BludgerTrack: 51.5-48.5 to Labor

Two new polls, one stagnant and the other strong for Labor, reverse last week’s move of the poll aggregate pendulum to the Coalition.

This week’s reading of the BludgerTrack poll aggregate, which has new results from Newspoll and Essential Research to play with, smooths away last week’s movement to the Coalition to the extent of suggesting that Labor would more likely emerge at the head of the projected minority government. Labor makes three gains on the seat projection, including one seat each in New South Wales, Victoria and Queensland. A drop in the Greens vote is partly down to an unusually strong result in the last Ipsos poll washing out of the system, but there have also been some slightly softer numbers for them in polls released over the last fortnight. The model doesn’t quite yet know how to deal with the new-look Galaxy-conducted Newspoll, which has come in at the high end for Labor on the primary vote in its two polls so far, in contrast with the habits of the Newspoll of old. As a result, it’s not being weighted too heavily just at the moment. Hopefully new results from more established poll series with better-understood biases will help clear the air over the coming weeks. Newspoll’s leadership numbers have caused a further loss of skin for Bill Shorten, putting Tony Abbott with his nose back in front on preferred prime minister.

Furthermore:

• The sudden death of Liberal MP Don Randall on Tuesday will presumably mean a by-election will be held in his outer southern Perth seat of Canning at some point, perhaps in September or October, assuming there’s no early general election on the boil. Mandurah mayor Marina Vergone has been mentioned to me as a potential contestant for Liberal preselection, but all such talk at this stage is in the realm of speculation. Randall’s margin at the 2013 election was 11.8%, but a fair chunk of that appears to have been his personal vote – the Liberal two-party vote in the electorate’s booths was 7% lower at the March 2013 state election than at the federal election, compared with a 1% differential statewide. I had a paywalled article on the subject in Crikey yesterday.

• Michael Owen of The Australian reports Labor’s state executive in South Australia has initiated proceedings for federal preselections in the state’s three potentially winnable Liberal-held seats, together with all those held by Labor, where the incumbents are expected to be uncontested. Steve Georganas is the reported front-runner in Hindmarsh, which he held from 2004 until 2013 when he was unseated by current Liberal member Matt Williams, who sits on a margin of 1.9%. Potential nominees for Boothby and Sturt, respectively held for the Liberals by Andrew Southcott on a 7.1% margin and Christopher Pyne on a 10.1% margin, are respectively said to include Mark Ward, a high school teacher and Mitcham councillor who was narrowly unsuccessful in the Davenport state by-election in January, and Jo Chapley, an in-house legal counsel for Foodland supermarkets who performed strongly against Opposition Leader Steven Marshall in his seat of Dunstan at the March 2014 state election.

• The Australian last week published the regular annual Newspoll survey on expectations in respondents’ standard of living over the six months to come, and found 13% expecting them to improve, down three points on an improved result last year, a steady 22% expecting them to get worse, and 64% expecting them to stay the same, up four points.

• As well as the aforementioned Canning by-election article, my paywalled contributions to Crikey over the past fortnight considered the possibility of a double dissolution, moves at the state conference of Queensland’s Liberal National Party to strengthen state executive powers to reject preselection applications and disendorse troublesome candidates, and the inconsistency of the Greens’ poll results.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

3,043 comments on “BludgerTrack: 51.5-48.5 to Labor”

Comments Page 3 of 61
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  1. [“@david_manne: As Labor consider #asylum boat turn-back policy, this is clear: if all States did so,the global #refugee protection framework would collapse”]
    Not if Australia continues to take recognised asylum seekers from UNHCR refugee camps. Some people should not damage their credibility whith overblown rhetoric.

  2. “@political_alert: The Prime Minister and State and Territory leaders will hold a COAG Press Conference at 11.40am, Victoria Barracks, Sydney #auspol”

  4. Desert Fox

    You are so proud of this policy. Why are you for hiding it? Let the media meaning we the public see what happens.

    The government and you with this secrecy that has nothing to do with national security are showing you are ashamed of the policy

  5. [“The ALP should adopt an enlightened policy of taking a proportion of our offshore quota from refugee camps in the region. We should fund these so that they actually process people – unlike at present. “]

    The lefts “solutions” much like their thinking is simple, based on the world as being the perfect place that will work like clockwork and nobody trying to bend the rules or rort the system.

