Three new polls this week, from Newspoll, Ipsos and Essential Research, all of them featuring leadership ratings as well as voting intention. As was widely noted, there was a big gap between the results from Newspoll and Ipsos, which has contributed to something of a two-track trend in polling, with one clump of results around 54-46 (Ipsos and ReachTEL) and another around 51-49 (two Newspolls and a bias-adjusted Roy Morgan). The middle ground plotted by BludgerTrack now has Labor’s two-party vote down to 51.9% – only a small change on last week, but enough to shift two seats on the seat projection, including one in New South Wales (which has done a lot of the heavy lifting in the recent Coalition poll recovery) and one in Victoria.
Leadership ratings are starting to look increasingly alarming for Bill Shorten, whose net approval has dropped a full 10% from the stasis it was in through most of 2014. Tony Abbott has now recovered to where he was before Australia Day, and while that’s still a bad position in absolute terms, the gap between himself and Shorten is rapidly narrowing. The same goes for preferred prime minister, on which Shorten’s double-digit lead after Australia Day has narrowed to about 3%.
Two polls warranting comment:
• I neglected to cover this on Tuesday, so let the record note that this week’s Essential Research result ticked a point in the Coalition’s favour on two-party preferred, putting Labor’s lead at 52-48. Primary votes were 41% for the Coalition (up one), 39% for Labor (steady), 10% for the Greens (steady) and 2% for Palmer United (steady). Also featured were monthly personal ratings, which found Tony Abbott up two on approval to 31% and down five on disapproval to 56%, Bill Shorten up one on both to 34% and 39%, and Shorten’s lead as preferred prime minister down from 39-31 to 37-33. Other questions related to asylum seekers, with 43% nominating that most were not genuine refugees versus 32% who said otherwise. However, a separate question found 49% allowing that asylum seekers arriving by boat should be allowed to stay if found to be genuine refugees. The government’s approach was deemed too tough by 22%, too soft by 27% and just right by 34%. In response to Jacqui Lambie and Glenn Lazarus leaving the Palmer United Party, 41% said those in their position should leave parliament and allow a new election to be held for their seat, with 19% favouring a new member nominated by the party and 24% saying they should be allowed to remain in parliament.
• Roy Morgan has published one of its semi-regular rounds of SMS state polling, finding the newly elected Coalition ahead by 54.5-45.5 in New South Wales, and Annastacia Palaszczuk’s newly elected Queensland government up by 52.5-47.5, after last month’s result and the weekend’s Galaxy poll both had it lineball. Labor governments are credited with leads of 54-46 in Victoria and 51-49 in South Australia, while it’s 50-50 in Western Australia. A 56-44 lead to Labor is recorded in Tasmania, which is more than a little hard to credit.
Preselection news:
• Murray Watt is set to win preselection for Labor’s Queensland Senate ticket after securing the endorsement of the Left faction at the expense of incumbent Jan McLucas, who entered parliament in 1999. Susan McDonald of the ABC reports that Watt’s position will likely be at the top of the ticket, reflecting the Left’s new-found ascendancy within the Queensland Labor organisation.
• It’s a similar story in the lower house Brisbane seat of Oxley, where Labor’s Bernie Ripoll has announced his retirement following reports he stood to lose preselection in any case to Milton Dick, Brisbane City Council opposition leader.
• Crikey’s Tips and Rumours section recently offered details on the Labor preselection in the marginal eastern Melbourne seat of Deakin, which has been won by Tony Clarke, manager of Vision Australia and unsuccessful state election candidate for Ringwood. His main opponent was Mike Symon, who won the seat for Labor in 2007 and 2010 before being unseated by current Liberal member Michael Sukkar in 2013. Symon narrowly defeated Clarke in the local party ballot, but this was overwhelmed by support for Clarke in the 50% of the vote determined by the state party’s Public Office Selection Committee. It was reported in Crikey that the Left abstained from the POSC vote, as it wished to let “the Right factions fight out between themselves”. For more on Deakin, see today’s Seat of the Week post.
