Two new polls, including the first Newspoll conducted under the wing of Galaxy, show no signs of change in the relative standings of the two major parties, and record both Tony Abbott and Bill Shorten sinking on personal approval.
The latest monthly Ipsos poll for the Fairfax papers also adds to the weight of surging support for the Greens, but is otherwise largely unchanged on last time. Both major parties are down on the primary vote – Labor by two points to 35%, and the Coalition by one to 39% – making room for a two point increase for the Greens to 16%. Labor’s two-party preferred support is at 53% on both respondent-allocated and previous election measures, respectively amounting to a one-point drop and no change. Both leaders have taken a hit on personal approval, with Tony Abbott down four points on approval to 36% and up five on disapproval to 59%, while Bill Shorten is down six to 35% and up eight to 55%. Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister has nonetheless widened from 42-41 to 43-39. The poll was conducted from Thursday to Saturday from a sample of 1402.
The Newspoll result for The Australian has Labor leading 52-48, from primary votes of 40% for the Coalition, 37% for Labor and 13% for the Greens. Tony Abbott’s personal ratings of 33% approval and 60% disapproval are the worst he has recorded from any pollster in about two months, while Bill Shorten’s respective figures of 28% and 54% slightly shade the last Newspoll as his worst numbers ever. The two are level on preferred prime minister at 39% apiece. Given that this is the result of an entirely new methodology, combining automated phone and internet polling with a sample of 1631 (compared with the old Newspoll’s interviewer-administered landline phone polling and samples of around 1150), comparing it with previous results is more than usually unilluminating.
[Michelle Grattan @michellegrattan · 21 minutes ago
malcolm must be close to explosion point – or shd be]
After all, he’s the ABC Minister, set up the enquiry.
lizzie @ 1236 – that article made me spew. I posted a link last night under the title “puke me a rier”.
Mandela moment… the only Mandela moment Abbott deserves is to be locked up for 27 years.
@lizzie/1251
He also set up the Fraudband enquiry/reviews.
Don’t write a enquiry unless you know the results already!
lizzie
Me thinks Abbott is deliberately egging on Turnbull.
shea @ 1246
I checked out the reply and Elder’s response on Elder’s site. Below I quote the two and leave people to make up their own minds. However, I should note that I later said that I used the wrong word in describing the ‘Thomas’ article as satire. Rather it was written in tongue in cheek.
Jason Murphy’s comment:
[Hi, thanks for reading my post and linking to it.
I’d like a right of reply.
1. I’m not a press gallery journo and never was. Some people might have got the opposite impression from your post. I was a full-time journalist from age 29-32, with the AFR, and then the fairfax business sections. Now I write for Crikey, The New Daily, etc but mainly do other non-journalism things.
2. My piece, in a rather less sweary way than yours, was an attack on the media for being self-indulgent. All the fuck-yous you included made it a bit hard to follow, but I’m pretty sure yours is too? Are we not in furious agreement?
Yours,
Jason (Thomas the Think Engine) Murphy]
Elder’s reply:
[1. Your background or current activities don’t matter.
2. You were wrong to make excuses for the dire state of journalistic practice when it comes to politics. Any issues you might have with self-indulgence was buried with pissant excuses about deadlines, and a fundamental misunderstanding of how competition should create divergence rather than uniformity. Those two issues have been covered extensively in this blog for nine years now.
We are not in agreement that one must simply make excuses for bad journalism and accept the way it is and why it’s like that.
I am frankly amazed that bad language gives you the vapours. Are you sure you spent any time in an actual newsroom? Do such places not resound with blue language?
Journalism fails when it excuses the inexcusable, in politics and in journalism itself. Never defend lazy, dumb journalism. Never lump it in with the good stuff, which takes guts and brains (and isn’t put off by uncouth expression). That was your mistake, and everyone who does it will get the same treatment. I’ve gone hard after bigger targets than you. Can’t ask for fairer than that.]
Clearly that exchange re-affirmed your view. It also re-affirmed my view. The world would be a terrible place if we all saw things the same way.
On the topic of shoving chooks out of a shed…
Once upon a time, last century, we were in a country house with a country chook shed. We obtained a dozen ex-battery hens through a certain rural set of arrangements.
These things were bred to lay. And boy, did they lay!
But they would not get out of the shed and into the paddock.
They huddled together in a corner of the shed.
When we tried to chase them out they would circle inside the shed and head back to the corner.
If we carried them out, they would run back in.
We gave up trying to force them to get out.
Eventually they de-institutionalised themselves and ventured forth.
Then one day a hawk came along and killed one of them.
The survivors ran back into the shed.
