Fairfax has gotten in early-ish with the results of its latest monthly Ipsos poll, which is well in line with recent form in having Labor leading 54-46 on two-party preferred, up from 53-47. The primary votes have Labor up one to 36%, the Coalition down one to 38%, the Greens steady at a still unusually high level of 16%, and Palmer United scoring one of their occasional showings at 2% rather than the more common 1%. Bill Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister increases from 43-39 to 45-39 – approval ratings should be along later. A question on preferred Liberal leader has Malcolm Turnbull leading on 41%, Julie Bishop on 23% and Tony Abbott on 15%. Further findings: 69% support for same-sex marriage with 25% opposed; 58% believe the government is doing too little on climate change, with 32% opting for about right.
UPDATE: The approval ratings are interesting in showing a recovery for Bill Shorten, who is up four points on approval to 39% with disapproval down six to 49%. Tony Abbott on the other hand is mired at 59% disapproval, and down one on approval to 35%. Shorten has consistently done relatively well on net approval in Ipsos, which is presumably related to its lower uncommitted ratings. ReachTEL, it seems, gets still more positive for Shorten by eliminating an uncommitted option altogether.
UPDATE 2: The respondent-allocated preferences result records Labor’s lead blowing out all the way to 56-44, after being equal with the headline figure on 53-47 last time. As this scatterplot shows, there has been a strong trend away from the Coalition on preferences in respondent-allocated polling conducted since the 2013 election. Contributing factors include a rise in the Greens’ share of the non-major party vote, and the Palmer United collapse.
UPDATE 3 (Essential Research): This week’s reading of the Essential Research fortnightly rolling average swims against the tide in recording a small shift in the Coalition’s favour, reducing the Labor lead from 53-47 to 52-48. The primary votes are 41% for the Coalition (up one), 38% for Labor (down one) and 10% for the Greens (down one). The most interesting of the supplementary questions relates to approval of government ministers, which delivers an excellent result for Julie Bishop of 56% approval and 22% disapproval, with Malcolm Turnbull close behind at 47% and 24%. Bottom of the table of seven by some margin is Joe Hockey, at 31% and 48%. Other questions register a conviction that a re-elected Coalition would introduce laws like WorkChoices (44% likely versus 26% unlikely), and a belief that not enough is being done to tackle climate change (53%, versus 24% for doing enough and 7% for doing too much).
JacetheAce
[
The legislation Abbott is trying to strike down has been in place for 15 years]
So it is his hero Howard’s legislation then. The way the pork chop brigade are carrying on you’d think it was an eeeeevil Greens/Labor piece of work.
Always more effective if you can announce the same thing several times over, over a lengthy period. This slowly drawn out drawing and quartering of Abbott’s outrageous political use of a Royal Commission is the Karma which he doesn’t believe in.
[Labor has delayed a Senate vote on a motion calling on the governor general to dismiss Dyson Heydon as the trade union royal commissioner, after crossbenchers wanted him to have the opportunity to respond to potential submissions seeking his disqualification.
Labor’s Senate leader, Penny Wong, said the party would postpone consideration of the motion until 7 September – the first parliamentary sitting day after an anticipated hearing on Friday for Heydon to consider any request from unions for his removal.
Eric Abetz, who leads the government in the upper house, had earlier branded the motion as an attempt to set up a “kangaroo court in the Senate”.
The deferral is a result of negotiations with Senate crossbenchers over the proposed motion, which would have sent a message to the governor general, Peter Cosgrove, asking him to revoke Heydon’s appointment because of his initial acceptance of an invitation to speak at a Liberal party fundraiser.]
http://trib.al/AbIKnsF
@strom_m: Kathy Jackson exposed as a thief, liar and hypocrite of the highest order
http://t.co/Oa45ANVcwB via @smh
I don’t think the ‘lawfare’ bs is going anywhere. Certainly not some great damaging wedge. Rusted on Libs might be the last to accept that the mining boom is over and that Coal isn’t going to save, but pretty much everyone else has. Most people will see an incompetent government looking for someone else to blame for their environment minister’s stuff up. When you’ve got Alan Jones going off his tit about both Adani and the Shenhua mines even the rusted on right are going to be feeling split allegiances.
