Two new polls on state voting intention for Queensland, producing somewhat different results:
A Galaxy poll of 800 respondents for the Sunday Mail, from the same sample which produced the federal voting intention numbers published yesterday, has Labor on 40%, the Liberal National Party on 39%, the Greens on 9%, and Palmer United and Katter’s Australian Party on 3% apiece. This compares with respective results of 37.5%, 41.3%, 8.4%, 5.1% and 1.9% at the election on January 31 (remembering that the KAP didn’t run many candidates), while the last Galaxy poll in early April had Labor on 39% and the LNP on 42%. This converts into a headline two-party result of 52-48, which is based on preferences flows from previous elections note the plural. My own calculation based on preference flows from the January election comes out at more like 54-46.
A ReachTEL automated phone poll for the Seven Network is a good deal less encouraging for Labor, with primary votes of 45.6% for the Liberal National Party, 37.6% for Labor and 9.4% for the Greens. This converts into a two-party preferred result of 52-48 in favour of the LNP, which is based on respondent-allocated preferences on previous election preferences, it would more likely have been 51-49. The poll was conducted on Friday night from a sample of 1550.
The Galaxy poll records strong personal ratings for Annastacia Palaszczuk, at 59% approval and 27% disapproval, respectively up six and up three on the previous poll. Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg scores 41% approval and 39% disapproval, and trails Palaszczuk 55-30 as preferred premier. ReachTEL also features leadership approval ratings, but it must be kept in mind that these aren’t directly comparable with Galaxy’s because they offer respondents a five-point scale, rather than the usual approve/disapprove/uncommitted. For Annastacia Palaszczuk, 40.2% offered positive responses, 25.1% intermediate and 34.8% negative, while the respective figures for Lawrence Springborg were 28.8%, 33.8% and 37.3%.
The Galaxy poll found 39% saying the change of government was good for the state versus 21% for bad, with 37% opting for little impact, and if I’m reading it correctly 16% saying Palaszczuk has exceeded expectations, 35% saying she has met them, and 27% saying she has fallen short. Similar questions from ReachTEL underscore the overall soft result for Labor in finding 44.1% saying their confidence in the state’s economy has decreased since the election compared with 29.7% for increased, while 45.2% saying confidence in the local job market has increased against 19.2% for decreased. However, the Seven Network’s graphic also appears to say that 46.1% feel positive about the change of government compared with 38.9% for negative.
UPDATE: ReachTEL has helpfully published its preference distributions. For the Greens, these are roughly in line with the election result in going 61.0% to Labor and 9.2% to the LNP, compared with Antony Green’s post-election calculations of 63.1% and 12.6%. However, it’s quite a bit different for the others vote, which my own determinations from the election put at 35% for Labor and 19% for the LNP. ReachTEL has a much higher exhaustion rate, of 61.4% as opposed to 46%, with the LNP (21.9%) getting more of the remainder than Labor (16.7%).