Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A new Galaxy poll finds the Abbott government rallying in Queensland, and records next to nothing left of Palmer United support even in its home state.

Today’s Courier-Mail brings a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland, encompassing 800 respondents and presumably conducted over the past few days. The primary vote numbers are 44% for the Coalition, 36% for Labor, 10% for the Greens and 2% for Palmer United, compared with respective results at the 2013 election of 45.7%, 29.8%, 6.2% and 11.0%. This converts into a Coalition two-party lead of 51-49, a swing to Labor of 6% from the 2013 result.

A fair bit happening lately on the federal preselection front:

• Joanna Lindgren will fill the Queensland Senate vacancy created by Brett Mason’s appointment as ambassador to the Netherlands, after prevailing in a preselection ballot over seven rival candidates. Her win was achieved despite Tony Abbott, John Howard and Julie Bishop having backed Bill Glasson, an opthamologist, former Australian Medical Association president and twice-unsuccessful candidate for Griffith, firstly against Kevin Rudd in 2013 and again at the by-election held to replace him the following February. Lindgren has been described as a “project officer”, and is apparently the great-niece of former Liberal Senator Neville Bonner, Australia’s first indigenous parliamentarian.

• The Queensland ALP wrapped up preselection in nearly every seat that matters on Wednesday. Cameron Atfield of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the candidate for Forde in Brisbane’s outer south is Des Hardman, who made way for Peter Beattie’s unsuccessful bid for the seat in 2013. Laura Fraser Hardy, a lawyer, will make her second successive run against Liberal incumbent Ross Vasta in the bayside marginal seat of Bonner. The preselection of five out of Labor’s six lower house incumbents was also confirmed, including that of Wayne Swan in Lilley. The exception is Bernie Ripoll in Oxley, who will make way for Brisbane City Council opposition leader Milton Dick.

• A Liberal National Party preselection held this morning for Clive Palmer’s seat of Fairfax was won by Ted O’Brien, managing director of government relations firm Barton Deakin and the unsuccessful candidate in 2013. Others in the field were Peter Duffy, a construction manager; Don Jamieson, a banking manager; Chloe Kopilovic, a solicitor; Adrian McCallum, an engineering lecturer at the University of Sunshine Coast; and Mark Somlyay, an accountant and son of former member Alex Somlyay. Labor has preselected Scott Anderson, an IT consultant.

• Heath Aston of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that NSW Greens Senator Lee Rhiannon’s bid for another term is meeting resistance from no fewer than 16 rival preselection nominees. Among them are several colleagues of Rhiannon’s in the “hard left” faction, including Jim Casey, the state secretary of the Fire Brigade Employees Union, together with “James Ryan, Amanda Findley, Jane Oakley and Ben Hammond”. Also in the field are Cate Faerhrmann, who filled Rhiannon’s state upper house vacancy when she moved to the Senate in 2010, before abandoning it for an unsuccessful Senate bid in 2013; and Arthur Chesterfield-Evans, who held a state upper house seat for the Australian Democrats from 1998 to 2007.

• Sean Ford of the Burnie Advocate reports that Labor’s preselection candidates for the north-western Tasmanian seat of Braddon include Justine Keay, a Devonport alderman and electorate officer to Tasmanian Opposition Leader Bryan Green, and Themba Bulle, a Burnie general practitioner. The current Liberal member, Brett Whiteley, won the seat from Labor’s Sid Sidebottom in 2013.

• Labor’s candidate to run against Adam Bandt in Melbourne is Sophie Ismail, a Victorian Education Department lawyer and member of the Socialist Left faction.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,250 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. 98
    Socrates

    I agree. I have fairly low confidence in parliaments in general. They are very easily cowed. A popular vote would be irresistible.

  2. Briefly

    Yes, so for that reason a popular vote on marriage equality may now be the best policy for Labor. That way the far right in the party can oppose it, while the electorate can have its way, and Shorten may get some poll reward for letting people have their say. Good night all.

  3. 102

    There is something to be said for the idea of major conscience vote issues being decided by referenda because Parliament is mainly chosen on party grounds and conscience votes go on other lines.

    It is also practical for the reasons you describe. It could even be a way of attacking any lack of conscience vote on the conservative side. Does the ALP policy say that the conscience vote has to be parliamentary? Could a binding vote be used to get a referendum up and the referendum be the conscience vote?

