A rough guide to the British election

A region-by-region beginners’ guide of what to look for in today’s/tomorrow’s British election.

This post features, or will feature, a region-by-region run through of the key constituencies and their prospects for the British election, which is being held overnight our time with the business end of the count occurring tomorrow morning. The maps identify Conservative marginals as “primary” if they would fall to Labour on the uniform national swing predicted by the polls, which broadly point to a Conservative vote of 34% (down three on the last election), Labour on 33% (up five) and the Liberal Democrats on 9% (down fourteen). “Secondary” marginals are those which might be expected to fall if Labour won a majority, which I’ve crudely drawn at the 12% point on the swing-o-meter. I’m playing Liberal Democrat seats by ear according to the betting markets in identifying them either as safe or under threat from this party or that.

I’ll be adding regions to the guide progressively as I complete them. And what better place to start than:

London

Six seats in London that would fall from Conservative to Labour on the uniform swing indicated in the polling, but no real prospects for Labour beyond that, the margin in Ilford North being 11.5%. I’ve heard it said that the swing is expected to be slightly above par in London, but an Ashford poll during the campaign had the Conservatives with a four-point lead in Croydon Central. With respect to the Liberal Democrat seats, Labour are very short-priced favourites in Brent Central and favourites in Hornsey and Wood Green. Other Liberal Democrat seats are at least endangered, but betting markets favour them in each case.

South-East

This area is ground zero for the Ukip insurgency, being home to the two seats they have won at by elections, Clacton and Rochester & Strood, and the seat being targeted by party leader Nigel Farage, Thanet South. It’s also good territory for the Greens, encompassing their solitary seat of Brighton Pavilion.

The strength of both parties is causing Labour headaches, and could certainly cost them what should otherwise have been an easy win in Thurrock, which the Conservatives won last time on the tightest of margins. Southhampton Itchen is the only seat anywhere identified as a potential Conservative gain for Labour, partly due to a retiring sitting member, but also because Ukip is believed to be biting into the Labour vote (the number for it has failed to show up on my map tomorrow, but it’s the one bordering Eastleigh to the west).

The Greens vote could also cost Labour potential gains in the two seats neighbouring Brighton Pavilion, Hove and Brighton Kemptown, although they are the favourites in both cases. Seats Labour is clearly favoured to gain from the Conservatives are Hove, Brighton Kemptown and Hastings & Rye, and the betting is fairly tight in Milton Keyes South.

The Conservatives are short-priced favourites to win Portsmouth South from the Liberal Democrats, and rated competitive but behind in Eastbourne. The markets rate the Liberal Democrats a better chance than Labour to unseat the Conservatives in Watford, for what reason I’m not sure.

South-West

This region is the greatest area of strength for the Liberal Democrats, and much depends on the extent to which they can dig in here. The Conservatives are clearly favoured to win St Austell & Newquay, Taunton Deane, Somerton & Frome, Wells, Mid Dorset & Poole and Chippenham, and it would appear to be very close in St Ives, North Cornwall, North Devon and Torbay. Labour is expected to win Bristol West from the Liberal Democrats, despite determined efforts from the Greens. The only seats the Liberal Democrats are clearly favoured to retain are Yeovil, Bath, Thornbury & Yate and Cheltenham. As for the few Conservative-Labour contests, Labour is strongly favoured to gain Plymouth, Sutton & Devonport, it’s expected to go down to the wire in South Swindon, and the Conservatives are slightly favoured in Gloucester.

Midlands/East Anglia

Moving up to the central band of England, we find rock solid Labour industrial areas and equally safe Conservative countryside, with marginal seats tending to crop out where the two blur together. Labour is very strongly favoured to win Sherwood, City of Chester, Broxtowe, North Warwickshire, Wolverhampton South West and Corby, and moderately favoured in Cannock Chase, Erewash, Amber Valley, Lincoln and Bedford. Crewe & Nantwich, Nuneaton, Halesowen & Rowley Regis, Northampton North, Ipswich and Norwich North are thought to be lineball, while Labour holds out some hope in High Peak, Cleethorpes, Loughborough, Worcester, Peterborough, Great Yarmouth.

There are only a few Liberal Democrats seats here, but one of them is Nick Clegg’s seat of Sheffield Hallam, where polling long found him struggling to hold off Labour, although more recent polling has been more favourable to him. Labour is also expected to gain Norwich South, but the Conservatives are favourites in Cambridge, and Birmingham Yardley is lineball. Next door to Birmingham Yardley, the Conservatives are short-priced favourites to unseat the Liberal Democrats in Solihull.

The North

Around Liverpool and Manchester, we see a repeat of the pattern in the Midlands where marginals seats fill the cracks between Labour-voting industrial and Conservative-voting country areas, although elsewhere in the north the distinctions are more pronounced. The betting markets favour Labour to win six seats from the Conservatives throughout the region: Wirral West, Bury North, Dewsbury, Lancaster & Fleetwood, Morecambe & Lunesdale and Carlisle. The Conservatives are rated as having the edge in South Ribble, Rossendale & Darwen, Pendle, Colne Valley, Elmet & Rothwell and Blackpool North & Cleveleys, while Keighley and Pudsey are down to the wire.

