Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor

Essential Research again records no change in voting intention, but finds trust in the news media to have fallen since November.

The fortnightly rolling average from Essential Research has Labor leading 52-48 for the seventh successive week, with the primary votes showing the Coalition down a point to 41% and Labor, the Greens and Palmer United steady on 39%, 10% and 1%. Other findings:

• An occasional question on “trust in media” records lower results across the board since November, with the most trusted outlets down the most. The ABC is down six points for television to 63% and four for radio to 58%, “local newspapers” are down three to 50%, and “daily newspapers” are down five to 45%. Commercial television and radio are stable, at a respective 46% and 44% for news and current affairs and 34% for talkback.

• Opponents of same-sex marriage are found to be more likely to hold their views “very strongly”, at 46% compared with 37% for supporters. However, the latter outnumber the former 59% to 28%. Fifty-eight per cent support a conscience vote in parliament, with only 19% believing it should be set by party policy (though presumably respondents would say this about all manner of things).

• Fixty-six per cent of respondents disapproval of people smugglers being paid to take asylum seekers back to Indonesia, but a quite substantial 29% approve.

• Presented with a list of infrastructure items their state might invest in, respondents overwhelmingly favoured hospitals and health centres (74%) over all options.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

890 comments on “Essential Research: 52-48 to Labor”

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  1. @TBA/763

    Because you are a fool, the Australian flag was built upon migrating convicts from the British, so you are betraying the flag.

  2. [713

    If the media will castigate you no matter what you do, you may as well do what is right.]

    No. You compromise to get enough votes. That’s democracy and politics, and it gets pretty ugly sometimes.

  3. Foreign Affairs Minister Julie Bishop is again facing questions over delays in correcting the parliamentary record regarding correspondence from the man at the centre of the Martin Place siege, Man Haron Monis.

    Labor says the government waited at least three days to inform the Parliament of the truth about botched handling of the correspondence in a deliberate attempt to avoid further scrutiny.

  4. pedant:

    In addition to Abbott’s overheated rhetoric on terrorism I’m also thinking his nudge-nudge, wink-wink early election comments are also about shoring up his leadership.

    Guess we’ll see how things go from here, but he is very far from the definition of a national leader.

  5. [No. You compromise to get enough votes. That’s democracy and politics, and it gets pretty ugly sometimes.]

    I think he had to go and do his homework.

  6. [@abcnews: Former #Greens leader @ChristineMilne vows to be “more dangerous than ever” in last Senate speech ]

    Intriguing. At best her Senate speeches cause a mass exodus from the chamber. Does this mean she’s intending to me even more evacuation-worthy?

  7. WWP

    The citizenship legislation is a dogs breakfast. As is proven by the fact you are arguing about cleaners.

    I think the High Court will strike the automatic part down and courts will have to come back into it. When that happens common sense will reappear.

  8. If Labor had held up the emergency legislation I think Abbott would have gone to town on it.
    Just because you negotiate with him and offer some reasonable trade offs , he would I have turned around, briefed the Telegraph that Labor could not be trusted, that Labor wanted all of the refugees to come to Australia.
    He would have made noises about booking flights and accommodation to bring them here from the offshore detention centres, perhaps to your suburb.
    I don’t think I am exaggerating.

  9. JR

    Of course he would. However even the Telegraph would find it hard to argue about demanding children be protected from abuse.

  10. MTBW
    Posted Wednesday, June 24, 2015 at 4:47 pm | PERMALINK

    I have never taken to Shorten for him it is all about Bill/
    ————————ego is one thing … usualy something else going on … but bill is a national tragedy, he believes mainly in his own mediocrity …. we are all lowering the bar

  11. All these rumours about early elections seem rather strange. As Nick Xenophon pointed out at the Press Club today, the triggers that are currently in place wouldn’t exactly set the world on fire. It looks unlikely that there will be any major issues on which the ALP can be wedged badly. And even a slightly early call seems to have done Campbell Newman a bit of damage.

    I would have thought that the government would want to put as much time and space between the 2014 budget and the next election as humanly possible. It’s clearly not been forgotten by a lot of voters, and the ALP could have a field day campaigning on the danger that a re-elected coalition dog would want to return to its vomit. (There’s also the small matter of the Commission of Audit report, which contained many time bomb recommendations which, as far as I know, have not yet been formally and publicly rejected by the government.)

    And I notice Tanya Plibersek has listed some of Mr Abbott’s bigger lies on Facebook, but then made the rather gentle comment that “we know that you cannot take this Prime Minister at his word”. Why not just call him a liar? The ALP should be talking about his “lies” day in and day out, and in every ad in the next campaign.
    With his record, there’s no way he could successfully sue for defamation.

  12. NEVER let abbott wedge or bully- on nothing.

    always play the game – reverse wedge …. set up to terms of compromise

    bills not quick enough and its quick or ….

  13. Problem is Abbott would verbal Labor, and say what ever he liked.

    However having said that I liked the speech, I agree Labor should not be in this position at all.
    The current secretive system, even the system planed by the A LP when in government to set this up was wrong.
    All I am saying is that given the current situation Labor (sadly) did the best thing, and while doing that Shorten delivered a very good speech.

  14. Sad, but the reality is that the ALP will go along with the legislative changes to allow the funding of offshore detention because its a policy they want to be able to use, AND this change seems a fundamental underpinning for providing any funding for any kind of regional processing solution that would replace the current regime.

    They need to get into Govt before they can do anything about the current ongoing abuse in those centers and with the way the lying toerags in Govt have entwined and entangled the AS / terrorism issues they dont want to give the Govt free kicks on this.

  15. JR

    I disagree. Labor did not do what is best. Too scared of Abbott as your reply to me indicates.
    Fight Abbott don’t cave.

    Labor did best in polls when fighting not caving,

  16. confessions @ 808: I think the ALP is probably quite happy to encourage some of the early election speculation, first to gee up their own troops and secondly because if it all comes to naught, they can push the line that Mr Abbott wanted to have an election but wimped out at the last minute.

    Incidentally, it’s quite striking that at this stage of things the government has almost nothing lined up by way of important bills blocked by the Senate which could potentially be passed at a joint sitting after a double dissolution. Partly this is because the stuff blocked by the Senate by and large is something the government wouldn’t want to be campaigning on. But the Whitlam government, whatever its faults, was assiduous at having Bills twice rejected and ready for joint sitting passage.

    It’s just another example of how slapdash this lot are on basic machinery of government matters.

  17. mb @ 782 in a court they probably wouldn’t be. However that thing that passed today doesn’t seem to make allowance for a court testing whether anyone, cleaner or not, deserves the loss of citizenship. It seems to happen by magic or osmosis or something that is not really defined.

  18. [ All I am saying is they had a lever. ]

    Not a very good one.

    [ Abbott was desperate. ]

    Not at all. win Win for him.

    ALP roll over and support the change and Abbott has a quiet win.

    ALP oppose, Abbott gets a 10 flag presser in a few weeks if the HC rules against him, and the countries RWNJ’s line up with hysterics just in time for an early election.

  19. [I disagree. Labor did not do what is best. Too scared of Abbott as your reply to me indicates.
    Fight Abbott don’t cave.

    Labor did best in polls when fighting not caving,]
    This assumes Labor believes other than their present policy. How absurd.

  20. “@Pollytics: The ALP are being completely played on terrorism and national security, and they don’t have the faintest idea what to do.”

  21. [ Why do lefties hate Australian flags? ]
    What if Lefties suddenly started using 40 flags at press conferences eh mate that’d stuff ya what would you say then

  22. pedant:

    Plus the govt have given up talking about their budget. There is no consistent message to voters about anything other than terrorism this and terrorism that.

    I’m not sure this daily campaigning by Abbott is productive.

  23. Mexican

    I know many cleaners who have university degrees (including PhDs) and are extremely smart.

    However that is not the point. If you are a subcontracting cleaner at the bottom of the long line of contractors you will ONLY know the name of your immediate cleaning contracting company. You will NOT know who it is who pays the bill and who is the real client.

    Sure you will see the logo on the office you clean but that is about as much as you know. You would not know if they are a church or a terrorist front.

  24. DTT Snow

    We are not excalty disagreeing, which is why I am saying how would anyone seriously remove the citizenship of a cleaner who has been hired by a third party to clean the office.

  25. Jules

    Absolutely right. If my mythical cleaning subcontractor went to a court, then he would have nothing to fear. However if he was from the same ethnic community and had family connections, many might say Ha Ha. Of course he knows who the business is and who he is working for. He could find himself de-citizenised simply for taking a job.

  26. guytaur #798
    I don’t think Labor could’ve used that lever against Abbott even if they really wanted to.

    To the best of my knowledge, the loophole in the Migration Act was referring to the power of the Federal Government to fund and have jurisdiction over offshore detention centers in Nauru and Papua New Guinea.

    The problem with that is, if had Labor not supported these amendments; then it could have been almost impossible for the government to fund those offshore detention centers; and the responsibility of maintain them would have fallen to Nauru and PNG, which could potentially putting thousands of lives at even greater risk then when they inside the detention centers.

    Now, that may not have been part of Labor’s reasons for agreeing to close this loophole at “one minute to midnight”; but potentially putting thousands of lives at risk in the short term, in the hope of wedging the Abbott Government into supporting legislation that guarantees more humane treatment for those same lives at risk in the long term, is an unimaginable and unknowable gamble for any political party to take.

    Whether if that was the right course of action for Labor take; I have no simple answers.

  27. DTT

    Then clearly the law needs to be better drafted or allowed to be tested by the courts but as Guytaur points out we are talking about Tony and Dutton

  28. Mill

    Its a lever all right. Just like a strike is a lever. Or as Frank Herbert showed in Dune the real power is the person who has the ability to kill it. Thats leverage.

  29. MB

    The obvious scenario might be a person who had got into a bit of trouble when young,dis a bit of time for theft or some such and perhaps was not the brightest of the family. However families and communities being actually decent and caring, he is found a job in one of many related family companies. These businesses and some members of them may well have links to suspect organisations, but the cleaner is not included in any plans.

    However some twat may well make assumptions about the person, based on previous record and family connections.

  30. Paapstef

    Actually I think that lots and lots of flags is exactly what Shorten should do.

    Ideally always have one more flag and two more meal wearers than Abbott. Negate it as a strategy

  31. guytaur #838
    Correct. Proposing to withhold support for closing the loophole is definitely leverage. No doubt about it.

    The question I am asking though is; would it be worth using leverage against Abbott in order to guarantee a compromise over those asylum seekers, when those same asylum seekers could be paced in utter anarchy for an unknown amount of time until the Abbott Government finally caves in?

    And given what we know about the Abbott Government thus far, its unlikely for it to quickly cave into a demand from Labor, let alone for the Government to support asylum seekers more humane treatment.

  32. Mill

    Yes. Labor has already stated its position about secrecy and reported abuse at detention centres. Nothing to lose for standing up for that.

    Its a vote winner not a loser because you are saying yes but only if we do something about this.

  33. [ And given what we know about the Abbott Government thus far, its unlikely for it to quickly cave into a demand from Labor, ]

    They wouldn’t cave at all. Miss out on Chaos, Confusion and RWNJobbies of all kinds in all media running an utterly hysterical campaign for them??

    [ let alone for the Government to support asylum seekers more humane treatment. ]

    Just wont happen under this lot. There is a chance it will under the ALP, IF when they get into Govt they can tell the media to just fwark off and report on the issues, rather than supporting the Libs at all costs.

  34. MB

    With respect, you are saying stuff that is so misleading and wrong the further this discussion goes

    “The way you describe cleaners is as thou they are mindless sheep who have no reading ability, this is just rubbish, I know several cleaners who can speak and read English.

    A cleaner who has been hired from a third party should have nothing to worry about.”

    Some cleaning jobs are very unpleasant. NESB people and less qualified people are often forced to take unpleasant jobs. No-one said cleaners sre mindless sheep. Your point is so non sequitur.

    As to the 3rd party hired person, any judgement about who his boss is will be irrelevant if the likes of Potatohead want to get him, especially if as Dan Tehan an Abbotteer just said on Lateline, natural justice will not be applied. Our cleaner won’t even have access as to who alleged what about him.

    Please spend a bit of time reading the complete history of the Haneef matter. Then reread what you have written tonight.

    Terrorism and the application of dodgy laws in a dodgy manner is the forte of the Conservos …. They reap many gullible votes from it ……. maybe they bought yours? Ruddock and Andrews who played VIP roles in Haneef are still in this Cabinet

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