  4. @William Bowe

    The Sydney Morning Herald story about Lee Rhiannon misses the rather important fact that those 16 candidates aren’t exactly vying for Senator Rhiannon’s seat. The Greens don’t preselect just one candidate, but one for every senate seat, and the membership encourages everyone to put their hat in the ring. The top 6 nominees (Or maybe 12) will win spots on the Greens NSW Senate ticket through an optional preferential ballot, so they need heaps of candidates. The article foams about people “in her own faction” (Whatever that means) “losing patience with her” (Whatever that means) and as a result running against her. Vast majority would be running as support candidates, there’s much more competition for that #2 spot, honestly. Even then, internal campaigns are less extreme wrestling, more local book club. And what on earth is with that SMH source? Did they get Kyle Sandilands or something? “To the left of Chairman Mao”? “Eastern bloc”? What kind of Green talks like that?

    The same goes for the news about the Tasmanian Greens preselection for Christine Milne’s seat. There’s all this media spray about a ‘battle heating up’ between the ‘McKim’ camp and the ‘Dark Green’ camp (Whatever any of that means) in a ‘secretive’ (SHOCK HORROR) preselection process for the vacancy. The reality is a handful of very polite member Q&As around the state to decide the entire campaign ticket. The membership encourages everyone to put their hat in the ring to get the best ticket possible and to give the up-and-comers a go. It’s certainly brought a few former unknowns into the public sphere, with contender profiles splashed across the news. Same goes for the State Parliament countback contenders to elect the new Greens MP for Bass – even the losers become local names.

    I tell you what though, the Greens get a good chuckle at some of the stuff the media comes up with.

  5. pedant@53

    Oakeshott Country @ 41: “Voter gradient” (in the literature called “single-peaked preferences”) is a sufficient but not necessary condition for there to be a Condorcet winner. Clearly a candidate who gets a majority of first preferences is a Condorcet winner, regardless of whether or not the voters’ preferences are single-peaked.

    Is this “voter gradient” concept similar to Range Voting? When I was told about it the first time I was rather perplexed and indifferent, but having read a bit more on it, I’m rather convinced. It not merely let voters rank the candidate in order of preference but also show the level of enthusiasm voters have for each candidate.

    It could really differentiate between a “least worst” candidate winning, and one which clearly rules out least popular ones from the set. (Not sure how I can elaborate this point to make it clearer.)

  6. PhoenixGreen

    I would image that the Greens would have factions, factions are only a side effect of human behavior.

    As the Greens mature as a party then those factions may become formalised as is the case in the ALP or remain informal as is the case in the Liberal Party

  7. >Range voting

    That sounds awesome. You’d probably have to ban HTVs though (Would anyone miss them?).

  8. @mexicanbeemer

    If there are factions at the moment then they are *very* informal, to the point of confusion. There are disagreements about particular issues and strategies of course, but people thrash it out over the one table. Even in candidate preselection contests people tend to keep their votes to themselves. It all happens through forums and leaflets, there’s no canvassing (That I’ve heard of).

    I think maybe there’s not enough voting in the Greens for there to be factions, any controversial decisions are made through debates and negotiations to reach consensus, but then you move down the agenda and find the ‘sides’ all mixed up on the next question. I’m really not saying consensus is a silver bullet or anything, obviously it wouldn’t work in most areas of life or to resolve certain kinds of disputes, but I think when you get that many people together who genuinely want to make consensus happen it can work pretty damn well. It’s a cliche, yes, but I think the Greens internals work quite differently to the other parties. I think it’s different enough that we shouldn’t assume the Greens will ‘mature’ to be just like Labor or the Liberals, or that those parties have some kind of monopoly on human nature. If the Greens can keep it up they may be worth their own category.

