Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor; Newspoll: 52-48

Two new polls tell a number of familiar stories, with the Greens up, two-party preferred steady, and both Prime Minister and Opposition Leader sinking on personal approval.

Two new polls, including the first Newspoll conducted under the wing of Galaxy, show no signs of change in the relative standings of the two major parties, and record both Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten sinking on personal approval.

The latest monthly Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers also adds to the weight of surging support for the Greens, but is otherwise largely unchanged on last time. Both major parties are down on the primary vote – Labor by two points to 35%, and the Coalition by one to 39% – making room for a two point increase for the Greens to 16%. Labor’s two-party preferred support is at 53% on both respondent-allocated and previous election measures, respectively amounting to a one-point drop and no change. Both leaders have taken a hit on personal approval, with Tony Abbott down four points on approval to 36% and up five on disapproval to 59%, while Bill Shorten is down six to 35% and up eight to 55%. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister has nonetheless widened from 42-41 to 43-39. The poll was conducted from Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1402.

The Newspoll result for The Australian has Labor leading 52-48, from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 13% for the Greens. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings of 33% approval and 60% disapproval are the worst he has recorded from any pollster in about two months, while Bill Shorten’s respective figures of 28% and 54% slightly shade the last Newspoll as his worst numbers ever. The two are level on preferred prime minister at 39% apiece. Given that this is the result of an entirely new methodology, combining automated phone and internet polling with a sample of 1631 (compared with the old Newspoll’s interviewer-administered landline phone polling and samples of around 1150), comparing it with previous results is more than usually unilluminating.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,425 comments on “Fairfax-Ipsos: 53-47 to Labor; Newspoll: 52-48”

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  1. [Still won’t stop companies being hacked, because that’s not what security laws or their enforcers are interested in.]

    FFS x 10, 000 They should be concerned with security if they’re going to be using third parties.

    More on the Hacking Team hack.

    [It’s unclear how the hackers got their hands on the stash, but judging from the leaked files, they broke into the computers of Hacking Team’s two systems administrators, Christian Pozzi and Mauro Romeo, who had access to all the company’s files, according to the source.

    “I did not expect a breach to be this big, but I’m not surprised they got hacked because they don’t take security seriously,” the source told me. “You can see in the files how much they royally fucked up.”

    For example, the source noted, none of the sensitive files in the data dump, from employees passports to list of customers, appear to be encrypted.

    “Nobody noticed that someone stole a terabyte of data? You gotta be a fuckwad,” the source said. “It means nobody was taking care of security.”]

    At one time the AFP used Hacking Team software, tho its possible they don’t anymore.

    Maybe because of this:

    [The company, in fact, has “a backdoor” into every customer’s software, giving it ability to suspend it or shut it down—something that even customers aren’t told about.

    To make matters worse, every copy of Hacking Team’s Galileo software is watermarked, according to the source, which means Hacking Team, and now everyone with access to this data dump, can find out who operates it and who they’re targeting with it

    “With access to this data it is possible to link a certain backdoor to a specific customer. Also there appears to be a backdoor in the way the anonymization proxies are managed that allows Hacking Team to shut them off independently from the customer and to retrieve the final IP address that they need to contact,” the source told Motherboard.]

  2. victoria

    [And no doubt Labor will bleed voters on the back of asylum seeker policy]

    I have no doubt of that. But the electoral cost will be far, far greater if it bleeds voters to the conservatives – which will happen in huge numbers if it adopts the fairy-dust policies of the Greens (a sort of ‘build it and they won’t come’ mentality).

  3. zoid

    [You should know better to not twist your excuses to support metadata or surveillance of ordinary citizens.]

    And you should know better than to try and link an event with something which has nothing to do with it.

  4. [Kieran Gilbert
    1h1 hour ago
    Kieran Gilbert ‏@Kieran_Gilbert
    PM “whatever happens I can give an absolute guarantee there’ll be more submarine jobs in South Australia
    ]

    Could anyone – even Liberal supporters – take a guarantee from this bloke seriously, after all his lies and broken promises over the last couple of years? He has made an art form out of it.

    All I can say to South Australians is, read the fine print. And even then don’t believe a word of it.