Freedom has its costs as well as its benefits.
jules
I don’t post in the evenings, so I missed it. Abbott professing ‘lurve’ is certainly spew-worthy.
TPOF
[And far more threatening than the one man Lindt cafe siege]
Certainly was. People living in London were used to the IRA targeting the Govt rather than the general public.
Most people got a lot more cautious about travel on public transport – I know I did.
[Replacing the ‘can you shove a chook out of a shed’ question of the day – do you “advertise” a show by going on it, or by nor going on it?]
Why go on when the host fills the position that you would have anyway? And the public saves on the travel allowance!
Mr Abbott, noticing that there will be a wipe-out of Federal Liberals in South Australia, today solemnly promised that there will be more submarine jobs in South Australia, come what may.
The Ignoranti who infest journalistic ranks forebore from asking:
1. Why would anyone believe your promises?
2. How many submarine jobs are there in South Australia NOW?
3. Does this mean you have given Abe an undertaking in relation to the submarine purchase?
Boerwar
Buying exhausted battery hens seems to be the fashion at present. You’re right, the poor things are as traumatised as asylum seekers in detention.
WeWantPaul
Different Adam.
zoid
[Which is until the countries involve tighten up security laws, which is what China, US, Australia, UK are doing now.]
Still won’t stop companies being hacked, because that’s not what security laws or their enforcers are interested in.
It’s like expecting speed cameras to stop all car accidents. It’s not what they’re for, and it doesn’t matter how you use them, they simply can’t do it.
Boerwar
Surely you believe our dear leader
[Kieran Gilbert
1h1 hour ago
Kieran Gilbert @Kieran_Gilbert
PM “whatever happens I can give an absolute guarantee there’ll be more submarine jobs in South Australia]
Boerwar,
The reality of things atm within labor is that no consensus has yet been reached with regard to turn back.
The left of the party cannot even reach agreement. There is a tonne of work being done behind the scenes to reach a acceptable position
I believe the party will accept turn backs but there will be compromise and plenty of give and take.
Independent oversight of Manus and Nauru with regular reporting on conditions and incidents within the centres to be made public are just two.
We can sit back and demand labor do this and that now but the reality is National Conference is the main game. All sides of labor realise the significance of the final party position on AS policy and Marles or anyone else rushing out now just to meet the agenda of others is pointless and could well destroy consensus within the party.
National Conference is only weeks away. The MSM and commentators can stick their demands up their arse. Labor will respond when it is ready and that will be at National Conference.
Cheers.
@zoomster/1263
Security laws are there to tighten restrictions,
Speed cameras are there (like CCTV) to mitigate or slow down the number of accidents happening in areas, it’s also there to identify people who cause them.
Using this type of analogy is incorrect, Zoomster.
You should know better to not twist your excuses to support metadata or surveillance of ordinary citizens.
[ Kieran Gilbert @Kieran_Gilbert
PM “whatever happens I can give an absolute guarantee there’ll be more submarine jobs in South Australia ]
Painting and sweeping?
Thats even before examining abbotts *guarantees*!
[Surely you believe our dear leader]
A man as trustworthy as the day is long (in midwinter at the north pole)
Good Morning
Ctar
Thanks for that.
On Ray Martin doing the review. Those remembering Martin for his tabloid television are forgetting he know true political and unbiased reporting from his This Day Tonight days.
I should have added to my post that the direction labor is taking atm re its non commitement to turn backs does not seem to be doing it too much harm.
Cheers.
TPOF
I saw the tony Jones Show last night for the first time for at least 18 months.
Not informative.
[Doyley
Posted Tuesday, July 7, 2015 at 11:24 am | Permalink
Boerwar,
The reality of things atm within labor is that no consensus has yet been reached with regard to turn back.]
Then Marles should have said so. This would have had the benefit of being a credible answer.
The evasive ducking and weaving is so destructive of his (and Labor’s) credibility.
The Greensbots are at it as well. But no-one notices. For example, how many asylum seekers are the Greens proposing to fly into Australia per year?
They will not say.
An astute journalist would have asked whether Mr Abbott was talking about construction or maintenance submarine jobs and how many of each.
But Mr Abbott does not do astute journalists and astute journalists do not do Mr Abbott.
The Fourth Estate is a debacle.
Doyley
Last nights QandA was a taster of how Labor is being harmed. This is why the Greens are jumping on it.
A lot of Labor people are not happy with supporting laws that jail doctors for two years for reporting abuse.
Do not be fooled so are a lot of Liberal people.
Marles was not convincing on this. Defending legislation passed is not an excuse for putting children in harms way.
As for the Abbott will jump all over this and say Labor is soft of course he will. All Labor has to do is say we are tough on child abuse in reply.
Abbott has a less than stellar record in this area.