  10. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Charles Waterstreet examines Abbott’s avoidance of the refugees issue. It’s quite a spit.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/we-cant-avoid-worlds-disasters-by-averting-eyes-and-withdrawing-our-open-hands-20150523-gh7zgy
    Daniel Flitton says our foreign policy is compromised by our asylum seeker solution.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/foreign-policy-compromised-by-asylum-seeker-solution-20150523-gh785s
    This Victorian parliamentary inquiry gives a ray of hope into the provision of end-of-life choices. It’s time to lift the lid.
    http://www.theage.com.au/comment/victorian-parliamentary-inquiry-into-endoflife-choices-a-sign-of-progress-20150523-gh7flg
    From tomorrow the first two weeks of the Lindt siege inquiry will be live streamed.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydney-siege-inquest-opening-to-be-livestreamed-20150523-gh6l95
    This doesn’t make it easy for the cops.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/are-encrypted-phones-allowing-criminals-to-get-away-with-murder-20150523-gh82gv.html
    There has been a resounding win for same sex marriage in Ireland. Does send an even bigger message?
    http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/may/23/gay-marriage-ireland-yes-vote
    Ireland is facing its sectarian past – now it’s England’s turn.
    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/22/ireland-sectarian-referendum-england-move-on
    The perfect storm consuming PM Abbott.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/the-perfect-storm-consuming-tony-abbott,7747
    An excellent example of wrongly addressing a system problem as a special cause. Simply pathetic! Management 1.01.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/fiveminute-calls-to-centrelink-come-with-a-catch-20150523-gh7bj4
    It’s going to be a big week at the Royal Commission this week.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/may/23/paedophile-priest-gerald-ridsdale-faces-two-day-grilling-at-royal-comission

  11. Section 2 . . .

    I’ve had more than enough of Leyonhjelm. And Bob Day too.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/senator-david-leyonhjelm-wants-government-to-monitor-wind-turbine-noise-20150523-gh812j.html
    Annabel Crabbe comes up with a double dipping opportunity the new PPL proposal could deliver.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-opinion/annabel-crabb-budgets-paid-parental-leave-changes-may-help-men-return-home-20150523-gh7edv
    Why do Nationals hate Sydneysiders?
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/hey-duncan-gay-national-ministers-need-to-govern-for-latte-sippers-too-20150523-gh7quf
    What in the hell is going on here?
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/coles-workers-worse-off-under-deal-with-shoppies-union-20150523-gh7tqy
    Peter FitzSimons – Get back her right now George Pell!
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/are-encrypted-phones-allowing-criminals-to-get-away-with-murder-20150523-gh82gv.html
    Living the high life. For a while anyway.
    http://www.smh.com.au/national/courting-warnie-and-liz-clyde-campbells-bigspending-celeb-fest-20150523-gh84th.html
    What a classic from Alan Moir!

  12. Section 3 . . .

    Ron Tandberg says it all.

    John Shakespeare on CentreLink’s IT and call centre troubles.

    A brilliant effort from Pat Campbell as he take Australia to the Eurovision Song Contest.

    And some perspective from Mark Knight.

  13. BK

    [What in the hell is going on here?
    http://www.theage.com.au/national/coles-workers-worse-off-under-deal-with-shoppies-union-20150523-gh7tqy%5D

    Its related to this.

    [Australia’s biggest private-sector union pays major employers including Coles and Woolworths up to $5 million a year in commissions that help maintain its large membership, and influence in the Labor Party.

    The ALP’s largest union affiliate, the Shop, Distributive & Allied Employees Association (SDA) plays a significant role in social policy debates, its influence viewed as pivotal to marriage equality in Australia.]

    http://www.smh.com.au/national/shoppies-union-pay-coles-and-woolworths-millions-to-boost-membership-20150501-1mxufa.html

  16. Yep, it’s Joe’s mob and here in SA that includes Koutsantonis and Peter Malinauskas and Bernard Finnigan.
    We’re knee deep in them.

  17. http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/george-brandis-rejects-crossbench-push-on-extra-super-for-women-20150523-gh7bww

    [Mr Bandt introduced his bill last year as part of efforts to bridge the super gender gap. Women typically retire with much smaller savings than men because they’re paid less on average and often take time away from the workforce to raise children. On average, Australian men have $82,000 in their super accounts to women’s $44,000.

    Mr Bandt acted after the Association of Superannuation Funds of Australia (ASFA) complained that employers who want to pay extra super to women have to apply for a legal exemption or risk falling foul of the Sex Discrimination Act (SDA).

    But Senator Brandis has now written to Mr Bandt to tell him the government will not support his bill.]