  5. [1291
    Boerwar]

    The fixed exchange rate system gives rise to chronic over-accumulation in some domains and chronic insolvency in others. ’twas ever thus in Europe.

    We can see that 50 years of economic expansion in the post-war period has been replaced by a pattern of permanent economic repression in a majority of the Euro-zone economies. This reflects the operation of the trade (mercantile) system, by which the demand (savings) of the dependent economies manifests as production (and reserve accumulation) in the core economies. In less than a decade, 50 years of prosperity has been turned into chronic contraction.

    The economies that lie outside the Euro-zone have managed to avoid perpetual contraction (fiscal distress, unemployment, perennial deflation). Those economies that lies inside the system are trapped.

    This is plain as day.

  6. TPOF

    All well and good but when do principles count?

    Labor would win a debate based around these provisions. No one wants children abused. Not even Murdoch can spin that into a win for the LNP.

    This is the whole point of the secrecy laws. Abbott knows even his base cannot accept government sanctioned child abuserape and all the other allegations.

    Labor is only doing me too because they have been wedged. Instead of standing up for what is right as Labor has done with the Child Abuse Royal Commission. Not losing any votes from that.

  7. victoria @1294

    I have no doubt that will be the case and if that is the way they want to go so be it.

    But overwhelminly voters support the AS policies of the coalition, even a majority of labor voters.

    So if swinging voters like the hard line on AS and prefer labor policies on Climate, health, education etc then I think labor needs to neutralise the AS issue and attract those voters on its core issues and strengths.

    The AS issue has been lost and both parties need to take blame but the reality is labor needs to neutralise the AS debate if it wants to get back into government and undo the mess the coalition is making.

    The only game in town is the 2PP on Election Day and purity will not win that.

    If losing a few votes on the left is offset by winning more in the centre swinging cohort then so be it.

    Cheers.

  8. [1300
    TPOF

    The bottom line is that if Greece defaults nobody sees their money again.]

    This is a misconception. If Greece re-bases its assets and liabilities in a new currency, the assets of creditors will be realised in that currency. They will not be “wiped out”, but they will be depreciated.

    The real issue in Europe is the concentration of impaired assets and liabilities in the public sector – that is, in the sector that is faced with chronic insolvency.

  9. We had a very vigorous discussion about asylum seeker policy at our last branch meeting. I don’t think anyone walked out of the meeting thinking badly of anyone else there, or of leaving the Party.

    What was recognised was that there are no perfect, ‘nice’ solutions, and that all of us involved in the discussion were basically well motivated and good hearted. Every person’s concerns were taken on board.

    I would hope that if our small branch can conduct a discussion on such difficult ground with good will and mutual respect, that National Conference – also made up of like minded, well intentioned people – will be able to handle the debate similarly.

  10. Doyley

    Agreed. I actually blame all parties including the Greens on the pathetic state of affairs re asylum seeker policy

  11. [1308
    guytaur

    Labor would win a debate based around these provisions. No one wants children abused. Not even Murdoch can spin that into a win for the LNP.]

    Sadly, this is wrong. Abbott has made a political virtue out of cruelty. Refugees – man, woman and child – are held in conspicuously depraved conditions so that we may marvel at Abbott’s incomparable toughness.

  12. Guytaur,

    Last night Richard Marles made the point that a multi party Senate committee chaired by Sarah Hanson Young .determined that doctors and others were covered by whistleblower provisions under the Border Protection legislation.

    There was no dissenting report but a bipartisan report determining that to be the case.

    Marles put that to the greens senator last night and she did not argue against what he said.

    How do you reply to that fact ?

    Cheers.

  13. briefly

    That only works because of secrecy. Look at reaction to the Triggs report on children.

    There is a reason the government wants the secrecy and it has nothing to do with national security or privacy

  14. According to the Oz

    [Captain Dragan Vasiljkovic could be on plane out of Sydney to be extradited to Croatia as early as this afternoon]

    Taken 10 years

  15. 1320
    guytaur

    The secrecy stuff works two ways. The Government is spared inspection. The public is spared knowledge.

  16. [There is a reason the government wants the secrecy and it has nothing to do with national security or privacy]

    Yep simple really. Aussies just want the boats stopped and prefer if pesky social-conscience groups don’t tell them what the government is doing to achieve that.

