Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A new Galaxy poll finds the Abbott government rallying in Queensland, and records next to nothing left of Palmer United support even in its home state.

Today’s Courier-Mail brings a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland, encompassing 800 respondents and presumably conducted over the past few days. The primary vote numbers are 44% for the Coalition, 36% for Labor, 10% for the Greens and 2% for Palmer United, compared with respective results at the 2013 election of 45.7%, 29.8%, 6.2% and 11.0%. This converts into a Coalition two-party lead of 51-49, a swing to Labor of 6% from the 2013 result.

A fair bit happening lately on the federal preselection front:

• Joanna Lindgren will fill the Queensland Senate vacancy created by Brett Mason’s appointment as ambassador to the Netherlands, after prevailing in a preselection ballot over seven rival candidates. Her win was achieved despite Tony Abbott, John Howard and Julie Bishop having backed Bill Glasson, an opthamologist, former Australian Medical Association president and twice-unsuccessful candidate for Griffith, firstly against Kevin Rudd in 2013 and again at the by-election held to replace him the following February. Lindgren has been described as a “project officer”, and is apparently the great-niece of former Liberal Senator Neville Bonner, Australia’s first indigenous parliamentarian.

• The Queensland ALP wrapped up preselection in nearly every seat that matters on Wednesday. Cameron Atfield of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the candidate for Forde in Brisbane’s outer south is Des Hardman, who made way for Peter Beattie’s unsuccessful bid for the seat in 2013. Laura Fraser Hardy, a lawyer, will make her second successive run against Liberal incumbent Ross Vasta in the bayside marginal seat of Bonner. The preselection of five out of Labor’s six lower house incumbents was also confirmed, including that of Wayne Swan in Lilley. The exception is Bernie Ripoll in Oxley, who will make way for Brisbane City Council opposition leader Milton Dick.

• A Liberal National Party preselection held this morning for Clive Palmer’s seat of Fairfax was won by Ted O’Brien, managing director of government relations firm Barton Deakin and the unsuccessful candidate in 2013. Others in the field were Peter Duffy, a construction manager; Don Jamieson, a banking manager; Chloe Kopilovic, a solicitor; Adrian McCallum, an engineering lecturer at the University of Sunshine Coast; and Mark Somlyay, an accountant and son of former member Alex Somlyay. Labor has preselected Scott Anderson, an IT consultant.

• Heath Aston of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that NSW Greens Senator Lee Rhiannon’s bid for another term is meeting resistance from no fewer than 16 rival preselection nominees. Among them are several colleagues of Rhiannon’s in the “hard left” faction, including Jim Casey, the state secretary of the Fire Brigade Employees Union, together with “James Ryan, Amanda Findley, Jane Oakley and Ben Hammond”. Also in the field are Cate Faerhrmann, who filled Rhiannon’s state upper house vacancy when she moved to the Senate in 2010, before abandoning it for an unsuccessful Senate bid in 2013; and Arthur Chesterfield-Evans, who held a state upper house seat for the Australian Democrats from 1998 to 2007.

• Sean Ford of the Burnie Advocate reports that Labor’s preselection candidates for the north-western Tasmanian seat of Braddon include Justine Keay, a Devonport alderman and electorate officer to Tasmanian Opposition Leader Bryan Green, and Themba Bulle, a Burnie general practitioner. The current Liberal member, Brett Whiteley, won the seat from Labor’s Sid Sidebottom in 2013.

• Labor’s candidate to run against Adam Bandt in Melbourne is Sophie Ismail, a Victorian Education Department lawyer and member of the Socialist Left faction.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,250 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. [Wow taking away GST on sanitary products will save the consumer $10 per year. Yippee!! ]

    Fair point. Removing it is more a symbolic act than anything.

  2. 981

    There are still questions left to answer about the referendum.

    The biggest is whether or not 16 and 17 year olds will get to vote. That likely has a majority in the Lords and may possibly in the Commons.

    The next question is if the SNP get their double majority requirement in. They want the 4 countries of the UK to have to vote yes for the referendum to succeed, so that an English majority does not overwhelm opposition in Scotland, and maybe Wales and Northern Ireland. Labour, however, opposes this and so it is unlikely.

