Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor in Queensland; ReachTEL: 52-48 to LNP

New polls from Queensland record strong personal ratings for Annastacia Palaszczuk, but find support for the two parties still finely balanced.

Two new polls on state voting intention for Queensland, producing somewhat different results:

• A Galaxy poll of 800 respondents for the Sunday Mail, from the same sample which produced the federal voting intention numbers published yesterday, has Labor on 40%, the Liberal National Party on 39%, the Greens on 9%, and Palmer United and Katter’s Australian Party on 3% apiece. This compares with respective results of 37.5%, 41.3%, 8.4%, 5.1% and 1.9% at the election on January 31 (remembering that the KAP didn’t run many candidates), while the last Galaxy poll in early April had Labor on 39% and the LNP on 42%. This converts into a headline two-party result of 52-48, which is based on “preferences flows from previous elections” – note the plural. My own calculation based on preference flows from the January election comes out at more like 54-46.

• A ReachTEL automated phone poll for the Seven Network is a good deal less encouraging for Labor, with primary votes of 45.6% for the Liberal National Party, 37.6% for Labor and 9.4% for the Greens. This converts into a two-party preferred result of 52-48 in favour of the LNP, which is based on respondent-allocated preferences – on previous election preferences, it would more likely have been 51-49. The poll was conducted on Friday night from a sample of 1550.

• The Galaxy poll records strong personal ratings for Annastacia Palaszczuk, at 59% approval and 27% disapproval, respectively up six and up three on the previous poll. Opposition Leader Lawrence Springborg scores 41% approval and 39% disapproval, and trails Palaszczuk 55-30 as preferred premier. ReachTEL also features leadership approval ratings, but it must be kept in mind that these aren’t directly comparable with Galaxy’s because they offer respondents a five-point scale, rather than the usual approve/disapprove/uncommitted. For Annastacia Palaszczuk, 40.2% offered positive responses, 25.1% intermediate and 34.8% negative, while the respective figures for Lawrence Springborg were 28.8%, 33.8% and 37.3%.

• The Galaxy poll found 39% saying the change of government was good for the state versus 21% for bad, with 37% opting for “little impact”, and – if I’m reading it correctly – 16% saying Palaszczuk has exceeded expectations, 35% saying she has met them, and 27% saying she has fallen short. Similar questions from ReachTEL underscore the overall soft result for Labor in finding 44.1% saying their confidence in the state’s economy has decreased since the election compared with 29.7% for increased, while 45.2% saying confidence in the local job market has increased against 19.2% for decreased. However, the Seven Network’s graphic also appears to say that 46.1% feel positive about the change of government compared with 38.9% for negative.

UPDATE: ReachTEL has helpfully published its preference distributions. For the Greens, these are roughly in line with the election result in going 61.0% to Labor and 9.2% to the LNP, compared with Antony Green’s post-election calculations of 63.1% and 12.6%. However, it’s quite a bit different for the “others” vote, which my own determinations from the election put at 35% for Labor and 19% for the LNP. ReachTEL has a much higher exhaustion rate, of 61.4% as opposed to 46%, with the LNP (21.9%) getting more of the remainder than Labor (16.7%).

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

46 comments on “Galaxy: 52-48 to Labor in Queensland; ReachTEL: 52-48 to LNP”

  1. That Courier-Mail article on the poll by Steven Wardill is one of the strangest I have seen in a very long time.
    It not only is clearly biased but contains within the article the evidence, those inconvenient things called facts, that exposes the bias such the attempts at spin are so transparent and blatant as to parody itself.
    Each opinionated statement by Wardill is contradicted within the article by himself.
    I wondered if he is self aware of the paradoxes he has presented or is so biased he really believes what he is written.

  2. CM report says AP’s satisfaction rating is “More than 50” but doesn’t give an exact number.

    The most dubious bit in the CM’s report is this:

    “But Labor’s support remains in a position unlikely to return them to government in their own right, with voters denying Ms Palaszczuk’s team the honeymoon period commonly handed to new administrations.”

    If it’s saying that Labor would be unlikely to win in their own right if the current poll numbers were repeated at an election, then that’s rubbish. Even a simple read of the pendulum says 52-48 is seat gains, but more likely the pendulum understates things because Labor would have sophomore effect in its close seats while the LNP would be at risk of losing some through random variation.

    If it’s saying that because Labor hasn’t picked up a normal level of gain from honeymoon effect then that means it’s unlikely to win the next election outright then that’s an exceedingly long bow to draw especially as the presence or absence of a honeymoon effect probably has a predictive value for the next election of round about diddly-squat.

  3. [The poll found 39 per cent believed the change of government was good for the state, 37 per cent said the switch had little impact, while 21 per cent thought the downfall of Campbell Newman’s regime was bad for Queensland.]

    Counting out about 37% who is rather indifferent, it seems nearly 2:1 think it’s a good thing rather than a bad thing.

  4. Headline
    [Queensland Labor failing to gain popularity off the back of Annastacia Palaszczuk’s positive start as Premier]

    Queensland Labor gaining 2.5% popularity = failing to gain popularity in the maths of Steve Wardill of the CM.

  5. TBA – 6

    What are you on about? These are good numbers. Absolutely no way Annastacia is going anywhere after the routing the LNP in February.

    Her government has done well despite the Gordon fiasco. This is still an increase in support after the election, and they’d likely be majority if there was one now.

    It’s a long away however, and if she governs with a steady hand, undoing the nastiness of the Newman era, there’s no reason why they’d lose.

  6. TrueBlueAussie@6

    Christ even Gillard had a better honeymoon than this.