[Gallipoli was a disaster, and should only ever be remembered as one.]
I agree BB.
I bought an ANZAC medallion from the lady sitting outside the local IGA store on Friday as a mark of respect for all those thousands of poor souls who were butchered in that hopelessly planned and pointless exercise, but I think all the hype is totally misplaced. IMO we should be teaching each new generation the lessons that were learned (or should have been learned) from that disaster, not trying to glorify it. The whole idea that the Australian nation was somehow founded on it is just laughable.
By all means let’s honour those who gave their lives, but like you and a few others here I will be glad when all the unnecessary added hoo ha is over for another year.
BK @ 1300
Agree. He very much has come across as a person wanting to hide and obfuscate as much as possible from the events at the time. His closing statement to the SC and the Commissioners admitted some wrong doing in his administration but it did not go far enough.
The questioning now is not putting him in a good light at all…
I think over the weekend he must have done lots of reflecting and prayer as to how he got into this predicament.
SGH
I do like the woman questioning Heenan at the moment.
My way of remembering those who have fallen is to question our re-commitments to and conduct in further wars.
Certainly in my lifetime, there has not been a single war in which we have been involved that was necessary, just, honestly explained and truly reported.
A century ago Australians and New Zealanders joined an Imperial war in the Middle East for the most worthless, mistaken and disastrously futile of reasons. We’re doing it again.
I met a few veterans of the Turkish War and the Flemish War while I was still at school. There was one antique I would occasionally sit next to when I rode the morning bus down Canning Highway. He had a ghastly, scalded face and permanently red, wet eyes. He wheezed. He did not talk so much as gasp and croak. If I felt anything about this man, it was apprehension, even fear. Still a boy, I had not yet come to terms with disfigurement.
He did not fail to warn me that how he looked and sounded were the results of his wounds; that the War had destroyed his life; that no matter what anyone ever said to me as I grew up, I should never trust those who might also call on me to fight. I was then a beautiful young example, with shiny hair and eyes, springs in my legs and arms and immaculate sleek skin.
An incongruent boy, I sat next next to pain, remorse, grief, suffocation and, to decorate the palsy, eternal mistrust.
I think I will carry his mistrust with me till I’m given a good reason not to.
Darn@1301
I have long had similar sentiments.
“@Kate_McClymont: #ICAC has issued a statement re asking parliament to pass “retrospective” legislation “as a matter of priority” b/c of High Court decision”
Bemused @ 1305
Totally agree. Gallipoli is/was long held as a classic textbook case of military incompetence and the ‘class system’
Absolute disgrace.
Bishop Heenan I think has outlined his ‘epiphany’ re the Catholic Church’s approach as a result of Her Honour’s questioning…
Have a look at the brilliant memorial our little seaside town (Population 4000) has created to commemorate the Centenary Of Anzac.
From a dream of a recently passed town legend.
https://www.facebook.com/media/set/?set=a.946710082036402.1073741833.607310435976370&type=3
It is absolutely awesome.
Steven Grant Haby@1307
I started to understand it when I did a politics subject at university and looked at the writings of Pareto and Mosca.
It’s all about nations seeming to need their founding ‘myths and legends’. If they don’t arise organically then they must be manufactured.
Mari R @randlight 43m43 minutes ago
To me, ANZAC spirit means reflecting on horror & carnage of war. Money being spent on ceremonies etc, shd be spent looking after veterans
Kakuru Take a bow
This is the tweet I put on the response is amazing, cannot keep up with the tweets retweets etc that are coming in. As I type this comment I see there is another 40 notifications in my open twitter window
Qld State Govt now under examination.
This is the really important centenary, not a battle in Turkey between two imperial armies seeking to divide up the world.
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/armenian-genocide-to-continue-to-deny-the-truth-of-this-mass-human-cruelty-is-close-to-a-criminal-lie-10188119.html
So Australia has been confirmed by the UN as THE international climate villain. The US and China, two states whose past record on climate action is less than stellar, have ridiculed our Government’s 5% target and the Direct Action program to achieve it. Let’s remember that on the current level of funding, Direct Action will only achieve one quarter to one third of the emissions cuts required to get to 5%. That 5% was supposed to be a bare minimum that would be undertaken if international partners hadn’t committed to action. the US and China have both committed to action so according to our own commitment, our target should go up to 15%-25%. This higher target has been labelled by China as ‘unfair’ given other nations are committing to much higher targets.
What the hell is Abbott going to do about this? I can’t help but wonder if he likes that he’s turning Australia into a pariah state.
http://www.theguardian.com/environment/2015/apr/20/australia-direct-action-climate-policy-challenged-us-china-brazil
JimmyDoyle
Abbott is at the behest of large companies with lots of money and he couldn’t be defending them could he.
JimmyDoyle
Wait for the squealing when countries start whacking a “carbon emissions” levy on our exports.
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-20/china-brazil-question-australias-emission-reduction-targets/6404568
Australia copping more stick over our loser climate policies.
The ALP should get the jump on Abbott and his bozo squad, and up the target from 5% to 10 or 15.
[Your final paragraph beautifully said I have condensed & just put on twitter. Hope you don’t mind]
Don’t mind at all, Mari.
[JimmyDoyle @ 1314
What the hell is Abbott going to do about this? I can’t help but wonder if he likes that he’s turning Australia into a pariah state.]
He has the martyr complex, which rarely works out well for anybody in the nearby vicinity.
[Sheikh Wesam Charkawi, a high school chaplain working in Western Sydney, said: “I work on a daily basis with the youth and what I see at the moment is severe distress regarding the new counter-terrorism laws. The Muslim community feels targeted and besieged.”
http://www.smh.com.au/comment/weekend-raids-raise-questions-about-counterterrorism-laws-20150419-1mo51z.html ]
Almost as if they are being deliberately provoked.
kakuru 1318
see my comment 1311 and the tweets are still coming in. I have seen over 70 retweets listed so far plus so many return tweets. The sad recurring theme in these tweets are the returning soldiers would not talk about their experiences. Especially Gallopili
http://journals.worldnomads.com/stowaway/photo/53/72589/Turkey/Gallipoli-Memorial-at-Anzac-Cove-by-Ataturkbr-andquotThose-heroes-that-s
BTW This says it all for me, I admit I had tears in my eyes when I read that when I was there
MTBW@1289
At the risk of sounding unpatriotic, I think I’ve reached the point where I am tired of hearing it all and have attained “ANZAC fatigue”. The straw that broke the camel’s back was Abbott using the “Spirit of ANZAC” to declare how their alliance with NZ is alive in the form of the joint mission in Iraq.
People hearing this must be thinking that we’ve learned nothing from Galipoli.
Raaraa
You don’t sound unpatriotic as all.
The advertising around this ANZAC day has been appalling.
Every advertiser has been having a go at getting people to buy their products and from my point of view it is not what the ANZACs would have wanted.
What is required is dignity and respect for those who died and I am not seeing much of that.
Goodness.. the Queensland Government is being taken to the cleaners at the RC in Rockhampton. The Department of Children’s Services is looking extremely incompetent from the answers given thus far. The lady in the witness box is not looking happy at all.
Raaraa
[At the risk of sounding unpatriotic, I think I’ve reached the point where I am tired of hearing it all and have attained “ANZAC fatigue”. ]
You don’t sound at all unpatriotic. Quite the opposite, from where I’m sitting. ANZAC fatigue is exactly how I would describe it. This “Spirit of ANZAC” stuff is superficial and confected. It’s another 3-word slogan used by grasping politicians and rent-seeking charlatans.
The First World War was Hell on Earth. Four long years of industrialised slaughter, all because some Old World empires wanted to have a pissing contest over territory.
This is the kind of “Anzac Spirit” crap I’m talking about. Camp Gallipoli.
https://www.campgallipoli.com.au/perth/
“Only $50. Hurry Last Chance!” Sick-making.
JD@1314:
Abbott is just the (current) spokesmanikin for the Corporate Capos. He has no agency (PPL anyone?). He (and the rest of Rupertariat) receive their instructions both as to what to do and how to disguise it as “fair”, “just” or (more commonly) “regrettable necessity” from the underbosses, spivs, shonk-science-pimps (and their stable of science-whores (such as Fred Singer and the rest of the Tellerite ex-physicists, “geologists” like Ian Plimer etc.) and pseudoscientific econopundits like Monckton & Lomborg) , jackel-lawyers and spin merchants in the service of same few plutocrats that run the Crony Capitalism systems here, the US, the UK and Canada.
The pathetic attempts of LNP apologists like True Blue Arsehole, Happiness & ESJ to distract from the desperate antics Sacrificial Clown Prince Toady the Last are just circuses drummed up to cover the increasingly obvious planet-raping of the Koch-suckers’ bosses.
http://media.smh.com.au/video-news/video-qld-news/aboriginal-passport-refused-at-brisbane-airport-6457927.html
Have you seen this?
[ At the risk of sounding unpatriotic, I think I’ve reached the point where I am tired of hearing it all and have attained “ANZAC fatigue”. ]
You are certainly not alone in feeling that. I understand that history always gets used and re-interpreted to support a current political agenda, its just the way of the world. And the history of Gallipoli and the WWI campaigns and their significance (which i think IS more than just as a military fwark up) is something important that should be taught and acknowledged.
But more for the lessons that can be learned and not as some emotional “we feel the grief too” session.
I cant help but feel that if we had collectively learned anything from WWI we would be a lot more reticent about sending troops into the ME at the moment. The region is currently a swamp of conflicting agendas against a background of shifting, complex and uncertain alliances between people who have a propensity to be really fwarking nasty while trying to get their own way.
The “big picture” there is almost impossible to comprehend, if it actually exists at all which i am coming to doubt. Its certainly not simple which leaves Abbott and his “goodies and baddies” approach looking laughable.
[“ANZAC fatigue”]
Brace, cause there’s another 3 years of this shit to go, and you can bet it’ll only get worse!
From the comments under that link posted upthread by mari.
[ O nation
I am Kemal Mustafa
If my thoughts and beliefs are not of this day and age
If my wisdom isn’t still the most authentic mentor
Then let my tongue cleave to the roof of my palate
I apoligize
Forget everything I said
Destroy and shatter the statues you have built of me
If freedom isn’t still the supreme value
If you’d rather have slaves stay chained
Forget everything I said
Destroy and shatter the statues you have built of me
If you see no sense in living a civilized life
If you want to be sent back in time to the middle ages and wish to put a crown on the head of a man who spits into the face of art
Forget everything I said
Destroy and shatter the statues you have built of me
If the pain of war violence was not enough
If peace at home, peace in the world has no meaning
If to be awarded requires an arms race
Forget everything I said
Destroy and shatter the statues you have built of me
If you miss the fez and the veil and prefer to light the night
If you’re still hoping to find healing from a dervish, a sheik or an amulet
Forget everything I said
Destroy and shatter the statues you have built of me
If you say women should not be equal to men and should be covered in black sheets to flee from the wrath of bigots
If you say you don’t want to see our women and daughters to get an education just because you believe this is their fate
Forget everything I said
Destroy and shatter the statues you have built of me
If freedom and democracy is too much for you to handle
If you have a longing for the sultan of the Sultanate and are still not able to determine the significance of being a nation
Be servants, stay on the path of religion and wait for şeyhülislam to lay down the law for you
Forget everything I said
Destroy and shatter the statues you have built of me
And LEAVE ME ALONE…
-Musafa Kemal Atatürk
Translation By Alev Nathalie Doruk
Alev Nathalie Doruk Jun 13, 2013 7:20 AM ]
While i am sure that the man was far from perfect, (no one who gets to the top of the pile to lead a nation ever is ) he certainly had some things to say that are still worth listening to.
kakaru
[https://www.campgallipoli.com.au/perth/]
I know I’m repetitive but another FMD.