    So alas when you ask the left a few basic questions their whole offshore processing centre proposal falls to bits… hit by reality like a freight truck through a styrofoam wall.

    Let’s ask these questions now shall we.

    1. What is the quota of numbers of people you plan to process per year?

    2. What happens once the quota has been reached?

    3. What happens to the people you deem not to be refugees?

    4. What happens if those people jump on a boat to Australia?

    Some simple questions, much too complex for those on the left to answer truthfully.

  6. BB @ 69

    [Because turning back boats seems to work, at least in isolation: less boats get through]

    Of course, we simply don’t know how it is done, but it is being done. We are asked by this Government to believe it is done by legitimate means and we have to accept on the face of it that a democratic government would not authorise or turn a blind eye to anything criminal being done on behalf of the nation.

    In the circumstances, it would be absurd for a party that opposed unauthorised boat arrivals while in Government, and continues to do so, to not accept that the current government has found an apparently lawful way of achieving turn backs. It also would be wrong for a party with a realistic chance of achieving power to simply ignore the position of a large majority of voters, who also support apparently lawful turn backs.

    So, Labor supports turn backs in principle, given that the Coalition has succeeded in finding a way to achieve those turn backs in an apparently lawful way. Of course, if Labor get into power and find that our armed forces have acted criminally in our name – that is a different story altogether and one that will need to be made public.

  7. Predictions:
    1. Coward Abbott will not go on 7.30 live, if at all
    2. If he does attend Sales will treat him with the utmost respect, some half hearted interruptions
    3. She will not hold him to the same standard as Shorten re talking about the other side
    4. If Abbott even slightly inconvenienced by the questions he will lash out.
    5. One day the ABC will get rid of 7.30, its tired and predictable format and its inadequate and partisan host.

  8. Whilst people continue to take the bait and ‘look over there its a red herring boat’ Crikey has an article that is headlined “Stronger CPI result suggests real wage drop”.

    So on top of transferring billions of dollars from lower income earners to the rich leaners and cutting social services, the COALition is presiding over and causing rising unemployment [greater now than at any time during the ALP government years], cutting real wages – note that -real wages are actually stagnant or going backwards – cutting $80 billion from states’ funding and then suggesting, with help from the media and Liberal Premiers, to further tax the lower income people more than the rich by expanding the regressive GST whilst maintaining tax subsidies to the rich.

    But don’t worry about all of that trivial stuff folks you keep yacking about that boat over there.

  9. zoomster@34

    Soc

    It was falling apart well before Kosky – I was in an electorate office in 2000 and rail problems were our main source of complaints.

    Part of the problem Labor had (probably has now) was dealing with the mish mash of ownership and leases of the system left behind by Kennett.

    To deal with the problems on the Albury line, for example, they had to wait several years until the opportunity came up to purchase it, because the contractors who ran the line were not required to maintain it to a satisfactory standard.

    The problems go back to the Bolte era or earlier.

    There has just been no expansion of the network to keep pace with development and little serious re-development of antiquated stations.

    Whereas a radial topology might have made sense with a smaller Melbourne with the CBD as the only serious business district, there is now much more demand for cross suburban travel that the rail system ignores and buses provide a second rate alternative.

    Melbourne has had too much of a focus on freeways. There is seemingly no problem in building tens of Km of grade separated freeway, and yet Melbourne’s rail system is still plagued by far too many level crossings!

    And those are only the obvious problems.

  11. df

    When are your parents going to apologise for not using contraception.

    What sort of arsehole uses the name of a Nazi scumbag to post on an Australian website shithead?

  12. Heard Marles on 3aw this morning. I had previously had my reservations about his ability to perform in interviews, largely because of negative comments made about him by some here, but I am happy to report that he was excellent on this occasion.

    Mitchell very aggressively tried every kind of gotcha in his bag of tricks but Marles parried them with ease. He also refused to be put off by Mitchell’s constant interruptions, to the point where Mitchell pretty much gave up in the end and just listened to what he was saying.