The expectation is that the Liberal Democrats will be hit hard in the north as voters react against their involvement in the coalition by returning to Labour, who are thought all but certain to gain Bradford East, Burnley, Manchester Whitington and Redcar, with the Liberal Democrats given a slight edge in Leeds North East. There are a further three seats where the Liberal Democrats are under pressure from the Conservatives, with the markets favouring the Liberal Democrats in Southport, the Conservatives in Berwick upon Tweed, and evenly split in Cheadle. The wild card constituency in the region is Bradford West, which George Galloway won from Labour for his Respect party at a by-election in March 2012. His re-election bid would appear to be a 50-50 proposition.

Wales

My casual observation of polling suggests the Conservatives have dropped a point since the last election, Labour has gained one, the Liberal Democrats are down thirteen and Plaid Cymru are up about four. Labour are short-priced favourites to take Cardiff Central from the Conservatives and Cardiff North from the Liberal Democrats, and at least some chance of further gaining Carmathen West & South Pembrokeshire, Vale of Glamorgan and Aberconwy from the Conservatives. The Liberal Democrats are also under pressure in Brecon & Radnorshire from the Conservatives and Ceredigion in Plaid Cymru, who otherwise don’t seem in danger of matching the SNP’s accomplishments.

 

Scotland

It may seem odd to be short-changing Scotland in a guide to this election, but there really isn’t all that much that needs be said: anything that isn’t held by the Scottish National Party is under threat from them. The map to the right accordingly sticks to representing the result of the 2010 election. Out of 41 seats currently held by Labour, a list of seats from The Week where they “might survive” consists of Coatbridge Chryston & Bellshill, Glasgow East, Glasgow North East, Glasgow South West, Motherwell & Wishaw and Paisley & Renfrewshire South. The SNP is clear favourite in every one of the 11 seats held by the Liberal Democrats with the exception of the border seat of Berwickshire Roxburgh & Selkirk, a three-way contest in which the Liberal Democrats might instead lose to the Conservatives.

Northern Ireland

Northern Ireland and its 18 seats are generally treated as an appendage to the real action, since it has a distinctive party system with an overlaying of sectarianism. Sixteen of those seats behaved the same way at both the 2005 and 2010 elections, with five being won by Sinn Fein, eight by the Democratic Unionist Party founded by Ian Paisley, and three by the nationalist, Labour-aligned Social Democratic and Labour Party. The Ulster Unionist Party lost its only seat at the last election after formally aligning with the Conservatives, causing its one incumbent, Lady Sylvia Hermon, to contest and hold her seat of North Down as an independent. The other change was that the non-sectarian Alliance Party won Belfast East from the Democratic Unionist Party, which is mounting a determined effort to win it back.

Author: William Bowe

William Bowe is a Perth-based election analyst and occasional teacher of political science. His blog, The Poll Bludger, has existed in one form or another since 2004, and is one of the most heavily trafficked websites on Australian politics.

501 comments on “A rough guide to the British election”

Comments Page 3 of 11
1 2 3 4 … 11

  2. Reports from pro-SNP blog:

    [It looks from the rumours emanating from the various counts that the SNP will fall short of the 58 seats forecast by the exit poll, but perhaps not by all that much. The overall battle for power throughout the UK remains on a knife-edge – the exit poll would only have to be overestimating the Tories by 15 or so seats (well within the margin of error) for the SNP to be in a pivotal position in a hung parliament. In that scenario, the Tories would still lead the government, but they would be losing votes in the Commons regularly, and it might be very tempting for them to offer the SNP substantial Home Rule in return for English Votes for English Laws – thus transforming the Tory administration into a majority government on English matters.]

    http://scotgoespop.blogspot.com.au/2015/05/if-exit-poll-is-right-britain-is.html

  6. SNP seems to be doing very well in Glasgow and “a senior Labour source”, says Murphy (SLab leader) is in “serious trouble” in Renfrewshire East 🙂

  7. 103 Not impossible Tories could win more than Labour in Scotland ie 1 seat, though unlikely. In 1951 the Tories actually won a higher percentage in Scotland than in England. Wales was and still is a Labour heartland

  9. Darn@91

    Kevin Bonham
    Posted Friday, May 8, 2015 at 9:28 am | PERMALINK
    There have been naturally increased concerns this year that either the main polls could all be wrong (a la 1992) or the exit poll could be wrong in new ways (http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/what-the-uk-exit-poll-will-tell-us/) or both!


    Kevin

    Apparently there has been another exit poll which differs markedly from the first – much more favourable to labour. It was also the most accurate last time. So it’s all very confusing.

    Yes there have been a few smaller exit polls with very different results. I’d not say that them being right last time means much since the big exit poll was very accurate, so if others were more accurate they may have just been lucky.

    Some of these early seat results coming in are terrible for Labour.

  12. Stick a fork in Red Ed …. he’s done

    Cons now heading for a slim majority according to early results

  13. Conservatives win in Battersea

    [
    The Conservatives have comprehensively triumphed in Battersea, which was a tight marginal and a key target for Labour, who needed a swing of just 6%. Instead, Tory Jane Ellison has increased her majority.