    The third question is whether or not the non-Commonwealth and non-Irish EU citizens (Cypriot and Maltese citizens get the vote because they are Commonwealth Citizens and Irish Citizens also get the vote for similar historic reasons) will get the vote in referendum, like they do in local and EU elections but not UK Parliament elections. Few seem to be arguing for it but they should get the vote because they are many of the most effected people.

  4. All this talk of Abbott being in election mode is crazy so I don’t doubt it for a second. I wonder how the rest of the party feels about this move though? Perhaps they need to push him before he jumps and takes them all with him.

  6. 1004

    At the moment a new election, of the DD variety, looks like an almost reasonable strategy. Get a hopefully (for the Coalition) more pliable Senate and be earlier in the term so they can implement some of their nastier policies.

    The really interesting proposition come up if Abbott messes up again and the polls go back down. Then the Liberals are likely to try and replace him. I would not put it past Abbott to call a DD (or if no DD could be called, a House only election) if he found out he was certainly for the chop.

  7. I’m thinking the second is the more likely scenario. With people now becoming aware of the hidden nasties in the budget and Abbott making an arse of himself the past week they’d be better to chop him before he does something stupid…er.

  8. 1007

    Because of the happenings in the previous government, the Liberals are quite hesitant to change a first term leader, especially without publicly visible reasonable cause. Thus Abbott is unlikely to be toppled without messing up.

  9. I think this would be the one time people would look past it. Lol. To me Abbott seems to be becoming undone. Be it via election of the chopping block the sooner he’s gone the better.

  10. 1009

    I do not want he replaced as Liberal leader until after the election. If he is replaced before then next election and the new leader goes straight to the polls, the Coalition might win the election and that would be bad.

  11. [It’s the bird-watching equivalent of winning the lottery – and it has ornithologists all aflutter in Melbourne’s west.

    An albino sparrow has been photographed in Sanctuary Lakes, the first such sighting in Australia and the seventh confirmed sighting globally this century.

    Sanctuary Lakes resident Bob Winters captured the images of the rare passerine, and says he spent hours waiting to take its photo. He thinks it’s about seven or eight months old.]

    http://www.skynews.com.au/culture/offbeat/2015/05/25/rare-albino-sparrow-photographed-in-vic.html?cid=BP_LINKLIST_sn-offbeat_1_rare-albino-sparrow-photographed-in-vic_250515

  12. Dee

    The bird isn’t a true albino as it has dark eyes. These little failures of reporting are magnified when journos fail to check detail, as they do so often when reporting politics.

  13. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leucism

    [Leucism /ˈljuːsɪzəm/[1] is a condition in which there is partial loss of pigmentation in an animal resulting in white, pale, or patchy coloration of the skin, hair, feathers, scales or cuticle, but not the eyes.[2] Unlike albinism, it is caused by a reduction in multiple types of pigment, not just melanin.]

  20. [Hundreds of Australians could be at risk of brain damage because they cannot afford low-protein foods, following an Abbott government decision to abolish a grant that helps families meet the high costs of medical foods.

    More than 900 Australians receive the grant of $256 a month under the Inborn Error of Metabolism program, which supports people with metabolic disorders to purchase the medically prescribed foods they need to avoid consequences such as brain damage, seizures and liver failure.

    The most common disorder, phenylketonuria (PKU) is a genetic condition in which the person is unable to break down certain amino acids in protein. If people with PKU fail to maintain a diet very low in protein, they suffer neurological impairment.]

    Sussan Ley virtually says that the sufferers could try harder.

    http://www.theage.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/health-cut-to-cause-hardship-for-sufferers-of-genetic-disorder-20150525-gh938z.html

  23. I gather from this tweet, that monis was a nutjob and a wannabe terrorist?

    [Monis ASKED THE GOVERNMENT how to contact the head of ISIS. And yet, Martin Place happened]

  24. Morning all.

    Imagine if this happened under a Labor govt:

    [A group of Vietnamese asylum seekers were held secretly at sea for more than a month before being sent back to their home country, the commander in charge of Australia’s border operations has revealed.

