB, AS, and many others, it would be easy to understand the pain that he is going through. Of course there is a nasty side to him (especially against his enemies i.e. Labor Party, but thus far he has shown much dignity than many.
1029
AJH
The deal is this…Australia will indenture Chinese workers via the s457 system. Chinese firms will traffic the jobs.
ChAFTA is not about freedom. It is about the opposite of freedom. It is about binding workers and dealing in them.
davidwh@1032
Yeah, Turnbull is personally neither culpable nor vulnerable on that front. Leave it alone.
Unless Mal starts it, of course, which I don’t think he will.
OTOH, as leader, he is vulnerable and ultimately culpable on policies affecting women, such as the gutting of funding for domestic violence shelters, for example.
That is how you get him.