    ]

  14. There is a view that Labour over many years have sown the seeds of their own destruction in Scotland by promoting the feeling that any Tory government has no legitimacy in Scotland. And that the Scots have taken this one step further by deciding that neither does Labour have any legitimacy in Scotland.

    But now we have the itony that the Conservatives, to ward off the UKIP challenge, have pushed hard the line that the EU is illegitimate, and that “English” nationalism is of utmost importance. And soon they will be trying to put that genie back into the bottle, when UKIP campaign very hard for an “exit” vote in Cameron’s EU Referendum.

  15. Hey its way to early to make predictions about anyone. Its only 7 to Labour 3 to conservatives 1 to DUP

    So far I have seen swings to incumbents. Lib Dems collapsing Ukip rising.

  17. OC @ 108

    [Indeed, historically De Valera overcame this apparent impossibility by removing the bible from the table when he was required to take an oath to the king to enter the Free State Dail.
    There is talk in Belfast that what I suggested as a joke might actually happen]

    I did not know that. Thanks.

    Certainly the SNP would welcome SF. The DUP, shall we say, would be less than welcome.

  18. Still too early to make predictions. Remember Cameron needs to get a majority and even the exit poll does not show him doing that.

  19. 10 out of 650 seats called no way in Australia would we be calling a result without really crystal clear information.

  20. Looks like a bad night for Labour. The net swing away from the LDP is not finding it’s way to labour while some is parking itself back with the Tories. What little they are getting is probably countered by some of their vote moving to Greens & UKIP. Hard to see them winning too many seats in England now and we all know what will happen in Scotland.

  23. “@peterjukes: Peter Hennessy brilliant: “it’s envenomed” the relationship. Marr: “Cameron could be the last PM of the United Kingdom””

  26. I think the United Kingdom is probably over – if the Conservatives win by a stoking English nationalism, and the Scots respond with an SNP landslide, with labour caught in the middle as the party of unionism that no one wants in power – well, time is ticking.

  31. England is not going to be as important on the world stage. Not only not in the Union but with referendum not in the EU either.

    If the Union breaks up of course

  32. The remnant UK will traddle on – though Northern Ireland relies a lot on EU money, so the Euro referendum will be interesting. Big changes ahead.

  33. [If the union is over – what’s to be done in Northern Ireland?]

    Unification with its southern counterpart. Let Ireland be united again! 😛

    But yeah, interesting observations about the conflicting nationalism at play here.

  34. On the night of the last UK general, I hit the pubs in Portswood with a mate, a near-incomprehensible lad from the Tee-side, who had just broken up with his long-term partner. It was the most depressing drinking session of my life, by a considerable margin.

    Today might be bad for UK Labour, but not that bad.

  35. OC

    [If the union is over – what’s to be done in Northern Ireland?]

    NI is a leftover mistake of the Empire. Maybe Argentina would be interested?

  36. Labour MP David Blunkett believes the exit poll is right and that it will be a bad night for Labour. He didn’t hedge or mince words at all.

  38. I think it is now almost certain that Scotland will leave the UK. The SNP supporting a minority Labour govt may have kept them in, but the Tories’ mindset against the SNP will accelerate separation.

    So yes Cameron could be the last PM of the UK as we have know it.

  39. Shetland voted 42% SNP to 38% LD, depending on Orkney to see whether the safest LD seat in Scotland will fall to NP!!!

  40. 126 No Cameron has already said he will give Scotland more powers by implementing Smith Commission report post election, a devomax deal in return for English votes for English Laws looks highly possible between Cameron and Sturgeon. Remember Quebec nationalists won over 50 seats at the 1993 election and Quebec is still in Canada many No voters voted SNP for more powers

  42. Blunkett is right (in this case.)

    And to those who were clinging to Nate Silver’s more cautious projections, he’s now increased the Tory projection to 300, rapidly closing in on everybody else’s.

    In fact, it’s possible, judging by some of the swings that even that horror exit poll was too friendly to Labour.

  44. Simon

    [Smith Commission report post election, a devomax deal in return for English votes for English Laws looks highly possible between Cameron and Sturgeon.]

    The Smith Commission report is a load of pish. It’s recommendations are worse than the current arrangements. It is a long way from “devo-max” or “home rule” as promised.

  46. Labour absolutely smashed in the first Scottish seat declared, which they held. They barely got half the votes of the SNP.

  47. Well I think its clear now. May not be quite as bad for labour as the exit poll, but the exit poll is definitely closer. An absolute SHOCKER for the entire suite of UK pre-election pollsters.

    My suspicion is a. the interplay of English v Scottish nationalism has seen a certain apolitical nationalist voter bother to turnout (all bodes badly for the recently renewed union, btw) b. the seat-specific polling was new, and a bit of a dud c. the big shifts in UK party politics (UKIP, LibDem, SNP) have made their models wonky.

  48. Blunkett blamed the polls for the late shift, saying he believes voters looked at them and then voted for a more stable parliament.

Comments Page 3 of 11
1 2 3 4 … 11

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *