Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in Queensland

A new Galaxy poll finds the Abbott government rallying in Queensland, and records next to nothing left of Palmer United support even in its home state.

Today’s Courier-Mail brings a Galaxy poll of federal voting intention in Queensland, encompassing 800 respondents and presumably conducted over the past few days. The primary vote numbers are 44% for the Coalition, 36% for Labor, 10% for the Greens and 2% for Palmer United, compared with respective results at the 2013 election of 45.7%, 29.8%, 6.2% and 11.0%. This converts into a Coalition two-party lead of 51-49, a swing to Labor of 6% from the 2013 result.

A fair bit happening lately on the federal preselection front:

• Joanna Lindgren will fill the Queensland Senate vacancy created by Brett Mason’s appointment as ambassador to the Netherlands, after prevailing in a preselection ballot over seven rival candidates. Her win was achieved despite Tony Abbott, John Howard and Julie Bishop having backed Bill Glasson, an opthamologist, former Australian Medical Association president and twice-unsuccessful candidate for Griffith, firstly against Kevin Rudd in 2013 and again at the by-election held to replace him the following February. Lindgren has been described as a “project officer”, and is apparently the great-niece of former Liberal Senator Neville Bonner, Australia’s first indigenous parliamentarian.

• The Queensland ALP wrapped up preselection in nearly every seat that matters on Wednesday. Cameron Atfield of the Sydney Morning Herald reports the candidate for Forde in Brisbane’s outer south is Des Hardman, who made way for Peter Beattie’s unsuccessful bid for the seat in 2013. Laura Fraser Hardy, a lawyer, will make her second successive run against Liberal incumbent Ross Vasta in the bayside marginal seat of Bonner. The preselection of five out of Labor’s six lower house incumbents was also confirmed, including that of Wayne Swan in Lilley. The exception is Bernie Ripoll in Oxley, who will make way for Brisbane City Council opposition leader Milton Dick.

• A Liberal National Party preselection held this morning for Clive Palmer’s seat of Fairfax was won by Ted O’Brien, managing director of government relations firm Barton Deakin and the unsuccessful candidate in 2013. Others in the field were Peter Duffy, a construction manager; Don Jamieson, a banking manager; Chloe Kopilovic, a solicitor; Adrian McCallum, an engineering lecturer at the University of Sunshine Coast; and Mark Somlyay, an accountant and son of former member Alex Somlyay. Labor has preselected Scott Anderson, an IT consultant.

• Heath Aston of the Sydney Morning Herald reports that NSW Greens Senator Lee Rhiannon’s bid for another term is meeting resistance from no fewer than 16 rival preselection nominees. Among them are several colleagues of Rhiannon’s in the “hard left” faction, including Jim Casey, the state secretary of the Fire Brigade Employees Union, together with “James Ryan, Amanda Findley, Jane Oakley and Ben Hammond”. Also in the field are Cate Faerhrmann, who filled Rhiannon’s state upper house vacancy when she moved to the Senate in 2010, before abandoning it for an unsuccessful Senate bid in 2013; and Arthur Chesterfield-Evans, who held a state upper house seat for the Australian Democrats from 1998 to 2007.

• Sean Ford of the Burnie Advocate reports that Labor’s preselection candidates for the north-western Tasmanian seat of Braddon include Justine Keay, a Devonport alderman and electorate officer to Tasmanian Opposition Leader Bryan Green, and Themba Bulle, a Burnie general practitioner. The current Liberal member, Brett Whiteley, won the seat from Labor’s Sid Sidebottom in 2013.

• Labor’s candidate to run against Adam Bandt in Melbourne is Sophie Ismail, a Victorian Education Department lawyer and member of the Socialist Left faction.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

1,250 comments on “Galaxy: 51-49 to federal Coalition in Queensland”

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  1. The 4 Corners story on bullying surgeons was very poor. If they couldn’t find more than two people to quote, they weren’t trying hard enough.

    No documents. No findings. It was easy to be fooled that it isn’t a big problem when it certainly is. I would argue that the worst bullying happens between consultants though.

    And it’s no surprise that neurosurgeons featured prominently. Cardiac and orthopedic surgeons are appalling as well.

  4. Now slam dunked with claiming the living away from home allowance whilst living in a house owned by his missus.
    Kapow.

  5. [These woman are really destroying Hockey’s credibility here]

    Did he buy some on the way into the studio? I’m not watching but the idea of Hockey being in the same neighborhood as credibility strikes me as odd.

  7. 944

    Its effects on the votes cast would be hard to predict. Would turnout drop? Would the voters decide to stop being called back to the polls by electing a different party?

  8. WWP

    Hockey had some credibility or else not even the Murdoch press could have had a week of a “fair” budget coverage.

    This is destroying that IMO.

  9. trand

    Very occasional small ones now but that is part of the expected period of diminishing strength aftershocks that follow a “biggie” .

  11. Tom @ 957

    [Its effects on the votes cast would be hard to predict. Would turnout drop? Would the voters decide to stop being called back to the polls by electing a different party?]

    Or they could change the requirements for Irish MPs having to swear allegiance to the English Queen??

  12. “@vanOnselenP: My work wouldn’t pay me a stipend to stay at a unit owned by my wife when traveling on work. NO WAY!”

  13. 961

    There has been no inclination that the allegiance requirements are likely to change. It was even taken to the European Court of Human Rights, where the status quo won.

  14. “@NMaconachie: Did @JoeHockey just announce a policy on the run re GST on sanitary products? Did he run this by Peta Credlin? :p #qanda”

  15. We are governed by a bunch of fraudsters and shysters

    [Possum
    Possum – ‏@Pollytics
    Joe doesn’t know. He pays rent to a family affair more complicated than the average mafia – then demands “DO YOU HAVE A PROBLEM WITH THAT]

  17. Tom @ 961

    [There has been no inclination that the allegiance requirements are likely to change. It was even taken to the European Court of Human Rights, where the status quo won.]

    The UK has a lot of difficulty being democratic: unelected House of Parliament: single member FPTP electorate; only MPs that support House of Windsor eligible to be elected.

    It is a Union on borrowed time.

  21. I agree with earlier comments that women have shone on tonight’s Qanda.

    Bring on a Cabinet with at least 50% women!

  22. [Possum @Pollytics · 43s 43 seconds ago
    Have you ever sat on panels for job applicants? You always get someone like Joe – and they never get the gig]

  27. An excellent point!

    [Peter van Onselen @vanOnselenP · 4m 4 minutes ago
    I don’t begrudge pollies pocketing their allowances. But stop telling the rest of us we double dip & rort when you do.]

  29. Joe totally accepts that words describing double dipping as rorting and fraud was wrong.

    After it has had its desired effect.

  32. I agree, the women of Q&A are taking the fight right up to Joe.

    And cheeky question from Jones about Joe’s rental allowance paying off his wife’s Canberra mortgage.

    Do ABC journos claim that when they travel? asks Joe.

    Yes we do, says Tony, but my wife doesn’t own the hotel.

    😀

  33. Raaraa

    [David Cameron might face backbench rebellion and ministerial resignation for pushing ahead with scraping the Human Rights Act.]

    The Scottish Parliament will pass a law applying the EU Human Rights Act to Scottish Law.

    It will be the beginning of the duelling of the Parliaments!!! what fun

  34. Peter van Onselen
    5m5 minutes ago
    Peter van Onselen ‏@vanOnselenP
    Use travel allowance to pay into a spouses property in Canberra, then they can negative gear the rent to reduce tax. Triple dipping anyone?

  35. So if the Murdoch press bother to report tonight’s Q&A it will be reported as a march of triumph for Joe Hockey.

  38. Steve777

    Thats why if you are on twitter its important to retweet this

    [@QandA: #QChoose #Spin – I think Joe Hockey was unconvincing on #Budget2015 on #QandA tonight – Just more #HockeySpin]

    If that tweet outnumbers the Hockey good one not even Murdoch can spin it.

  41. Course Joe won’t do anything about GST on sanitary products.
    The caravan will have moved on by the time of the treasurers conference and the dim witted media with their memory span of a goldfish will have totally forgotten it was ever mentioned.

  44. Guytaur – thank you. I am not on Twitter but I think that it would be a good idea to tweet that as widely as possible.

  45. Joe’s not going to remove the GST from sanitary products. He’s going to take it to the States, tell them that if the GST is removed from these products they’ll face a further cut in funding, and then blame them when they say no.

  46. One thing that Hockey has over Toxic Tony.

    At least Smoking Joe had the guts to front on Q&A.

    Abbott is a coward. Unless he can control the show, or knows that only the tame press gallery will turn up, he won’t take a risk. The kind of gutless coward we definitely don’t need to lead our country. But he can send Australian soldiers to risk their lives in Iraq in order to win votes in Australia.

    It’s hard for Abbott and this government to go any lower, but he is finding a way to get to the earth’s core.

  48. [Wow taking away GST on sanitary products will save the consumer $10 per year. Yippee!!]

    Will shaving cream be exempt from GST?

    Just joking (and I don’t use it)

  49. wonder if the broadcast ending at different times across the country would change that. of course Murdoch could spin that only lefties watch Qanda

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