  20. BK

    Maybe someone should let the Fairfax known hat Ireland held a SSM referendum over the weekend , at least tell the online SMH editors

  22. Morning BK.

    A bit cool here at minus five.

    Mr Somyurek, a Victorian Labor Government minister looks to be in a spot of bother.
    He reckons he is innocent, but.

  24. Boerwar
    Not so bad her this morning. I’ve just got back inside from tending to animal chores and my fingers are not tingling.

  26. Morning all. Great to see such a strong majority for Yes to Equality in Ireland. If Enda Kelly can stare down the catholic church in Ireland, why can’t a baptist Bill Shorten do it here? Politicians without backbones should not wonder if they then lack support from voters.

    Meanwhile thanks Fredex for the story on Coles, Woollies and the Shoppies. At this point you really have to wonder why de Bruyn and the Shoppies are even in the Labor Party, apart from the obvious attraction of a cushy job for life. If that union inquiry wants to do Labor a favour, please investigate the SDA. How many votes do those troglydites cost progressive politics? Do people like them lay the ground work for the likes of Tony Abbott to win elections? I think they do.

  27. ESJ

    I agree! Will Tony Abbott move for it in parliament? He promised us he would not allow his catholic beliefs to determine his actions as PM. Of course, a lot of his other promises turned out to be lies.

  28. A tweet from Bill Shorten this morning.
    “Time for Australia and our Parliament to embrace marriage equality. Congratulations Ireland”

  29. Morning all.

    Like I keep saying, de Bruyn would be better off serving the interests of his union’s members rather than obsessing about things like same sex marriage, which has zip to do with the working conditions of retail staff.

    How do these dinosaurs keep getting voted into union offices? Surely it’s time for a revolt.

  30. BK

    Hope you are feeling OK? It does look cold outside. Getting out of bed does not look a wise choice 🙂

  32. BK

    Thanks, pleasantly surprised by that tweet from Shorten. A bill for a referendum on marriage equality would be a good thing to move in parliament.

    Fess
    [How do these dinosaurs keep getting voted into union offices? Surely it’s time for a revolt.]
    Unions like the shoppies, with a large number of short term and moving workers, do not have real elections, that is how. That is also why they get Coles and Woolies to collect their union fees. Otherwise how many on minimum wage jobs would bother to join the SDA?

  33. Inspired by BK’s courageous example I will now leave this soft warm bed and start doing some chores. The Anzac spirit? Have a nice day all.

  34. BK at 131

    Hurrah & congratulations to Ireland for your courage. Australia hopes to be like you one day in regard to ssm.

  35. Socrates:

    I suppose I shouldn’t be surprised. The SDA continues to demonstrate it is completely out of touch with the issues relevant to its members.

  38. BK #128

    Even better, Shorten’s tweet :

    Time for Australia and our Parliament to embrace marriage equality. Congratulations Ireland

    was last night, almost as soon as result became clear. Obviously he was watching for the result.

  39. [SNP fury as HS2 finds ‘no business case’ for taking fast train service to Scotland ]

    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/snp-fury-as-hs2-finds-no-business-case-for-taking-fast-train-service-to-scotland-10272342.html

    The SNP can be as angry as they like about this.

    All they have offered is to build 46 miles of HS rail between Edinburgh/Waverley and Glasgow (this will be short of Glasgow Central).

    Nothing offered to finance the 220 miles of line from Manchester north of which they would be the main beneficiaries.

  40. Carey M:

    SDA backed parliamentarians aside, if you were an SDA member working at Coles you’d surely be wondering why it was that your salary and conditions were lagging behind your peers working elsewhere at the same time as your union’s leadership was so vocal about matters irrelevant to your employment such as marriage equality?

    Such a shame that one of the most exploited and underpaid sectors of the workforce has a crappy and ineffective union representing it.

  42. Insiders intro with the same point I made here the other day: Lib backbencher who drove spill earlier in the year now giving Abbott 10/10.

    ….alas, not likely he is going to be dumped pre election now….

  43. Congratulations to the Irish. Very strong result for the Marriage Equality plebiscite.

    Might trigger a plebiscite here too methinks, but not with this PM in place!

  44. Glen:

    Where are you?

    Bruce Bilson on Insiders dude…..its your time in the sunshine, come out to play
    🙂

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