Apparently you can get a cheap holiday in Greece ATM.
All you need to do is turn up with lots of cash in your pockets and not get robbed while you spend the ready.
The British Government is making preparations for emergency airlifts of euros to stranded British travellers.
[ In China, Hairdresser Bull Call Goes Horribly Wrong, Broker IPO Crashes 31%
Even after the peak, new investors opened millions of brokerage accounts so they could play the rally. Sophie Wang, a 32-year-old college art teacher in Nanjing, said in a recent interview that she opened her first stock trading account two weeks ago and bought some shares on “the advice of my hairdresser.”
Ms. Wang said her holdings are down 32%. “I don’t really follow news on stocks that closely. My hairdresser said it was still a bull market and I needed to get in,” she said.
She said she didn’t know what to do when the market started falling and she is still holding her shares.]
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-07-06/china-hairdresser-bull-call-goes-horribly-wrong-broker-ipo-crashes-31
…
This one from back in April –
[When Your Banana-Guy Starts Trading Stocks, You Know It’s Over]
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-24/when-your-banana-guy-starts-trading-stocks-you-know-its-over
[guytaur
Posted Tuesday, July 7, 2015 at 11:34 am | Permalink
Doyley
Last nights QandA was a taster of how Labor is being harmed. This is why the Greens are jumping on it.
A lot of Labor people are not happy with supporting laws that jail doctors for two years for reporting abuse.]
This is a typical Greensbot misrepresentation of the Act.
bw
The GreeceGreen Spambot
bw
Yeah the AMA other doctors nurses teachers unions etc are so Green party politicians
dave
*laughs*
Only the other day Kohler did an article on the same. His line started with… ‘The bellhops are in…’
[guytaur
Posted Tuesday, July 7, 2015 at 11:39 am | Permalink
bw
Yeah the AMA other doctors nurses teachers unions etc are so Green party politicians]
I know that you Greensbots are doing the wedge here but there is a fact that you need to be absolutely certain about before you misrepresent the situation again.
The fact has to do with any subordinate relationships of the Act to other acts.
In this case, the issue is the relationship between whistle-blower legislation and the Act.
But my guess is that being a typical Greensbot, you are more interested in wedging than you are in being accountable to reality.
[ Boerwar
Posted Tuesday, July 7, 2015 at 11:32 am | Permalink
An astute journalist would have asked whether Mr Abbott was talking about construction or maintenance submarine jobs and how many of each.
But Mr Abbott does not do astute journalists and astute journalists do not do Mr Abbott.
The Fourth Estate is a debacle.
]
The media in Australia cannot seem to make the distinction between whether they are in the business of reporting news or manufacturing propaganda.
dave
I note that the Chinese fundies have been instructed to be fully open to the stock market in terms of value for money… as long as they restrict their market moves to purchases…
What could possibly go wrong?
Doyley @ 1265 and BW
The challenge for Labor is to meet community sentiment which, like it or not, is grave disquiet at self-selecting unauthorised boat arrivals while addressing the concerns of those, like Melissa Parke, with overriding humanitarian concerns. It also knows that the best way – the only way – to deter boat arrivals is to make coming here that way less attractive than other options, which include staying where they are or going somewhere else. It’s problem is that it will never be able to out-brutalise this government we have now.
The upside from an electoral perspective is that this is not necessarily the killer issue the Coalition would like it to be. To the extent that it is under control (not necessarily stopped) there will be a growth in disquiet regarding the methods used to ‘stop the boats’. Indeed, the whole modus operandi of the Coalition during the last government was to maximise the chaos for the Labor Government. This was done cruelly and cynically without any humanitarian regard whatsoever for the asylum seekers.
Where all of this is leading to is that the significance of boat arrivals as an electoral issue will reduce substantially if Labor is seen to be endorsing the objectives of the Government without explicitly endorsing all the methods – especially since they don’t know what those methods are. This was the challenge to Richard Marles last night and, while it was a tough gig because of Tony Jones’s conduct, it could have been addressed by taking Jones on, given that Jones was so patently and desperately trying to get his gotcha headline. A first-class political mind would have managed that. Marles didn’t.
For the longer term, Labor will have to deal with whatever comes out of National Conference and it cannot really pre-empt that other than to stick to repeating the objective – which has been the same for three decades for all parties that actually had to administer asylum seeker policy instead of pontificating from the sidelines. Marles did that reasonably well before being assaulted by Tony Headline-seeker Jones.
If it manages that well enough asylum seekers will not be a killer issue at the next election. Even if there is a new flow of asylum seekers before then, that will reflect as badly on Coalition claims to have ‘stopped the boats’ as it will on Labor’s less brutal (and thus ‘weaker’) policy to achieve the same ends.