  17. [Kieran Gilbert ‏@Kieran_Gilbert
    PM “whatever happens I can give an absolute guarantee there’ll be more submarine jobs in South Australia]
    Thank you Mr Abbott. Now define to us “compared to what”?

  18. Doyley

    Its simple I am listening to groups like the Teachers Union not politicians on this.

    They have a vested interest in transparency to stay out of jail. The open letter they sent around was such a figment of my imagination wasn’t it

  19. Victoria,

    Yes, no one can hold their heads high on the AS debate in this country. Not even the greens who are deep in the mud along with the coalition and labor.

  20. Bernard Keane retweeted
    angus grigg ‏@AngusGrigg 15m15 minutes ago

    This is new – China articles no longer load on AFR website without a VPN.

  21. [1323
    davidwh

    There is a reason the government wants the secrecy and it has nothing to do with national security or privacy

    Yep simple really. Aussies just want the boats stopped and prefer if pesky social-conscience groups don’t tell them what the government is doing to achieve that.]

    Exactly. To know of a wrong and to ignore it creates complicity. In the absence of knowledge, the most we can be accused of is a lack of curiosity (rather than a lack of shame)…which, going by the usual standards, is much to be preferred…

  22. Guytaur,

    So you are saying the greens are complicit in holding back the truth on the whistleblower provisions under the Border Protection legislation ?

  23. It seems to me that Abbott has wedged himself very badly on the subs issue. It became clear months ago that he has made some kind of promise to the Japanese that they will be built over there – probably as a sweetener to get the free trade agreement through – and now he is facing an electoral storm in SA as a result.

    With the popular Xenophon campaigning against the government in the SA marginals on the issue it could prove to be a very costly mistake – especially is someone like Pyne ends up going down the gurgler.

  24. Doyley

    Way to put words in someones mouth. I never said any such thing. An interesting way you twist things to suit your agenda.

    This is about Labor not the Greens. What is Labor doing or not doing.

    Attacking the Greens does nothing not one jot to explain what Labor is doing.

    Btw your accusation flies in the face of years of evidence to the contrary

  25. Doyley

    Yep all political parties bear responsibility for the atrocious state of affairs re asylum seeker policy.

    The Greens on the left. Coalition on the right, and Labor stupidly vying for the middle. Big fat fail. Now they are all in sewer together

  26. [Michelle Grattan ‏@michellegrattan · 21 minutes ago
    malcolm must be close to explosion point – or shd be]

    Grattan making the common mistake of assuming Talcolm has a spine.

  27. Darn

    Abbott is working behind the scenes to somehow make the subs issue a win win for all. Good luck with that I say. You only have to look at the latest SA state newspoll to see how the voters are thinking

  28. “@ABCNews24: .@timsout: Contrary to what the likes of Dawn Fraser might say, most Australians don’t tell migrants to go back where they came from”

  29. [The media in Australia cannot seem to make the distinction between whether they are in the business of reporting news or manufacturing propaganda.]

    Oh they know what business they’re in, they just don’t like confirming it in public.

  30. guytaur

    Speaking of Dawn Fraser. For those who missed what she said, will give everyone an idea where the attitude in this country is headed

  31. “@AusHumanRights: “Citizenship is the keystone of our national unity, the formal statement of our national identity” says @timsout @PressClubAust”

  32. Victoria

    [ The Greens on the left. Coalition on the right, and Labor stupidly vying for the middle. Big fat fail. Now they are all in sewer together ]

    Well put. All parties are to blame – the Coalition has a policy that is indefensible, and the Greens have a policy that is unimplementable. Labor tries to steer the middle ground, but just ends up looking wishy-washy. Labor need to identify exactly where they stand, and then be prepared to defend their position.

  33. “We must be cautious about making any dramatic changes to our citizenship regime” says @timsout @PressClubAust http://t.co/d3D7UJ1xNw

    Australia is adopting a Tsarist approach to human rights – that is, erasing them as fast as possible.

    Abbott has appointed one of his own, Tim Wilson, to help carry this out. Wilson has the laconic title of Human Rights Commissioner. He is actually the Human Rights De-Commissioner.

  34. @AusHumanRights: “I hold serious concerns about a deterioration of community harmony…that warrants close attention from governments and leaders.” @timsout

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