    Operation Sovereign Borders head Major General Andrew Bottrell told a Senate estimates hearing the group of 46 asylum seekers was intercepted on March 20, 2015.

    The group of men, women and children were taken into Australian custody and held at sea until April 18.

    Officials told the estimates hearing they had face-to-face interviews at sea and were “screened out”, meaning none of those on board engaged Australia’s protection obligations.]
    http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-05-25/australia-confirms-vietnamese-asylum-seekers-detained-at-sea/6496290

    And once again, how is it that Australia can remain signed up to the RC when we continue to flout its principles and the obligations we signed up to?

  29. victoria

    A nutjob rejected by several groups. He just wanted to be ‘famous’ or ‘significant’. Failure of security, though.

  30. fess

    There are countless things that have occurred under this govt. that have been reported as “meh”
    That is what is really frustrating me to no end. The relentless crticism of team Labor did not stop for a minute.
    Of course, now we are going to have a three part series on ABC soon to dissect the whole dysfunction within the party too. Sigh…….

  32. Why bother to “have a go” if I’m being made to fear for my life with all the Muslim stuff.

    Do we have a Minister for Science and Technology?

    Spending more on Counter Twrrorism than Domestic Violence. Shameful.

  33. http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/may/26/voters-in-six-marginal-seats-sceptical-of-coalitions-budget-messages-poll-finds

    A majority of voters in six crucial marginal seats are sceptical of the Abbott government’s central budget messages – saying they believe the Coalition will make more cuts to health and education and has not done enough to create jobs – but many of them have not shifted their vote to Labor.

    [A ReachTEL poll in six Coalition-held marginals was commissioned by the Australian Council of Trade Unions as it plans a multimillion dollar grassroots campaign against the Abbott government in 30 electorates across the country.

    Most published polls show the Coalition gaining ground since its second budget, but continuing to lag Labor by around 52% to 48% on two-party-preferred terms.

    In each of the marginal seats polled by the ACTU there was a primary vote swing of between 2% and 4% against the sitting Coalition MP, but in most cases voters had switched to the Greens or the undecided column rather than to Labor.

    The telephone poll of between 650 and 700 voters in each seat, taken last Sunday night, suggests the government has not yet convinced the electorate that it has finished with deep cuts to spending in its 2014 budget, nor satisfied them that it has done enough to create jobs – the central message of budget 2015.]

  34. lizzie

    The public should be pissed off with the failure of the justice system in NSW. This man was a criminal and a nutjob and yet he was out and about.

  36. BK

    I hope you are resting and sleeping well. Like everyone else here, I miss your warm company in the morning.

  37. Kirky

    This govt wants us to have a go at being afraid and getting into more personal debt. That is all they are offering. What a bunch of incompetent shysters and frauds

  38. victoria:

    And the hysteria directed at Labor was entirely overblown. The fuss and carry on over media reforms for eg vs the near silence over the actual secrecy of this govt.

  39. [Spending more on Counter Twrrorism than Domestic Violence. Shameful.]

    Since the coalition has gotten elected the defence budget has grown at a much steeper rate than the education budget.

  40. Lizzie and Victoria

    Agreed on Monis. If any of our efforts on policing, court interventions for violence against women, or mental health had been up to scratch, it never would have happened. He was not a terrorist, just a nasty man.

  41. fess

    Of course the hysteria was oveblown. Abbott made sure he was on his soap box each and every day to yell his mantra, this is a a bad govt getting worse

  42. Peter Martin

    [Where will the police turn up next? They are already mixing it with the department of immigration in Operation Sovereign Borders. They’re smartening up the place as well. I am told departmental staff have been asked to dress sharply and get haircuts. They’ve even been directed not to wear their photo IDs when they leave the building. They have to be careful.

    Now it’s Human Services’ turn. Essentially a call centre and payments organisation, the department that runs Centrelink is about to get a “tough cop on the beat”. A “senior police officer” is to lead its crackdown on welfare fraud, or so a Sunday newspaper tells us. Never mind that the department’s annual report shows it already has nine federal police working with it, apparently appointing an extra one to lead a taskforce could claw back an extra $1.5 billion in overpayments. The minister says so.]

    http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/tax-reform-would-get-more-from-rich-targets-20150525-gh8ocx

  44. Peter’s not happy.

    [I am just one who’s been taken for a ride. Welfare lobbyists who cautiously supported the winding back of pension access in return for action on super; the super industry itself, which offered up modest savings; the opposition, which drew up its own proposals, believing the offer of bipartisanship was genuine – all of us have been waiting for something we are now told won’t happen.