Country folk looking for allies to fight CSG certainly won’t be over the moon about the news if they are by some freak of nature thinking straight.
[“Kathy Jackson exposed as a thief, liar and hypocrite of the highest order”]
Still out done by ex ALP President Michael Williamson.
And in the sleaze department you can’t beat Craig Thomson who stole money from workers for blowjobs from hookers.
TrueBlueAussie@1791
It makes me wonder too why Qld Labor chose to go down that path. It’s a dying industry.
Also, it’s a bit rich for Abetz to complain about a Kangaroo Court into the Kangaroo Court he set up in the first place
[ Will be interesting to see how effective the grassroots campaigning will be in Canning, ]
As it appears to have been somewhat successful in other areas i’d say that the Unions will be mobilizing members in a big way. How it will work in an area that DID have a large buffer for the Libs will be looked at very closely.
This is something the Libs hate as they dont have anything like the numbers of people the ALP / Unions can mobilize.
And the policies they are pushing are generally crap which doesn’t help them any. 🙂
TBA
Sydney Morning Herald has a wider audience than poll bludger so good luck winning that argument
I dont see any realistic path to a 2nd term for the LNP while Abbott leads it.
Its much like Gillard: the voters have already decided. Hope against hope, but It will not change, and it will not shift. 168 polls in a row and counting -when do yo learn?
@farrm51: ACTU to proceed with demand Dyson Heydon be removed. http://t.co/YyNeJGSaRh
JacetheAce@1800
You are correct. Watering down of due process is a completely separate issue from the mine itself.
[“It makes me wonder too why Qld Labor chose to go down that path. It’s a dying industry.”]
Well if that’s the case why not let it die a natural death rather than launching lawfare and other leftie sabotage tactics?
Also Coal is not going away. It’s used in the construction of steel, not just power. So unless you plan on driving around in a soy bean motored, hemp mobile it’s going to be around for a lot longer than claimed.
“@AustralianLabor: Can the PM confirm Cabinet Ministers were directed to say Cabinet is “functioning exceptionally well when asked about Cabinet leaks? #qt”
“@AustralianLabor: Can the PM confirm that the Government is functioning so exceptionally well that Cabinet ministers immediately leaked this document? #qt”
Abbott totally loosing it.
Abbott lying to parliament. Courts have determined in ruling not 10 000 jobs in judgement on Adani.
QT looks like being a complete farce today.
QT a bit rowdy today.
Smith showing that it doesn’t take much to look good in comparison to Bishop.
MH
He has lost it. Its only how much damage he does before the LNP MP’s act.
Why doesn’t the speaker pull Abbott up on lies? And Abbott just accused Shorten of lying.
Katherine Murphy’s comment on Abbott’s reply to Shorten’s question.
[Abbott is very shrill.]
TrueBlueAussie #1813
…why not let it die a natural death…
TBA, coal mines aren’t living beings. They don’t die from heart attacks or lung cancer.
JulieB desperately prompting Abbott. She’s doing that more lately. “Showing leadership”?
If China is buying huge cattle stations in Australia doesn’t it make sense to have no tariffs on beef?
[Well if that’s the case why not let it die a natural death rather than launching lawfare and other leftie sabotage tactics?]
A Minister left himself open to a challenge by the courts by not following the legislation. Hardly a lefty conspiracy there.
It was an environmental matter. Accordingly, it was the Minister for Environment who failed to administer in accordance with the law. Likewise, it was a group of people interested in upholding legislated environmental protections that raised the issue with the courts.
All the subsequent demonisation by the LNP of groups based on their beliefs and interests smacks of proto-fascism.
Coal dying a natural death doesn’t, unfortunately for TBA, permit the Environment Minister to ignore the law.
Abbott, Hunt and Brandi are having a hissy fit because they got caught being incompetent. Nothing else. Hunt can go back, do his job properly, no doubt approve the mine anyway, and Adani can go back to pretending they can afford to build it.