BW – I wonder if the comrades are going to spend another lazy $20 Billion today.
http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2015/07/ez-gives-greece-one-last-chance-lol/
[If Greece exits and defaults big there will be fiscal chaos in Europe. The ECB can contain some of it (so long as it is bailed out!) but you just don’t where the next mole will pop up.
What we do know is one of the two biggest currencies in the world suddenly has a large fissure running right through the middle of its institutional structure and nobody knows how it will be closed.]
The European monetary order is busted….kaput….cactus. It should be wound up.
g
By the way, since you have opted to discuss asylum seeker issues, just how many asylum seekers do the Greensbots propose to fly into Australia each year?
Ten thousand?
One hundred thousand?
A million?
Don’t know and don’t care because the Greensbots only do wedges and never do reality?
The ASX has certainly recovered from it’s Greekitis today.
[dave
Posted Tuesday, July 7, 2015 at 11:44 am | Permalink
BW – I wonder if the comrades are going to spend another lazy $20 Billion today.]
In one of those curious convergences that occur from time to time – whatever it takes!
bw
Tell your tripe to the AMA etc.
briefly
Nah.
The three hundred billion was on the books at a notional 2.5% per annum, and was pretty well written off anyway.
The Eurozone will the Greeks the Big A and print another three hundred million if required.
Problem fixed.
Tsipras and Varoufakis genuinely came in with a view that the could do Blackmail Round Two on the bailout.
Varoufakis complained that the Germans were treating the Greeks like ‘grasshoppers’.
Well, grasshoppers have a good time in Summer and freeze their arses off in Winter.
Next, please.
guytaur @ 1274
[Last nights QandA was a taster of how Labor is being harmed. This is why the Greens are jumping on it.]
Labor will never beat the Greens on this issue in the eyes of those who believe that deterring unauthorised boat arrivals is a bad policy. Because Labor will never, ever adopt that policy, which has been gold standard for the Greens. So trying to save votes from the Greens while still cleaving to the position favoured by the vast majority of Australian voters (like it or not) would be like wedging yourself so bad the undies don’t stop till they reach the chin.
Labor would rather bleed a hundred votes to the Greens, most of which will come back to Labor as the lesser of two evils in single electorate preference vote, than lose an equivalent thousand votes to the Liberals that will never be seen again.
@PSyvret: Brisbane 4BC listeners react to Alan Jones program by changing stations http://t.co/oWOfOUjTmO @couriermail
Doyley
Apparently some Labor supporters are now switching their allegiance to the Greens in light of supporting the fibs on asylum seeker policy.
The turning point for Greece may not have been the referendum but the resignation of that crazy person they appointed Finance Minister. I think most of Europe breathed a sigh of relief when he turfed himself.
TPOF
And no doubt Labor will bleed voters on the back of asylum seeker policy. Yet I personally dont know one that will. Most of the feedback is what I have gleaned from twitter
[ guytaur
Posted Tuesday, July 7, 2015 at 11:47 am | Permalink
bw
Tell your tripe to the AMA etc.]
It may well be that the AMA haven’t read the legislation too carefully.
If the AMA has just been listening to the Greensbots they will have been misled… as was clear when the unctious and smarmy Ms Waters got herself wedged on the topic on Q&A last night.
It turns out that Marles was the only person on the panel who actually KNEW what was in the Act.
Everyone else, including Waters and Sheridan, were bullshitting on the topic.
[davidwh
Posted Tuesday, July 7, 2015 at 11:50 am | Permalink
The turning point for Greece may not have been the referendum but the resignation of that crazy person they appointed Finance Minister. I think most of Europe breathed a sigh of relief when he turfed himself.]
He was sacked.
While we are on the topic of Greensbots/chooks, it has become really clear that when a Nationals politician starts talking about chooks, they tend to know what they are talking about.
First Joh and now Barnaby.
[The turning point for Greece may not have been the referendum but the resignation of that crazy person they appointed Finance Minister. I think most of Europe breathed a sigh of relief when he turfed himself.]
It could well have been both in a situation where all the parties have to find a solution that saves face and money.
The bottom line is that if Greece defaults nobody sees their money again. Unlike a domestic bankruptcy, it is not possible to liquidate all of Greece land and property and then pay out the creditors. It is not leaving the Euro that is problematic for Europe but the actual effect of default -which is de facto debt forgiveness on a grand scale.
That said, unless and until Greece decides to actually run itself like a first world country – which is to collect an appropriate amount of revenue from those best able to pay and restrict the national running costs to the revenue collected – it will continue to be a third world country. Whether in the Eurozone or, indeed, a member of the EU, or not.