    If he can continue in this vein he will be a very good advocate and backup for Shorten in selling this policy. Ten out of ten for his performance this morning.

  13. df

    When are your parents going to apologise for not using contraception.

    What sort of arsehole uses the name of a Nazi scumbag to post on an Australian website?

  15. IT

    [“@david_manne: As Labor consider #asylum boat turn-back policy, this is clear: if all States did so,the global #refugee protection framework would collapse”]

    I assume he is kidding.

    The ‘global refugee protection framework’ works for less than 1% of globally displaced people now.

  18. [very lazy and simply shallow bullshit ( I couldn’t even come close to calling it journalism ).]

    and yet you have given a near faultless definition of how ‘journalism’ is actually practiced.

  19. @TBA/62

    Why doesn’t Coalition Party apologies to the thousands that died in the Mediterranean sea, AND millions in refugee status due war and poverty?

    You are stupid.

  20. “@ABCNews24: Sarah Hanson-Young: Pushing boats away doesn’t save lives, it pushes people to die in someone else’s waters #auspol #asylumseekers”

    “@ABCNews24: Sarah Hanson-Young: Turning boats back is all about border protection, it’s not about protecting refugees #auspol #asylumseekers”

    “@ABCNews24: Sarah Hanson-Young: I think many Labor voters will be heartbroken by the boat turn back policy #auspol #asylumseekers”

    “@ABCNews24: Sarah Hanson-Young: The Labor Party has become a thin-veiled image of the Liberal Party #auspol #asylumseekers”

    “@ABCNews24: Sarah Hanson-Young: It’s the coward’s way to play politics with people’s lives #auspol #asylumseekers”

    “@ABCNews24: Sarah Hanson-Young: Bill Shorten’s back flip is more about politics than it is about policy or compassion #auspol #asylumseekers”

    “@ABCNews24: Sarah Hanson-Young: Labor have been vacating the common-sense practical response on #refugees for a long time #auspol #asylumseekers”

  21. hey bludgers.

    Sorry if I was in a discussion with anyone last time I stopped posting.

    [Whilst attention is being focused on ‘a boat’ the COALition is transferring billions of dollars into the pockets of its rich mates, then crying budget/welfare crisis and aiming at taxing the poor even more by unnecessarily raising the GST.

    Context.]

    Shea – right on.

    Why this “don’t mention the class war” attitude from everyone today? It barely gets mentioned. I could only listen to 5 seconds of Joe Hockey this morning before I lost it and turned the telly off. Its 2015 and that idiot is talking about preparing Australia for the 21st century – just STFU you mindless drone.

  22. Desert Fox 77:

    It is quite hilarious that people ask for apologies by people who had nothing to do with a past event over which nobody had any control.

    This is a current media ‘tactic’ for lazy journalists.

  23. @It’s Time/101

    Remember it was Coalition Party that wanted to get rid of the refugee protection framework, Labor is following suit.

    Protection of Refugees and Detention Center maintenance/health of Refugees cost the goverment money.

    It is better for the goverment and Labor party to be cruel as possible.

  24. [If it is going to come down to a competition between Shorten and Abbott on who is more likely to keep their word, then you have already lost.]

    Yep. Abbott might even be deluding himself that he can recycle Howard’s ‘who do you trust?’ crud. Problem of course that Abbott lies so much even Honest John would blush, the economy was powering ahead in 2004, and Howard went on to prove he actually couldn’t be trusted with workchoices.

    Labor would love nothing more than to make the election all about Abbott and his trustworthiness. All Shorten has to do is say I am making this as a solemn election pledge, and unlike Tony Abbott I only make election pledges I intend to keep.

  27. [“Heard Marles on 3aw this morning. I had previously had my reservations about his ability to perform in interviews, largely because of negative comments made about him by some here, but I am happy to report that he was excellent on this occasion. “]

    Marles is as weak as dish water and has failed to put his dent on the Immigration portfolio. He is certainly no Scott Morrison, if Marles had any backbone he would have forced Labors hand on boat turn backs about 2 Years ago.

    Just another gutless wonder Labor Immigration Minister… let the boats come as they say

  34. zoidlord and sheamcduff

    Exactly its the economy stupid works for the campaign. That will overwhelm AS just as it did in 07.

