The BludgerTrack poll aggregate has, almost, moved half a point in Labor’s favour for the third week in a row, the exact two-party movement on this occasion being 0.4%. This was the result of two new polls this week, one from ReachTEL and the other the regular weekly Essential Research result. Newspoll was silent this week because, social media conspiracy theorising aside, it’s the practice of The Australian to have its polls coincide with the resumption of parliament, which means next week rather than this week. Whereas last week’s movement caused four seats to tip Labor’s way on the projection, this time there is but the one, that being in Victoria.
Nothing new this week on leadership ratings, but a fair bit to report on preselection:
• The future of the plum Liberal seat of Mackellar on Sydney’s northern beaches is a hot topic following Bronwyn Bishop’s resignation as Speaker. The West Australian reports that Bishop is “under internal pressure to quit parliament immediately”, but the 72-year-old Bishop says she’s set on another term. However, the crude fact that her pension will erode the longer she is on a back-bench salary makes this a doubtful proposition. It had long been thought that her successor might be her chief-of-staff, Damien Jones, who is a member of the party’s state executive, husband of state upper house MP Natasha Maclaren-Jones and, according to James Robertson of the Sydney Morning Herald, Bishop’s “local numbers man”. However, The Australian (paywalled) reports that Jones is “seen as ‘damaged goods’”, since it was he who booked Bishop’s infamous $5227 helicopter flight to Geelong – a view expressed by Tom Switzer, a former opinion page editor of The Australian and past preselection aspirant who is ruling himself out on this occasion. Others who have been speculatively named without ruling themselves out include Julian Leeser, a former Menzies Research Centre head currently working in government relations at the Australian Catholic University; Walter Villatora, chairman of the party’s Warringah federal electoral council and a campaigner for democratising preselection reforms favoured by the religious Right faction; John Ruddick, an ally of Villatora’s in the reform push; Greg Burton, a barrister; and Jim Longley, state member for Pittwater from 1986 to 1996 and a minister in John Fahey’s government from 1992 to 1995, who is now chief executive of the ageing, disability and home care division of the NSW Department of Family and Community Services. Longley challenged Bishop for preselection ahead of the last election.
• The West Australian reports that possible Liberal preselection candidates for the Canning by-election include “Mandurah mayor Marina Vergone, Murdoch University law lecturer Lorraine Finlay and party figure Nathan Gudgeon”. Another mentioned in the local press is Steve Marshall, a 57-year-old former earthworks businessman who says he will run as an independent if he doesn’t win, which doesn’t sound like a winning pitch to these ears. The West Australian also reports that Labor’s preselection candidates will include Matt Keogh, a commercial lawyer, president of the Law Society of WA, and member of the Right faction.
• Nationals veteran Bruce Scott has confirmed the long-held expectation that he will retire at the next election, making available his sprawling and safely conservative Queensland seat of Maranoa. Scott has been in the news of late due to his role as deputy Speaker – Phillip Coorey of the Financial Review reports that he hoped to replace Bishop, but the Liberals will not have the job go to a National. According to Penelope Arthur of Queensland Country Life, potential preselection contenders in Maranoa include David Littleproud, a Toowoomba bank manager; Robert Loughnan, mayor of Maranoa; and Cameron O’Neil, a Maranoa councillor. Cameron Atfield of Fairfax reports that state Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg has ruled himself out, despite being “subject of pressure from some quarters of the Liberal National Party to run for a federal seat”. Labor’s preselected candidate is Dave Kerrigan, a rural health worker.
• The ABC reports that Steve Georganas will face opposition from “long-time Labor member” Delia Brennan in his bid for Labor preselection in the Adelaide seat of Hindmarsh, which he lost to Liberal candidate Matt Williams after nine years as member in 2013. However, The Australian reports that Georganas is “widely expected to win easily”. Mark Ward, a school teacher and candidate for the state by-election for Davenport in January, has won preselection to run against Liberal incumbent and Speakership aspirant Andrew Southcott in Boothby. Labor’s preselection process for Christopher Pyne’s seat of Sturt is ongoing.
• My paywalled Crikey contributions over the past fortnight or so concern Labor’s position on boat turnbacks and the contrast presented with the Labour Party in Britain, which appears poised to choose hard left ideologue Jeremy Corbyn as its new leader; the Tasmanian Greens preselection process that will shortly see former federal party leader Christine Milne succeeded by former state party leader Nick McKim; a Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters inquiry that appears to have been established due to Coalition concerns about emergency services union activists campaigning for Labor while wearing work-related apparel; the state of play in Western Australian state politics as the parties grapple with the implications of a just-announced redistribution; and, in yesterday’s edition, the coming prime ministership of Nick Xenophon.
Airline marketing FAIL!
https://twitter.com/vanOnselenP/status/629911858057641984
Yeah, Clive, given the Libs basically said “hell no we won’t even consider a Nat getting that lolly” I really can’t see that happening.
@Ctar1/1150
What a reply!
Nothing suits you! There is plenty of solutions available, and have been posted here (including my own), and in the media.
But however, no one wants to do the hard work.
[But however, no one wants to do the hard work.]
You’re obviously ‘hard at it’ on here where it doesn’t matter and not doing more to defeat all these things you don’t ‘like”.
[ Jackol
Posted Saturday, August 8, 2015 at 5:11 pm | Permalink
phoenix –
if there is no dramatic reason to upgrade wait awhile till the geeks iron all the buggy issues, then upgrade ….
This is sensible advice any time you’re dealing with software.
My concerns, though, are not so much about “bugs” – bugs will be sorted out and MS have been very good in recent years at actually fixing their operating systems to be remarkably stable and functional. I trust them on that.
]
I guess it all falls into “who do you trust ????? ” MS or Apple or others such as Linux or whoever ?????? Posters on here have argued over that WHO is ….. its a personal decision which way we all go ….
I guess the problem for Microsoft is they have to figure out how to monetise their users if they’re moving to products as services and they don’t have a significant hardware division like Apple.
Windows Infinite, which is what 10 really is, was pretty much inevitable I think, but Microsoft can’t afford to rely on enterprise and a rapidly declining PC purchases market for the Windows section of their profits. They tried hardware and it just hasn’t worked…I guess copying Google and moving toward being more of an advertising company is the next trick to try.
phoenix –
Indeed. In my original post on this, I did point out that given my concerns the only logical choice was to ditch Windows in future and commit to transitioning to Linux as my primary OS, but doing so is not going to be without … discomfort.
Other people, clearly, will be choosing differently.
jackol
I have a cheap notebook I use when traveling and the first thing I did was strip XP off it and install Linux.
But using it for an everyday computer is still a stretch.
[Insiders ABC
Insiders ABC – @InsidersABC
On #insiders Sun 9am @RichardDiNatale + panel @barriecassidy @latingle @markgkenny + Niki Savva #auspol @ABCNews24
Embedded image
10:35 PM – 6 Aug 2015]
[Jackol
Posted Saturday, August 8, 2015 at 5:25 pm | Permalink
phoenix –
Posters on here have argued over that WHO is ….. its a personal decision which way we all go ….
Indeed. In my original post on this, I did point out that given my concerns the only logical choice was to ditch Windows in future and commit to transitioning to Linux as my primary OS, but doing so is not going to be without … discomfort.
Other people, clearly, will be choosing differently.
]
I can only say I have stuck with several interrations of windows : 95-XP-98-7 ….and tried to always use good security softwares – MSE, Malwarebytes Antimalware, SpywareBlaster etc etc….and am not into porno-warez or downloading latest pirated movie/tv stuff …then I can’t complain about MS stuff … but YMMV ….. but I appreciate others may have vastly different experience and gone to another OS as a result
Disturbing and unacceptable: mixing criminal with asylum seekers.
One asylum seeker dead, in unexplained circumstances.
This happened in Perth. What is this, Burma?
[It started with a night attack. Three weeks ago, a group of criminals broke into Mohammad Nasim Najafi’s room in the Yongah Hill Immigration Detention Centre outside Perth, scattering his belongings and beating him.
Overcrowded prisons mean half of the detainees at the centre are convicted criminals rather than asylum seekers]
https://www.thesaturdaypaper.com.au/news/law-crime/2015/08/08/how-mohammad-nasim-najafi-died-detention-centre/14389560002226
victoria
Nice that Savva will be on. She can tell us what she really thinks about Abbott 😀
ctar1 –
I hear you.