There’s no need to change the law just because Greg Hunt can’t do his job.
Thank the universe Joe wasn’t in charge during the GFC.
Wayne Swan @SwannyQLD · 3m3 minutes ago
@ 2 yr mark Labor had saved Oz from the GFC, @ the 2 year mark Abbott & Hockey have delivered the highest unemployment in 20 yrs #qt
Joe’s BPM (bulldust Per Minute) is truly world class.
Good on Wilkie asking about Mental Health!!!!
I can’t stand this.
TrueBlueAussie@1813
There’s no sabotage. We just ask that all the legislation is being followed, and not to change the goal posts if the legislation doesn’t agree with them.
And what a strawman. How many coal mines are there in Australia? There is very little economic benefit in opening this one.
Look at the recent news about coal:
http://www.smh.com.au/business/energy/coal-prices-fall-to-12year-lows-as-china-india-join-demand-slowdown-20150819-gj2jk6.html
And demand in India falls as they start tapping into their own mines
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-08-12/coal-revival-seen-fading-as-india-s-rising-output-trims-imports
Not surprising considering there’s not much incentives to give these industries any more support
http://reneweconomy.com.au/2015/brand-new-german-coal-plant-worth-just-one-euro-49597
Don’t get me wrong. Coal mines and plants are here to stay, but there’s just no reason to keep opening more as we go into the future.
It’s like how there is still a need for horse shoes, but you wouldn’t start a horse shoe business now.
lizzie
Its fun. Its only a problem if you think people believe him. I don’t think they do.
guytaur
I bloody well hope not. The noddies are shouting and cheering behind him. joe’s blood pressure is at peak cigar level.
Abbott is punching out with all the insults he can think of. Sign of panic? Scared dog viciously barking at the end of its chain?
For once I am enjoying 24 leaving its yellow breaking news for a long time. Throughout QT people are reading about ACTU action over Heydon.
lizzie
I remind you the cartoonists get it. Rowe the Talking Dead says it all
🙂
@SBSComedy: Environmental Activists Accused Of Forcing Mining Companies To Obey The Law:
http://t.co/WVoZ3M9fvg http://t.co/wIVjPGP90P
@latikambourke: Actually fair call. https://t.co/YUc1TrdnIl
“@sspencer_63: Hockey, having run out of anything sensible to say resorts to the kindergarten playground tactic of using middle names as ridicule. Sad.”
Joe The Job Creator is sounding as desperate as Abbott. It’s pretty bad when Barnyard is the voice of reason and coherence.
gt
[For once I am enjoying 24 leaving its yellow breaking news for a long time. Throughout QT people are reading about ACTU action over Heydon.]
There are more people watching ABC22 ‘Kids’ than watching question time. The ABC should put their ‘banner news’ on there.
All the discussion about this wonderful free trade agreement with China is about primary produce. Are we going to ever do anything else or just be a bunch of farmers, I mean where’s the vision.
Ctar
Yeah I know. Still I am going to enjoy it while it lasts 🙂
Really interesting article in New Matilda: https://newmatilda.com/2015/08/19/truth-hurts-science-behind-why-people-dont-care-about-death-our-planet-and-democracy
If only the Labor Party could take on board the recommendations re. overcoming system justifying behaviour in threir messaging – and keep it up relentlessly – there may be a rational path to a better future.
While Barnaby speaks, the other chat amongst themselves.
Barnyabbie going on about fruit and nut exports. Someone should send a truck to parliament hse to collect him.
[There are more people watching ABC22 ‘Kids’ than watching question time. The ABC should put their ‘banner news’ on there.]
You suggest interrupting Dinosaur Train with that nonsense? I hope the toddlers of the country don’t hear about it, they will hunt you down and scream at you. Ditto their parents.
Barnyard back to normal. Something about snakes, skinks and an abomination.
This in the Guardian’s live coverage of QT sounds about right.
[“The reason the government is focussing on the FTA, by the way, is because I’m told by those who know that union TV ads about labour provisions are biting.”]