Ctar
FMD is the only valid response to a lot of what is going on at the moment.
The Victoria Police in their black formal uniforms look like the work for Darth Vader or even worse.
[ kakaru
https://www.campgallipoli.com.au/perth/ ]
That is just so wrong. 🙁
[North Korea’s state-run media says leader Kim Jong-un has climbed the country’s highest mountain, the 2,750-metre Mount Paektu.]
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-20/kim-jong-un-climbs-north-korea-highest-mountain-state-media/6404608
The photography must have been taken from angles that didn’t show the helicopters.
@joshgnosis: Turnbull rejects suggestions that Netflix capacity issues prove need for full fibre NBN http://t.co/lxYXt1W7Qx
“@ABCNews24: .@TonyAbbottMHR will address media shortly from a farewell event for WWI widows leaving for #Gallipoli. Watch http://t.co/FlRWJAIwAW”
Does anybody seriously believe this crap?
http://www.abc.net.au/news/2015-04-20/unprecedented-levels-of-security-on-anzac-day-in-melbourne/6406504
How many hundreds of Parliamentary Police did it take to arrest one confused teenager this time?
http://www.theguardian.com/science/2015/apr/19/clockmaker-john-harrison-vindicated-250-years-absurd-claims?CMP=soc_568
guytaur
I’ve just got in. I’m so glad there are others on PB who don’t want any more sentimental schmaltz from Abbott. And the ABC promos are quite over-the-top. I vow not to watch any of it.
Re JD @1314: What the hell is Abbott going to do about this?
Nothing, except possibly shoot the messanger.
lizzie
As Mari has pointed out not just us at PB. Also a lot on twitter as well.
http://www.abc.net.au/7.30/content/2013/s3944397.htm
I think this quote hits home, from former army officer James Brown, from an interview last year…
“We’re spending three times as much money on ANZAC Day ceremonies over the next four years as we are on the problem of mental health for those soldiers coming back with post-traumatic stress disorder.
“And for me, I can’t understand it. If we really believe what we say about ANZAC, then why aren’t we spending that money looking after the soldiers right here and now?”
macca
Posted Monday, April 20, 2015 at 2:48 pm | PERMALINK
From the comments under that link posted upthread by mari.
O nation
I am Kemal Mustafa
Thank you there were some wonderful comments. Ataturk dragged a backward nation up through sheer magnetism , he abolished the Fez advanced women’s rights ie from being a chattel to a person.
Rightfully he is revered in Turkey
Let me join the chorus in decrying the commercialisation of Anzac Day.
My 90yo mum doesn’t get wound up about much but we had a long chat about this the other day. And she was cross.
She was one of the first young women hired to join the WA state Treasury to replace men going to war. She saw plenty leave, never to return.
She saw those who returned that were never quite the same as before.
She used the watch the parade on TV, often recognising men she had known as they marched with their units. Then she stopped watching as the March became a shuffle and now there are hardly any of her generation left. And they certainly not marching.
She does t need commemorative coins, souvenir hats or newspaper magazines to remember.
Or to see politicians draping themselves in the flag.
Keating had the right idea about Gallipoli. Asked if he had been there he told Red Kerry: Never have, never will.
lizzie
[And the ABC promos are quite over-the-top. ]
We’ve been putting up with them since the day after Australia Day.
kakaru @1345
An excellent quote and ain’t that the truth.
Send them away to get fired at but don’t care about their mental health issues – they have to fight for them as well.
rossmcg@1547
A great post from you as well. Hug your Mum often and listen to her stories.