    Except that it will. After the election whoever wins will (re)discover that tax concessions skewed to Australia’s highest earners exceeding the cost of the pension are not sustainable.

    In the meantime, welfare cheats on far lower incomes should expect to hear from the police.]

  45. Mark Kenny unimpressed by Abbott’s terror csar.

    [There is an episode of political satire The Hollowmen in which a counter-terrorism review concludes there are too many agencies and some should be scotched or merged.

    What follows is an unedifying inter-agency bunfight in which patriotism and the national interest are parlayed and the “political” outcome is a net addition of one via a new agency to better “co-ordinate” the myriad competing silos of power.

    Sound familiar? On Monday, Tony Abbott struggled to explain, in any sort of convincing detail, the role and functions of his new National Counter-Terrorism Co-ordinator, Greg Moriarty. Nor could he explain the interplay between the existing National Security Adviser located within the Prime Minister’s Department, and that of the new post – also within what Mr Abbott proudly called “my department, the Commonwealth’s principal co-ordinating department”.]
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/new-counterterrorism-tsar-could-be-windowdressing-20150525-gh98i3.html

  46. Good morning Dawn Patrollers.

    Peter Martin reviews Hockey’s “policy on the run” Q and A appearance. (And I have a question – how does the rate of return for a super fund have any effect on the concept of taxing EXCESSIVE intra-fund earnings?)
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/qa-policy-on-the-run-as-joe-hockey-puts-tampons-super-tax-concessions-on-the-agenda-20150525-gh9g53.html
    And this review of his performance has hardly laudatory.
    http://www.smh.com.au/entertainment/tv-and-radio/qa-the-many-faces-of-postbudget-treasurer-joe-hockey-20150526-gh9gbe.html
    Gareth Hutchens says Hockey my well rue having a big mouth.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/treasurer-joe-hockey-has-done-something-he-may-regret-20150525-gh94lp.html
    Peter Hartcher on green power success stories taking the wind out of Abbott.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/green-power-success-stories-take-the-wind-out-of-tony-abbott-20150525-gh9bd6.html
    The War on Terriers got a good run in Estimates yesterday.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/johnny-depps-dogs-pistol-and-boo-in-senate-committee-hearings-20150525-gh99fa.html
    There is some Coalition fracturing in NSW and the Nats want to stamp down on CSG.
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/nationals-push-for-ban-on-csg-in-the-northern-rivers-20150525-gh98nh.html
    Our PM is morphing into our very own George W Bush – and loving it!
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/prime-minister-tony-abbott-beefs-up-counterterrorism-campaign-20150525-gh8zlw.html
    Mark Kenny opines that the appointment of the tsar may be window dressing.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/new-counterterrorism-tsar-could-be-windowdressing-20150525-gh98i3.html
    The Greens ramp up on SSM.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/samesex-marriage-greens-set-date-for-parliamentary-vote-20150525-gh93ja.html
    Abbott’s Australia is dragging the chain on SSM says the Independent Australia.
    https://independentaustralia.net/politics/politics-display/marriage-equality-as-simple-as-changing-five-words,7753