    This is why I think Labor did not need the turn back option. However I do not mind now as I think it will mean a hung parliament and Labor can change again as they have turn back as an option not as bed rock must do policy.

  35. Its Time

    Nah just an accurate statement of fact. She like us and unlike the MSM can read the polls. She can see one term Tony too.

  37. Tricot @ 98

    [It is still a puzzle to me why 47%+- of the electorate still have the stomach to support this government.]

    It seems to me that having already given a blank cheque to a leader as hopeless as Abbott, there are still a substantial number of voters who are not prepared to sign off on another blank cheque by putting a Shorten led Labor into government. The TARC just showed voters how little they knew about Shorten. Shorten is already ramping up his presence and ramping up a position that Labor is the only party that has a view of Australia in the future, while the Coalition is mired in the past.

    Whenever the next election occurs, there is sufficient time for Labor to keep filling in the gaps and providing a more positive view of itself and its leader. Abbott thinks that the past will repeat itself and that he, the great campaigner, energised by the thrill of the campaign, will easily close the gap and win another famous victory. Abbott, as always, puts too much store in the patterns of the past and not enough in the lessons of the past.

  38. [Let’s ask these questions now shall we.

    1. What is the quota of numbers of people you plan to process per year?

    2. What happens once the quota has been reached?

    3. What happens to the people you deem not to be refugees?

    4. What happens if those people jump on a boat to Australia?

    Some simple questions, much too complex for those on the left to answer truthfully.]

    Happy to

    1. Australia decides that one. Once its full, no more. As I said, a proper UNHCR camp will se other countries take from it. Note that they boycott our offshore centres. So Who’s the realist here? No one takes from Nauru except us in the end. Thats what Abbott wont tell you. Theyll all come here one day, just like under Howard. You’ve been conned.

    2. Once the quota reached, you wait till next year. Same as any centres in Middle East or Africa. Whats so special about our region that we cant do the same as elsewhere? Simple questions that you cant answer.

    3. People not deemed to be refugees are not selected for refugee programs. Wow, these questions are so hard.

    4. When people see a functioning regional queue (something we’ve never had as the surrounding countries are not signatories) waaaaayy fewer will take boats. If they do, you can be then more punitive, without the sense that you’re actually just a a bunch of deadshits tormenting the defenceless victims of regimes we allegedly oppose. Why? Because you provided a lawful route to orderly refugee processing (like we say we do). If THEN they jump the queue, when there is an actual queue, go for you life. Turn back boats, whatever.

    It the meantime its all just bullshit, this.

    I fond your questions very easy to answer, TBA. Now try mine above.

  39. [127
    TrueBlueAussie

    “Heard Marles on 3aw this morning. I had previously had my reservations about his ability to perform in interviews, largely because of negative comments made about him by some here, but I am happy to report that he was excellent on this occasion. ”

    Marles is as weak as dish water and has failed to put his dent on the Immigration portfolio. He is certainly no Scott Morrison, if Marles had any backbone he would have forced Labors hand on boat turn backs about 2 Years ago.

    Just another gutless wonder Labor Immigration Minister… let the boats come as they say]

    This is yet another example of the LNP using the misfortunes of refugees to attack its enemies. The LNP has used refugee policy as a wedge issue for most of the last 15 years. It’s been very successful for them. They have no qualms at all about vilifying refugees, about their exemplary punishment and maltreatment, about trafficking the vulnerable into captivity and exploitation. The LNP have taken us all down the proverbial road to perdition.

    They are an absolute disgrace on this issue as on so many others.

  40. [136
    guytaur

    “@jc_cummins: Former Greek Finance Minister @yanisvaroufakis will be chatting with @albericie on #Lateline tonight.”]

    Perhaps he will be asked to give an explanation for his destruction of the Greek private sector.

  43. Meanwhile, stay tuned for a massive rise in GRN vote, and the fall of nearly all inner-city ALP seats.

    The ALP would be wiser to append a tough policy on top of genuine regional processing; and a dedicated genuine regional quota. That would be an actual policy difference.

    Here’s the thing, and its well established by research among asylum seekers: people dont actually *want* to take boats. Its dangerous.