[The Prime Minister said on Tuesday he wants to make it “crystal clear” that the Coalition will not seek to change the workplace relations system in its first-term of government.
“I want to absolutely stress that this is a draft report,” the Prime Minister said, according to Fairfax.
Well the bleeding obvious rational that follows is…..I will in my next term ( If the people are stupid enough to give me the chance).
So why isn’t this pressed in subsequent interviews… journalists too stupid I guess.]
Don’t worry. The Labor advertising will be all over it during the election campaign I’m sure. I can’t believe Abbott was so stupid as to use that form of words. It’s a time bomb just waiting to go off.
[Our economy is a machine for moving wealth from the many to the few – jobs disappear and thousands of young men feel themselves superfluous. As inequality grows, so will the shootings and bombings.
The rhetoric of cigar-smoking treasurers and fur-clad speakers of the House are not what we need right now. There is a great deal we can do – as parents, schoolteachers, family and friends of boys and men. And as men ourselves. We can teach honour and respect to boys, treat them well, include them, and direct their energies. We can create specific pathways to a better kind of manhood in our curricula and in our sporting and cultural activities. We can identify at-risk and alienated males and bring them back into the fold. We can increase the warmth and empathy we show to babies and little children, so their brains are calm and their compassion for other develops to the full.
But far more urgently than this, since the danger is so immediate and great, we must also work to reconstruct the basis of our society away from earn-and-spend, from entrenched selfishness as the very meaning of our lives. The alternative is hell on earth, the fires of which are already well alight.]
Read more: http://www.theage.com.au/comment/hatred-in-men-a-deep-and-dangerous-problem-for-the-world-20150806-giszhg.html#ixzz3iCvTg09M
[I can only say I have stuck with several interrations of windows : 95-XP-98-7 ….and tried to always use good security softwares – MSE, Malwarebytes Antimalware, SpywareBlaster etc etc….and am not into porno-warez or downloading latest pirated movie/tv stuff]
This is me, although I do confess to periodically using tuebl to download ebooks that aren’t available through kobo. I don’t know if this is illegal or whatever though.
[ Well the bleeding obvious rational that follows is…..I will in my next term ]
Yup. This is going to be a problem. 🙂
People will want to be extracting public record “gospel truth” promises out of Abbott in the run up to the next election, that AREN’T qualified in the bullshit ways he has tried to wriggle about on regarding the promises he made in 2013.
I agree that WorkChoices will be a particular problem for him, but it wont be the only one.
Darn
We are slowly learning that we have to complete Abbott’s and Joe’s sentences for them. A promise that ‘we will not ….’ must be supplemented with ‘in our first term’. I remember them trying to pretend that they had broken no promises in Budget 2014 because they only applied to ‘our first term’.
lizzie@968
Sorry lizzie. Have only saw your response now.
I am inclined to agree. I think we can easily accommodate the extra population without needing to rip up most of our natural landscape, and there is much to say about efficiently managing our current resources to cope.
It is indeed those who are speaking up about an overpopulated Australia tends to be over-represented by the xenophobic sort. I’m sorry to lump them together with those with genuine concerns about population, but they need to understand that the population ought to not just grow in the capital cities.
Ironically, it is from the dense inner-city populations that are more open to population growth.
[ and tried to always use good security softwares ]
I try and check the various PC magazines that review security software at the begining of each year and pick a free one that works well. This year and last was BitDefender Free and MalwareBytes.
Avoid Nortons. 🙁 Has a baddddddd rep for using a lot of resources in the background and i have had a much easier time since i dumped it.
I’d be more concerned about water restrictions than soil. Australia exports a huge proportion of her agricultural output; more mouths to feed would just divert that to domestic consumption.
But I think the point that Australia can physically hold more people is certainly valid. I don’t know what the realistic carrying capacity for this continent is, but it’s certainly higher than 23 million.
phoenix –
Same here. I didn’t use 95 so much (a bit, but it wasn’t on my “home computer” – I was in the painful transition from being an Amiga fanboy to working out what was actually useful), but have used DOS/NT/XP/Vista/7 for work and at home, as well as a long but always kind of peripheral relationship with various UNIXes.
It just strikes me that, as teh_drewski points out above, that MS is being forced into a new business model. What they made money off in the past is (probably) not going to work for them in the future. I understand that. But what it means is that the relationship between MS and its users is necessarily changing, and what I see on the MS side of that relationship in the future means that the past is probably not a good guide as to what to expect.
Not that it ever is in the tech world.
lizzie
Niki Savva is not backwards in coming forward
@ctar1/1154
“on here where it doesn’t matter and not doing more to defeat all these things you don’t ‘like”
Ohhh scary!
Perhaps you should spend more time arguing for a solution, than arguing with me, who you apparently don’t ‘like’.
In response to a query from me, Adam said it was an ReachTEL poll.
https://twitter.com/adamgartrell/status/629923675647574016
[Adam Gartrell @adamgartrell
Voters punish Abbott for the Bishop scandal and Shorten surges ahead as preferred PM. Read more polling in the Sun-Herald and Sunday Age.
5:54 PM – 8 Aug 2015]
Ipsos WOW*
*haven’t actually seen it, but based on Adam Gartrell’s tweets it will drop in the Sunday papers
never mind me then
Fairfax papers reporting a Reachtel?
[Avoid Nortons. 🙁 Has a baddddddd rep for using a lot of resources in the background ]
I thought that was just me! My laptop came pre-installed with it on a trial basis and I ended up not renewing and junking it after the 3 months because it was very resource-intensive.
I use Malwarebytes and the Microsoft antivirus.
[In response to a query from me, Adam said it was an ReachTEL poll.]
There is supposed to be a Newspoll/Galaxy/whatever it is now this weekend as well.
Uninstalling the malware masquerading as virus scanning software from a new PC is genuinely the first thing I do, even in the free trial period.
Windows Defender and Malwarebytes if something is being fishy are all you need these days.
[ I thought that was just me! ]
No, my work provided the full version for our home computers a while back. Not a chance i would use it again. 🙁
I used the MS antivirus a while. Its not bad, but last time i checked didn’t review very well vs some of the other free ones for threat detection.
Some bad polling for the Libs coming up?? How Sad. 🙁
[If you don’t like what has happened, look at the validity of the rules, not criticisw those who operate within the rules.]
The rules are obviously a problem but the pollies get to make their own rules.
The rules should take into account public expectation and helicopter flights to fund raisers and flying your kids business class to a holiday are beyond what it is reasonable for the taxpayer to cough up for.
MTBW@1036
I’m not too fussed about what MPs spend on as long as it’s on parliamentary business, but I do like full transparency on this to allow voters to scrutinise.
trand – yes, because they have occasionally paid for ReachTEL polls, including during the bridging period between their Nielsen & Ipsos polling. If they don’t pay for them (e.g. it was one of Channel Seven’s) any mention will be restricted to a line in a general politics article, if that. But ReachTEL do get used at times by most of the media, robopolling is fairly cheap, and they are good at it. News Corp paid for one in the NT as I recall.
Fair enough – so would you expect there’s an Ipsos due soon as well then?
Raaraa
[but I do like full transparency on this to allow voters to scrutinise.]
I said the same thing this morning and got ridiculed for it.
[Some bad polling for the Libs coming up?? How Sad. 🙁 ]
Yes, we need Abbott to continue as leader.
zoidlord
[But however, no one wants to do the hard work.]
The Greens have tried over the years, including introducing several bills.
December 2014: http://lee-rhiannon.greensmps.org.au/content/media-releases/greens-bill-ban-political-donations-developers-tobacco-alcohol-gambling-and-m
[Greens democracy spokesperson Senator Lee Rhiannon will today introduce into the Senate the party’s Donations Reform Bill that would ban political donations from developers, tobacco, alcohol, gambling and mining industries.
“The Bill if passed would help bring consistency to electoral funding laws and restore public confidence in the work of governments, ministers and individual MPs.
“Reform at the federal level is long overdue.
“The Greens Bill would forbid parties accepting money or gifts from the five industries. We have targeted these businesses as they are perceived as having an inappropriate influence on decision makers.]
and
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/greens-push-for-national-reform-of-donations-laws-20141203-11zhz2.html
[The Greens have long pushed for national reform of donations laws but have faced resistance from the major parties to their calls for a national anti-corruption watchdog.]
At its last national conference Labor couldn’t even get support for a motion to establish a federal ICAC.
http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/jul/29/labor-conference-rejected-push-federal-anti-corruption-commission
[Tony Sheldon, national secretary of the Transport Workers Union and a former party vice-president, had included a motion for a federal independent commission against corruption at last weekend’s national ALP conference but it was taken down at the last minute.]
April 2014: http://greens.org.au/node/4331
[he Australian Greens have called on both Liberal and Labor to urgently consider legislation for a national ICAC-equivalent in light of recent events in NSW politics.
An Australian Greens bill for a national Integrity Commissioner is already before federal Parliament. Among other integrity measures, the bill would establish a new Office of the Independent Parliamentary Adviser to advise MPs and Ministers on entitlements claims and the ethical running of their office that the public rightly expects. The adviser will also be tasked with developing a legally binding code of conduct for MPs for the Parliament to adopt.]
[than arguing with me]
I truly can’t be bothered.
Some things in life suit, others don’t.
“Australian Cricket Captain Michael Clarke has apologised for his team’s disgraceful showing on the first day of the fourth Ashes test saying that, in retrospect, the team should have made an effort to get runs.
“I think that’s where we fell down,” said Clarke. “When you get back to the pavilion and you’re going over the day you realise that what we needed to do was not get out and instead of that score a whole lot of runs.
“For example, if instead of having both of our openers fall without scoring they should have tried to make a fifty or perhaps even a century. Then, by the time Steve Smith had come in we would have already had quite a few runs on the board. From that point Steve Smith could get even more runs and soon a snowball effect starts to happen.”
Clarke said upon reflection he believed Australia’s tactics were a mistake and based on poor information.”
Love it ..Lol!!
http://www.sbs.com.au/comedy/article/2015/08/07/michael-clarke-admits-retrospect-they-shouldve-tried-score-runs
I would have said they’d do an Ipsos this weekend, if only because of all the recent hoopla. Can only presume its going to be next week, but who knows. Depends how prominant the ReachTEL coverage tomorrow is. If they front page it, you’d think that’s it for Fairfax poll coverage this weekend.
MTBW
[I said the same thing this morning and got ridiculed for it.]
Nonsense. You got ridiculed because you made some silly remarks about integrity.
Democracy for Sale web site: http://democracyforsale.net/
[The Democracy for Sale project is an initiative of Greens Senator Lee Rhiannon on behalf of the Greens NSW. The Greens took a leading role in the campaign to reform electoral funding laws because we believe corporate donations taint the democratic process – they allow big business to buy a level of access to politicians that ordinary people can’t afford.
Democracy for Sale has been the centrepiece of the Greens campaign for far reaching reform of political funding. The campaign has also included private members bills, public meetings and the preparation of many briefs on donation stories for journalists. Former NSW Premier Iemma’s decision in 2009 to begin reform of the political funding regime was certainly linked to the growing number of scandals that dogged both the Coalition and Labor parties. Without a massive public outcry the major parties would have happily continued to pocket the millions of dollars from corporate and group donations that have become the lifeline for their exorbitant election campaigns.]
[ I would have said they’d do an Ipsos this weekend, ]
Well, be nice for someone to release something tomorrow that will stir the pot fro the return of Parliament on the 10th. 🙂
http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/tony-abbotts-good-government-pledge-put-to-the-test-20150808-giumsv.html
Worth a read!
peg
what do any of those items you’ve posted have to do with reform of political perks?
If anything, they’re about shifting more costs on to the taxpayer.
[Greens democracy spokesperson Senator Lee Rhiannon will today introduce into the Senate the party’s Donations Reform Bill that would ban political donations from developers, tobacco, alcohol, gambling and mining industries.]
I will point out that the ALP doesn’t accept political donations from the tobacco industry. I genuinely don’t know about some of the others, although I think it was the ALP who banned donations from developers in NSW.
I’d have thought Newspoll might drop a day early for the resumption of Parliament, but there would hardly be any point with monday reserved for condolence motions
Phoenix
“I can only say I have stuck with several interrations of windows”
??????
Looking forward to Cats v Swans tonight. All eyes on Adam Goodes and the Geelong crowd.
Tony Abbott tried his hand at AFL these last few days, including a cringeworthy interview on 3AW, and this
@vanbadham: The Great Australian Realisation: a tale of two photographs. #auspol http://t.co/XWgFmtImCb