  48. Section 2 . . .

    The 19 worst things the Liberals did yesterday.
    http://www.ellistabletalk.com/2015/05/25/the-nineteen-worst-things-the-liberals-did-yesterday-260/
    Our new “Border Force” could kick off with a mutiny over the pay offer for those being transferred over from Customs.
    http://www.canberratimes.com.au/national/public-service/public-servants-in-customs-going-ballistic-over-border-force-pay-offer-20150525-gh8qej
    Foxtel appears to be losing the war with Netflix.
    http://thenewdaily.com.au/entertainment/2015/05/24/foxtel-losing-war-netflix/
    How Question Time has descended to what it is. Thanks to Bronwyn Bishop. It’s a good examination.
    http://theaimn.com/the-bear-pit-called-question-time/
    “View from the Street” says that Abbott is reasserting his commitment to avoid marriage equality. Also he looks at the government’s ridiculing of the NATSEM study.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/nursing-homes-need-nurses-losing-them-would-undermine-residents-care-20150525-gh8top.html
    Put this string into a Google search to see Craig Emerson describing the government’s “fairytale economics”.
    /opinion/columnists/budget-2015-we-are-indulging-in-fairytale-economics-20150525-gh8yti
    A good place to not be in the future?
    http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/sydney-traffic-secret-westconnex-documents-show-worse-congestion-after-toll-road-20150525-gh980u.html
    Peter Martin is less than happy with some of this government’s priorities.
    http://www.theage.com.au/business/the-economy/tax-reform-would-get-more-from-rich-targets-20150525-gh8ocx
    Lenore Taylor – A poll in six marginal seats reveal the voters are sceptical about the budget and its messages.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/may/26/voters-in-six-marginal-seats-sceptical-of-coalitions-budget-messages-poll-finds
    More from Lenore on the 2015 budget.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/may/25/budget-2015-all-that-glisters-isnt-necessary-gold-for-poorer-families

  49. Section 3 . . .

    Even the “prestigious” Geelong Grammar School is asking people to come forward on child sexual abuse.
    http://www.theage.com.au/victoria/geelong-grammar-urges-school-sex-abuse-victims-to-come-forward-20150525-gh9epl.html
    Did Pell make a tactical error in visiting Ballarat a few weeks ago?
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/may/25/george-pell-made-recent-trip-to-ballarat-sparking-calls-for-royal-commission-appearance
    The CA Royal Commission hears that Catholic celibacy does not in itself lead to child abuse.
    http://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2015/may/25/catholic-celibacy-does-not-drive-child-abuse-royal-commission-hears
    Michelle Grattan asks what is next for Australia when it comes to dealing with IS.
    https://theconversation.com/abbott-prefers-to-stay-on-the-high-moral-ground-in-a-war-mired-in-murkiness-42337
    This fact check supports Chris Bowen’s assertion that taxes are up in every year of an Abbott government.
    https://theconversation.com/factcheck-is-tax-up-every-year-under-the-abbott-government-41966
    The head of the BoM tells Estimates that Abbott’s hand-picked man Newman was totally wrong on climate change.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/bureau-of-meteorology-rejects-maurice-newmans-climate-claims-20150525-gh90md.html
    Collateral damage from health cuts.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/health-cut-to-cause-hardship-for-sufferers-of-genetic-disorder-20150525-gh938z.html
    Greg Jericho – After the EastWest Link the “Infrastructure PM is all talk no work.
    http://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2015/may/25/after-the-death-of-the-east-west-link-infrastructure-pm-tony-abbott-is-more-talk-than-walk
    The Immigration Department confirms at Estimates that it is being investigated by the CA Royal Commission.
    http://www.smh.com.au/federal-politics/political-news/immigration-department-confirms-it-is-being-investigated-by-sex-abuse-royal-commission-20150525-gh94sh.html
    Tim Dick – the right to discriminate is just a cover for prejudice. A very good read.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/the-right-to-discriminate-is-just-a-cover-for-prejudice-20150525-gh8uz5.html

  50. Section 4 . . .

    Quentin Dempster looks at the future of ICAC.
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/icac-review-could-muzzle-the-corruption-watchdog-but-its-still-got-plenty-of-work-to-do-20150525-gh8wjv.html
    Is NSW going to head down a slippery slope with nursing homes?
    http://www.smh.com.au/comment/nursing-homes-need-nurses-losing-them-would-undermine-residents-care-20150525-gh8top.html
    Bruce Petty uses Abbott’s gift to cartoonists, “Nope nope nope”.

    Cathy Wilcox says a lot with this one.

    Ouch! Ron Tandberg thinks our international reputation is suffering.

    MUST SEE! David Pope brigs it all together.

    ALSO MUST SEE! David Rowe on budget modelling.

    John Kudelka on the battle of budget modelling.

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