    Our setup is so insane, we even have UNHCR refugees taking boats here. Or theyll wait their whole lives in Indonesia.

    You can craft policy round these realities. Abbott can even talk to the Indonesian President. Thats how crap his policy is in terms of regional side-effects. Its a disaster. The oz media dont even mention it, but its totally FUBAR.

    Again, I ask: whats so special about our region that we cant do it the same way as Africa and Middle east?

    Ive heard people argue: “But it’ll create a honeypot in SE Asia!” Oh please, if you think the UNHCR camps in Jordan are a honeypot for middle eastern refuges fleeing ISIS and/or authoritarian regimes you’re off your rocker. Its a refuge. Everyone would rather stay at home and not be persecuted.

  45. ASRC ‏@ASRC1 1m1 minute ago

    “Our country desperately needs an alternative to the current punitive policy.” #NoTurnbacks #Lab15 @billshortenmp @AustralianLabor

  46. [I thought Bill Shorten was opposed to violence against women?

    If so then why does he want to shut down the ABCC?]

    Not content with using the deaths of so many poor asylum seekers as nothing more than a pathetic, immoral nasty stick to beat Labor with, DF happily joins the disgusting Paul
    Sheehan to use the vile scourge of domestic violence to engage in a spot of union bashing.

    People like Sheehan and you are only interested in the vileness that seethes beneath the surface if it helps them progress their political objectives. Compassion does not exist with you people; only political opportunism.

  47. [The WA Labor Party looks set to push back at a new demand to give average members a greater say in the selection of Senators, raising fears left-wing unions will continue to dictate who represents the State in the Upper House.]

    <a href="http://blogs.crikey.com.au/pollbludger/2015/07/23/bludgertrack-51-5-48-5-to-labor-2/?comment_page=2/#comment-2221882&quot; >zoomster@58

    Tsk, the Left resisting a move to make the Labor party more democratic. Who’d have thunk it?

    Wait… the left resisting a leftward push to the party?

  48. leftye

    [The ALP should adopt an enlightened policy of taking a proportion of our offshore quota from refugee camps in the region.]

    Why in the region? The UNHCR doesn’t rate this region very highly when it comes to refugees it wants resettled.

    You’re suggesting we ‘solve’ Australia’s problem by ignoring refugees in greater need, an attitude I find selfish.

    [This will stop boats, without the expense or bullshit or abuse of defenceless people.]

    Not necessarily. At least some of those who get on the boats do so because they know they have more chance that way then they would going through normal channels.

    They’re not interested in going near a camp, regardless of the efficiency of the process.

    [Once those UNHCR camps and processes are running properly,other receiving countries will take from them.]

    Why shouldn’t other receiving countries take from them from word go, if they’re UNHCR camps?

  49. [I hate it when pollies fudge the answer and only give a Yes or No when hard pressed after numerous questions.]

    I find it impossible to prevaricate when asked for a yes/no answer.

    When I first entered politics, I thought this would be a major drawback — but I soon found that virtually no journalist ever asks a yes/no question. They come at everything sideways, because they’re trying to trap you.

  50. The ALP constantly misjudges the politics of this issue.

    Swing voters DONT vote on border protection policies.

    They DO however take note of when a party appears to be pushing a policy they dont really believe in.

    Rudd saw this. He’s the only ALP leader to win majority government since Keating in 1993. So much for the theory that your need a tough policy to win government.

    Get smarter ALP, here’s a policy that will cover left and right flanks:

    1. Regional processing, by the UNHCR, funded by us (trust me, this is miles cheaper than the current policies)

    2. Increase the offshore quota, sure, great. But the important part is this: a dedicated regional component. From the new camps which ow actually work to process refugees (unlike presently). Yes, thats an ambition, but a good one.

    3. Then, and only then, if people take boats, sure, deny them visas etc. Who knows, if you stop pissing the Indos off so much they may even receive those people in the UNHCR camps, knowing that Australia (and now NZ, Canada, other countries with a quota) are helping solve their asylum seeker problem over time.

    In the end, this is the only solution that both stops boats and lives up to our word as signatories to the UNHCR convention. The LNP policy fails on the 2nd score completely.

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