    I share the widespread opinion that TBA is just a troll, but it is worth addressing this anyway – it isn’t true. Aggregated voting intention showed almost no gain for Labor on putting Gillard in (about one point, half of which was gone within a couple of weeks), and there wasn’t any post-election-win bounce to speak of either.

    Indeed the 2PP bounce for Palaszczuk is only as small as it is because Galaxy is assuming a radical swing back in the distribution of preferences – an assumption that at this early stage isn’t necessarily true (though it may well be at next election).

  7. Somehow, the revolting lowlife scum of the Courier-Mail contrive reports the exact opposite result to the numbers

    [But Labor’s support remains in a position unlikely to return them to government in their own right, with voters denying Ms Palaszczuk’s team the honeymoon period commonly handed to new administrations.]

    No, your poll says the opposite of that: their lead over the LNP, established in the election they won (a humiliating record loss for the LNP) has INCREASED in this poll by 2 points. As has the ALP Primary.

  8. This is a comfortably good result for QLD Labor.
    To call it anything else is spin. No big story here.

  9. Labor primary vote is 40% at the last election it was 38%. I’m not sure what the Courier Mail is suggesting that Labor wouldn’t win a majority in its own right. Still early days but if Annastacia Palaszczuk can be steady hand incumbency will greatly be a advantage to her. The economy could be a problem though, most voters accept that Labor being in for only three months can’t be pinned on them but that might not hold if it continues to travel poorly.

  10. The Curious-Snail is a scurrilously biased pro-LNP shitsheet, and its in denial. Which is a place in the Sudan.

    That’s whats going on here.

  11. Some other reports now have Palaszczuk’s satisfaction rating at 50 rather than more than 50 but I am not sure which set of reports is wrong – anyone see the paper edition? Or perhaps it was something like 50.3.

  12. @ William Bowe, 18

    So either Galaxy or ReachTEL is reasonably likely to be rogue, what with the 6.6% difference in the LNP primary vote, right?

  13. The ReachTEL seems to be more or less the same as the last election for the ALP’s primary vote, so I’d guess the net movement there is from PUP to LNP.

  14. But…But… everyone here was telling me Anna 2.0 was super popular.

    Oh well.. that was short lived.

    Bye Bye Anna. The good news is she is going to be a real asset for Abbott in about 12 months from now

  15. According to ReachTEL accoun on twitter, “We are using respondent allocated. Previous election prefs didn’t work in previous QLD election.”

  16. So the Cooty Mal doesn’t have anyone who can count past 50? Is there any way of smacking the clowns for this fudge? It’s a blatant example of partisan deceit.

  17. @ Leroy Lynch, 23

    They’re right that previous election prefs didn’t work in the previous QLD election, but this time they will be closer to the truth, since the previous election is now a “normal” result rather than a landslide result as the 2012 election was.

  18. Friday does seem odd, they usually do their polls Thursday, as far as I can remember. But I don’t know how much that affects other companies polling, if at all

  19. 25

    The rate of preferencing the ALP is likely to get lower as the government go on, except when the LNP are being particularly objectionable, and the ALP not so objectionable, in the opinion of minor party voters (especially the Greens).

  20. There will be a Roy Morgan set of SMS state polls out in the next couple of days to add to the mix. Longer term, maybe we will get one last set of Newspoll bi-monthly state polls at the end of their run in June.

  21. They DO call mobiles though so that’s another argument gone.

    I know this because they tried calling me a few days ago as a QLD small business owner and it was much annoying

  22. @ WB, 27

    Ha. Funny.

    Do you know if there’s any notable house effect for ReachTEL with QLD state polling?

  23. I also thought ReachTel if anything was a touch biased to Labor however I don’t think this result reflects the current situation. It looks LNP friendly to me.

  24. I don’t think ReachTEL in Queensland has any significant house effect. The final ReachTEL, Galaxy and Newspoll for Queensland state election were quite similar and quite close to the actual primaries for the majors (Newspoll hugely overestimated Others at the expense of Greens and PUP). Also I found they were generally similar to each other for some time in the leadup.

    It’s possible that neither is rogue and both are just outliers. I’m not very convinced of that though.

  25. I might propose that question design had something to do with the difference. I’d be interest to find out how Galaxy’s was structured. Ordinarily, a live interview phone pollster will offer response options of Labor, Coalition, Greens or other, and then if other, you get a second list of smaller parties. Minor parties get a higher result if they’re included in the first question rather than the second. Is Galaxy perhaps maintaining an old habit of including Palmer United in the first question? ReachTEL only asks one question, and they’ve dropped PUP from it on the basis that they won’t be contesting state elections in future. In any case, the “others” ratings – 12% from Galaxy, 7.4% from ReachTEL – are outside the range of their error margin.

  26. If that is the case then the C-M may have accidently got the situation close when they wrote it’s still minority government territory.

  27. TBA @6:

    [Christ even Gillard had a better honeymoon than this.]

    +32% net approval isn’t a honeymoon? By your metric, Tony Abbott should just forget trying to contest the next election, period!

    (PS: Please don’t try to get him to shuffle off – his mouth is Labor’s biggest asset.)

  28. [“+32% net approval isn’t a honeymoon? By your metric, Tony Abbott should just forget trying to contest the next election, period!”]

    She has a net approval because she hasn’t done ANYTHING.

    Which is the exact same reason Labors fortunes are going backwards.

    Queensland is almost Government-less

  29. So, according to William’s analysis, the published poll is not only incomplete (AP’s 50+ approval is really 59), they’ve fudged the preferences to get a 52-48 when prefs from the most recent election would give 54-46. Why bother running polls if you’re going to ignore them?

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *